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EUR/USD Extends Upside Momentum Above 1.0700The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0700 in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. Lower US Treasury bond yields are exerting pressure on the US Dollar (USD), providing some support for this currency pair. However, concerns about economic downturn in the Eurozone may limit the Euro's upward trajectory. The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased for the second consecutive day and is holding above the 20-day and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a modest bullish trend. However, closing below 1.0615 would negate positive prospects. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the short-term downtrend line around 1,0705, while staying above the support zone at 1,0655. Technical indicators are not providing clear signals. A breakout above 1,0710 would open up opportunities for further strength, with subsequent targets at 1,0735 and then the previous high near 1,0760. On the other hand, an acceleration of the downside may occur if the pair breaks below 1,0650, initially targeting 1,0635 and then 1,0610.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Maintains Modest Gains Near 1.0700"EUR/USD is holding slight gains near the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Monday. The US dollar started the new week on a defensive note, despite higher US bond yields. Traders are awaiting GDP data for the Eurozone and US inflation figures later in the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has dipped below 50, while EUR/USD falls below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Maintains Position Below 1.0700The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note during the early Monday trading hours in Asia. The recovery of this currency pair is supported by the prevailing weakness of the US Dollar (USD). Having bounced from last week's low of 1.0656, the pair remains constrained below the resistance level of 1.0700. Currently, the main currency pair is trading around 1.0690, marking a 0.04% increase for the day. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October. The 12-month inflation expectations for the US increased to 4.4% from 4.2%, while the 5-year expectations rose to 3.2% from 3.0%. A crucial upcoming event is the release of the CPI report for October. A better-than-expected outcome from this report could heighten the probability of the Fed raising interest rates again in December. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that if further policy tightening is deemed appropriate, the central bank would not hesitate to do so. On the other hand, the European Commission will release its economic growth forecast on Monday, with downward adjustments expected for the 2024 growth outlook. Preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone for Q3 is also due, with a quarterly estimate of a 0.1% decrease and an anticipated 0.1% increase on a yearly basis. Additionally, some ECB figures, including Lagarde, De Guindos, Lane, and Villeroy, may reiterate that any discussions about interest rate cuts are premature. The International Monetary Fund stated last week that rapidly rising wages in the euro area could lead to prolonged inflation, suggesting that the European Central Bank should maintain interest rates at or around record highs in the coming year to alleviate pressure on prices. However, the market anticipates a rate cut, possibly as early as April, with a total of 90 basis points of cuts priced in by the end of next year. What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
2
EUR/USD Under Pressure Post-Disappointing US Data"EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday, hovering within a narrow range just below 1.0700. US Consumer Sentiment, falling to 60.4 in November from October's 63.8, adds pressure. Wall Street trades in the red after Thursday's decline, impacting USD demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50 as EUR/USD slips below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating short-term downside prospects. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EURUSD Longs - A grade setup blueprintThis time we are diving into an A grade setup that was presented to us on the 08/11/2023. After anticipating a bullish move from this exact zone marked out last Sunday's post. I will be breaking down what I would look for once price taps into our higher time frame POI (16hr demand zone on EU). At first I noticed that as price was slowing down momentum, wyckoff accumulation started to become more evident. During the process of liquidating previous buyers, it changed character on the 10min which left a 5min OB that was unmitigated. From then, my SPRING was confirmed as well as my entry price. In addition to this, the order block was also in line with the 0.78 mark on the fib range and it was at a very discounted area hence why price was volatile as soon as it got tapped in. As I also realised that price had filled the imbalance left from last Fridays NFP event, I knew price would want to continue in the trend it had set, which was a bullish order flow that consisted of higher highs and higher lows. Lastly I would set my take profit target to be in areas of liquidity that price would attract to, and in this case it was the amount of untouched Asia highs that was left from previous days. However, I also realised that for price to move back down, it would need to mitigate a supply which was also left above the points of liquidity. P.S. The mini equal lows that was swept was just extra confluence that price would react off my 5min OB that caused the CHOCH to happen, and because price had perpetual liquidity sweeps, I knew that there was minimal reversal magnets that could try interfere with our trade. Ultimately, this was why we was able to catch a 1:12 RR with basically ZERO DRAWDOWN...
