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EUR/JPY - SHORT; Geopolitics matters - Center stage.Given the inevitability of; 1) An abject Chinese population collapse - already under way -, necessitating the consequent *** massive DEurbanization, DEindustrialization *** (leaving in its wake ~800 million subsistence "gardeners" - No, not even farms, in the traditional sense of scale!); 2) Japan having *** the only other (beside the US) long range Navy *** capable to protect shipping/supply lines, anywhere on the globe; (While China couldn't defend it's own coast line, if push came to shove. All that The "Chinese Menace" propaganda is laughable, at best. China is already dead, it just hasn't rolled over, yet, fully.) 3) The EU's obvious, ongoing Hara Kiri (the kind that would fill every samurai with envy), the demise of the Euro is a foregone conclusion. (How long for total EU disintegration?? ... A) Most likely measured in a couple years; B) It is well under way!. 4) Germany's full and unmitigated retreat from a collapsed Chinese market - the US filling the vacuum in every imaginable corner on the globe; 5) Japan being *** the only other (alongside Taiwan, S. Korea and the US) precision manufacturer of high-technology, of any scale ***; 6) ... ... 12) ... There are at least a dozen existential reasons - already well within grasp! - all of which will leave Japan likely the only industrial power standing in Asia, while Germany (as is the whole of Europe) will be forced to backtrack to the '60s. - Not to the 1960s, no ... to the 1860s! The technicals are also favorable to start shorting this pair from here, ... on and on ... onto forever. p.s. The rise of France in Europe and Japan's in Asia - relative to their current industrial and geopolitical pull- is all but a foregone conclusion. France being the "youngest" industrial and agricultural power in the EU while Japan, having survived - so far - their own demographic apocalypse, will have ring side seats to revel in the total and abject Chinese collapse. Germany also "only" lacks any and all domestic energy or food resources (except Sauerkraut), while also beset with a demographic apocalypse that is about to hit its full stride.
Short
by Nemo_Confidat
THE EASIEST ARBITRAGE EVER IS RIGHT IN FRONT OF OUR EYES? LONG US, SHORT EU Hello, these two charts seem to show an identical background situation for the two economies (US and German), however, the economy in US and EU is very different (among other explanations, TFP - total factor productivity is, and always has been positive in the US, while it is negative and, most importantly, decreasing since many years in Europe; US has never lowered rates below 0, while Europe did, breaking the Marxist M-G-M model, which means Money-Goods-Money1 cycle, and transforming it into a mere M to M1 model, money to money1, where M1 >M, skipping the "Goods" part of the cycle, basically creating a system where Money that creates other money out of thin air). The markets (especially the European ones) are discounting the fact that there will be no recession based on last data, and that we will have a soft landing after all in US. I believe this will not be the case but it is not important now. The important thing is that, European investors are believing that the same will happen in EU, where, however, the increase of interest rates is far from being done, and inflation has not peaked yet! Surprisingly, European investors are continuing to consider the two economies as identical, simply because in the last 40 years they moved together. However, they forget the 10-15 years of QE and the fact that the world after it will not simply continue to be the same as before, as we simply can erase these 15 years of history and put in conjunction the two extremities. They are pricing the two markets as it they were at the beginning of capitalism, while we are probably at the end of it, or better at a new phase of it. A phase in which US adapted to the MDM model by increasing the productive cycle (they have companies like Tesla, Amazon, Google) while in Europe we persevered in the aberration of the M-> M1. LONG US (Dow jones), SHORT EU (Dax) IThis is why, n my opinion, what we have in front of us is a win-win situation. If the markets will continue, in my opinion wrongly, to consider these two markets almost perfectly correlated, while they are going up even if at least one of the two will have a recession ahead, we will be covered in any case. case 1 - recession in USA, recession in EU the recession will hit stronger in Europe-> The position will lose on long US less than what it would gain from the short on EU (DAX) case 2 - no recession in USA, recession in EU double gain (from the on long US and from the short on EU) case 3 - no recession in USA, no recession in EU US economy will perform better then EU : the long position on US will gain more than what it would LOSE from the short on EU It is worth noting that both indices are surprisingly at 8% from their respective peaks of 2021 but the strength of the trend (red line on the second indicator - DMI) is very low. Of course, the strategy will need to be adjusted with the sizes so that every side has the same notional value in USD - What do you think?
