Eurusdtrade
EURUSD ANALSYSIS FOR 29/11/2023In this video, I talked about eurusd (the only pair I trade). I made a full break down from the weekly timeframe all the way down to the daily timeframe. I talked about what the market had done and what I expect the market to do over the next few hours. I also talked about the levels I'm going to be watching out for before I take a trade on the pair. I'm sure you're going to enjoy this video so do not forget to give me a boost, and follow.
EUR/USD is trending downEUR/USD extended its advance on Tuesday, clearing Fibonacci resistance at 1.0960 and rising to its best mark in more than three months. If the pair holds onto recent gains and establishes a support base near 1.0960, there's a possibility of an upward push towards 1.1080 following a period of consolidation. Should bullish momentum persist, attention could turn to the 2023 highs near 1.1275.
In case of a downward shift from current levels, it is imperative to closely monitor price action around 1.0960, bearing in mind that a breach of this technical zone could send the exchange rate towards 1.0840. On further weakness, we could witness a retreat towards the 200-day simple moving average, located slightly above confluence support near 1.0760.
Morgan Stanley and BofA’s 2024 EUR/USD Predictions Morgan Stanely has released what they call their top trade for 2024, and it is the exact opposite of Bank of America’s call.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley think selling EUR/USD around the current level of 1.10 is the trade to make next year, with a target for the pair reaching parity by the end of the first quarter of 2024. This outlook relies on sustained economic performance of the US. They also believe that technical recessions in the eurozone, Sweden, and the UK are expected to lead their respective central banks to initiate rate cuts in the second quarter of 2024. Selling Swedish krone (which has become a top ten traded currency recently) and the British pound might also be options for 2024 too, but this was not explicitly stated by the bank.
On the other hand, Bank of America has suggested that shorting the USD is the trade to make, particularly against the Euro and South African Rand. BofA sees the potential falling interest rate in the eurozone increasing the attractiveness of euro-based stocks and other investments.
EURUSD → Immediately to the upside comes 1.1000FX:EURUSD advances further and reaches new monthly highs in the 1.0980/85 band on Tuesday.
The continuation of the upward bias could see the pair challenging the psychological threshold of 1.1000. Beyond this level comes the August top of 1.1064 (August 10).
So far, while above the significant 200-day SMA, today at 1.0812, the pair’s outlook should remain constructive.
💡 EURUSD: Will it maintain its position?➡️ Currency traders observed the Euro maintaining its bullish position against the US Dollar today, persistently aiming for the 1.1000 mark and finding support at 1.0900. However, the Euro faced a decline against the British Pound, reaching a two-week low.
➡️ Changes in investor sentiment can be attributed to evolving expectations regarding the monetary policy of the European Central Bank. The anticipated ECB rate cut, initially projected for April, has been pushed back to June, with the expected cut now scaled down to 83 basis points.
While the forex markets showed relative stability last week, upcoming inflation data from both the Eurozone and the United States in the following week is anticipated to play a pivotal role in determining the trajectory of currency movements. Traders are advised to closely track these reports for insights into potential future central bank actions and their likely impact on currency valuations.
EURUSD: Low valuations of euro zone bank stocks could hamper creThe European Central Bank (ECB) on Monday expressed concern about the low valuations of euro zone bank stocks, suggesting it could have a negative impact on future credit growth. Hybrid by imposing strict conditions on the borrower. Bank profits have increased significantly this year, thanks in part to higher net interest income due to higher ECB rates, but stock market valuations have not kept pace. Many banks appear to be trading at a discount to fundamentals.
The ECB has pointed out that this could lead to financial system instability in the long run. Banks that are undervalued by investors may struggle to raise new capital when they need it, the ECB said in its financial stability review report.
The central bank continued to insist that weak valuations directly lead to tighter financing conditions for the real economy. We find that banks' increased exposure to corporate credit risk and the perception of bank stocks as value stocks are major contributors to valuation stagnation.
However, the ECB also noted that these fundamentals do not fully explain current valuations. Increased uncertainty regarding future payments to shareholders may also be a factor. Meanwhile, some euro zone governments have introduced banking taxes and the ECB is considering raising interest-free reserve requirements, which could lead to lower revenues. The ECB argues that the tax risk on dividend income sources impacts valuations more than on growth stocks, whose cash flows are expected to be reinvested internally and returned to investors in the future. Far away.
EURUSD is trending downThe dollar index DXY, a measure of the greenback against a basket of currencies, was last at 103.11, its lowest since Aug. 31. The dollar was track for a loss of more than 3% in November, its worst performance in a year.
Market expectation that the Fed's rate increase cycle has finally come to an end has also put downward pressure on the greenback. U.S. rate futures showed about a 25% chance that the Fed could begin cutting rates as early as March and increasing to nearly 45% by May, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"Slowing growth momentum, peak rates, rate cuts next year, and unwinding of long positioning: it's the dynamic feeding a weaker U.S. dollar and driving the entire currency complex," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
"Anything that brings that trend into question will change the outlook; however, the bar for that to happen is high," he added, saying the dollar likely has more room to fall.
Traders are now eyeing U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation in the world's largest economy is slowing.
PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and OPEC+ decision.
After delaying its policy meeting to this Thursday, OPEC+ is looking at deepening oil production cuts, according to an OPEC+ source.