Long
by Hassan_fx
3
The ECB needs to keep interest rates above the 4% threshold to "IMF Europe Director Alfred Comer warned the ECB that if it does not cut interest rates soon, it will be forced to tighten monetary policy more costly later. The headquarters of the European Central Bank in Frankfurt am Main, Germany. (Photo: AFP/TTXVN) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on November 8 that rapid wage growth in the euro zone could push inflation further higher. The European Central Bank (ECB) should therefore keep interest rates at record levels next year to "ease" price pressures. Last month, the ECB broke its record of 10 consecutive interest rate hikes. Markets are therefore predicting that the bank's next move could be a rate cut in April.
Long
by AstronautPioneer
EURUSD: Evolution and movement trend of EURThe euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically. Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position. The euro lost value compared to the USD today as the dollar had a significant increase. Germany released some disappointing data. Following the RBA's announcement that this would be the final increase in interest rates, the value of the Australian dollar plummeted dramatically. Germany's industrial production weakened last month, according to data, which had an indirect negative impact on the euro. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Fed, will talk on Wednesday and Thursday. Following the Fed policy meeting last week, the markets will now be watching to see if he sticks to his more accommodating position.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
The USD fell, extending the decline from last week. Will the EURThe U.S. dollar edged lower in early European trading Monday, falling to a six-week low and extending last week's decline on a less hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. At 03:20 ET (08:20 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.1% to 104.782, after falling more than 1% last week, the sharpest decrease since the middle of last year. The dollar has weakened since the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting last week, when the central bank offered dovish signals about more interest rate hikes. EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0743, with the euro rising to levels last seen in September on dollar weakness, rather than any form of regional economic strength. Which area? This tone was reinforced by Friday's official jobs report, which showed that US nonfarm payrolls grew less than expected in October. The data suggests the US labor market is cooling. more, which has been the main driver of the Fed's hawkish stance this year.
Long
by Chart_MasterPro
Dollar now on the way down?The Euro rose today after the NFP report (Non-Farm Payrolls) missed expectations. The report indicates the number of new jobs created in the US outside of the agricultural sector. It is considered one of the most important indicators of the health of the US economy and the monetary policy of the Fed (Federal Reserve). The NFP data shows that the US economy created only 194,000 new jobs in October, well below the expected 450,000. This was the slowest job growth since early 2021. The unemployment rate is 3.9%, but the labor participation rate remained unchanged at 61.6%. This suggests that many people are still not actively looking for work. NFP – 150,000 — Previous month: 336,000 Unemployment rate 3.9% — Previous month: 3.8% Wage growth m/m 0.3% — Previous month: 0.2% These data have dampened expectations that the Fed will soon raise interest rates to combat inflation. Inflation in the US has risen to the highest level in 13 years and is well above the Fed's target of 2%. However, the Fed has emphasized that the inflation is temporary and that it is more concerned about the labor market. The Fed has already announced that it will reduce its bond purchases starting in November, but it has not set an exact timetable for an interest rate hike. A lower interest rate usually means a weaker dollar, as it reduces the attractiveness of US assets. A stronger interest rate usually means a stronger dollar, as it increases the demand for US assets. The EURUSD reflects the ratio between the Euro and the Dollar. If the EURUSD rises, it means that the Euro is gaining value against the Dollar. If the EURUSD falls, it means that the Euro is losing value against the Dollar. The EURUSD rose to 1.0733 today, which corresponds to an increase of 1.06%. (Data Blackbull Markets). This is the highest level since the end of September. The EURUSD benefited from the weakness of the Dollar, but also from the strength of the Euro. The Euro was supported by positive economic data from the Eurozone, which showed robust growth and rising inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) has also signaled that it will soon end its bond purchases and possibly raise interest rates earlier than expected. The question now is whether the EURUSD will continue its recovery or experience a reversal. This depends on many factors, such as future economic data, the monetary policy decisions of the Fed and the ECB, and geopolitical tensions. CHART ANALYSIS Technically, the EUR has certainly signaled a clear buying interest today, which could lift it towards 1.0850 in the next few days. In this area, there is an important price level, which also corresponds to the 50% retracement of the previous price downturn. However, caution should be exercised as sharp pullbacks often occur after strong rises, which can shoot many traders out of their long positions. Cautious traders will wait for pullbacks during the day to build long positions. CONCLUSION I see the EUR rising to 1.0850 in the next few days. Fundamentally and technically, the lights are green to build long positions.