DJ:DJI
by edutradinguru
Short STOXX EUROPE 600 OIL & Gas sectorWe are having here a very well structured trade idea, exploiting the confluence of high important technical factors, mean reverting stance, and extreme positioning in the Oil and Gas space thanks for a Long Inflation lean by most investors this year. Into year end and preparing for 2023, Fact is that after such a good performance some will be tempted to take profit especially with a potential FED pivot in [/b preparation based on Inflation peaking. Saying it simply and pragmatically : if you made money being long the sectors or High dividend stocks in that space, that's a great achievement, but the forward looking factors are clearly pointing lower. the USD price action is clearly indicating of Inflation peaking and is highly supportive of this trading idea. Bottom line: Sell / Short SXEP Sector using this Multi Month horizontal trendline and overbought technical indicators
EUREX:FSTE1!Short
by ArisopeCapital
1
Euro up or down?EURUSD closed the year well and above many key support levels, and it even closed above several diagonals, as did several other currencies vs. the USD. On the one hand, the USD may have peaked, especially as the DXY swept a critical low and retested its 2015-2020 highs. The year has started with a EURUSD dump, and the pair has closed below its Monthly and Yearly P. This isn't great, but given the low liquidity, it could simply be a trap. In some of my past analyses, I had thought it was possible that it would go down to 1.055 to test an untested zone and then go higher, but it went higher first. Recovery may be coming as it has come down and tested the VP PoC in this area. There are many reasons why I think the USD could go down and EUR could strengthen, but I won't go into them here. I only want to focus on the current TA, as a close above the key pivots could indicate that the market is going much higher. It could go up to 1.08 before going lower, or it might not even go lower for a long time. Until I see it close below 1.035, I have to be neutral/bullish, and if it does close below 1.035, then I think 1.01 is the next target. My point is that although this doesn't look like the cleanest long, I do see the potential in this trade, and I think that going long here with a stop below 1.047 or 1.035 makes sense.
by BitcoinMacro
Short position for EURGBP + daily resistanceThe orange line is a daily resistance that I use a long time ago. As we can see RSI already crossed the 50, after a overbought zone, together with MACD we can see after the RSI change the direction MACD had crossed the signal line and also changed it. And joining these indicators we've the BB where the candles had already crossed the MA, and the BB lower line is moving away from upper line, showing us a great continuation of the downtrend Analysis of the 4H time-frame is the same, all the indicators are moving in the same direction as 1H tf
Short
by AFCapital21
Germany30 Technical AnalysisHello traders! Europe and most dominant economies of it such as England, Germany and France are under fire but regardless good news from USA have eased the situation and some pressure. It reasonable to buy some of the positions on retest of recent support levels such as a historic 1W timeframe- 13602 / 13011. Bearish trend has been stopped and looking for more upside in the upcoming weeks. Like and subscribe if you agree and you want to discuss the ideas all together.
OANDA:DE30EURLong
by federalAntelop4954
European Central Bank Preview – Time to PivotDespite facing the unknown external shock of a war, the Eurozone economy’s growth has been resilient in the first three quarters of the year. Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in Q3, easing from a 0.8% increase in Q2 2022 aided by the rise in government spending alongside an improvement in inflation adjusted trade surplus . However, this is likely to change in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023 as COVID reopening demand fades. Eurozone recession remains a key risk until Q1 2023 Europe is set to embark on a harsh winter, and with savings rates extending the decline from a 1.7% drop in Q2, consumer spending is likely to come under pressure. The 1.8% month on month falls in euro area retail sales in October is consistent with the notion that real income squeeze is now catching up the with consumers. Services spending rose only 1.5% in Q3 compared to the 3.1% jump in Q2 2022 . The labour market has remained fairly resilient as Eurozone unemployment hit a new low of 6.5% in October, pushed down by falling unemployment in Southern Europe, the Netherlands, Finland and Austria. However, unemployment is likely to rise as the economic slowdown and tightening financial conditions impact hiring. That being said, fiscal policy could come to the rescue as major Eurozone governments have earmarked €573Bn into the economy to shield the private sector from the upcoming fallout in economic activity. Inflation in the Eurozone declined more than expected from 10.6% in October to 10% in November. Yet it’s hard to say for certain that the inflation rate has passed its peak as it is largely dependent on the fluctuations in energy prices. Core inflation remained at 5% in November and is likely to remain close to 5% through Q1 2023 . Companies continue to transfer higher input costs to consumers and in spite of an approaching recession, we expect this process of cost-push inflation to extend into 2023, keeping price pressures higher for longer. European Central Bank (ECB) split between the doves and hawks Ms Isabel Schnabel (a member of the executive board of the ECB) warned in November that loose fiscal policy risks adding to underlying inflation pressures by boosting consumption and reducing the incentive for consumers and businesses to save energy. We would argue that while the volume of relief packages is large, they are insufficient to provide complete relief for all consumers and companies. Ms Schnabel also noted that, “that the room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited, even as we are approaching estimates of the ‘neutral rate’”. This hawkish sentiment was echoed by Dutch central bank head Klaas Knot in his statement that risks are tilted towards the ECB doing too little to combat rising inflation, noting that an economic slowdown, or perhaps even a recession, is needed to bring inflation under control. President Lagarde stressed that she would be surprised if inflation has already peaked, as there is too much uncertainty regarding the pass-through of high energy costs at the wholesale level into the retail level. She added that the ECB may have to go into restrictive territory with key rates. On the other hand, the head of the French central bank, Villeroy, who has often anticipated the actual ECB decisions in his statements, spoke out in favour of 50 basis points. Even hawks such as Bundesbank President Nagel and Estonian Mueller seem to be able to come to terms with a hike of just 50 basis points. Further clarity on Quantitative Tightening (QT) The ECB is likely to meet consensus expectations this week of narrowing the pace of rate hikes to 50Bps on 15 December, following two 75Bps rate hikes in September and October. This decision will lift its deposit and refinancing rates to 2% and 2.5% respectively. Neither peaking inflation nor a recession will give the ECB a reason to hold back from raising rates in Q1 2023, but both suggest that risks are tilted towards a slower pace of tightening. The outlook for the balance sheet, and more specifically QT, will be another key theme at this week’s meeting. It will be interesting to see whether the ECB will be pressed to sell bonds outright or stick with roll-off. We would expect the central bank to begin with an Asset Purchase Program (APP) roll-off equivalent to a monthly reduction of €25Bn in the balance sheet on average. Currently the ECB is still using Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) reinvestments to compress spreads and the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) remains at its disposal if conditions deteriorate further. Both these tools limit how far the ECB can go with QT. Sources: 1Eurostat as of 30 November 2022 2National Accounts as of 30 November 2022 3Bruegel as of 31 October 2022 4Bloomberg as of 30 November 2022
FRED:ECBASSETSW
by aneekaguptaWTE
Engie's stalling momentum signifies turnaround.Engie - 30d expiry - We look to Sell a break of 14.09 (stop at 14.61) We are trading at overbought extremes. Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. Short term RSI is moving lower. Momentum is stalling with the posting of new highs and indicates bearish divergence. A higher correction is expected. A break of the recent low at 14.12 should result in a further move lower. Our profit targets will be 12.82 and 12.52 Resistance: 14.70 / 15.00 / 15.50 Support: 14.10 / 13.55 / 13.00 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
EURONEXT:ENGIShort
by Saxo
€ - Where To Next?