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USD/JPY Stable Below 147.45 Ahead of US ADP ReportThe US Dollar maintains a modest bid in early European trading, with the USD/JPY pair trading narrowly below the 147.45 resistance level. The downtrend has persisted above 147.00 so far. The USD staged a mild recovery from Monday's lows but faced resistance at 147.45, leading to a measured downward trend on Tuesday. Investor caution ahead of key US employment data has supported the reversal in favor of the Japanese Yen. Speculation is growing that the Fed has completed its interest rate hikes, and the US central bank is anticipated to commence rate cuts in March, weighing on the US Dollar. Conversely, the Bank of Japan is expected to step away from extremely loose monetary policies in the coming months. This, coupled with risk aversion in the market, is offsetting the safe-haven appeal of the Japanese Yen. On the economic calendar, today's foundation-setting events include the US ISM Services and JOLTs Job Openings, laying the groundwork for Wednesday's ADP and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls – key events of the week. From a technical standpoint, the 4-hour chart illustrates the pair trading within a descending wedge pattern, descending from November's peak. Price action remains below the primary SMA, and the RSI has dipped below the midpoint, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend. Next support levels are at 146.30 and 146.00, while resistance levels at 147.45 and 148.50, previously mentioned, represent the 38.2% retracement of the November-December decline.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Sees Modest Uptick Around 1.0770 Ahead of Eurozone GDPThe EUR/USD pair experienced a modest uptick in early Asian trading on Thursday. However, the upward trend of this currency pair may face limitations due to the recent demand for the US Dollar and weaker-than-expected data from the Eurozone. The major currency pair is trading around the 1.0770 level, marking a 0.08% increase for the day. The EUR/USD exchange rate continues its decline, with the daily chart indicating the potential for further downside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is confidently pointing south, and the Momentum has just crossed below the midpoint, two days after the price fell below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair is testing levels below the 100-day SMA and remains below the 200-day SMA, signaling bearish prospects. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD is still within a downtrend channel and comfortably distant from the lower boundary, suggesting further potential for a price decline. Breaking above the 1.0800 level would alleviate some downward pressure, but the Euro needs to rise above 1.0825 to negate the short-term bearish trend. A clear break below 1,0760 may find support around 1.0735/40, followed by a potential temporary recovery thereafter.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Extends Decline Below 1.0800 MarkThe EUR/USD pair continues to face selling pressure below the psychological level of 1.0800 in the early Asian trading session on Wednesday. Optimistic Eurozone PMI data for November failed to inspire the Euro, given the persistent weakness in demand in the Eurozone region. The EUR/USD exchange rate found support at the 100-day SMA at 1,0775, with this mentioned level being tested, and a lower daily close would indicate further weakness. Prices are below the 20-day and 200-day SMAs, and daily chart technical indicators continue to signal a downtrend. Below 1,0770, the next significant support level stands at 1,0690 (trendline, 55-day SMA). On the 4-hour chart, the currency pair is moving with a bearish trend. Technical indicators are in oversold territory, suggesting potential consolidation before a possible deeper decline. Strong short-term negative momentum may persist below 1.0850. To reverse the negative selling trend, the Euro must rise and maintain levels above 1.0915. As the EUR/USD pair faces ongoing challenges, market participants are closely monitoring key support levels and technical indicators for potential shifts in sentiment and price dynamics.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Consolidates Near 1.0850 Amid Mixed Market ConditionsThe EUR/USD pair remained range-bound around 1.0850 in early European trading on Tuesday. The recent decline in the US Dollar, coupled with higher yields on US Treasury bonds, is providing support to this currency pair, although broader risk aversion sentiment is limiting its upward momentum. Attention is focused on US employment data and the ISM PMI. The decline in EUR/USD found support around 1.0800, slipping below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and daily chart indicators indicating a bearish trend. After a more than 200-pip drop from recent highs, some consolidation appears to be in play. