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Eurodollar

EUR/USD -25/5/2023-• The pair lost more than 300 pips in 2 trading weeks • Short and medium term trends are bearish for the following reasons: 1- Prices broke below a long term ascending trend line and is trading below it for the second day 2- Prices are trading below 20,50 and 100 Moving Average 3- Prices broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the latest advance 4- Prices are trading inside a parallel downward channel • Long term trend is neutral to bullish as we got some mixed signals for the following reasons: 1- Prices are still trading above the 200 Moving Average, a long term bullish signal 2- 1.07 support level is holding for now and this might give the bulls a double bottom signal entry if the pair gathers momentum again All in all, prices are expected to go sideways soon as the downward channel is tight and we are approaching oversold conditions and strong support. Bulls are aiming to get a double bottom entry at 1.0710 Bears target a break below 1.0710 to get another leg down to 1.0510 Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅ Here to answer all your questions, Good luck
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Stubborn EURUSD protects 🛡️1.076 Daily Level FOMC Meeting Minutes is coinciding with a touch into our Daily Support Level that has held since last Thursday. It's almost been an entire week since the decline has been halted. Yesterday we created a publishing about a potential double bottom, but we may have jumped the gun so to speak. The market may have needed more time to accumulate long orders and trap short liquidity. The Market appears to keep banging its head stubbornly against our 1.076 Daily Level. This morning thus far we could observe a volatile 40 pip range between 1.0795 and 1.075. Day traders have been having a hell of a time. This market reminds me of the FOMC Interest rate announcement about 3 weeks ago. It was a volatile range and turned out to be the turning point in favor of the bears for Eurusd. The market used FOMC as a turning point recently and I think we may see another occurrence as the market shakes out Buyers and Sellers with this volatile price action. Similar to the CPI news shaking out weak sellers 2 week ago, this market may increase. The price is low but the Sellers don't look necessarily persistent in their effort to sell into the 1.076 Daily Level. The Buyers on the other hand are happy to go long at our Daily Support Level as it offers great risk to reward. Price is has made a new low during London but was quickly bought up at our pre-planned 1hr support zone 1.0749. I liken price to return to our 1.08125 Daily Level as we continue to see a volatile range and fight in the 1.07's for Eurusd. I've struggled in my scalping of Eurusd this week and attribute it to psychology. Trading psychology is a very large part of trading and requires constant attention. It must be managed properly and is a skill just as developing a profitable system that suits your personality. It takes time to understand your weaknesses and strengths as a trader. This week I've had a particularly difficult time managing my weaknesses. Time and Patience is the greatest warrior and so I will come back stronger at a later time. Safe trading.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Eurusd : Double Bottom [ Daily level 1.076 ] ⛽There is a good probability that Eurusd will create a double bottom structure at 1.07597 on the Daily Timeframe. Here on the 1Hr we can observe a Low formed at the bottom of structure and is bouncing hard. I am anticipating a sort of double bottom structure here on EU. EU is flat after PMI data was released. Data was expected to be generally good and it turned out to be mixed. -This news release lines up with a retest of our Daily Level 1.07597 -The recent 4Hr candle just closed at our 4Hr Support/ Daily Level 1.07597 with no bottom wick signaling to me that there is profit taking for the bear occurring. -After 1Hr of Price action the current 4Hr candle didn't hesitate and has just gone straight up. -The bottom wick for the new 4hr candle thus far has been very minimal. - The 1Hr Candle just closed bullish at our 1.078 1Hr Zone -Often times at the 7am PST candle you can observe a continuation of the previous trend . ( In this case confirmation of a bounce off our Daily level 1.076 -We have clean traffic on the 1Hr chart back up to 1.08 where we may run into some trouble in the short term More Analysis: I bought the low price around the time when the new 4hr candle was opening and earned nearly 1% on the account. I don't necessarily think going short at Support is a wise thing unless you really know what you are doing.
