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Eurusdoutlook

Rising from the Ashes: EURO's Path to RecoveryGood day traders, Trust we all profited from the FOMC report of yesterday. Please take a moment to go through my outlook and expectation on Euro in the coming weeks into the new year. Overview EUR/USD appears to be rebounding after a sharp decline triggered by yesterday's FOMC report, where the FED delivered a hawkish 25bps cut, which drove higher market-driven borrowing costs, a stronger dollar and a sharp drop in stocks. From the start of the week EURUSD had previously been consolidating, during which weak buyers (traders) were caught off guard by a false breakout to the upside, reaching a weekly high of 1.05342 on Tuesday. Idea The subsequent sell-off drove the pair to a four-week low of 1.03439, just above the November 22nd low of 1.03324. This drop aligns with a key Fibonacci reversal pattern under Elliott Wave theory, suggesting the potential for a significant rally. If this pattern holds, EUR/USD could gain approximately 400 pips (1.08150) in the coming weeks, with the recovery likely extending into the new year. Conclusion The recent low is expected to act as a firm support level, and a breach of the November low appears unlikely. This anticipated rally could mark the beginning of a period of recovery and optimism for the euro. Cheers! Merry Christmas and Happy New Year in advance.
Long
by Samuel124
EUR/USD: Poised for a Reversal?On November 23, FOREXCOM:EURUSD broke below the critical 1.05 support zone, reaching a low of 1.0336. However, the pair quickly reversed course and has since been trading in a range between 1.0450 and 1.06. A closer look at the price action suggests the pair has established a strong floor and is awaiting a catalyst for an upward reversal. That catalyst could very well come today, with the anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut and subsequent press conference. Given the accumulated market tension, an accelerated move to the upside seems likely. Key Levels to Watch : Support: Any dips below 1.05 should be viewed as buying opportunities, with the potential for a rebound. Resistance: A target around 1.0750 appears realistic in the current context. Invalidation Level: If the price falls back below 1.04, this bullish scenario would be negated.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - SELL below 1.0505 1.0480EURUSD H1 17/12/2024 - Bearish pressure by macroeconomic fundamentals and a dovish ECB outlook Technical Analysis Summary D1 (Daily Chart) Trend: Bearish with price trading well below the 200-SMA and stuck below the 20-EMA at 1.0540. Indicators: RSI: At 40.64, indicating bearish momentum and approaching oversold conditions. Stochastic: Bearish crossover below 40, showing potential for further downside. MACD: Negative histogram and signal line, confirming a bearish outlook. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0530 (20-EMA), 1.0560 (near-term swing high). Support: 1.0480, 1.0460, and a broader target of 1.0435. H4 (4-Hour Chart) Trend: Consolidation in a bearish channel, with price unable to break above the 50-SMA. Indicators: RSI: At 42.81, reflecting bearish momentum. Stochastic: Bearish crossover heading down towards oversold levels. MACD: Bearish histogram, confirming bearish continuation. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0535 (50-SMA). Support: 1.0485, 1.0460. H1 (Hourly Chart) Trend: Bearish, with price below the Ichimoku cloud, 50-SMA, and 200-SMA. Bearish momentum is strong after a recent failed attempt to recover. Indicators: RSI: At 38.13, signaling bearish momentum below 40. Stochastic: Near 10, indicating oversold conditions and suggesting a potential short-term pullback. MACD: Bearish histogram with a downward signal line. ATR: At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility. Key Levels: Resistance: 1.0505 (minor), 1.0530 (20-EMA). Support: 1.0485, 1.0460, 1.0435. M30 (30-Minute Chart) Trend: Downtrend with price consolidating near support at 1.0485. Indicators: RSI: At 34.85, approaching oversold conditions. Stochastic: At 12, suggesting a minor pullback may occur before further declines. MACD: Negative momentum remains intact. Correlated Financial Instruments US Dollar Index (DXY): DXY remains firm above 106, supporting a bearish EUR/USD outlook. USD strength continues as inflation data backs expectations of steady Fed policy. Gold (XAU/USD): Gold remains under pressure, further confirming USD strength. Trade Plan for EUR/USD H1 Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation on Retracement Rationale: Given the clear bearish momentum and inability to break key resistance levels, a retracement toward resistance offers a short-selling opportunity. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0505–1.0510 (near minor resistance). Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above the 20-EMA on H1). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0485. TP2: 1.0460. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 2: Breakout Short Below 1.0485 Rationale: A clean break below 1.0485 support will confirm a bearish continuation towards the next key levels. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout). Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above breakout resistance). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0460. TP2: 1.0435. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 3: Intraday Scalping Short (M30–H1 Levels) Rationale: If a short-term pullback occurs, use M30 chart resistance as an entry. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0500 (psychological level). Stop-Loss: 1.0515. Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0485. TP2: 1.0475. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
