EURUSD expected to rebound on an oversold 1D RSI.The EURUSD pair made a straight hit on our 1.08350 Target (September 23 idea, see chart below) following the 1.12000 Double Top rejection:
Right now the price sits below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), having failed to recover it in the past 2 days. This is however the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the last Low, which is where the February 14 2024 correction reversed.
At the same time, the 1D RSI turned oversold last Thursday, which is an even bigger bullish indication. For the past 2 years (since September 27 2022), every time the RSI got oversold (below 30.00), it was a very strong buy signal as the price reversed.
On the February 14 Low it reversed to the 0.618 Fib (blue), so currently our minimum target on this buy opportunity is 1.10550.
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Euro
EUR/USD Pauses After Four-Day Slide as USD Rally EasesThe EUR/USD pair takes a breather on Friday, following a prolonged four-day losing streak, as the US Dollar's (USD) strong rally shows signs of slowing. The Euro attempts to stabilize after a tough week, with the pair hovering slightly higher, supported by a momentary pause in the USD’s upward momentum. Despite this pause, the outlook for the Greenback remains positive, particularly after Thursday’s encouraging US economic data, which continues to reinforce the idea of a resilient American economy.
USD Momentum Eases After Strong Economic Data
The US Dollar has experienced a robust run in recent weeks, driven by a strong economy and expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. However, the rally took a pause on Friday, despite the release of better-than-expected US economic data. September’s Retail Sales increased by 0.4%, surpassing market forecasts, while the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 came in lower than anticipated at 241,000, compared to an expected 260,000. These figures underscored the strength of the US labor market and consumer spending, further bolstering the Federal Reserve’s stance on maintaining elevated interest rates.
Even though the positive data continues to favor the USD, the currency’s upward trajectory has temporarily slowed, allowing the EUR/USD pair to consolidate after a sharp decline earlier in the week. This pause in the Greenback's rally offers the Euro some relief, though the broader trend remains USD-favorable in the near term.
Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Prepares for a Potential Rebound
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair is showing early signs of a potential bullish rebound. The pair has bounced from a critical demand area, suggesting that buying interest is emerging at these lower price levels. Furthermore, the Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a significant divergence between retail and institutional sentiment. While retail traders remain predominantly bearish, large institutional investors—commonly referred to as "smart money"—have begun to increase their long positions on the Euro. This discrepancy in positioning could signal a reversal in market direction, potentially favoring the Euro in the near term.
Seasonality patterns also support a possible recovery in the EUR/USD, as historical data suggests that the Euro tends to perform well during this period of the year. Taken together, the technical indicators and seasonal trends point toward a possible bullish setup, where traders might look to enter long positions, anticipating further upside movement.
Conclusion: EUR/USD Seeks Stability as USD Rally Temporarily Stalls
The EUR/USD pair has found some much-needed support after several days of losses, as the relentless USD rally slows down following strong US economic data. Despite the positive fundamentals supporting the Greenback, technical indicators hint that the Euro may be on the verge of a recovery. The rebound from key demand levels, coupled with institutional long positioning and supportive seasonality, suggests that the EUR/USD could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders should remain vigilant, as the pair’s next move will depend on evolving market conditions and the upcoming data releases that could further influence the direction of both currencies.
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EURO - Price can make retest, after exiting, and continue growHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago price entered to rising channel, where it reached $1.1080 level and broke it.
Then price some time rising in channel, until it reached resistance line, after which price started to decline.
In a short time, EUR exited from rising channel and continued to decline inside wedge, where it soo broke $1.1080 level.
Later, price fell to support line of wedge and then tried to grow, but failed and continued to decline.
After this, Euro broke $1.0905 level and fell to support line, but recently price bounced up, thereby exiting from wedge.
Now, I think that price can make a retest and then bounce up to $1.0940, thereby breaking resistance level.
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Algorithmic trading (algo trading) involves using pre-programmed instructions (algorithms) that can automatically execute trades in the Forex market based on specific conditions. These conditions can be price, volume, time, or other market indicators. Algo trading has become increasingly popular in the Forex market due to its ability to:
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A bot algo expert is typically a professional who specializes in developing and optimizing trading algorithms (bots) for Forex markets. They possess skills in coding, often using languages like Python, MQL4/5 (MetaQuotes Language), and other programming languages tailored to financial markets.
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Replace a 100 000 USD salary with income from trading🔸 Develop a Strong Foundation in Forex Trading
Before considering Forex as a full-time source of income, it’s essential to build a solid foundation in trading.