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has stabilized after touching 30, suggesting consolidation. The MACD indicator continues to show negativity for the Euro, while Momentum is flat. The risk seems balanced, with a drop below 1.0790 opening up opportunities for further losses, while a positive move would require the Euro to reclaim 1.0900 to negate short-term bearishness. The EUR/USD exchange rate fell for the fourth consecutive Monday, dropping below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The pair found support around the 1.0800 region. The US Dollar strengthened ahead of crucial US labor market data. The pair continues to decline as the market anticipates that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates before the Federal Reserve (Fed) does. The Euro is decreasing after reaching levels above 1,1000 last week. This move seems somewhat exaggerated, and volatility is expected to remain high. On Tuesday, Eurostat will release the Producer Price Index (PPI) for October, along with the final PMI indices. France and Spain will report Industrial Production for October. The US Dollar broadly strengthened on Monday, starting the week under pressure but recovering strongly, supported by higher US Treasury yields ahead of key economic reports. The highlight of the week in the US will be labor market data, starting with the JOLTS report and the ISM Services PMI. Towards the end of the week, the ADP Private Employment, Initial Jobless Claims, and Non-Farm Payrolls reports are expected to provide insights into a more balanced labor market.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD: Bearish Momentum Gathers Strength In the 24-hour perspective, the EUR dropped to 1.0827 last Friday before rebounding and closing relatively unchanged at 1.0881 (-0.05%). As highlighted on Monday, although selling pressure seemed to ease, there was a possibility for the EUR to decline to 1.0810 before a potential sustained recovery. In New York trading, the EUR dipped to 1.0802 before staging a recovery. This time, the downward pressure has subsided, making it challenging for the EUR to weaken further. Today, the EUR is likely to trade within a broader range, possibly between 1.0800 and 1.0870. Over the next 1-3 weeks, last Friday (December 1, spot rate at 1.0895), we observed a weakening upward momentum and a slight increase in the downward trend. We anticipated the EUR to "drop to 1.0810." As expected, the EUR reached a low of 1.0802 yesterday (December 4). Although the downward momentum has increased, it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained decline. The EUR must break and maintain below 1.0770 before the possibility of an extended downtrend. The likelihood of the EUR clearly breaking below 1.0770 is currently low, but it will persist unless the EUR surpasses the "strong resistance" at 1.0900 (yesterday's high was 1.0965).
by Gwen_Humuna
EUR/USD Slips Below 1.0950 Ahead of EU/US Inflation DataEUR/USD is sliding below 1.0950, facing fresh selling pressure as the US Dollar strengthens on Thursday. Weaker-than-expected inflation data from France, Germany, and Spain is weighing on the Euro. All eyes are now on the inflation figures for the Eurozone and the US for new market catalysts. The EUR/USD exchange rate retreats after four consecutive days of gains, pulling back from a three-month high above 1.1000. Despite the retreat, the overall trend still leans towards an upward trajectory. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently above 70 and poised to decline suggests potential consolidation ahead. Closing above 1.1010 on the daily chart opens up profit-taking opportunities. On the 4-hour chart, the risk seems tilted towards an upside move. The currency pair found support at the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). A solid break below 1.0960 will indicate further downside, with the next support at 1.0925 near the ascending trendline. On the upside, the 1.1000 level presents a crucial resistance to consider. Beyond the recent high, the next resistance level is at 1.1050. In summary, EUR/USD faces selling pressure amid US Dollar strength, driven by softer inflation data in key Eurozone countries. The overall trend suggests an upward bias, but a potential consolidation phase is indicated by the RSI. Critical levels to watch include 1.0960 on the downside and 1.1000 on the upside.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Dips Near 1.0950, Faces Technical ChallengesFrom a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair continues to struggle to surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the July to October downturn. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is poised to break out of the overbought zone, urging caution for bullish traders. Therefore, it would be prudent to anticipate a short-term consolidation or a modest pullback before positioning for any further upward movement. Meanwhile, any subsequent price decline may find support near the overnight swing low, around the 1.0925 region. Next in line is the 1.0900 level, below which the EUR/USD could retreat to the 50% Fibonacci level, around the 1.0860 area. Further downside momentum might reveal the confluence at 1.0770-1.0765, encompassing the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci level. On the flip side, bullish participants should await sustained strength and acceptance above the 61.8% Fibonacci level, around the 1.0960-1.0965 zone, before making new bets. Subsequently, the EUR/USD pair could accelerate its upward momentum to reclaim the psychological level of 1.1000 and continue its ascent to test the next relevant resistance zone near 1.1030-1.1035 on the path to the August monthly high, around the 1.1065 area.
