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EURUSD is trending downSupport for lower EUR/USD remains in early 4Q but becomes less clear in November and December, when seasonality indicates a weak USD and positive risk appetite, SEB Research analysts say in a note. "However, in October, the relative rate spread tends to be supportive of a lower EUR/USD," they say. Current macroeconomic trends also support a stronger USD, with the soft-landing narrative and "higher for longer" monetary policy stance having a strong hold on markets, they say. The euro trades 0.1% lower at $1.0538.
Short
by FalCol_TradingMaster
EURUSD has an uptrendEURUSD on Monday fell by -0.79% and matched last Thursday’s 8-3/4 month low. The euro was under pressure Monday after the 10-year T-note yield climbed to a 16-year high, which strengthened the dollar’s interest rate differentials versus the euro. Monday’s comments from ECB Vice President Guindos supported the euro when he said interest rates at their current levels will help bring down inflation to the ECB's 2% target and that talk of rate cuts by the ECB is premature. Monday’s Eurozone economic news was bullish for the euro after the Eurozone Aug unemployment rate fell -0.1 to match the record low of 6.4%, right on expectations. OANDA:EURUSD BUY 1.0459 - 1.0469 🔽🔽 ✔️TP: 1.0500 ❌SL: 1.0429
Long
by FalCol_TradingMaster
EURUSD is trending downIn the wider currency market, the euro EURUSD lost 0.07% to $1.0565, after ending the previous quarter with a 3% fall, its worst performance in a year. The Euro fell sharply after breaking the key support level of 1.0580. The currency touched a low of 1.0488 and rebounded from there. Resistance levels for the Euro are at 1.06 and then in the 1.0670-1.0700 zone. If the recent recovery momentum is maintained, the Euro could rebound to the 1.06-1.07 mark. However, the possibility of an increase beyond 1.07 is unlikely. The short-term outlook remains bearish. Therefore, we can expect the Euro to fall to 1.04 next week, or to rise to 1.06-1.07 and then adjust back to 1.04. OANDA:EURUSD SELL 1.0568 - 1.0578 🔽🔽 ✔️ TP: 1.0530 ❌ SL: 1.0600
Short
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
EURUSD | Strong US Dollar, But Why?The value of the US dollar continues to rise Today on September 30, one Euro cost only $1.0573 and markets have finally come to the realization that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to fight inflation till it achieves its target goals, and, to do so, it will even raise its policy rate of interest one..or, possibly two...more times! even Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, is now saying that interest rates could hit 7.0 percent. "Are you prepared?" Dimon asks It seems as if market participants have doubted Fed Chairman Jay Powell ever since the Federal Reserve began to raise its policy rate of interest in the middle of March 2022.The underlying belief was that Mr. Powell and the Fed would "back off," not wanting to overdue a tight monetary policy and cause financial distress. So, the value of the U.S. dollar remained softer than many expected and the US stock market stayed stronger than many expected.But, seemingly, that time has changed. When did market attitudes change? Let's say toward the end of July 2023. That is, market participants only became "believers" after 16 months of the Federal Reserve raising its policy rate of interest and maintaining its effort at quantitative tightening. Why have I determined that market attitudes changed around the end of March? On July 14, 20232, one Euro cost $1.1230. The price of one Euro has declined almost steadily since that time.The dollar price of the British pound took a similar path.The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note on July 14, 2023, was 3.820 percent. Currently, the yield is 4.620 percent. On July 31, the S&P 500 stock index closed at 4,589. The price has been downhill for most of the following period.The story that the markets seem to be telling us is that sometime in the middle of July 2023, market participants started taking the Federal Reserve at its word. Since then, the value of the U.S. dollar became stronger and stronger, as investors bought into the dollar.Bond prices fell and stock prices declined as investors sold these items. All of this is consistent with the fact that investors really started to believe that Mr. Powell and the Federal Reserve were going to do what it said it had set out to do.The Fed, market participants believed, going to continue to fight inflation and were going to bring the rate of price increases down to the level the Fed wanted...2.0 percent. In this past week, the Federal Reserve published its latest round of forecasts for the future. This release was followed by a new set of forecasts by the U.S Commerce Department. inflation and unemployment would approach the Fed's goals within the next year or so. The feeling expressed in both forecasts was that the Fed is succeeding in its efforts to get the economy back to a "more normal" rate of operation. Mr. Powell and other Federal Reserve leaders continued to caution the investment community to "be patient." But, the underlying message seemed to be, we are approaching what we set out to achieve. Bottom line, Mr. Powell and others were saying...be patient...after 18 months of quantitative tightening..we are getting there.It seems as if the markets have been right on the side of the Federal Reserve at this time. What the Fed has done supports a strong dollar relative to other currencies throughout the world.The US dollar deserves to be strong.But, there is still a way to go. The Fed may be getting the car in the garage, but the car is not fully in the garage yet...and the garage door has not been shut.Let's hope the job can be completed. Unfortunately, there may be some fiscal discomfort taking place before the final chapters are written. The potential government shutdown is not good news.