Short
by napoleon182
9
Weekly Forex Forecast: EURUSD Is Bearish. Wait For SELLS!This forecast is for the week of Dec. 16 - 20th. EURUSD has formed a bearish breakout of the consolidation. Clearly the momentum is to the downside. WIll we see this continue into next week? Yessir! Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Short
by RT_Money
EUR/USD Shorts from 1.05600 back downThis week, my analysis for EUR/USD aligns closely with GBP/USD, as both pairs have exhibited bearish momentum. However, there are subtle differences in price action as we approach the final month of the year. A key focus is the 4-hour supply zone around 1.05600, which initiated a break of structure to the downside. Once price reaches this area, I’ll look for redistribution on the lower timeframes to confirm a potential sell. If the price moves higher, the 2-hour supply zone just above offers an even better opportunity for shorts. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: - Liquidity Below: Significant downside liquidity remains untapped. - Bearish Momentum: The pair has been bearish for the past two weeks. - Break of Structure: Key levels have broken to the downside on the higher timeframe. - DXY Correlation: The dollar index (DXY) supports this bearish setup. - Key Supply Zone: The 4-hour supply zone caused the initial bearish move. Note: If price mitigates the 5-hour demand zone, I may consider a counter-trend buy to take price back up toward the supply zone. However, if this demand zone fails, it will trigger another break of structure (BOS), prompting me to identify a new supply zone for potential shorts. Stay disciplined and have a strong trading week—let’s close Q4 on a high note!
Short
by Hassan_fx
EURUSD - HEADING NORTH ON RECOVERYTeam, last 2-3 days, we have been successfully doing well on the EURUSD, long position Yesterday was a roller-coaster day; we got 3 times rewards. all target hit Today, we are entry-long at Time to go long Eurusd at 1.04700-30 - STOP LOSS at 104385 Target 1 - 1.04800-30 Target 2 - 1.04950-65 Target 3 - 1.05115-45 Once it hits the first target, take some partial and bring stop loss to BE Note: There will be a sideways effect for EURUSD before it goes up! Three times it has been fast up and down. When I enter the office, I will draw a chart of what we expect from them.
Long
by ActiveTraderRoom
EURUSD H1 12/12/2024 - Bearish Momentum and key supports testedMulti-Timeframe Analysis D1 (Daily Chart) Trend: Strong bearish trend with price below the 200 SMA and inside the Ichimoku cloud. The overall bias remains bearish. Indicators: RSI: At 40, close to oversold territory but still with room for downside continuation. Stochastic: Near the mid-level (54), indicating a neutral stance with potential for further downside. MACD: Below the signal line, signaling bearish momentum. Key Levels: Support: 1.0480, 1.0450. Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0540. H4 (4-Hour Chart) Trend: Bearish consolidation, with price below the 200 SMA and hugging the lower Bollinger Band. Indicators: RSI: At 42, showing weak momentum but not yet oversold. Stochastic: 28, nearing oversold levels. MACD: Below the signal line with bearish momentum but showing a flattening histogram, suggesting potential consolidation. Key Levels: Support: 1.0485, 1.0460. Resistance: 1.0515, 1.0540. H1 (Hourly Chart) Trend: Downtrend remains intact with price trading below all major moving averages and below the Ichimoku cloud. Indicators: RSI: At 45, confirming weak bearish momentum. Stochastic: 23, indicating oversold conditions and possible pullback. MACD: Slightly bearish, with price momentum losing steam. ATR (14): At 10 pips, reflecting moderate volatility. Key Levels: Support: 1.0485, 1.0460. Resistance: 1.0510, 1.0535. M30 (30-Minute Chart) Trend: Bearish but consolidating at key support levels near 1.0490. Indicators: RSI: At 43, close to oversold. Stochastic: 20, signaling a possible short-term pullback. MACD: Flat, reflecting indecision. Correlated Financial Instruments DXY (US Dollar Index): Continues to rise above 106.50, confirming USD strength and adding downward pressure on EUR/USD. Gold (XAU/USD): Declining due to USD strength, supporting a bearish bias for EUR/USD. Trade Plan for EUR/USD (H1) Trade Setup 1: Bearish Continuation After Pullback Rationale: EUR/USD remains in a downtrend, and any retracement to key resistance levels provides a selling opportunity. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0510–1.0515 (on a retracement). Stop-Loss: 1.0535 (above recent resistance). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0485. TP2: 1.0460. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 2: Aggressive Breakout Short Rationale: A break below 1.0485 confirms bearish continuation toward lower support levels. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0480 (on breakout). Stop-Loss: 1.0505 (above the breakout level). Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0460. TP2: 1.0435. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:2. Trade Setup 3: Short-Term Scalping (Intraday Pullback to Resistance) Rationale: A minor retracement to intraday resistance levels could offer a short-term short trade with reduced risk. Trade Details: Entry Price: 1.0505. Stop-Loss: 1.0520. Take-Profit Levels: TP1: 1.0490. TP2: 1.0480. Risk/Reward Ratio: ~1:1.5.