by shariebalhornz
"EUR/USD Stabilizes After Testing 15-Week High Near 1.1000" The EUR/USD exchange rate is retracing back towards the vicinity of 1.0980 after touching a 15-week high just above 1.1000, supported by an increase in risk appetite across the broader market, causing the US Dollar to depreciate and fall into the red against all major currencies on Tuesday. The daily chart depicts EUR/USD trading around the opening level, despite reaching a weekly high. The pair is still attempting to surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 1.1275 to 1.0447 at 1.0960, although the overall picture remains bullish. The 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is crossing above the flat 100-day SMA and is on the verge of crossing the undirected 200-day SMA, all within the range of 1.0790/1.0810. Meanwhile, technical indicators remain positive, although lacking directional strength. The 4-hour chart reveals buyers defending the downside trend around the slightly ascending 20-day SMA, currently at 1.0930. The longer-term moving averages maintain their upward slopes, significantly lower than the shorter-term averages, indicating buyer control. Lastly, technical indicators have lost directional strength but still remain higher than the midline, reflecting a lack of selling pressure. Support levels: 1.0930, 1.0895, 1.0860 Resistance levels: 1.0960, 1.1005, 1.1045
by Larissa-Trader
"EUR/USD: Challenges Below 1.0950"The EUR/USD pair experiences modest losses in the early Asian trading session on Monday. Increased demand for the U.S. Dollar has pushed the major currency pair lower. The potential upside for the EUR seems limited due to macroeconomic prospects. The pair is trading near the 1.0935 level, down 0.08% on the day. EUR/USD continues to trade in the upper half of the ascending regression channel, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding just above 50, indicating a lack of selling interest. The 1.0950 level (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the downtrend from July to October) is considered a strong resistance before 1.1000 (psychological level, static level), and 1.1025 (static level from August). On the flip side, support levels are located at 1.0900 (50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), psychological level), 1.0850 (50% Fibonacci retracement level), and 1.0800 (100-period SMA, lower limit of the ascending channel). EUR/USD closed the second consecutive session in negative territory on Thursday but attempted to stabilize above the 1.0900 level on Friday. S&P Global will release Manufacturing and Services PMI data for the U.S. at the end of the day, but thin trading conditions on Black Friday may limit the pair's actions before the weekend. Data from Germany shows that the IFO Business Climate Index, Germany's leading indicator, improved to 87.3 in November from 86.9 in October. The Current Assessment Index increased to 89.4 from 89.2, while the Expectations Index rose to 85.2 from 84.8. Although these figures are slightly lower than analyst estimates, they have little impact on the Euro's valuation. Meanwhile, in an interview with Boersen-Zeitung on Thursday, European Central Bank policy maker Pierre Wunsch called the market pricing for interest rate cuts "very optimistic" and argued that this stance could increase the likelihood of further tightening. Business activity for private sectors in the U.S. is forecasted to slow down in November. In the event of disappointing PMI results, the U.S. Dollar (USD) may struggle to sustain its recovery against its counterparts in the U.S. trading session.
by Larissa-Trader
Global Economic Analysis: Potential Recession in the EurozoneEurope The S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 47.1 in November, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold, despite exceeding economists' predictions. Both manufacturing and services sectors reflect a similar trend. Germany will suspend constitutional limits on net new borrowing for the fourth consecutive year after Prime Minister Olaf Scholz's government was compelled to implement sweeping budget reforms following a recent ruling by the national supreme court. This emergency move to lift the so-called "debt brake" will be part of the 2023 budget revision, expected to be presented by Finance Minister Christian Lindner next week. Asia China may have concluded its interest rate cuts as policymakers shift towards alternative measures to support the economy and maintain credit growth stability in the new year. Initial trade data from South Korea indicates that exports are likely to sustain growth momentum this month, continuing the recovery after a year-long recession. South Korea, a crucial global exporter, plays a significant role as an indicator of the global economic condition through its export performance. Emerging Markets Thailand's economic growth unexpectedly slowed in Q3 due to a decline in manufacturing caused by weak exports, supporting the new government's $14 billion cash support program as planned. Chile's economy expanded more than forecasted in Q3, driven by the mining sector, as the central bank began to ease monetary policy. Gross domestic product increased by 0.6% from July to September compared to the same period last year. In the prolonged interest rate decisions across Africa, the region's largest economies are expected to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. Angola and Zambia raised rates this week to curb persistent inflation and stabilize their currencies, with Nigeria also planning an interest rate hike. South Africa maintains the current rate, and other countries including Morocco, Kenya, and Ghana are likely to follow suit.