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HelenP. I Euro can break trend line and then continue to fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. In this chart, we can see how the price some days ago rebounded from the resistance zone, which coincided with resistance 1 and started to grow. In a short time, EUR rose to resistance 2, which coincided with one more resistance zone (1.1170 - 1.1140), and even rose a little higher, but soon turned around and declined below. Next, the price some time traded below resistance 2, after which it later turned around and rose back to the resistance zone (1.1170 - 1.1140). Price some time traded in this area, until it reached the trend line, after which price started to decline. In a short time, the EUR broke the resistance level (1.1140) and continued to decline near the trend line. Later price reached the resistance zone (1.0925 - 1.0900) and soon broke resistance 1, after which made a retest and then continued to move down. At the moment price trying to break the trend line, and I expect that EURUSD will break this line, reach the resistance level, and then continue to fall to the trend line. That's why I set my goal at 1.075 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURO - Price can continue to decline inside falling channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price started to grow inside rising channel, where it soon broke 2-nd ($1.1090) resistance level.
After this movement, price some time traded between resistance line of channel and with resistance area.
And last time it bounced from resistance line and broke $1.1090 level, thereby exiting from rising channel too.
Next, price continued to move down inside falling channel, where it broke 1-st ($1.0950) resistance level recently.
Now price continues to fall near resistance line of channel, and I think Euro can rise a little higher resistance line.
Then price will turn around and continue to fall to $1.0760 support line of falling channel.
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EUR/JPY: Tight range when other EUR-pairs are weak. HmmmDo you trade
A) Before the breakout for a better price OR
B) After the breakout for confirmation ?
We usually prefer B)
But it helps to think through some scenarios that could happen beforehand
Looking at EUR/JPY - see how it is trading in a tight range?
Well other EUR pairs like EUR/USD have been falling. That shows relative strength .
Or put another way - the yen is relatively weak.
The price could just break straight to the topside - or it could first try to break lower in a fakeout - before breaking to the topisde.
If the latter does happen - it will be one of those occations we could trade before the =breakout ;)
What do you think happens?
Maybe the trend turns lower - and neither scenario above is right - could easily be.
Eurozone CPI falls below 2%, and ECB cuts further by 25bp
The Eurozone CPI significantly undershot market expectations, prompting the ECB to implement additional rate cuts. In Sep, Eurozone CPI stood at 1.7%, falling short of the projected 1.8% and decelerating by 0.5% from the previous month's 2.2%. This marks the first instance in 40 months that Eurozone CPI has dipped below 2% since Jun 2021.
The ECB has implemented an additional 0.25% rate cut due to slowing economic growth and falling inflation. The ECB stated that the deflation process is proceeding smoothly and anticipates gradually easing labor cost pressures. ECB President Lagarde emphasized that future rate direction in December will be contingent on upcoming economic data.
EURUSD is still in a downtrend, falling to 1.0830. The gap between both EMAs widened, and the price broke the 1.0830 threshold, sending out a bearish signal. If EURUSD continues its downtrend within the descending channel and breaks the support at 1.0780, the price may fall further to 1.0670. Conversely, if EURUSD breaches both EMAs and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 1.0940.
EURUSD short term relief rebound is expected.EURUSD is trading inside a Channel Down on the (1h) time frame.
The price hit its bottom and is consolidating, being oversold on the RSI (1h).
This consolidation usually leads to a short term rebound to the 0.5 Fib and MA50 (1h).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 1.08550 (the 0.5 Fib and potential contact with the MA50 (1h)).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) has formed the exact same sequence it did on October 10th. That was also a bottom that led to a 0.5 Fib/ MA50 (1d) test.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
EURCAD: Near the bottom of its Channel Down. Bullish.EURCAD is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.446, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 21.257) as it is trading on the 3rd straight red 1D candle and is approaching the bottom of the 10 week Channel Down. The are more probabilities now to see a bullish reversal aimed at the top, so we turn bullish (TP = 1.51.300).