€ - Where To Next? $EUR - BUY THE DIP?! As from my previous posts via trading view can be seen I was very bullish medium term hitting the target areas are currently at. However, lets take a bird eyes view of EUR! EUR currently at key resistance on Monthly - 1.03. Price may decline back towards support areas of 1.02/1.01 areas before heading higher IF we get out of this downwards channel drawn. Now let's not forget those that are into candle stick formation - you will start to enjoy looking at the major FX charts at higher TF. Above 8 EMA - 1.07 - 1.11 can easily be achieved. Fundamentally: Fundamentally strong about the EUR apart from lower print of CPI and the market had got very excited. Shorter term I'd be looking for pull back towards support areas stated above. Medium term if Fed pivot dovish less rate hikes as high, expect euro to escalate higher. The energy bet has been reversed, take a look at Nat Gas price is very lower and the capacity of energy reserved is at a level which there is nothing to be feared about, at this moment of time. Don't forget now that inflation spreads widen EUR - USD - it leaves a potential more hawkish ECB relative to Fed which again was stated in previous chart posted. Now of course the Fed could pivot and turn hawkish but I am doubtful on that and we could go into other factors such as seasonality and positioning. In my opinion trade what you see, not what you think and don't forget to get a greater R/R. All the best, Trade Journal
by Trade_Journal
Progress on ‘Fit for 55’ breathes life into EUA marketOn Friday 28 October, EU carbon emission allowances (EUA) had extended their largest weekly gain in 5 years following a strong rally over the preceding six days1. This happened during a week when the first ‘Fit for 55’ proposal was agreed2. The EU has strengthened targets for CO2 emissions from road transportation. To understand this price action, it is important to reflect on what happened in the EUA market between August and October. EUA prices fell sharply in August after reaching an all-time high of EUR98.42/MT3. Two main things triggered the collapse in prices. First, Poland’s Prime Minister called for a suspension of the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) to deal with the stress of rising prices. Poland’s state-owned electricity company even launched an advertising campaign blaming the ETS for the country’s high energy prices. Second, there had been much talk about reforming Article 29a of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Directive – the mechanism designed to reduce instability caused by price spikes. Despite the high price volatility of EUAs and the sharp price increases in the past two years, the clauses under Article 29a have never been invoked. In September we outlined how the past sequence of events, that were weighing on EUA prices, were unlikely to materialise further. The suspension of ETS had neither any legal basis nor any political will. And the triggering of Article 29a is an ambiguous process and it wasn’t certain that its thresholds were likely to be hit. Even if we disregard the technicalities of Article 29a, the principle remains that the ETS Market Stability Reserve was designed to reduce the historic oversupply of EUAs and used only to counter any major shocks to the system. As a result, we took the view that markets had overreacted even though the fundamentals for EUA remained strong. In the blog, we also suggested that post summer, we expect to see more momentum on the ‘Fit for 55’ legislative front. As per the press release by European Council from 27 October 2022: The Council and the European Parliament reached a provisional political agreement on stricter CO2 emission performance standards for new cars and vans. The goal of the agreement is to move towards zero-emission mobility. Pending a formal adoption, the co-legislators agreed to a: 55% CO2 emission reduction target for new cars and 50% for new vans by 2030 compared to 2021 levels 100% CO2 emission reduction target for both new cars and vans by 2035. The proposal to revise the CO2 emissions performance standards for cars and vans is part of the ‘Fit for 55’ package. Presented by the European Commission on 14 July 2021, the package aims to enable the EU to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels and to achieve climate neutrality in 2050. At WisdomTree, we believe this development sends a strong signal to markets that the EU is committed to the ‘Fit for 55’ package. As rules covering other sectors not currently legislated under the ETS (like buildings and shipping) are unveiled, we may see more positive price momentum in EUAs. This does not rule out volatility in the short-term. Europe is still faced with a precarious energy situation over winter. Oil and natural gas prices can have an indirect effect on EUAs. For example, if energy supplies are ample and industrial activity continues at or close to normal levels, demand for EUAs will also stay at normal levels. If activity needs to be curtailed, emissions will automatically fall and so will the demand for EUAs. In the medium term however, Europe’s focus remains on the energy transition. REpowerEU – the policy proposal to wean off Russian energy dependency – also focuses on speeding up the energy transition away from hydrocarbons in general. In short, the energy shock is unlikely to derail EU ETS from being the cornerstone of EU’s climate policy. The recent rally in EUA prices appears to be a realisation of this from markets. 1 Source: Bloomberg. 3 On 19 August 2022, source: Bloomberg.
