The Euro's recent escapades with the US dollar have The Euro's dance with the US dollar last Thursday painted a curious picture - a spirited attempt to soar, only to stumble in the face of market fatigue, as if gravity suddenly remembered its role in the financial theatrics.
This weariness isn't a solo act; it has accomplices. The Euro's recent surge stretched its limits, much like a rubber band pulled too far. And the timing? Well, it's the season of not just festivities but also fiscal scarcity. Liquidity tends to play hide-and-seek during this time of the year, leaving the market feeling a bit parched.
The market's recent trajectory resembled a rocket's flight path - an upward surge that now seems to be enjoying a pause mid-air. This break isn't just a breather; it's a sigh of relief echoing across the boardrooms and trading floors.
Ah, the holiday season! Nestled between the echoes of Christmas and the countdown to New Year's, it's a time when the market dynamics sway to a different tune. Prominent traders, much like eager kids waiting for the last firework to burst before the show's finale, choose to sit this one out. There's a unanimous decision to trade the trading for a while, thanks to the holiday mood casting its spell.
It's not just a lull; it's the hush before the year-end storm. Most folks aren't glued to their screens analyzing FX trends; they're too busy contemplating the best roast turkey recipe or debating who'll win the family game of charades. The market, in its current subdued state, seems to be in harmony with the general mood - serene and taking a holiday siesta.
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EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal...EUR/USD: Dollar Rebounds and Technical Indicators Signal Potential Upside
EUR/USD faced a decline on Tuesday, reaching its lowest point in nearly two weeks at 1.0940, as the US Dollar (USD) initiated a decisive correction after a lackluster performance in the closing weeks of 2023.
Technical Landscape:
As the new trading day unfolds, the price opens with a bearish tone, navigating within the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci area within a bullish channel. Notably, the 100 moving average acts as a dynamic support, potentially influencing the pair's trajectory.
USD Rebound and Market Sentiments:
With limited high-tier data releases, the USD gains traction from a souring market mood and a steady recovery in US Treasury bond yields on Tuesday. The US Dollar Index, which experienced a 2% dip in December, rallied nearly 1% on the first trading day of 2024.
Upcoming Economic Data:
In the latter part of the day, the US economic docket is set to feature the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for December and the JOLTS Job Openings report for November. Market expectations anticipate the ISM Manufacturing PMI to inch higher to 47.1 from November's 46.7. A reading surpassing 50 could provide a boost to the USD upon immediate reaction. Conversely, a noticeable decline in job openings may exert downward pressure on the USD.
Anticipated Bullish Impulse:
Building on our technical analysis and taking into account the forthcoming economic data, there is an expectation for a potential bullish impulse in the EUR/USD pair. The interplay between technical indicators and fundamental factors sets the stage for a dynamic trading environment as investors await key data releases.
As EUR/USD navigates the early trading sessions of 2024, the rebounding US Dollar and the alignment of technical signals become pivotal factors. The anticipation of a bullish impulse, coupled with the release of crucial economic data, creates an environment where traders remain alert to potential opportunities in the evolving currency landscape.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0724 with targets at 1.1140 & 1.1200 in extension.
Euro's Risk Amid CPI SurgeEuro marked its strongest two-month performance in a year, surging 4.4% against the US dollar in November and December 2023.
The dollar's weakness largely contributed to this rise, driven by expectations of swift rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, eroding its competitive edge.
The European Central Bank (ECB) countered rate-cut pressures. Despite the Fed's market-friendly stance in December, ECB President Christine Lagarde dismissed talks of rate cuts, propelling the euro up by over 1%.
Lagarde also anticipated fundamental impacts boosting December inflation and projecting a slower inflation decline in 2024. Forecasts predict Germany's CPI to rise to 3.9% from November's 2.3%.
This week's release of regional CPI figures, expected after German data, forecasts inflation reaching 3% in December, marking a three-month high.
Yet, market doubts linger regarding the ECB's hawkishness. The market's implied path continues to sway dovishly after December, with expectations of the first 25 basis point cut by April.
Traders have factored in six cuts, totaling 150 basis points or a 1.5% rate decrease, and imply a 68% likelihood of a seventh cut. This hints at a perceived tilt toward a dovish policy trajectory.