Short
by napoleon182
Is EurUsd's correction over?In my previous posts about EUR/USD, I discussed the potential for an upside correction following the break below the 1.05 support level, the drop to 1.0330, and the subsequent reversal. I suggested that this upward movement could potentially push the price toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. Indeed, the pair did rise, reaching an intraday high of 1.0628 during Friday's NFP event. However, the day ended with a downside move, leaving a red candle with a long wick on the daily chart. The medium-term trend for EUR/USD remains bearish. This, combined with the overlapping structure from the recent low, clearly indicates that we are not witnessing the start of a bullish trend but rather a corrective phase. The key question now is whether this correction has concluded. To confirm, we would need to see a break back below the 1.05 level. With this in mind, if the pair revisits Friday's high, I plan to sell, placing a stop loss above 1.07 and targeting the 1.0450 support level.
by Mihai_Iacob
7
1211 Waiting for ECB to confirm a long term directionHello traders, Whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates by 50 basis points depends on several factors, including current economic data, inflation outlook, market expectations, and policymakers' concerns about economic growth and financial stability. 1. Market Expectations and Current Economic Background - According to LSEG Refinitiv data, the market expects an 81% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the expectation for a 50 basis point cut is only 19%. This indicates that the market generally believes the ECB is more inclined towards a moderate rate cut rather than taking more aggressive measures. - The main challenges facing the European economy currently include slowing economic growth, easing inflation pressures, and fluctuations in energy prices. These factors may prompt the ECB to take action to support economic recovery, but a 50 basis point cut may be seen as too aggressive, especially when inflation has not fully returned to target. 2. Possibility of a 50 Basis Point Cut If the ECB chooses to cut rates by 50 basis points, it would be a bold move that exceeds market expectations, potentially indicating the following: - The ECB's concerns about economic growth are greater than the general market perception, suggesting a need for more substantial easing measures to stimulate the economy. - By implementing a larger rate cut, the ECB may be trying to send a strong signal to the market, demonstrating its commitment to supporting the economy. - However, such a move could also provoke negative market reactions, such as increased volatility in bond yields or further pressure on the euro exchange rate. 3. More Likely Scenario: A 25 Basis Point Cut - Historically, the ECB tends to adjust its policies gradually to avoid causing excessive disruption to the market. - A 25 basis point cut aligns with market expectations and can smoothly convey policy intentions while retaining flexibility for future adjustments. 4. **My View** - The likelihood of a 25 basis point cut is significantly higher, as it aligns with market expectations and avoids unnecessary volatility in financial markets. - If the ECB opts for a 50 basis point cut, it may indicate a more pessimistic assessment of recession risks, but this choice could also entail greater policy risks. Technically, EURUSD is testing the weekly support and moving beneath the EMAs. As long as it breaking through the support, a long-term bearish trend for EURUSD is pretty sure! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
Short
by FUNTRADER-Vera
EUR/USD Short term short to long idea pending...This week, my focus for EUR/USD is on the supply zone near 1.05800. I anticipate a reaction from this level, making it a key area for potential sells at the start of the week. Following this initial move, I expect a bullish rally to develop midweek. If the price drops to 1.05200, aligning with my 11-hour demand zone, I’ll shift my focus to potential buys. After receiving valid lower-timeframe confirmations, I plan to target the nearest liquidity pool to the upside as the price resumes its bullish trend. Confluences for EUR/USD Sells: Shift in Market Character: Price has shown signs of a downside reversal, suggesting a potential sell-off. Unmitigated Supply Zone: A clean 2-hour supply zone remains untapped. Liquidity Below: There’s significant liquidity to the downside that price may target. Trend Recalibration: Despite the overall bullish trend, a pullback is necessary for continuation. Note: If the supply zone at 1.05800 fails to hold, it will further confirm bullish momentum. In this case, I’ll wait for a nearby demand zone to form, providing an opportunity to capitalize on the move to the upside. Patience will be key in this scenario.