EURUSD → Next on the upside comes 1.1000FX:EURUSD climbs for the third session in a row and revisits the 1.0960 zone, or monthly highs, on Monday.
The continuation of the upward bias could see the psychological threshold of 1.1000 revisited ahead of the August top of 1.1064 (August 10).
So far, while above the significant 200-day SMA, today at 1.0810, the pair’s outlook should remain constructive.
EUR/USD to advance higher.FX:EURUSD Euro has broken above a 4h time frame resistance level at 1.0880 and is expected to go towards at least to 1.09650, and possibly higher in bullish scenario.
In bearish scenario, it gets rejected, and goes below our 4h structure at 1.0880. Which is also very possible, since we still have a strong imbalance below from the previous news impact.
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EURUSD - W1\H4EURUSD
W1 - The price has corrected by 60% from the first wave, which may lead to the potential formation of the 3rd wave.
D1 - The price moves in a range, for sales, confirmation is required to open positions. It will be possible to consider it after fixation and retest behind the trend line.
H4 - If you are considering buying, you can buy from the lower border with the potential to break through the upper border. To exit purchases and consider selling, it is better to wait until it is fixed behind the trend line and the formation of a 3-wave structure, which will give the opportunity to enter at the beginning of the 3rd wave.
What can you expect?
You can consider entering from the level ~1.08873 (wait for the level to be fixed, the best option would be to wait for a retest after fixation) with further movement to the target 1.06563. Cancellation of the idea so as not to take increased risk on the idea levels beyond the end of the 2nd wave or 1st - 1.09911 - 1.10664
Short
Targets 1.08233 - 1.07754 - 1.07179 - 1.06563
EURUSD tends to decrease when it encounters resistanceElsewhere, the euro slipped 0.03% to $1.0930, but did not stray far from an over three-month peak of $1.09655 hit last week.
A survey out last week showed the downturn in euro zone business activity eased in November but remained broadbased, suggesting the bloc's economy will contract again this quarter as consumers continue to rein in spending.
EURUSD → Drop to 1.05? or Blast to 1.10? Lets Make it Clear.EURUSD is pushing toward the resistance zone which gives the bulls some tingly senses to take profit and run the price back to the downside. Will the Dollar show strength this week and keep EURUSD from breaking resistance?
How do we trade this?
The price is currently in a trading range between 1.05000 and 1.10000 and we're getting close to the resistance zone where the Weekly 200EMA resides. If you're not already in a trade, it's worth waiting to see what happens at the resistance zone. A bear signal bar closing on or near its low below the resistance line is a good indicator that the price will fail to rise above again and would be a reasonable short. Stop loss above the resistance zone top and take profit just above the Support Zone around 1.05000. The RSI is near 70.00, a weak indicator on its own, but supports the rest of the analysis for a soon-to-come short.
If the price finds its way above the resistance lines and closes a bull candle on or near its high, it would be reasonable to long with a protective stop just below the resistance zone. Target prices as high as 1.12500.
Key Takeaways
1. Trading Range after Bull Run, Bias to Long.
2. Near the Resistance Zone, Look for a Reversal Signal.
3. If Shorting, Watch the 200EMA for Support.
4. The Dollar Index may fall more, wait for the bottom.
5. RSI near 70.00, Bias to Short.
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
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💡 EURUSD: Unpredictable➡️ EURUSD recently approached the support zone near 1.0890 and experienced a rebound. However, there are currently no clear buy signals.
➡️ On the shorter timeframes, the upward trend hasn't materialized yet, making it challenging for us to initiate buy positions. Therefore, it's prudent to adopt a cautious approach and observe further price action. The likelihood of the market continuing its downward trajectory remains significant. For those engaged in short-term trading, selling could be considered around the resistance area near 1.0925.
It's essential to pay close attention to price movements. If the price convincingly surpasses the mentioned zone with strong momentum and fails to generate any sell signals, it would be wise to stay on the sidelines.
EURUSD Long Term Sell Trading IdeaHello Traders
In This Chart EURUSD DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today EURUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUAD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Swings Get Swept- Wicks are CluesThis is the 4hr TF of EURUSD. The Swing Low has been established. Wicks are nothing more then imbalances and typically get filled. By leveraging the bias of the asset you have a very high probability of entering a great trade. The DXY is heavy bearish which means US Base pairs are bullish. The Quarters Theory dictates that price trades within 000 - 250 - 500 - 000. Those are awesome target areas on any asset. Tomorrow is a holiday this is an aggressive play. As always never over leverage. Trust your trade set up. Have a great holiday!
EURUSD: Potential to turn BEARISH!Thd D1 swing structure is bearish, having made a bearish BOS externally. Internally, price is bullish, having successive iBOSs to achieve the pullback to an internal LQ target.
Price has reached a premium supply zone, a high probability location to look for a shift
in the market from bullish to bearish, starting the next bear leg to make the HTF LL.
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EURUSD did indeed turn bearish....Price has dropped over 100 pips from the poi. I believe it is heading to the sell side LQ for
the raid @1.0825 low, and potentially further into the FVG and discount prices.
Again, the pullback may have started, but it is not confirmed until price has a substantial
BOS (break of structure). For me, that would be a daily candle close below the SSl level.
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