ICEEUR:ECF1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Equity outlook Restrictive policy and geopolitical risks raise the odds of a global recession What a difference a year makes. 2022 saw the ‘reopening’ of markets from the COVID pandemic evolve into a ‘recession’. Margaret Thatcher put it succinctly on 27 February 1981 – “The lesson is clear. Inflation devalues us all.” Monetary policy has been on the most pronounced tightening campaign in decades as inflation progressed from being transitory to potentially permanent due to the energy crisis. Politics is driving economics, not the other way around In the pre-war global economy, globalisation was an important source of low inflation. A large amount of global savings had nowhere to be deployed, rendering interest rates lower on a global basis. However, post-war, global defence spending has risen to a level not seen in decades as national security consumes government’s agendas. There will be vast opportunity costs involved, tied to the increase in world military spending. We expect the rate of globalisation to take a back seat, as Europe would never want to be as dependent on Russian energy as it is today. In a similar vein, the US does not want to fall privy to the same mistake Europe made and will aim to strengthen ties with Taiwan in order to ensure the smooth flow of chips. National security is inflationary We are in the midst of a war in Europe, owing to the brutal battle being waged by Russia in Ukraine. While the war is centred in Ukraine, the reality is we are all paying the price of this war by allowing it to continue. There is another war brewing in the background that we must not fail to ignore. The United States’ deepening ties with Taiwan is aggravating China. The Taiwan issue remains sticky. Taiwan’s role in the world economy largely existed below the radar, until it came to prominence as the semiconductor supply chain was impacted by disruptions to Taiwanese chip manufacturing. Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 20201. Tensions between Taiwan and China could have a big impact on global semiconductor supply chains. The United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. The desire for control of technologies, commodities, and straits is paving the way for economic wars ahead. China needs to get its house in order The economic headwinds that China faces are multifaceted. Unfortunately, policy easing from China in H1 2022 has been insufficient to arrest the extent of the slowdown. Of late, China’s State Council stepped up its economic stimulus further by announcing a 19-point stimulus package worth $146 billion (under 1% of GDP) to boost economic growth2. The property markets continue to deteriorate. The problem stems from a lack of financing among many developers that is needed for construction of their residential projects. All of this came about from the central government’s decision in 2020 to introduce the ‘three red lines’ policy to rein in excessive borrowing in the real estate sector. Vulnerable property developers are struggling to secure capital to sustain their businesses. Alongside, demand for housing has deteriorated due to intermittent COVID lockdowns, weakening economy, and doubts over developers’ ability to deliver completed housing units. However, the weakness in China’s economy extends beyond the property sector with rising unemployment and energy shortages. Chinese earnings growth since Q3 2019 has lagged the rest of the world. China has also suffered significant capital outflows, owing to its adherence to COVID-zero. This has set back its rebalancing towards a consumption-driven economy, rendering China to remain more addicted to export-led growth. However, export demand has begun to weaken as the rest of the world slows. US is in the early innings of a recession The US economy appears a safe haven amidst the ongoing energy crisis as it is less exposed to the vagaries of Russian oil supply. It also recovered faster from the pandemic compared to the rest of the world. The labour market remains strong as jobs continue to be added, wages accelerate, consumption has continued to grow (albeit more slowly), and unemployment remains at a five-decade low. Despite the recent upswing in GDP growth, caused by noise in the foreign trade numbers and technicalities in inventory data, the big picture of a slowing economy in the face of aggressive monetary tightening remains intact. There are mounting signs of slowing too, especially in the housing sector owing to the rapid rise in mortgage rates. Earnings in 2022 have reflected the challenging environment being faced by US corporates with earnings growth for companies grinding down to 3.17%3.The more value-oriented sectors such as energy, industrials, and materials continue to outperform. Looking ahead, earnings revision breadth for the S&P 500 Index are in deeply negative territory suggesting downside is coming from an earnings growth standpoint. Core inflationary pressures remain concerning, especially housing rents and medical inflation – components that are typically much stickier compared to goods and transport inflation. The stickier high services inflation reflects strong labour market dynamics as services are labour intensive and housed domestically. The Federal Reserve (Fed) appears unwilling to declare victory in its war against inflation. As we look ahead, it’s clear that the Fed’s role in quelling inflation without tipping the economy into recession will take centre stage. Harsh winter ahead for Europe Europe is heading for a recession in response to a strong external shock. Gas flows from Russia to Europe have declined substantially to 10% of their levels in 2021, causing gas prices to spike. The Russian war in Ukraine is showing no signs of abating, with Russia deciding on a partial mobilisation after a rather successful Ukrainian counter-offensive. These higher energy prices are squeezing real disposable income out of consumers and raising costs higher for corporates, causing further curtailment of output. The energy driven surge in headline inflation to 10.7% year on year4 has sent consumer confidence to a record low, leaving Europe in a bind. Fiscal policy in focus The European Union (EU) aims to define the direction and speed of Europe’s energy policy restructuring through REPowerEU strategy. However, crucial energy policy decisions have been taken by EU countries at national level. In an effort to shield European consumers from rising energy costs, EU governments have ear marked €573 billion, of which €264 billion has been set aside by Germany alone. In most European countries, both energy regulation and levies are set at the national level. The chart below illustrates the funding allocated by selected EU countries to shield households and firms from rising energy prices and their consequences on the cost of living. No pivot yet from the ECB We experienced a decade of almost no inflation and quantitative easing in Europe. We have now entered a phase in which the European Central Bank (ECB) has gone ahead with its third major policy