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Euro can reach resistance line of channel and then continue fallHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price some days ago entered to downward channel, where it at once rebounded from the resistance line and started to decline. In a short time price reached the 1.1030 level and some time traded inside the seller zone, after which broke this level. Next, the price fell to the support line of the channel and then tried to grow, but later failed and fell to the current resistance level, which is located inside the resistance area. Euro some time traded near this area and later continued to decline, thereby breaking the 1.0900 level. Then the price some time traded below this level and not long time ago continued to move down. Now EUR fell more and continues to decline inside the downward channel, so, I think that the price can rise to the resistance line of the channel and then rebound. After this, the price can continue to decline to support line of the channel, for this case, I set my TP at 1.0750 points, which coincides with this line. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD Extends Decline Near 1.0850 Ahead of Key Economic DataThe EUR/USD pair extended its decline during the early Asian session on Thursday, hovering around the 1.0850 mark. The continued strength of the US Dollar (USD) has added selling pressure on the euro, as investors anticipate critical developments in both Europe and the United States. Notably, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce another interest rate cut during its monetary policy meeting today, which will play a pivotal role in shaping the near-term direction of the EUR/USD.
ECB Meeting and Rate Cut Expectations
The ECB meeting is a focal point for the market, with investors widely expecting another rate cut as the central bank attempts to stimulate the sluggish Eurozone economy. The ongoing monetary easing measures aim to address inflationary concerns and support economic growth in the region. A further reduction in interest rates would likely put additional pressure on the euro, especially against a strengthening dollar. Traders will be closely watching the tone of the ECB’s announcements, looking for any clues regarding future policy direction, which could set the stage for increased volatility in EUR/USD.
US Economic Data in Focus
In addition to the ECB's decision, the market’s attention will shift to the release of key economic data from the US later today. The USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims reports are set to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD. These reports are crucial in assessing the overall health of the US economy, and stronger-than-expected figures could further bolster the USD, applying additional downward pressure on the euro.
Retail sales data will provide insight into consumer spending patterns, a key driver of US economic growth, while unemployment claims will shed light on labor market conditions. Should the data come in stronger than anticipated, it may reinforce expectations of a resilient US economy, prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. Conversely, weaker data could weigh on the dollar and offer a temporary reprieve for EUR/USD.
Technical Outlook: Demand Zones in Focus
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD is currently reacting to a previously identified demand area. While the pair has experienced selling pressure, the price could see a bullish reaction if the upcoming US data or the ECB meeting provide supportive conditions for the euro. In case of a positive outcome for the EUR after the news releases, we may consider opening a long position. However, the best entry point for a long trade remains within the lower demand zone, which offers stronger support and a more favorable risk-reward setup.
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report indicates a notable shift in market positioning. Retail traders have been increasing their short positions on the euro, while smart money (large institutional investors) has moved long on the currency. This positioning dynamic suggests the possibility of a reversal, as smart money often takes contrarian positions against retail traders. With the data releases and central bank decisions looming, today could present a long setup, especially if the market interprets the news favorably for the euro.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD continues to trade under pressure, driven by the strength of the USD and expectations surrounding the ECB’s upcoming monetary policy decision. As the day unfolds, the release of critical US economic data will further shape the pair’s direction, potentially adding volatility and creating opportunities for traders. While the euro remains under pressure, technical and positioning factors indicate that a bullish setup could emerge, particularly if the euro finds support in the lower demand zones or if the news flow turns in its favor. Traders are advised to exercise caution and patience, keeping a close eye on the upcoming data releases and market reactions before entering any positions.
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EURUSD📌 Trading Instrument: EUR/USD
🔶 Bullish Breakout with Strong Potential 🔶
📝 Market Overview:
After 16 days of consolidation, EUR/USD has finally broken out of the diagonal resistance, suggesting a bullish move ahead. I took a position just before the breakout, assessing the potential reward as extremely favorable compared to the risk. The trade has a remarkable Risk-Reward Ratio of 17.5:1, making it highly attractive even with a low initial risk.
The breakout is supported by triple bullish divergences, signaling a strong potential for upward momentum. Moreover, the market is currently trading near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level, a critical point often signaling reversals.
Additionally, we have a solid support zone just below, which has held firm for 750 days. The absence of any significant breakdown from this level strengthens the bullish case. If this support holds, it will continue to fuel the upward momentum. However, any breakdown here could signal a notable trend reversal, so I'm closely monitoring the price action.
Given these technical signals, I opted for a day trade with the potential to extend it through the week, depending on price movement and relevant news flow.
🎯 Trade Details:
Stop Loss (SL): Today’s low
Take Profit (TP): 1.09528
This trade leverages several technical signals:
Bullish divergence across multiple timeframes.
Holding near the 0.61 Fibonacci retracement level.
The strong support that has not broken for 750 days.
The lack of a breakdown further solidifies the bullish outlook, and if the breakout gains momentum, this could be a highly profitable setup.
