DXY - Looking to Big PictureWhen we look back, when Trump first came, Dxy showed a 5.5% increase, Dxy goes to 103.5. And Trump Dxy is too expensive, the dollar is too expensive, it should fall, the statements started. Then Dxy's 14% decrease went to 88.5. Now Dxy is around 102.
I bought it directly as a fractal from August 15, 2016. If Dxy comes to around 104 until the election, the rapid increase with Trump's arrival corresponds to 110s. It has been an expected area for a long time and when Trump Dxy is at 110s, similarly, if the decrease starts with him saying the dollar is too expensive, it goes to 94s, fractal.
Here, my hopes begin and I say that it is still expensive at those levels, we will go down to 86s. This means a 4-year never-ending mega bull.
I applied the same fractal to the euro, and the much-anticipated 1.02s are here again. If I can get a fund, I will look for swing shorts at 1.12s. The fractal and events looked pretty good to me. It also fit the channel nicely.
FX:EURUSD
Euro
EURO - Price can leave wedge and fall to support levelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price rose higher than $1.1000 level but soon declined back, after which turned around and started to grow in channel.
Inside channel, price broke $1.1000 level and reached later $1.1105 level, which broke soon too.
After this, price reached resistance line of channel and then corrected $1.1105 level, exiting from rising channel.
Next Euro bounced up to $1.12015 points and started to decline inside wedge, where it in a short time fell.
Also, price broke $1.1105 level one more time and a not long time ago it EUR started to grow near support line.
So, I think that Euro can reach resistance level and then bounce down to $1.1000 level, exiting from wedge.
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EURNZD - NEW BREAKOUT Hello Traders !
On Thursday 25 July, The EURNZD reached the resistance level (1.83844 - 1.84623) and failed to break it !
The price broke the support level (1.79254 - 1.79915).
This key level becomes a new resistance !
So, I expect a bearish move 📉
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TARGET: 1.77500🎯
HelenP. I Euro will continue to decline, breaking support levelHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some time ago price declined to support 2, which coincided with the support zone, and some time traded near until it broke this level and fell to the trend line. Then EUR started to trades inside a wedge, where it rebounded from the trend line, which is the support line of this pattern, and rose to the resistance line, breaking support 2 one more time. Next, the price corrected the trend line, after which rose to the resistance line and then repeated this movement. Later Euro made an impulse up from the trend line and exited from the wedge pattern, broke support 1, and even rose a little higher than the resistance zone, but soon backed up. A not long time ago price rose from the resistance zone, after which at once turned around and dropped back. Now, I expect that EURUSD will make a small movement up and then continue to decline, breaking the trend line with the support level. Therefore I set my goal at 1.1015 points. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EUR/USD on the Move - Eyes on the 1.17 Target!💶📈 EUR/USD on the Move - Eyes on the 1.17 Target! 🚀💥
Hey traders, it's time to look at one of the most traded pairs in the forex world: EUR/USD. This pair has been a fascinating ride, and now we are entering a pivotal moment once again.
Since I shifted focus towards crypto and volatility, my forex trading has become more selective. Trading fewer times but with more patience has brought great results, and this approach has worked exceptionally well in recent months.
🔍 Key Insights:
We had a perfect short at 1.232, riding it all the way down to parity. Not many believed we’d see EUR/USD drop to 1.00 or lower, but we anticipated it, and it played out as expected.
The next major move was the reversal at parity, and we've been long since. With EUR/USD now reclaiming the 1.11 level, the charts are pointing towards a possible further move upwards.
While there is a 35% chance of EUR/USD retesting 1.10, the majority of the indicators suggest continued support, and I’m looking at a target of 1.17.
I had great success focusing on USD/JPY shorts, but now it’s time to re-enter EUR/USD, which has been a phenomenal trade from 0.97 to 1.12. I’m considering increasing my positions, with eyes on that 1.17 target.
Don’t forget to check my recent DXY (Dollar Index) post, as these markets are closely connected and tell a similar story.
Also, keep an eye on Bitcoin—I believe it’s going to make headline news soon!
One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Euro can drop to 1.1100 points, thereby exiting from wedgeHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Euro. Observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago entered to range and dropped from the support level, which coincided with the support area to the buyer zone. When the EUR fell to this area, it some time traded very close to the bottom part of the range and later rebounded up to the support level. Also, inside the range, the price formed three gaps, and on the third gap, the Euro exited from range, entered to wedge, and dropped to support line of this pattern. Later price turned around and started to grow, after which in a short time rose higher than the 1.0900 level, breaking it finally and then made a retest. After this price rebounded from the support line of the wedge and rose to the resistance line, but a not long time ago EUR rolled down from this line. At the moment, I think that the price can rise almost to the resistance line of the wedge and then drop, thereby exiting from the wedge. For this case, I set my TP at 1.1100 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
EURO - Price can little fall and then continue rise in channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some days ago price broke $1.0785 level and entered a flat, where it soon made a gap and reached the top part.
Next, price turned around and declined to $1.0785 level, after which bounced and started to grow in rising channel.
Also, EUR left flat, and in channel, it soon reached $1.0980 level, but at once made correction movement.
Then price bounced up from support line of channel, breaking $1.0980 level, and rose almost to resistance line.