rate5 increase in a row this year, thereby making substantial progress in withdrawing monetary policy accommodation. The ECB remains eager to have policy choices dominated by risks, rather than the base case, owing to which more rate hikes are coming. If Eurozone inflation continues surprising to the upside, the ECB will have to continue raising rates and determine when to activate the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) to support the periphery. We expect the ECB to take the deposit rate to 2.5% by March, as it continues to see risks to inflation tilted to the upside both in the short and long term. A tightening cycle into a slower-growth macro landscape has never been helpful for equities. European equities are faced with an extremely challenging backdrop ranging from high energy prices, growing cost pressures, negative earnings revisions estimates, and cooling growth. Amid the sell-off in equity markets in the first half of this year, European equities currently trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3x, marking the steepest discount versus its long-term average of 21x compared to other major markets. The risk of a recession to a certain degree is being priced into European equity markets. Conclusion In our view, the global economy is projected to avoid a full-blown downturn; however, we expect to see a series of individual country recessions take shape at different points in time. Evident from recent data, the downturn in the US is expected in the second half of 2023 whilst the Eurozone and United Kingdom will enter a recession by Q4 this year. Contrary to the rest of the world’s key central banks, China and Japan are expected to keep monetary policy accommodative which should help buffer some of the slowdown. Given the highly uncertain environment, investors may look to consider US and Chinese equities, whilst potentially reducing weighting towards European equities. Across factors, we continue to tilt to the value, dividend, and quality factors given the expectations for weak economic growth, higher rates, and elevated inflation.
ICEUS:MWL1!
by aneekaguptaWTE
Endgame for central banks far from doneThis week the UK economy posted its highest inflation reading in 41 years rising 11.1% year on year (yoy) in October. The recent jump is largely the result of the uprating of the household energy price cap in October. Core inflation moved sideways at 6.5% yoy. We expect this to represent the peak for UK inflation. As the base effects of high energy prices begin to factor in, headline inflation in the UK is likely to fall. At the same time, the ongoing recession is likely to strip away the underlying price pressures. This has been evident in lacklustre consumer demand alongside waning housing market activity. UK Government claws back its credibility with the Autumn Statement Meanwhile the UK Government’s fiscal statement released this week1, confirmed significant fiscal austerity with spending cuts and widening of the tax base amounting to around 2% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) after five years, although its mainly backloaded. The energy price guarantee will now have its cap for average household dual tariff annual bill lifted from £2500 to £3000 from April 2023 and remain in place for a further 12 moths. This is less generous than the original plan to cap bills at £2500 for two years. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) analysis suggests that the measures announced in the Autumn statement reduce the depth and length of the recession this year and next but leave the economy on a similar growth trajectory over the medium term. We expect real GDP to contract by 1.3% next year followed by growth of 2% in 2024. With this is mind, we expect the Bank of England (BOE) to pause its tightening cycle once rates get to 3.5% in December followed by 50Bps of cuts in H2 2023. Eurozone to endure a short recession Owing to the external supply shock, Eurozone has faced a similar inflation narrative as the UK. In October Eurozone inflation reached 10.6% yoy. We expect inflation to remain high in the next few months, however starting early next year, the annual rates should decline aided by the base effects from the surge in energy prices in 2022. Owing to which we expect European Central Bank to continue to tighten monetary policy until Q1 2023. On the positive side, while Eurozone will endure a recession in Q4 2022 and Q1 2023, we expect the recession to be less deep than previously expected owing to the less dire gas situation. This was evident in the November ZEW survey, which showed expectations gauge for the economy in the six months ahead improve significantly to -38.7 in November from -59.2 in October. This remains in line with our view that in six months’ time the Eurozone economy should be on its way out of a recession. Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers singing from the same hymn book Fed officials backed expectations they will moderate interest-rate increases to 50 basis points next month, while stressing the need to keep hiking into 2023. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said policy makers should increase interest rates to at least 5% to 5.25% to curb inflation. He also warned of further financial stress ahead. Bullard’s comments came a day after San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said a pause in rate hikes was “off the table.” Fed Governor Waller (one of the more hawkish Fed officials) emphasized that while rate hikes will likely slow to 50bp in December, the ultimate destination or “cruising altitude” will depend on labour market and inflation data. Waller echoed Atlanta Fed President Bostic’s concerns about labour costs pushing up service sector prices which in our view remains the key upside risk to inflation even as core goods prices have slowed. Fears are mounting that relentless rates increases will hit economic growth, with a critical segment of the Treasury yield curve at the most steeply inverted in four decades, historically such an inversion has tied in with a US recession. Maintaining a value bias within equities Amidst the challenging backdrop for global equities, we have observed the value factor outperforming the growth factor by 17.3%2 in 2022. Across global markets, European equities are trading at the deepest discount (32%) from price to earnings (p/e) ratio to their 15-year average owing to fears of the energy crisis being detrimental to the economy. The recent 3Q 2022 earnings season provided evidence that European earnings have remained stubbornly resilient despite the broader macro turmoil. A deeper dive into the sector level suggest that energy, transport, utilities and healthcare have seen some of the biggest increases to their Earnings Per Share (EPS) estimates in 2022. The WisdomTree Europe Equity Income Index outperformed the MSCI Europe Index in 2022. The performance attribution highlighted below illustrates that the higher exposure to value sectors such as materials, financials, healthcare, industrials, and energy contributed to the outperformance.
