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EURUSD Pair Has Negative Bias to the Downside...Be CautiousBy looking at the 4-hour chart and the daily chart, the EUR/USD currency pair has taken a turn to the upside. The pair had rebounded from 1.1211 a hair below our hypothesized bullish entry point of 1.1215. The pair had a 2.5% probability of falling lower than our hypothesized support area. However, we deduced that for something like that to happen, there would have had to be some kind of dovish catalytic speech/sentiment uttered by the European central bank president Draghi or similar dovish news. Therefore, we suspected that sooner or later the pair would attempt to claw back to its hypothesized moving average of 1.1506, but before that happened, the EUR/USD pair would’ve had to elevate toward our 1.1215 mark, which it did. Now, we are convinced that it will continue in the short term toward our next hypothesized target of 1.1361 before it finally gets back to its moving average sweet spot of 1.1506. There is a strong possibility that the pair could surpass its hypothesized moving average of 1.1506 and continue toward our next target of 1.1652 and possibly 1.1798, but this is as far as the pair will go up the charts because fundamentally, the Euro zone economy is weak, and the Eurozone’s economic cycle is nearing its peak. In fact, the EU economy is already acting as if it has commenced its recession cycle. Please click here to see the entire article.
by mstardom
EURUSD ? Hello EURO !! Are we still Short ?I think we still maintain an overall Neutral to Bearish bearish tone if the EURUSD is below 1.1790 . if EURUSD > 1.1790 == Bullish bias if EURUSD < 1.1790 == Bearish bias if EURUSD < 1.1650 == strong Bearish bias With a bearish engulfing candle on 3-hr chart , we are short until 1.1595 Entry: SELL Size: 5 Lots ( Std or Mini or Micro ) Entry Price range : 1.1745 to 1.1703 ( if you got in at the top of this entry price range, the better ) Exit points : TP 1: 1.1670 TP 2: 1.1650 TP 3: 1.1620 TP 4: 1.1595
Short
by developeralgo222
1
Spanish politicians reduce yield % of IBEX 35BME:IBC FX:ESP35 BME:IBC Fear, unconfidence, uncertainly and anothers negative sentiment have come back? Since 2016 we seeing a negative spread between Spanish index #Ibex35 and another European indexes like DY1! #Dax30 FX1! #EuroStoxx50 FY1! #Stoxx600 December 21st, 2015 starts the negative performance of the index (Starts RED BASELINE on daily chart), one day after the mixed results in that first elections. Almost one year to elect a Mariano Rajoy as a president after many elections and hours to discuss to "nowhere" in parlament congress, finally October 29th 2016, Rajoy got the votes to have investiture. On 14 June 2017, FIRST motion of no confidence in the government of Mariano Rajoy requested by Podemos after a string of corruption scandals, was defeated 170 to 82, with PSOE abstention. Then came the Catalunian crisis on second semester of 2017 and STILL continues, with many former funtionaries in jail, anothers in exile like Carles Puigdemont former Catalunian's president of Generalitat. Finally on 25 may 2018, SECOND motion of no confidence requested by main oppositions party (PSOE)... starts a new political crisis increasing the negative performance reaching maximun levels again... Adittionaly, context may not help= Italy case, bonds, ECB politics, debt, euro weak... www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com
FX:ESP35
by UnknownUnicorn1464680
7
Euro Stoxx 50 outbreak The european Index, DJ Euro Stoxx 50, representing the biggest 50 enterprises (marketcapitalisation) in Europe, has crossed the upper limit of the very long symmetrical triangle. The fundamental data from EU-Zone and Europe are positive; only the EURO could be an obstacle because it had gained force in comparison with the US-Dollar. But this should change during this year, because of the tax reform from Trump and the tapering from the FED. The Dollar should strengthen versus the Euro. The european central bank (ECB) has also tapered its QE-Program (with now producing 30 BN Euro per month - out of thin air) but it isn´t expectable to have rising interest rates as well. With a weaker Euro the Global Player in Europe should take profit and have rising exports. Of course there are many risks for the EU-Zone; for example the election in italy where it is expected that the Party of Grillo could win - and he is against all the austerity programs of the EU and the ICF. Technically the Euro Stoxx 50 can profit from its outbreak - if the index doesn´t fall back. Compared with the S&P 500 (blue line) european stocks have much space on the upside. P/E and P/B are also less expensive than in US. indicators: not bullish! - but little signs of a positive trend
INDEX:SX5ELong
by Luettis
News Compilation ahead of Draghi's Speech (Long Bias)Draghi is due to speak tonight during the ECB Press Conference. I guess today this is all market will talk about. The morning session up to this point has not hinted much, aside from EURAUD moving up due to AUD bad data, the rest is kinda sideway. Running into this event I don't have any particular insights, given the structure of first statement, followed by Q&A, there will be a lot of choppy price action during the broadcast. What I'm trying to do in this post is to compile the news watch from various source to get a sense of market's expectation. All in all, not likely to trade this like the CAD rate hike as this is not very direct impact on the currency (yet), I'd prefer to avoid the choppy news. News Compilation: MarketWatch: citing Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING "The stronger euro has made the ECB’s taper tiptoeing even more complicated . While a clear hint on tapering at this week’s meeting could send the euro even higher , potentially undermining the recovery, room to postpone tapering is limited due to bond scarcity" => Weak to Neutral " A Reuters