🚨 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and trade responsibly. Markets are highly volatile, and you should only invest money you are prepared to lose.
EURUSD hit the 1day MA200! Support or bearish break out?EURUSD hit today the 1day MA200 for the first time since August 2nd and its 1day RSI turned oversold for the first time since April 16th.
That is a very bearish development but market exhaustion and the need for a relief rally may hit the price just like it did on the August 25th 1day MA200 test.
We remain bearish as per our last trading plan but any rebound near the 1day MA50 will be an opportunity to open additional sells.
The target is intact at 1.07700 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Previous chart:
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Euro can little correct and then bounce up to resistance areaHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Looking at the chart, we can see how the price rebounded from the resistance line, and fell to the support line, breaking the 1.1135 resistance level, which coincided with the seller zone. After this, the price bounced from the support line and started to grow to this level. When it reached it, EUR some time traded between the 1.1135 level and later finally broke it and reached the resistance line. But then the price turned around and fell to the 1.1135 level, after which tried to grow but failed and continued to decline inside the pennant. Euro first broke the 1.1135 level and dropped to the support line of the pennant, which coincided with the current resistance level and resistance area. Price some time traded inside this area and soon broke the 1.0950 level and fell to the support line of the pennant pattern. Also, the Euro tried to back up, but failed and at the moment it continues to decline near the resistance line of the pennant. In my opinion, the price can decline to the support line and then rebound up to the resistance area, thereby exiting from the pennant and breaking the resistance level. For this reason, my TP (1.0950) is located inside the resistance area. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EUR/USD Extends Losses on Turnaround Tuesday as USD StrengthensAs anticipated in our previous analysis, the EUR/USD pair extended its losses on Turnaround Tuesday, breaking through a weak demand area that had little support from underlying fundamentals. The euro continued to slide as the US Dollar (USD) maintained its upward momentum, driven by a combination of economic data and market sentiment.
US Dollar Strength Backed by FOMC Minutes
The ongoing strength of the USD has been bolstered by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes from the September 18 meeting. The minutes revealed that a "substantial majority" of Fed policymakers supported easing monetary policy with a 50-basis-point rate cut. However, they refrained from setting a specific timeline for future cuts, leaving room for further policy adjustments based on upcoming economic data.
The hawkish undertone of the FOMC's position has given the USD additional support in recent weeks, fueling its rally against major currencies, including the EUR.
FedWatch Tool Highlights Market Expectations
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, market participants are currently pricing in an 88% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting. This high probability reflects growing expectations of further monetary easing, which has helped sustain the greenback’s strength.
Upcoming US Economic Data to Watch
Looking ahead, the market's focus will shift to Thursday, when the US releases key economic data, including USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject volatility into USD-correlated currency pairs, particularly EUR/USD, as they will offer insights into the strength of the US economy and provide further direction for the USD.
Traders will closely watch these releases to gauge the health of the US economy and its potential impact on the Federal Reserve’s future rate decisions. Strong retail sales data and lower unemployment claims could strengthen the USD further, while weaker-than-expected figures may signal the need for more aggressive monetary easing.
Market Positioning and Technical Outlook
From a market positioning standpoint, recent data shows a shift in sentiment among speculators and commercial traders. Speculators have reduced their net long positions in the EUR, indicating decreased confidence in the euro’s near-term prospects. Conversely, commercial traders have increased their net long positions, suggesting that some institutional investors believe the EUR may be undervalued at current levels.
From a technical perspective, we are closely monitoring two key demand areas on the chart. The price is nearing these zones, and we are waiting to see how the market reacts before making any decisions about entering long positions. If the price finds support at one of these demand areas, it could signal a potential reversal or retracement. However, as always, patience is crucial in waiting for confirmation before executing any trades.
Conclusion
The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure as the USD continues to dominate, fueled by expectations of further monetary easing and strong economic data. While the pair is approaching key demand areas, traders should exercise caution and wait for clearer signals before entering long positions. With Thursday's US data releases on the horizon, the markets are set for increased volatility, and these reports will likely shape the next phase of EUR/USD's direction.
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EURUSD: Channel Down on 1H giving two trades.EURUSD is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 30.958, MACD = -0.004, ADX = 45.308) as it has been on a non-stop decline, which is even more effectively displayed on the 1H chart. You can see the flawless Channel Down making -0.90% Bearish Waves and then pulling back to the 0.5 Fibonacci only to get rejected again under the 1H MA100. This gives a potential double trade, initally with a short now to complete the -0.90% wave (TP = 1.08555) and then long to the 0.5 Fib (TP = 1.09000).