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
Going with --> Gut Feeling/Spider Instinct🕷️/Sixth Sense The Weekly Candle closed bearish last week. This created the second weekly bearish close in a row denoting bearish momentum. 1.0866 Weekly S/R Zone is no longer relevant. Our Relevant weekly level's now stand as -Weekly Resistance Level : 1.1024 -Weekly Support Level : 1.06647 Our Daily Level's stand as - Daily Support Level : 1.07597 - Daily Resistance Level : 1.08739 I think it's reasonable to see some selling pressure to start off the trading for this week. Or may we at least anticipate a double bottom sort of structure and retest of our 1hr Zone 1.07802
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
3
Unemployment Data was a Catalyst for more Eurusd Downside 🚅The Weekly Candle is now plunging down into a Free Fall. Unemployment Claims Data was poised to improve with 10K less people filing for Unemployment. The data was better than expected as more than 20K less people filed for unemployment in comparison to the previous period. In previous posts I talked about how this may provide a continuation for further downside and more Dollar Buys to come (More Eurusd Sells to come). This occurred and so now the question is if Momentum will continue to help Eu Fall to the next Daily Zone at 1.07598. Our Weekly Target was just hit at 1.07925 4Hr Zone but price may keep dropping hard. -The Weekly Candle last week Printed bearish below our Weekly S/R Zone 1.0866 - The first two days of this week saw Euro buyers to not be able to sustain themselves - Price was gathering liquidity setting up the move for later in the week which we are seeing now - Price did a perfect break and retest at 4Hr level 1.08462 and returned back to the lows at 1.08150 1Hr Zone just prior to news -Looking at the 4Hr Timeframe we can at least expect an 8ish Pip bottom wick on this NY 4Hr Candle -Look at the sell pressure, price keeps dropping and I'm looking towards 1.07592 Daily Level to end off the week from here
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
1
Dollar Long term -18/5/2023-• Here is a long term view on the Dollar dating back to 2001 • It is always best to look at the primary larger trend to understand where we are in the market • The chart printed a symmetrical triangle since July 2001 with its bottom in March 2008 • The Dollar managed to breakout above the triangle in April 2022 shortly after the Ukraine-Russia war started and the Euro fell below parity • The breakout however, could be a failure according to Bulkowski's rule which says that a breakout is considered a failure if the move didn't go beyond a 20% move. The breakout happened at 100 level so a 20% move would be one hitting the 120 level and what we got was 115 • According to other theories, the failure rate is 10% which we got beyond • The latest Dollar decline could be seen as a re-test of the breakout level which usually happens more than 50% of the times and the market could be eyeing another massive rally for the Dollar to reach new highs if the pattern proves to be applicable • This is a very long term view so if the breakout is confirmed, the next big rally could take months or even years • Zooming in to the 15 month view, I drew the Fibonacci levels for the 2021-2022 rally and we can see that the bulls and bears are fighting around the 50% level now and any sustained rally from here could be seen as a completion of the correction for the major rally Traders, if you like this idea please comment and like ✅ Here to answer all your questions, Good luck
TVC:DXY
by RamziAbouAbdallah-CMT
Shaking it up 💵 Can you close Below 1.08392? EurusdIt took a Few Days before Price was able to punch out a new Low after Printing an Engulfing Candle on the weekly timeframe last week. The candle engulfed almost 5 weeks of previous gains by Bulls. Price corrected to the S/R Zone 1.0866 and pulled back from our Quarterly Highs around 1.103- 1.108. The Next Weekly Level sits a 1.06650 which currently sits 170 Pips away. We do have unemployment data during the second to last NY session of the week tomorrow. We'll see how the American workforce is doing. This news release can be a catalyst for a continuation in trend to the downside. Our Last Daily Support Level that I can see being tricky will be 1.08392. If the Daily Candle can close a solid candle below there, we can expect more downside to come. Maybe it can also act as a good Break and retest level for Short Entries. But first we must observe the Daily Close. One guy has a swing entry from 1.086 and another guy has a swing from 1.082. Both Short Entries. Both are Good traders. All of the gossip and panic about institutions dumping the Dollar. You would've missed this 200-250 Pip Short trade from the Highs that coincided with hawkish FOMC data. Thinking there may be more to come. We have creased below all our Daily Level's -1.08607 Daily Level created on Monday -1.0853 Daily Level created on April 11th -1.08392 Daily Level created on April 3rd The next Daily Level sits at 1.07592. A good technical indicator for the Daily candle is it closing with a larger body then a bottom wick. We would like to see bears protect 1.08392 What is concerning is that we may have alot of shorts piling in now. Are they Late? We will see. The market is not going to feed everyone so we may see a hard pullback up to 1.08742 Daily Level once again Unemployment Claims has been climbing since February 7th of this year. It is expected to be a small improvement over the last period. If the Daily Candle can pull back up and close above 1.08607 Daily Level that was created on Monday, Definitely Buys on EU here, good RR back to Top of our Daily Range , first back to 1.089 4Hr level We would want the bears to Ideally respect the Break and retest Level 1.08462 on the 4Hr timeframe. The 4hr Is about to close and is closing below 1.08462, good for bears
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
2
Riding 🏇 Manufacturing Data 🎯 2%+ Risking --> [ .30% ]Last Week the Weekly Candle closed Bearish but with no wick Last week the Candle closed below Weekly S/R Level However, the candle closed in between our two Daily Level's Manufacturing Data Was Expected to be negative for the USD Red Folder News and in theory good for EUR Strength Price had been going up on EU since the new Weekly Candle opening yesterday. From Experience I was anticipating an early in the week push up away from our previously mentioned Level's. The Red folder news was a catalyst for a continuation of momentum. From here we can anticipate a continued early in the week push or Consolidation structure as NYSE Open falls back to our mentioned Weekly and Daily Level's. I can see price holding these level's for a few sessions because the Bulls have a great interest in protecting these levels. Or else EU will fall back to 1.076 rather easily Weekly Target for Bulls if we hold these levels is 1.0948 More Analysis: I observed that London Session had a nice bullish breakout. Price had pulled back for the new 4Hr candle leaving a wick to fill in momentum and additionally to create a bottom wick for the new 4hr candle. So it could blast off like a spaceship away from our previous mentioned levels. Zone to Zone. My TP was at next technical level 1.0889 1Hr Level
Long
by ShrewdCatfx
EURO #EUR/USD The EUR/USD pair shows new negative trades to pressure the 1.0900 barrier, reinforcing expectations for the continuation of the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our expected target is at 1.0865. We remind you that breaching the mentioned level will push the price to achieve additional negative targets that reach 1.0795, while breaching 1.0945 will stop the current bearish wave and lead the price to try to restore the main bullish direction again.
by Evar_Mayi