Get started

Europe

Is there upside for the EUR/USD?The European Commission wants to borrow €750B to help European Nations less capitalized. This is on the back Germany and France’s proposal for a €500B fund intended to be given as grants to poorer nations such as Italy and Spain. Financial times estimate that Italy could be in line to get close to €82B The extra €250B was suggested by the European Commission in order to fund loans to member states. This tested a critical 1.099 resistance level as bulls rode the rally up on the good news. How is the European Union going to pay for the grants? European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is proposing a myriad of taxes to pay for this fund. These taxes include a tax on plastic, carbon usage and big tech, raising billions of euros a year. What is the long-term view on the EUR/UISD? As many countries, Europe is being propped up with billions of dollars of quantitative easing. Historically, quantitative easing has put pressure to the downside for the currencies the central banks directly deal with. However, if all the central banks are implementing unprecedented quantitative easing measures, what will dictate the which currency outperforms? It is highly likely that the currencies that outperform are those whose governments lead and excel in their long term actions with regards to the Coronavirus. If we take a look at the reutrns of some currencies against the USD We can see that debatably, the currencies that have had the largest returned implemented effective Coronavirus policies. The risk off rally giving the USD its initial boost have mostly disappeared as risk on sentiment starts in the markets. It is obvious that there are more factors in play, however it is interesting to note the comparison. Are you bullish on the Euro?
by BlackBull_Markets
1
Euro and USD possible collapseEntire countries get fleeced. Trump complained that the USA were the "piggy bank" but his country is running at a huge deficit, and printing money out of thin air to buy REAL stuff. The only constant is the bottom 90% always gets scammed, but how much longer? The 90% can get robbed forever, the problem is - this is verifiable and top economists agree, this is not just me being condescending - economy and finance is too complex for the 90%, there is alot of abstraction, maths, and to make matters worse the trillions the world pays to have (useless) schools are not being used to teach the population about finance, economy, or even more generally REALITY! You can find the latest IMF report here: www.imf.org Some quotes Just another way some european countries get robbed. The major way every one is aware of is west europe taxes ending up in the pockets of east europeans. Something very interesting the the (Frankfurt located) ECB only directive is to "fight inflation" which is a german goal (they got very traumatised in the 1920s and now are obsessed with it), and generally their goals are focussed towards Germany Germany Germany. Plus perhaps sourrounding germanic states Netherlands & of course Austria. The UK never fell for the euro. But France which is the second biggest economy of europe (Italy is a little behind) did. A global currency with separate countries never worked. You'd need a united country. And europe scills agree! They call for a shared language, shared borders, shared laws, and so on. A real federal country just like the USA. I disagree with the EU shills. You'd have to convince every one to speak what? English? Or maybe this can be partially ignored. This is not North America. We can't fuse everything. Plus very large countries tend to do less well and fall apart. They become communist, or some sort of dictatorship, and always fall apart. That's not to say every one must be ultra nationalist and we need 100 small countries in europe. But a unified nation of the entire europe? Lol no. 10 to 200 million seems to be the sweet spot. And if countries werge it will be over time. Here except Germany + Austria, I don't really see who could merge? Spain+France+UK and Bulgaria+Latvia+Croatia in the same country 🤣 Come on. Hey the US at the time of the founding fathers had a population of 4 million, during the golden age had a pop of 150-200 million, and now they're just buying time and collapsing and have 330 million divided people. The country splitting in 2 would mean each half has 100-200 million people. In its glory (50 BC to 150 AD) the roman empire had a population of 40-100 million. The area was huge, very diverse, and kept growing. And it fell apart. I think there's more to it than raw numbers but they play a part I think. If people understood the banking system they would be a revolution before tomorrow morning right. If they understood trade deficits DIRECT effect in their own earnings & savings, if they saw the effect of inflation etc directly in a simple manner, they'd go crazy. There was a planned 2-3% additional tax on fuel in France and yellow vests started a revolution. How much of their money goes in fuel? 20%? They're rioting for what? Losing 1% of their money? LOL! They lose several orders of magnitude more than this in abstract ways they don't understand 😂 Businesses buy and sell at the foreign exchange rate, they're not speculators assessing what is the real value of the currency. Central banks are the ones manipulating their currencies. Once again, a centralised government getting in the way of the free market, of supply and demand laws, and cheating. The only reason this all hasn't crumbled yet is the public ignorance. That's literally the only reason: Too abstract and complex for mainstreet. Even if it gets explained to them they'll come up with a real smart solution such as "it has to be made simpler" ye sure let's return to paleolithic, you first. The big tech monopoly bubble is going to pop. If the USA split, remind me to invest in Texas & short sell California. Comparing the 5 biggest US economies and comparing the 5 biggest Europe economies. European countries are sort of limited, their only solution is to improve tech and emit CO2 to get better yields, the USA have tons of land, and plenty can grow food. The USA are huge, too huge for a single country maybe? The big US states are comparable to european countries. I don't think the USA will just completely explode like the USSR but dividing in 2 or 3 isn't completely crazy. The USA are 3 times bigger than west europe (not counting scandinavia & greenland), the difference is in culture history and language. West europeans are not that different and they're not enemies. Over time it could merge, especially in a big global world, who wants to be small isolated and carry no weight? The price of gold didn't really change till 1913. If it becomes the world currency would the price be fixed? Evolve slowly? Alot will change in the next 10 years. Got my popcorn ready.