by moonypto
EURUSD has an uptrendThe U.S. dollar extends gains, hitting another ten-month high against a basket of currencies, helped as investor worries over a potential government shutdown lift safe-haven assets, says Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote Bank, in a note. "Investors continue to dump stocks and buy U.S. dollars on looming uncertainty regarding whether the U.S. government will be shut in three days," she says. There is progress regarding a six-week short-term funding deal, but getting an approval from the Senate will be a challenge, she says. The DXY dollar index trades at 106.224, having earlier hit a high of 106.3210. EUR/USD falls to a six-month low of 1.0554, according to FactSet Germany's 2.60% August 2033 Bund--the current 10-year German benchmark and the bond that will be reopened at auction on Wednesday--, offers limited relative value, according to rates strategists at Citi Research. They find the bond rich, or expensive, in the August 2032-August 2033-July 2034 yield "fly", a trading strategy where investors bet on the shape of the yield curve. The German Finance Agency will auction EUR4 billion in the August 2033 Bund with auction results at 0930 GMT. The August 2033 Bund is trading at a yield of 2.807%, up 0.5 basis points, according to Tradeweb
Long
by FalCol_TradingMaster
currency trading strategy - EURUSD has an uptrendTheU.S. dollar index DXY last stood at 106.20, having peaked at a 10-month high of 106.26 in the previous session, while the euro EURUSD languished near Tuesday's six-month low and last bought $1.0569. "The U.S. dollar is stickier to the upside than the downside," said Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets. "It's (been) a shock for markets since last week because the Federal Reserve's rhetoric was more hawkish than expected ... I think it's more likely they will hike rates for one more time."
Long
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
EUR/USD: LIKELY TO BOUNCE BACK.Hello traders, Here's another update on EUR/USD in a 3-hour timeframe. After a continuous drop in the EUR/USD, it has finally reached close to the previous support level ($1.052). This area is going to be crucial for the EUR/USD to decide where it will head next. As far as I am concerned, the EUR/USD must bounce back soon. The invalidation point will be a close below $1.052. What's your idea on this chart? Let me know in the comments. Regards, Team Dexter.
Long
by Dexter_The_Trader
3
#EURUSD COUNTER TREND BUY# EURO BULLS REDYEuro bulls, opportunity for a euro long has arisen! Recently euro is being battered by its counterpart dollar for several reasons: - Regional interest rate differentials, hawkish fed and dovish ecb - Macroeconomical disparity between the to regions - Worsening growth outlook for euro bulls - Technical downtrend for many, many weeks This counter-trend trade is a outlier, supported by a global technical price level and some fundamentals - euro area decent is stabilizing. I am looking forward to buy euro at around 1.600 area and sell it around 1.650. Thread carefully since higher timeframe trends are downwards, use proper risk management!
Long
by eediiz
ECB's Next Move in Inflation Fight: Managing Excess Liquidity Frankfurt, Reuters - In the ongoing fight against inflation, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers are gearing up for a significant shift in strategy. They are set to deliberate on ways to address the vast pool of excess liquidity inundating banks, with the possibility of raising reserve requirements emerging as the initial tactic. This pivotal discussion is expected to kick off at the ECB's forthcoming meeting in Athens on October 26 or during an autumn retreat for policymakers. Despite the ECB having already raised interest rates ten times to record levels, inflation still stubbornly hovers above its 2% target. With interest rates likely to remain unchanged until December, policymakers are pivoting their attention to the massive infusion of funds into the banking system through a decade of bond purchases. This surplus liquidity undermines the effectiveness of rate hikes, reduces competition for deposits, and leads to substantial interest payments and potential losses for some central banks. Sources indicate that the debate on curbing excess liquidity will focus on three key areas: revising the mandatory reserves banks maintain at the ECB, unwinding the bond-buying programs, and establishing a new framework for influencing short-term interest rates. While an ECB spokesperson declined to comment, insiders suggest that several policymakers favor increasing the reserve requirement from the current 1% of customer deposits to potentially as high as 3% or 4%. This move would serve the dual purpose of absorbing excess cash from the banking system and reducing interest payouts by the ECB and the eurozone's national central banks. However, some policymakers advocate bundling the decision on reserves with discussions regarding the ECB's asset purchase schemes and interest-rate framework, which could lengthen the decision-making process. Shrinking the 4.8 trillion euro debt pile acquired by the ECB since 2015, mainly to counter deflation risks, poses even greater challenges and market sensitivities. While phasing out the ECB's Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by not replacing maturing bonds is an option, policymakers are cautious about upsetting financial markets, particularly Italian government bond investors. ECB President Christine Lagarde recently indicated that bond-buying schemes were not on the table at the latest policy meeting, emphasizing the importance of PEPP for policy transmission. While there have been suggestions to sell bonds acquired under the older Asset Purchase Programme, some argue this would result in even larger losses for the ECB. Sources suggest that a decision on bond-buying schemes might not materialize this year and, if it does, may not take effect until early 2024 or later in the spring. Furthermore, debates surrounding the policy framework—whether the ECB should continue to set an interbank rate floor or revert to a corridor system—are expected to extend into 2024, as the volume of excess reserves in banks keeps the ECB effectively locked into a floor system. A study presented at the ECB's summer symposium in Sintra suggested that, now that monetary stimulus is no longer necessary, the ECB could reduce bank liquidity to a range of 521 billion euros to 1.4 trillion euros while still meeting banks' reserve needs." This revised text provides a more engaging and concise summary of the original content, making it more attractive to readers.
by Ayame_Hana
53
"EURUSD Set to Rise: Support Holds Strong"#EURUSD expected to rise in the coming days the price is clearly reached the support which was around 1.06330, afterwards we can see that the market found a momentum and pushed up and considering the weak ascending broadening wedge pattern in 30M TF it looks week to push it back down. The price is expected to rise towards the trending line (@1.07614-1.08260) 🔥EURUSD BUY ( 1.06900 - 1.06500) 🟢TP1- 1.07200 🟢TP2- 1.07500 🟢TP3- 1.08000 🔴SL- 1.06180
Long
by FKW-Millions
EURUSD Long Term Buy Trading IdeaHello Traders In This Chart EURUSD DAILY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today EURUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (EURUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on EURUAD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Long
by ForexPlanet20