by Larissa-Trader
EUR/USD Maintains Slight Decline Below 1.0900 The EUR/USD exchange rate continues its descent after failing to hold above 1.0950. On Wednesday, the pair encountered resistance at 1.0920 before experiencing another round of price depreciation. Finding support at 1.0850, the potential for further downside exists, targeting the crucial support level at 1.0830. The short-term downtrend line is positioned at 1.0900, and a move above this level could provide momentum for the Euro. On the 4-hour chart, technical indicators suggest a continued bearish trend but lack strong conviction. The MACD indicator signals bearish tendencies, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves laterally, indicating potential consolidation in the range of 1.0890 to 1.0860 or around the 1.0830 region. A drop below the subsequent level would increase downward pressure, leading to additional losses for the Euro. The EUR/USD rate retreated on Wednesday to the 1.0850 area, driven by a stronger US Dollar following the release of US economic data. This pair continues to pull back from monthly highs in a corrective move. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel stated on Wednesday that interest rates in the Eurozone are nearing their peak. Market participants believe that interest rates are unlikely to increase further unless inflation recovers. Key data will be released on Thursday, including preliminary PMI indices for November. Forecasts suggest further improvements, but all figures are expected to remain below 50. This data could impact the market, and any negative surprises may add pressure to the current adjustment in EUR/USD. The Flash Services PMI is expected to rise from 47.8 to 48.0, and Manufacturing from 43.1 to 43.3. Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will release the minutes of its latest monetary policy meeting. The US Dollar has further recovered from monthly lows, gaining momentum after the release of mixed US data showing a larger-than-expected decrease in initial jobless claims and a significant drop in durable goods orders. The US market will be closed on Thursday. Bond yields continue to rise, supporting the ongoing adjustment of the US Dollar. Market sentiment seems poised for a consolidation ahead.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Holds Near 3-Month Highs, Driven by Market ExpectationsThe EUR/USD pair enters a consolidation phase during Tuesday's Asian trading, hovering just below the key level of 1.0900, marking the highest point since August 14th. The pair has seen consecutive gains, surpassing 1.0900, with the upward trend sustained above crucial daily Simple Moving Averages. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 signals overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, overbought conditions persist, but no significant correction signs are evident. Further upside potential remains as long as prices stay above 1,0885. In case of a pullback, the next support level to watch is at 1,0830. On the upside, immediate resistance is around 1,0965, with a break aiming for 1,0990. The US Dollar extended its decline on Monday, propelling the EUR/USD to a three-month high near 1.0950. The prevailing market expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed interest rate hikes continues to weigh on the US Dollar, driven by stock market gains on Wall Street. The Dollar Index (DXY) dropped 0.35% to 103.45, the lowest since August. Market optimism regarding the Fed's rate hike completion, coupled with Wall Street's equity rally, maintains the upward bias for EUR/USD. The Dollar is still vulnerable as the Dollar Index seeks support. On Tuesday, the Fed will release the latest FOMC meeting minutes. In terms of US data, the Fed Chicago National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales are scheduled. In Europe, the upcoming crucial report will be the preliminary PMI for November, set to be released on Thursday. As long as the risk-on environment prevails, the EUR/USD pair has the potential for further gains. However, considering the superior economic performance of the US compared to the Eurozone, fundamental factors continue to support the US Dollar.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Holds Near 3-Month Highs, Approaching 1.0950"The EUR/USD exchange rate has risen for the second consecutive day, surpassing the 1.0900 level. The upward trend remains intact as prices are holding above significant Simple Moving Averages on the daily chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70 indicates overbought conditions. On the 4-hour chart, overbought conditions persist, but there are currently no signs of a major correction. Further upside potential exists as long as prices stay above 1.0885. If a pullback occurs, the next support level to watch is 1,0830. On the upside, immediate resistance is around 1.0965, and a higher breakout aims for the 1.0990 level. The US Dollar extended its decline on Monday, pushing the EUR/USD rate to a three-month high near 1.0950. The bias continues to favor the upside as the US Dollar remains vulnerable. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has completed its interest rate hikes continue to weigh on the US Dollar, and it is further fueled by stock market gains on Wall Street. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell 0.35% to 103.45, its lowest since August. The greenback is still seeking support. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release the latest FOMC meeting minutes. In terms of US data, the Fed's National Activity Index and Existing Home Sales are on the schedule. In Europe, the upcoming key report will be the preliminary PMI for November, scheduled for Thursday. As long as the risk-on environment persists, the EUR/USD pair has the potential for further gains. However, considering the superior economic performance of the US compared to the Eurozone, fundamental factors still support the US Dollar.