Short
by Hassan_fx
Weekly Forex Forecast: EURUSD May Pullback This Week!EUR Futures has printed a bullish Inside Bar on the Weekly TF. This potentially shows a shift in the market from a bearish to bullish bias. A pullback may be starting. This makes sense, as price has traded through the Swing Low, and a significant retracement is a bit overdue. Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME:6E1!Long
by RT_Money
2
Bullish Catalysts for EUR/USDTechnical Analysis Monthly Chart: The weakening of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) creates a favorable environment for bullish movements in EUR/USD. On the monthly chart, the euro is positioned near a significant support zone that aligns with a strong buying area. With the dollar's liquidity grab above 107.348 signaling further downside potential, EUR/USD is well-positioned for upward momentum. Daily Chart: The daily chart confirms a strong bullish structure, with higher highs and higher lows indicating sustained upward pressure. The recent weakness in the DXY aligns with this bullish trend, reinforcing the potential for continued euro strength. This week's price action suggests buyers remain firmly in control, and the technical setup supports a move toward higher targets. Fundamental Analysis Impact of the U.S. Dollar Weakness: The euro stands to benefit significantly from the current bearish outlook on the DXY. With the Federal Reserve showing hesitancy toward further rate cuts due to inflation concerns and strong labor market conditions, short-term volatility is likely. However, any signs of labor market weakening or inflation stability could lead to aggressive rate cuts, further weakening the dollar and supporting EUR/USD upside. Key Catalysts: This upcoming week, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and unemployment rate data are expected to provide critical directional cues: Expected Increase in Unemployment: If the unemployment rate increases as forecasted, this would add downward pressure on the DXY, fueling strong upside potential for EUR/USD. Nonfarm Payroll Volatility: Regardless of the outcome, NFP data typically injects significant volatility into the market. Even in scenarios where unemployment data does not meet expectations, the euro could still reach key targets due to the strong technical bullish structure and high demand at monthly zones. Summary and Outlook Technical and Fundamental Alignment: EUR/USD is in a prime position for further upside given: The bearish outlook on the DXY, signaling continued weakness in the U.S. Dollar. The bullish structure on the EUR/USD daily chart, which supports continued buying pressure. Key catalysts this week, including unemployment and NFP data, which are likely to favor euro strength under expected scenarios. Key Factors to Monitor: The actual results of unemployment and payroll data. Fed commentary and market sentiment on potential rate adjustments. Any unexpected geopolitical or macroeconomic developments affecting the eurozone or the U.S. Price Expectations: Short-Term Target: The bullish structure supports a move toward a significant monthly resistance zone where strong buy-side liquidity resides. Medium-to-Long-Term Target: If dollar weakness persists and unemployment increases, EUR/USD could see a strong bullish move extending beyond this resistance, possibly forming new highs. With the DXY weakening and structural alignment in favor of the euro, buying EUR/USD remains a favorable strategy this week, supported by both technical and fundamental factors.
Long
by Wiiso
EurUsd- Buy under 1.05 In last week's analysis, I mentioned that EUR/USD could reverse to the upside, with the 1.0330 zone likely marking a short-term bottom. As anticipated, the pair has climbed back above the 1.05 support level, indicating a false breakout. I still expect this correction to extend further, with the pair potentially reaching the 1.0670 resistance level. In conclusion, any dips below 1.05 should be seen as buying opportunities, targeting the aforementioned resistance level.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
4
EurUsd could correct higher (1.0670 target)The drop in EUR/USD has been remarkable, with the pair even breaking below the critical 1.0500 technical and psychological level. On Friday, it even spiked to a low of 1.0330. However, following this sharp decline, the pair opened on Monday with a gap up, which has since been filled, potentially signaling the beginning of a correction. Confirmation of a new bullish leg requires a break back above 1.0515. A daily close above this level could pave the way for a rise toward the 1.0670 resistance zone. As long as Friday's low remains intact, the outlook remains bullish. Dips near the 1.0400 level could present attractive buying opportunities, offering a favorable risk-to-reward ratio.
Long
by Mihai_Iacob
12
EURUSD Raid On Liquidity? Contemplating the Next Move!👀👉 EURUSD remains in a strong downtrend, evident on the daily and 4-hour charts. Currently, we’re seeing an aggressive pullback on the 4-hour timeframe. I’m eyeing a short entry but holding off early in the week—waiting to see how price develops from the London session into the New York open. In this video, we break down market structure, price action, and blend Wyckoff & ICT concepts in an easy-to-understand way. 🚨 Not financial advice. 📉✅
Short
by fxtraderanthony
1