FRED:T5YIE
by aneekaguptaWTE
1
Euro Crash. ( Updated ) O.o We update the analysis of the Euro that we have already done on other occasions. I think it's very easy to see what happens here. - Bearish Channel, bouncing off institutional support or resistance zones, but with a dark future. Where the highest probability will be to see the Euro again at $0.85 very soon in 2023 (as we discussed in previous analyses) but also after a break of perhaps 1 and a half years of setback and relief. We will be able to live a new strong Fall until the year 2026 where we could see a Euro in values ​​of $0.75 and finally for the year 2030 a fall of up to $0.64 to $0.56. As we can see, it is NOT safe to maintain any currency other than the USD, since this is the dominant one, but the dollar does not protect us. The dollar is very damaged with a loss of more than 98% of the purchasing power of citizens over the years, but within all currencies it is the STRONGEST. - On the other hand we will be able to see that the projections for the rest of the currencies are also horrendous, with which it will not be an isolated case only for the euro. We may see a Pound (GBP) at $0.85 by 2026 and up to $0.50 by 2030 if the trend DOES NOT CHANGE. And if he hasn't done it in all these years... why should he now? - At the same time we can observe the currency of Japan (Japanese Yen) This currency seemed to be quite respected against the dollar, but that is over. We are facing a macro figure of change in trend. (A pattern known as the Inverted Headshoulder, + Bottom Round + Past Trend Break + Trend Reversal Confirmation by Breaking Previous Relative Highs) It is time to worry and go. We are about to witness a loss of Value with respect to the dollar of at least 50%, 60%, 70% and the Japanese Yen up to values ​​of 150% (in case of breaking the levels of 160) from June of the year 2021 until the year 2030
Short
by javieralcazarono
IMPORTANT BREAKOUT - Opportunities in SMALL CAPSThe price made a significant move, breaking out of the channel of lower highs it was forming during the year. Probably will see a retest, before climbing higher. Next resistance between 14000 - 14700. European markets already capitulated, although the S&P 500 hasn't yet. The European Economy's future doesn't look bright. Nevertheless, I think that the market already priced these risks. Exciting opportunities in Small Caps in Europe. Do not follow the crowd, be OPEN-MINDED, and be CONTRARIAN. Good luck with your investments.
EUREX:FDXM1!Long
by GenadiYankov
USDPLN - still going uphi, best regards from Poland, from my work I see that USDPLN can hit 5.4 zl or even 5.6 zl I think that we are on the beginning of creating one of the shoulders - waiting for a head, even one head or even two heads... Situation is still dramatic - FED officially said that it is fighting with inflation. Still. It is major and the most important factor and risk in this game. Then we got war, still, without any conclusion how it will end... many scenarios are being plays. I do not believe in atomic attack. I think that this war will be to last drop of blood. Like Armenia and Azerbaijan conflict. Major issue - still Europe is without gas, oil, no working pipelines for German, Poland. France and Italy or Spain are going very good. I wish you good luck in this hard game, But remember the most important and cycles. We got economical cycles and we see that there is one being played on USDPLN - Long. Look on the chart in long term - compare 2000 highs, then lows and see where goes arrows.
Long
by WinterManOnTheSky