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Analysis: Exploring Upward MomentumThe euro has exhibited a week-long uptrend, testing the previously established ascending trendline as a significant resistance level. The 1.09 mark stands out as a substantial barrier, and if successfully surpassed, the market may set its sights on the 1.10 level. Beyond that point, there is potential for the market to extend its upward trajectory. On the downside, multiple support levels exist near the 200-week EMA, particularly around the 1.0720 mark. As the euro charts its course, traders are closely monitoring these key levels, anticipating potential breakthroughs or pullbacks. The dynamics of the currency pair suggest a nuanced interplay of market forces, creating a landscape ripe for strategic analysis and decision-making.
by Larissa-Trader
EURUSDHello, everyone. Since yesterday's evening review, several important developments have taken place. As anticipated, during the Asian and London sessions, we continued to move in the short direction. Following a news-driven movement in the New York session, we absorbed liquidity formed by yesterday's movement and updated the price maximum. On the higher timeframe, we had a raid on the daily fractal formed on Tuesday. I also marked a potential break of the market structure on the hourly timeframe. If the price confirms below, I plan to work in the short direction; otherwise, longs will remain a priority.
by yes_pls_max
EUR/USD Extends Upside Momentum Above 1.0700The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.0700 in the early Asian trading session on Tuesday. Lower US Treasury bond yields are exerting pressure on the US Dollar (USD), providing some support for this currency pair. However, concerns about economic downturn in the Eurozone may limit the Euro's upward trajectory. The EUR/USD exchange rate has increased for the second consecutive day and is holding above the 20-day and 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). Technical indicators on the daily chart suggest a modest bullish trend. However, closing below 1.0615 would negate positive prospects. On the 4-hour chart, the pair is testing the short-term downtrend line around 1,0705, while staying above the support zone at 1,0655. Technical indicators are not providing clear signals. A breakout above 1,0710 would open up opportunities for further strength, with subsequent targets at 1,0735 and then the previous high near 1,0760. On the other hand, an acceleration of the downside may occur if the pair breaks below 1,0650, initially targeting 1,0635 and then 1,0610.
by Larissa-Trader
1
EUR/USD Maintains Modest Gains Near 1.0700"EUR/USD is holding slight gains near the 1.0700 mark in European trading on Monday. The US dollar started the new week on a defensive note, despite higher US bond yields. Traders are awaiting GDP data for the Eurozone and US inflation figures later in the week. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart has dipped below 50, while EUR/USD falls below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating a short-term bearish outlook. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
1
EUR/USD Maintains Position Below 1.0700The EUR/USD pair kicked off the new week on a positive note during the early Monday trading hours in Asia. The recovery of this currency pair is supported by the prevailing weakness of the US Dollar (USD). Having bounced from last week's low of 1.0656, the pair remains constrained below the resistance level of 1.0700. Currently, the main currency pair is trading around 1.0690, marking a 0.04% increase for the day. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined to 60.4 in November from 63.8 in October. The 12-month inflation expectations for the US increased to 4.4% from 4.2%, while the 5-year expectations rose to 3.2% from 3.0%. A crucial upcoming event is the release of the CPI report for October. A better-than-expected outcome from this report could heighten the probability of the Fed raising interest rates again in December. Last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell mentioned that if further policy tightening is deemed appropriate, the central bank would not hesitate to do so. On the other hand, the European Commission will release its economic growth forecast on Monday, with downward adjustments expected for the 2024 growth outlook. Preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone for Q3 is also due, with a quarterly estimate of a 0.1% decrease and an anticipated 0.1% increase on a yearly basis. Additionally, some ECB figures, including Lagarde, De Guindos, Lane, and Villeroy, may reiterate that any discussions about interest rate cuts are premature. The International Monetary Fund stated last week that rapidly rising wages in the euro area could lead to prolonged inflation, suggesting that the European Central Bank should maintain interest rates at or around record highs in the coming year to alleviate pressure on prices. However, the market anticipates a rate cut, possibly as early as April, with a total of 90 basis points of cuts priced in by the end of next year. What are your thoughts on this currency pair?
by Larissa-Trader
2
EUR/USD Under Pressure Post-Disappointing US Data"EUR/USD struggles to find direction on Friday, hovering within a narrow range just below 1.0700. US Consumer Sentiment, falling to 60.4 in November from October's 63.8, adds pressure. Wall Street trades in the red after Thursday's decline, impacting USD demand. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart drops below 50 as EUR/USD slips below the midpoint of the upward regression channel, indicating short-term downside prospects. If EUR/USD fails to stabilize above 1.0680 (midpoint of the upward channel), sellers may remain active. In this scenario, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) adjusts as temporary support at 1.0660, followed by 1.0640 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest downtrend) and 1.0620 (lower limit of the upward channel, SMA 100). On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0700 (50% Fibonacci retracement), 1.0730 (upper limit of the upward channel), and 1.0750 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement).
by Gwen_Humuna
1