EURUSD Could fall to 1.0950-1.0900 and then rise againThe Dollar Index is rising as expected and could test the 102.50 level while the Euro could fall to 1.0950-1.09. EURJPY looks bearish towards 155/154 while USDJPY has rebounded and could test the 143 level now, contrary to our expectations of a fall to 140-138. USDCNY is rising towards our mentioned target of 7.15/16. The Australian Dollar is heading towards 0.6750/0.67 while the Pound is near the immediate support of 1.26, which needs to produce a bounce or could be vulnerable to a drop to 1.24. USDRUB increased sharply yesterday but appears to be falling from the current 91 level. USDINR rose slightly above our expected resistance at 83.30 but then turned back down. The 83.35-83.20 range could hold well during the day. EURINR has risen above 91 and could soon test 91.50 before pausing.
US and German Treasury yields are seeing upward revisions in line with our expectations. Both output may increase further from here in the coming days. The 10-year GoI could rise to test its resistance before turning back down to resume the downtrend. On the other hand, the 5-year GoI is stuck in a tight range within its broader downtrend.
EUR/USD Under 1.0900 Before US PMI, FOMC Minutes EUR/USD faces pressure from a stronger US Dollar, hovering near 1.0941, down 0.02%. Daily indicators suggest a potential downtrend continuation if it breaks below 1.0920. On the 4-hour chart, recovery is uneven from oversold levels, with potential further decline under 1.0920. Economic data and FOMC minutes await, as market sentiment remains cautious amid economic slowdown signals and risk aversion.
EURUSD POTENTIALLY BULLISHFX:EURUSD Broke out of the major resistance and has formed a new high. On H4 TF, it can be seen attempting to form a new higher low. If the new higher low is fully formed and holds around the 1.10345 area, we just might see some higher push
Targets are at:
1) 1.11300
2) 1.12389
Trade with caution and trade responsibly. Do your due diligence
Happy New year
EUR/USD: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market..EUR/USD Embarks on 2024: A Delicate Balance of Technical Patterns and Market Sentiments
As the European session opens its doors to 2024, EUR/USD treads cautiously, marking modest declines below 1.1008. The immediate technical outlook suggests a potential extension of the ongoing correction, while market participants exercise caution, refraining from substantial commitments in anticipation of pivotal macroeconomic data releases scheduled later in the week.
December Triumphs and Dollar Dynamics:
EUR/USD showcased resilience throughout December, securing gains of over 1% and achieving a second consecutive month of positive momentum. This upward surge was fueled by a weakening appetite for the US Dollar (USD) as investors speculated about an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut, possibly in March. In contrast, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers stood firm on their non-committal stance regarding any policy pivot, underscoring the premature nature of such considerations.
Technical Insights and Bullish Channel:
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD continues to navigate within a bullish channel. Presently positioned within the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci area, the currency pair presents an intriguing opportunity for a potential pullback. Analysts eye a continuation of the bullish trend, envisioning a swing setup unfolding in the upcoming sessions.
Anticipated Data Releases and Market Focus:
In the unfolding day, market attention gravitates towards S&P Global's imminent release of revised December Manufacturing PMI figures for Germany, the Euro area, and the US. These anticipated data points hold the promise of offering crucial insights into the economic performance of key regions, shaping market sentiments in the process.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.09290 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
EURUSD is likely to increase when it bottoms againEUR/USD just hit a high, breaking through the 1.1020 and 1.1101 hurdles to reach 1.1121—a five-month high and up 0.72%. But it's the holiday season and the low trading climate can make things unpredictable. It's likely we will see a temporary spike in rates and then a drop below 1.10 as things return to normal. If you're thinking of selling, keep a close eye on any signs of change. Our next challenge? Resistance level 1.125—notice how the market behaves around that level. Once things stabilize and normal trading begins, we will get a clearer picture. We may be correcting back to the broken resistance level and we may have an opportunity to buy EURUSD at a discount targeting the resistance zone.
EURUSD : Long Trade , 4hHello traders, we want to check the EURUSD chart. The price is moving in an ascending channel and has reached a resistance level, and after failing to break this level, it is pulling back to the support level. We expect the price to maintain this level and the price to grow again to the specified resistance level. Good luck.
EUR/USD Nears 1.1050 Closure for 2023Technical Outlook:
The EUR/USD rate lingers around 1.1050, swinging between the 50-hour and 200-hour SMAs as 2023 draws to a close.
