EUR/USD breakout As mentioned in my previous post the pair broke below the rising wedge and failed to recover.
The ECB meeting today also disappointed with its dovish message and downgraded growth forecasts.
Also, the committee is launching TLTRO program soon which also increased the pressure on the pair.
My initial target for the rising wedge breakout is 1.1180 which is also 61.8% fibo level of the 2016-2017 up move.
The Ecb today made this move happen faster than anticipated.
I don't recommend selling at this level since EUR/USD is highly oversold and might retrace a little bit to mid 1.12's.
Target to the downside is 1: 1.118 and 2:1.11 psychological level.
Good luck
Europe
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term
In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend.
Short and mid term
From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
EUR/USD and Mario Draghi ?! Ready to fall !The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European economic situation is getting worse. Neither deposit rates and interest rates will be increased.
The main trend is now bearish in daily and weekly time frame, the price continues to move under the EMA 20 periods, and under the bearish ichimoku cloud, for the static level for a trend inversion (at 1.15) seems to be too strong to be passed in the short term, the price is rejected since the end of September.
The target, at this point, if Draghi confirmed the hypotheses declared in the conference on January 24th, would be in the support zone between 1.10 and 1.08.
EURUSD Long Entry - Retesting the RangeSince the first quarter of 2015, the EUR/USD has been in an accumulation range until a breakout to the upside in May 2017.
Price has now pulled back to the POC (point of control) on the weekly chart, which is a retest of the prior range.
A weekly buy pivot is now forming at the 50% Fibonacci level. A long entry signal on the daily chart has now printed.
FTSE likely to recover to 7200 levelsFTSE is at an interesting level. It has completed five waves to the upside after a major correction. These five waves could form an A wave of an ABC correction or the first wave of a new Elliott wave to the upside. Regardless, it is likely to complete another set of five waves to the upside either as Wave c or as Wave iii after completing the correction underway in Wave B or Wave ii.
To complete wave b or ii currently underway, FTSE is expected to first recover and then drop to around 6700 level from where wave iii or c could start.
PS: This analysis is just for educational purposes and is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Please do your own research and trade at your own risk.
The Brexit will put the UK100 on a huge downmovmentGood evening,
Looking at the current SHS in the UK100 and it currently breaking trough the Neckline, it is fair to say that a Downtrend will occur.
However if you look at it from a political and Economical standpoint its even clearer whats going to happen.
Once the "Hard" Brexit will take place the Economics in Great Brittain will decrease immensely as well as the ones in Europe.
So looking at the big Downtrend that is currently not been broken a short position can definetly can be recommend.
What do you think about the Brexit and what it will hold in its place?
I`m quit sure that the next strong downmovment in the DAX ,the USTECH100 as well as in the UK100
is about to happen right now our at the end of this week.
Feel free to comment and say your opinion.
-Aaron Akkuzu
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden.
If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
EUR USD triangle bearish breakoutEUR/USD broke below the symmetrical triangle it has been stuck in for around two months on the 4 hour chart following disappointing economic datas in Europe, which decreased the probability of a rate hike by the ECB in 2019. A weekly close below the highlighted area might indicate a continuation of the downtrend and a lower range for the pair. Next target for bears is the 2018 low near the 1.12 figure
GBPUSD Short / Doom Drop incoming?The decision of the Brexit Referendum resulted in the key price level of 1.43 to be broken in 2016.
This support turned into resistance and the price successfully rejected the price in the beginning of the year.
A nice short opportunity presents itself: Wait for the weekly candle to close below 1.2730
First Take Profit 1.2509 (0.786 FIB retracement level) (conservative TP)
Second Take Profit 1.2251 (all time low) (good TP)
Third Take Profit 1.0011 (risky TP)
EURUSD Inverse Head and Shoulders patternI think EURUSD will rise to the inverse head and shoulder neckline for a short upwards rally and then going back to the downtrend. For longterm prospect on the price of EURUSD we will have to watch for the actions of federal reserve chair powell, and as well the upcoming G20 summit on trade talks with both China and the EU.
#GBPjpy -- 200 pip swing? My trade plan for the weekAhead of the opening Sunday night, here is my trade plan for the week: Most trades will be to the short side and may present multiple opportunities, yielding potential for 200 or more pips!
For this week. I'm looking for a move back up into the large yellow zone, where depending on price's movement, will effect a trade; could be at the open, could be later on.
First initial target will be breaking last weeks LO's @ around 143.80/50. With previous LO's from October, I would expect a bounce upwards, and if high enough, present yet another opportunity to accumulate a short position within the larger yellow zone, in either case, targeting lower LO's just under the October and early September LO's @ 143.00/142.50.
Short Sell Ibex 35 (Spanish Index) Many of the European Indices are entering a bear market (50sma<200sma).
Shorting is difficult this early in a trend because counter-trend rallies can be explosive and rip through your stops.
The TI indicator that Tone Vays uses is brilliant for finding these inflection points when these counter-trend rallies run out of steam.
The Ibex hit a 9 candle inflection and the next candle closed lower.
Potentially we'll go sideways early in the week (I don't like shorting on Mondays/Tuesdays) and after the 4 candle correction we head lower.
A sell order in this vicinity with a stop above the 9, and above the previous TDST line (orange line) as well as the 50 day moving average (how far above depends on your own risk tolerance) presents a good risk to reward ratio if you're targeting the next lows around 8,650.