Long
by Edgezone
1
EUR/USD Could Rise Back Towards 1.0650/1.0675"Despite negative data from the Eurozone (weaker growth and confidence, lower inflation), the calm Dollar environment warns that EUR/USD could rise again. The range of 1.0520 to 1.0700 appears to be the new short-term range, and EUR/USD might climb towards 1.0650/1.0675, possibly triggered by the US unemployment claims announcement. The data calendar is light, but attention is on the speech by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane. We anticipate he may hint at another rate hike in December, although the current forex market already fully prices in any further ECB tightening measures.
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD: Defensive Ahead of Eurozone CPI Data"The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on previous positive moves and trades with slight bearish momentum in the Asian session on Tuesday. However, the spot price attempts to hold above the key level of 1.0600 and remains contingent on the price dynamics of the US Dollar (USD). The tightening stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) further supports higher US Treasury yields, bolstering the USD's appeal for low-priced buying, thus acting as a resistance for the EUR/USD pair. This, coupled with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may not raise rates further, contributes to limiting the spot price. This sentiment was reaffirmed by data showing Germany's consumer inflation slowed down from 4.3% YoY to 3.0% in October, marking the lowest level since August 2021. This decline comes amid looming economic recession risks, indicating the end of the ECB's rate hike cycle. In contrast, markets are evaluating the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising rates once again in 2023. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will maintain its hawkish stance given the challenging US economic recovery and persisting inflation. Thus, the focus will remain on the outcomes of the highly anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting. The US central bank will announce its decision on Wednesday, and many anticipate it will maintain the status quo in its second consecutive meeting. Meanwhile, market participants will seek signals about the Fed's future rate hike path, impacting the USD's price dynamics and creating new momentum for the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, Tuesday's release of Eurozone flash CPI data will be scrutinized for short-term opportunities ahead of the US macroeconomic data - Chicago PMI and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index."
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.0550 Ahead of German GDP, CPI DataEUR/USD is trading sideways around 1.0550 on Monday morning in Europe. Traders are cautious ahead of crucial inflation and GDP data from Germany. Political tensions remain a cause for concern. EUR/USD might face strong resistance around 1.0570-1.0580, where the Fibonacci retracement level of 23.6% of the latest downward trend, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), and the 200-day SMA converge. If the pair rises above this area and stabilizes there, the next price targets could be 1.0640 (Fibonacci retracement level of 38.2%) and 1.0700 (psychological level, Fibonacci retracement level of 50%). On the downside, temporary support lies at 1.0530 (static level) before 1.0500 (psychological level) and 1.0450 (recent low point). EUR/USD rose to 1.0600 at the end of last week but lost momentum and closed almost unchanged on Friday. Early Monday, the pair moved within a tight channel around 1.0550. Short-term technical prospects indicate a lack of directional momentum. Buyers might hesitate to bet on a stable Euro recovery unless the pair breaks the 1.0570-1.0580 barrier. Markets expect Germany's economy to contract by 0.7% annually in the third quarter. Later in the day, Germany's Destatis will release October inflation data. On a yearly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is forecasted to rise by 3.6%, down from the 4.3% increase recorded in September. Worsening economic prospects in the Eurozone and increasing signs of slowing inflation have allowed the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its key interest rates. Unless German CPI inflation unexpectedly surges in October, the market is unlikely to reconsider the ECB's interest rate outlook. In an interview with Croatia's state television HRT1 over the weekend, ECB policy maker Boris Vujčić stated, "We have completed the process of raising interest rates." In the latter half of the day, the U.S. economic calendar does not feature any high-impact releases. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures were last seen rising between 0.3% and 0.7%. The opening gains on Wall Street could potentially weigh on the U.S. dollar, but investors may limit large positions ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcements on Wednesday.
by Gwen_Humuna