Post-holiday trading will transition into an extended break after the New Year, with EUR/USD finding technical support from the 200-hour SMA just above 1.1000.
Daily candlesticks reflect an overbought scenario as the Euro retreats from Thursday's multi-month high near 1.1150. The 50-day SMA converges toward the 200-day SMA around 1.0850. Technical indicators, including the 14-day RSI, hint at a potential pullback from overbought conditions.
The restrained movement of EUR/USD near 1.1050 signals cautious market sentiments, with indicators suggesting a possible retreat despite recent highs. This shift may influence early market trends in the new year.
Wishing everyone a Happy New Year !
EUR/USD Faces Headwinds Amid Economic Data,Bulls Remain in...EUR/USD Faces Headwinds Amid Economic Data, Yet Bulls Remain in Control
On Thursday, the EUR/USD encountered headwinds, struggling to maintain levels above 1.1050 as of the current writing. The pushback comes in the wake of economic data releases that failed to provide a significant boost to the euro against the US dollar.
US Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales:
The US weekly Jobless Claims report revealed a larger-than-expected increase in Initial Jobless Claims, reaching 218,000—the highest level in three weeks. Continuing Claims also climbed, reaching 1.875 million. Additionally, Pending Home Sales remained stagnant in November, falling short of expectations for a 1% increase. Despite these figures, the data did not exert a substantial impact on the US Dollar or alter monetary policy expectations.
Upcoming Data and Bullish Outlook:
Looking ahead, the market's attention turns to Friday's release of the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), expected to decline to 51 in December from 55.8 in November.
Despite the recent headwinds, the EUR/USD remains in the grasp of a bullish rally. Analysts foresee a potential pullback in the near term, particularly around the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. This scenario could pave the way for a swing impulse, providing an opportunity for the currency pair to gather momentum for its next upward move.
Anticipating a Pullback:
With an eye on the technicals, market observers are looking for a pullback within the 50% - 61.8% Fibonacci level, anticipating a strategic entry point for a potential swing in favor of the prevailing bullish trend.
Conclusion:
While economic data and current market conditions pose challenges for the EUR/USD, the overall bullish sentiment persists. Investors and traders are on the lookout for a pullback within the identified Fibonacci area, considering it a potential opportunity for the currency pair to regather strength and resume its upward trajectory. The unfolding dynamics in the coming days will undoubtedly shape the course of the EUR/USD, offering insights into the resilience of the ongoing bullish rally.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.0950 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
"EUR/USD Dips Below 1.1100 Amid Year-End Volatility"EUR/USD faced challenging retracements on Thursday as thin holiday trading stirred volatility around the final trading day of 2023.
The Euro (EUR) swiftly climbed to a 21-week high of 1.1140 early on Thursday as broader markets continued to shed the US Dollar (USD) on expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. However, market over-expectations regarding the Fed's structural pivot played out well before today, and the uptick in the 7-year US Treasury yields triggered a retreat to the safe-haven USD, pushing riskier assets like the Euro back into the red on the last trading day of 2023.
Initial US unemployment claims for the week ending December 22 also rose, indicating 218 thousand new claims compared to the previous week's adjusted 206 thousand. Additionally, pending home sales in the US for November fell short of market expectations, holding at 0.0% and missing the market forecast of a 1.0% recovery from October's adjusted -1.5% decline.
As the year concludes, the EUR/USD forex pair grapples with market dynamics influenced by shifting expectations, economic data, and ongoing global uncertainties. Traders are closely monitoring these factors as they navigate the currency markets in anticipation of the new year.
EUR/USD Eyes 1.1200: Technical Momentum Fueled by Dovish Fed ExpEUR/USD Eyes 1.1200: Technical Momentum Fueled by Dovish Fed Expectations
In a striking ascent, the EUR/USD pair is surging towards the major resistance at the 1.1150 level, signaling a bullish momentum that aims to breach the psychological threshold of 1.1200. The Euro (EUR) maintains its winning streak, gaining ground against the subdued US Dollar (USD). This favorable trend is largely attributed to the anticipated dovish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) concerning the future trajectory of interest rates.