by MrRenev
3
EURUSD Technical and Fundamental OutlookFirst off, let's have a recap on the recent past of EURUSD: After 2008 global economic crisis, EURUSD started its downtrend (Phase1), which is yet to be broken looking at the weekly and monthly timeframes. After 2014 (Phase2), FED started its quantitative tightening policy that pushed EURUSD further down in the following 2 years, resulted as a sharp fall from 1.399 to 1.034 by the end of 2016. Than FED stepped in an began its quantitative easing policy that pushed the price up to a new local high of 1.255 in the first quarter of 2018 (Phase3), which could easily be anticipated as a retracement move of the previous downward wave. Since then, we experience a continued downtrend, which had a fakeout to 1.15 by the beginning of March as an early reaction to the CoronaVirus pandemic, triggered by President Trump's statements. Coming down to a detailed look of the past 2 months: After the bullish move to 1.15, prices tanked during March and made a local low at 1.064, which was a key consolidation range of Phase2 (as mentioned above). This was due to the worsening effects of CoronoVirus in Europe and Europe becoming the new epicenter, resulting in tight lockdown policies in many countries and sudden stop of the economic activity. With the announcement of Fed's QE Infinity, we have seen a retracement to 1.11 levels. After this local high, prices formed a downtrend as seen on the 4h analysis. Technical Outlook: As the past week ended, prices made a new local low after the last retracement move and we see a clear daily reversal candle on Friday. We anticipate 4 possible scenarios for the next week onward. Scenario1: This scenario considers the retracement of downward wave of 1.15 to 1.06 is yet to be continued and a second leg of retracement to the key resistance range of 1.121-1.124 is to be expected. Possible priceaction structure respecting the key supply zones are shown on the chart. After the completion of this retracement, Scenario1 anticipates the continue of downtrend in the coming months that will push the prices down to the range of 1.03-1.04. (4.000 pips up followed by 8.000 pips down) One can expect positive news flow from Euro area in the coming days to support this scenario. Anyhow, the midterm economic effects of Corona Crisis will be devastating and as the economic crisis deepen, a USD rally is expected in the near future, which will further push EURUSD down. Scenario2: As much as it seems less likely, Scenario2 anticipates the retracement was ended with the move up to 1.11 range and EURUSD will fail to break above the key resistance range of 1.087-1.09, whereas the newly formed 4h falling trendline is also crossing. Scenario3: Similarly with the Scenario2, Scenario3 anticipates a shortlived uptrend, which will reverse from the key supply range of 1.0975-1.10. Scenario4: Given the global economic conditions and the chaotic outlook in Europe, this scenario of continued uptrend to 1.15 range is highly unlikely but to be mentioned as a weak possibility nevertheless.
Long
by BullsITrading
3
EURUSD - wave three down to new lowsIn our previous post dated April 28, we advised our readers that the currency should reach 1.099 and then start a move down. The currency reached 1.10 on May 1 and started its move down. We believe the currency is now on minute wave iii down that should push its price to the most probable target at 1.04, before a short term correction and then continue its path down. A move above 1.115 will imply in a revision on this scenario. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
Short
by SkylinePro