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EURUSD - 4H Bullish signsThe OANDA:EURUSD pair is currently positioned for potential bullish momentum, especially as the weakening of the US dollar becomes more evident. Technically, the EURUSD is showing signs of recovery, as the downward momentum appears to be weakening, and the price has reached a strong support zone. The recent decline in the USD due to a softer US jobs report, coupled with expectations of dovish action from the Federal Reserve, provides further support for a possible upward move in FX:EURUSD .
Additionally, with the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to take further action, possibly through a rate cut in mid-October, market sentiment around the Euro remains cautiously optimistic. If the pair breaks above the next resistance levels, the outlook for a continued rise seems strong, as the price aims for 1.1010 or higher. This aligns well with the technical analysis, where the support zone indicates a potential bounce in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD Starts Tuesday with a Slight Rebound BUT...The EUR/USD pair began the Tuesday session with a modest rebound after touching its lowest level since early August. The pair is currently trading around 1.09090, showing some signs of recovery, but market sentiment remains cautious as traders await key economic data releases and central bank policy announcements.
Market Sentiment and USD Resilience
On Monday, the US Dollar (USD) remained resilient against its major counterparts, thanks to the lack of significant macroeconomic data releases and a generally cautious market mood. This led to a slight decline in EUR/USD, as the greenback held its ground. With no high-impact economic reports due early this week, the USD's strength was mainly driven by investor risk aversion and uncertainty surrounding upcoming data.
Key Upcoming Data: Eurozone Focus
The focus for EUR/USD traders will shift to the upcoming Eurostat Industrial Production data for August and the ZEW Survey from Germany’s ZEW economic research institute. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for both Germany and the Eurozone is expected to show improvement in October, and any upside surprise could offer the Euro some support, potentially lifting EUR/USD from its recent lows.
However, investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy meeting on Thursday. With the ECB's stance still unclear, traders may hold back from making large moves until there’s more clarity on the central bank's next steps.
US Data: Thursday in Focus
While this week started quietly, Thursday is set to bring more significant economic releases, particularly from the US. Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims are all scheduled for release, which could provide further direction for the USD. Until then, the EUR might have some room to recover, but the overall outlook remains cautious, and further USD strength could pressure the pair lower.
Technical Outlook: Bearish Pressure Persists
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains within a weak demand area, which could offer a minor rebound. However, the broader trend suggests that bearish pressure could continue, pushing the pair towards lower demand levels.
The COT (Commitment of Traders) report indicates that retail traders turned short on the Euro last week, while institutional investors (often referred to as "smart money") became more bullish. This divergence suggests that the market may be searching for a more solid demand zone before any substantial retracement occurs. Our analysis points to further bearish momentum, potentially targeting the Demand Number 2 or even lower towards Demand Number 3 before the pair finds meaningful support.
Outlook and Strategy: Patience Until Thursday
At present, we are holding back on opening any positions in EUR/USD, as the situation remains uncertain, and key data releases on Thursday could significantly shift market dynamics. While the pair may see some minor gains in the short term, the outlook is still dominated by bearish sentiment. We expect more clarity following the ECB’s policy announcement and the US data releases later this week.
In conclusion, the EUR/USD's slight rebound on Tuesday provides a temporary relief, but the market remains cautious as key economic data and central bank decisions loom. Traders should remain patient and watch for stronger signals from upcoming events before making any substantial moves.
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EUR/USD – Potential Stabilization at Green Zone SupportThe Euro has been declining for several days, and as we approach the green zone identified as a support level, I believe we may see some stabilization or a rebound. This area has historically acted as a support level, and it could provide the necessary buying pressure to reverse the recent downtrend.
Strategy: I will be monitoring the price action closely around this green zone for signs of a potential bounce and may consider entering a long position if the conditions are favorable.
EUR/KRW Weekly Bullish Flag Pattern – Targeting the Pink Zone'm observing a bullish flag pattern forming on the weekly chart of EUR/KRW. This continuation pattern indicates the potential for an upward move. The price has consolidated within the flag, and I anticipate a breakout to the upside.
Target: My target is in the pink zone, which I've identified as a key resistance area. I believe this is where the price could move next based on historical price action .
Strategy: If the price reaches the pink zone, it may be a good time to reduce long positions and secure profits. I'll continue monitoring for signs of a breakout and further confirmation of this bullish trend.
Always remember to manage risk and adjust your positions accordingly.