Dovish Fed Expectations:
Building on our previous analysis, the EUR's upward trajectory appears to be continuing, supported by a combination of factors. The market sentiment is influenced by the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a dovish stance on interest rates in the coming year. With US yields trending lower and market participants anticipating rate cuts, the US Dollar faces headwinds. Concurrently, equity prices remain near recent highs, contributing to the sustained pressure on the US Dollar, particularly in the context of holiday-thinned trading.
Upcoming Data and Holiday Impact:
Amid the holiday season, Wednesday saw no significant reports, setting the stage for Thursday's focus on the US weekly Jobless Claims. Additionally, attention will be directed towards Spain's preliminary inflation figures for December, set to be released on Friday.
Looking Ahead:
As the year 2023 draws to a close, the calm waters in the market continue to weigh on the US Dollar, offering further support to the EUR/USD pair's upward momentum. However, as markets transition back to normal functioning in the upcoming week, the focus will shift to crucial US employment data. The outcome of these economic indicators could potentially shape the currency landscape as the new year unfolds.
The EUR/USD pair's bullish trajectory towards 1.1200 is a testament to the prevailing market sentiment, driven by expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve. As the year concludes, the subdued US Dollar faces challenges, with the EUR maintaining its winning streak. Traders and investors will closely monitor upcoming economic data and the return to normal market conditions in the new year, as they seek to navigate the evolving dynamics of the currency markets.
Our preference
Long positions above 1.09500 with targets at 1.1150 & 1.1200 in extension.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100, Eyes US Employment Data EUR/USD extends its upward momentum beyond the psychological level of 1.1100 during the Asian session on Thursday. The US dollar's overall weakness provides some support for the major currency pair, despite the rebound in US Treasury bond yields. Attention is now focused on mid-range US employment data.
EUR/USD has confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000 and quickly reached the 1.1100 mark. The pair peaked at 1.1122 before retracing modestly. The upward trend persists, although technical indicators are overbought across most timeframes. The trend remains strong and resilient, though some consolidation seems likely.
On the 4-hour chart, the trend is bullish. However, technical signals suggest some accumulation may occur ahead of the Asian trading session, potentially ranging between 1.1110 and 1.1080. The 1.1050 region has become a relevant support area, followed by the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1030. Below 1.0980, the short-term trend may turn neutral. Corrections could be viewed as buying opportunities, keeping downsides limited.
EUR/USD Holds Above 1.1100 Despite Overbought SignalsEUR/USD extended its rise above 1.1100 in the Asian session on Thursday, supported by a weaker US dollar. Despite overbought technical indicators, the pair confirmed the breakthrough above 1.1000. The upward trend remains strong, with potential consolidation between 1.1110 and 1.1080. Key support lies at 1.1050, followed by the 20-period SMA at 1.1030. Corrections may present buying opportunities, with downside risks limited below 1.0980.
EUR/USD Analysis: Post-Christmas InsightsOur technical outlook for EUR/USD remains unchanged as we await shifts in performance, likely to occur with the return of investors and market activity post the holiday season. Currently, examining the daily chart, there's a discernible upward trend in the pair's performance, holding steady around and above the psychological resistance level of 1.1000. If the weakness in the US dollar persists, the currency pair may find opportunities for further recovery.
From a technical standpoint, the immediate resistance levels are at 1.1065 and 1.1120. Beyond these levels, technical indicators may start leaning towards overbought conditions. Conversely, within the same timeframe, a retracement to the support level of 1.0880 is crucial for the bearish camp to regain control and disrupt the current upward momentum. Stay tuned for market developments as we navigate the dynamics in the post-holiday trading environment.
AUD Falls from Yearly Highs Amidst US Core PCE Data ReleaseThe Australian Dollar experienced a notable surge as the US Dollar dipped close to its monthly lows. The Reserve Bank of Australia will assess additional data to shape future monetary policy decisions. Softened data from the US reinforces expectations of the Fed easing monetary policy in early 2024, with Q3 annual GDP and QoQ core PCE dropping by 4.9% and 2.0%, respectively.
The Australian Dollar is currently trading below the psychological resistance level at 0.6800, having peaked at 0.6802 on Friday. Widely shared bullish sentiment suggests the potential for the AUD/USD pair to surpass recent highs and target a significant resistance level at 0.6850. On the flip side, key support levels are identified at 0.6750, ahead of the seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6740. A breach below this crucial support zone may guide the AUD/USD pair towards the psychological support at 0.6700, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6679.