report last week said the rising euro is worrying more policy makers, leaving an announcement on QE tapering at Thursday’s meeting highly unlikely. The report said an announcement might not be ready until December ." => Weak to Neutral “As the ECB is probably not yet unanimous on the first option, we expect that Thursday’s meeting will again be about what Draghi did not say, rather than what he did ,” => Confusion expected Bloomberg: "the ECB is likely to support the consensus view in the marketplace that, as of January 2018 , it will be reducing the pace of monthly asset purchases ." => Strong "This belongs in the context of a gradual phasing out of the program, combined with rate hikes and, much further down the road , an outright contraction of a balance sheet" => Strong " markets have become very comfortable in interpreting the lack of official guidance on the policy normalization as a green light to increase financial bets on the continuation of a low volatility " => Interesting point, if Draghi don't make a clear guidance or if he does make a hawkish one, EUR will still strengthen BK Asset Management: "For this reason, we think the ECB will go ahead with reducing asset purchases on Thursday" => Strong "Most economists expect the ECB to cut asset purchases by 20B euros and if that’s all we see, EUR/USD will break 1.20 but probably struggle to extend its gains above 1.21. If they cut by 30B or more, EUR/USD should hit 1.21. However if they forgo reducing asset purchases and postpone the decision to October or December, EUR/USD will fall to 1.1800 and possibly even lower." => a very clear guidance and scenario analysis from BK The Guardian: "Time to raise eurozone interest rates , says Deutsche Bank chief" => Strong "The ECB is pumping €60bn a month into the markets in an attempt to stimulate growth, making a total of €2tn, and has operated a negative interest rate since 2014." => now BK's estimate makes sense, that's about a 30% to 50% cut to the supply of EUR in the market My interpretation so far is that general market expecting a strong EUR thus the alpha bet is on the short side. We should watch for a very specific talking point of 1) a guidance of how they gonna taper and better yet 2) an announcement of tapering itself. Paring this kind of sentiment with AUD weak data, I think the pair will drifts past resistance 1.495. We still need more meaningful price action from UK session to get a hint of what European big boys thinking but I will just go ahead and play into the news with a very wide stop and exit before the news announcement.
Long
by vietbach1990
EUR/JPY down by 1.19%Daily outlook: EUR/JPY down by 1.19% Contrary to expectations, the Euro broke out from a symmetrical triangle in the downside direction. In the process, the currency rate managed to bypass the medium-term ascending channel’s bottom trend-line, the monthly PP and R1 and the weekly S1 and S2. Even though 70% of traders continue to remain bearish on this currency pair, a number of technical indicators suggest that the 128.80 mark represents a point, where the rate became oversold. Due to that, the Euro might restore some of the lost positions and surge towards the above weekly S1 at 129.45. However, this climb upstairs is expected to have a short-term effect, as majority of traders continue to hold short positions. Moreover, now the rate is located below the 55-, 100- and 200-hour SMAs, which will exercise additional pressure and compromise any attempts to clear a path to the top.
by UnknownUnicorn890690
Reflection: EUR/USD, Tapering.. is ECB crazy or is not?This post is not intended to be an investment advice or a prediction. It´s simply a look at the current economic situation in the Eurozone based on macroeconomic data and historical behavior. - - - - Mario Draghi woke up the beast in Sintra (Portugal) with a speech that was interpreted as hawkish. At that time everyone understood the possibility of tapering by the end of 2017. As a result: investors bought euro in a massive way. At the subsequent meeting of the ECB, Mario Draghi tried to contain the rise of the euro with a dovish speech but finally the pressure of the press brought the magic words and Draghi talked about the possible discussion of tapering in September. As a result: investors bought euro again on a massive way. The magic word for the next few months is: Tapering!!. Is Draghi hawkish or dovish? and most important... is Europe ready for tapering or even more, for a rise of interest rate?. Let's take a look at the USA in 2014 and compare with Europe: 1. Tapering in the US was announced in 2013 and was subject to a couple of goals: an inflation rate of 2% and an unemployment rate below 6%. Tapering finally began in 2014 after 2 years with an inflation rate consolidating around 2%. At this moment inflation rate in Europe still cannot go up to 2%. In fact, it has only arrived a couple of times this year. Moreover the price of energy (brent) is on the ground, something that does not help. On the other hand, unemployment rate is above 9%. Far from its previous levels in 2008, before financial crisis. 2. The debt of the eurozone (and several of its countries) is within the world top 15. Would it be convenient to raise interest rate and pay more for that debt immediately? 3. Germany is the strongest economy of Europe and an exporting country. A stronger Euro through a raise of types does not seem the most convenient in the near future. 4. The euro has just broken an active range since 2015 in mid-summer with low trading volumes. This area is also 0.23% fibo of the 2008´s big fall. After 5 consecutive months of climb without a correction. Is a strong/key resistance like this so easy to break? Apparently it is. Due to a weak dollar involved in a political drama. It´s true that macroeconomic data are improving in Eurozone but is it enough for tapering this year? Draghi will play its cards and we´ll believe him... or not.
by DiegoRV
2