But price made little correction and now continues to move up inside rising channel, so, I think it can little decline.
After this, Euro can turn around and continue to move up to $1.1290 inside rising channel.
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EurUsd → so bullishhello guys.
let's dive into eurusd
Breaking the Channel:
The price has broken out of a previous channel, which suggests a potential bullish momentum continuation. This breakout is marked as a significant event that has shifted the trend.
The Last High Broken:
The chart indicates that the last significant high around the $1.1169 level was broken. This breakout above the previous high is a strong bullish signal, suggesting further upward potential.
Internal Trendline:
There’s an internal trendline within the broader trend that could act as support if the price pulls back. The price might retest this trendline before moving higher.
Potential Bullish Move:
After breaking the last high, the price may retrace slightly to retest the breakout level or the internal trendline, before continuing its upward move.
The next potential target appears to be in the region of $1.1300, where the price may find the next significant resistance.
Current Price Action:
The price is currently hovering around $1.1166, slightly above the previous resistance, which now acts as support. This area will be critical in determining if the price continues its bullish trajectory or pulls back for a deeper retest.
This analysis underscores a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair, emphasizing the importance of the broken resistance level and the potential for further gains if the trend continues. Traders should watch for a retest of the breakout level to confirm the strength of the move.
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EURUSD approaches mother of all Resistances from the 2008 crisisThe EURUSD pair broke through all major medium-term Resistance levels, with the latest being the 1W MA200, but is now facing perhaps the most important Resistance of all. That is the Lower Highs trend-line, that started during the height of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis on July 2008.
As you can see on this 1M time-frame, this Resistance is technically the top of the 19-year Falling Wedge pattern, which encompasses different cycles of foreign exchange price action, such as the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) turning from a multi-year Support to multi-year Resistance etc.
The presence of the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) adds more selling pressure to the current Resistance cluster, which had the last major long-term rejection on July 2023 and before that on February 2018 (along with the 1M MA200 that time).
Ideally, the sell signal will get strengthened if the 1M RSI gets rejected on its 15-year Resistance Zone. As a result, a rejection within the multi-year Falling Wedge, will most likely see EURUSD test the Symmetrical Support Zone (blue), which only broke once during the recent 2022 Inflation Crisis.
If however the price closes a 1M candle above the Lower Highs of the Wedge, we will turn bullish long-term towards the 1M MA200, aiming at around 1.2000.
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Euro H4 | Potential bullish bounceThe Euro (EUR/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.1149 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 1.1088 which is a level that lies underneath a pullback support and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Take profit is at 1.1221 which is a level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
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Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
HelenP. I Euro can make small movement up and then start fallHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. Some days ago price reached the support zone, which coincided with support 2 inside the upward channel, and after a small correction, it broke this level. Also, the price made a gap, after which rose to the resistance line, making a second gap and later corrected to support 2. After this movement, the Euro turned around and rebounded up from the trend line to support 1, but at once fell back to the trend line, thereby exiting from the channel as well. Price some time traded near the trend line and then made impulse up from this line to 1.1200 points, thereby breaking support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. Now, I expect that EURUSD will make one more movement up and then drop to the trend line. That's why I set my goal at 1.1120 points, which coincides with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
Euro can rebound up from buyer zone to 1.1190 pointsHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Looking at the chart, we can see how the price hit the support level, broke through it, but then quickly turned around and dropped to the lower part of the range. After that, the EUR reversed and bounced back up to the 1.0960 level, broke it again, exiting the range, and then climbed to the resistance line. The price then reversed and made a correction move to the support line, after which it started to rise near this line to the current support level. When the Euro reached this level, it broke through and kept rising until it hit the resistance line, but not long ago it turned around and made a correction move to the buyer zone. Right now, the price is trading near this zone, and I think the EUR might drop to the buyer zone before rebounding up. So, that's why I set my TP at 1.1190 points. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
Could demand for the dollar pick up once more today?The dollar saw strong bids overnight as robust macroeconomic data (unemployment claims and Composite PMI) functioned as bullish catalysts.
With Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell kicking things off at the Jackson Hole Symposium later today, could we see another round of higher demand for the greenback and thus a further a decline in EUR/USD?
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
EURO - Price can fall from support line of wedge to $1.1000Hi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Some time ago price entered to rising channel, where it at once broke $1.0735 level and some time traded in support zone.
Later EUR reached support line of channel and then bounced up to resistance line of channel, breaking $1.0735 level.
Also, price made a gap, after this, Euro exited from channel and entered to wedge, where it fell to support line at once.
After this, price made upward impulse from support line of wedge, higher than $1.0945 level, breaking it.
Price some time traded between this level and a not long time ago bounced up to resistance line of wedge.
Now, I think that Euro can rise to resistance line and then bounce down to $1.1000, exiting from wedge pattern.
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EUR/USD Soars to 2024 Highs as Fed Rate Cut Speculation GrowsThe EUR/USD pair extended its rally for the fourth consecutive day, reaching new 2024 highs around 1.1170. This surge has been fueled by continued weakness in the US Dollar (USD), which has been under pressure as market sentiment shifts.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), a measure of the USD’s strength against a basket of major currencies, fell below the critical 101.00 level for the first time since December 2023. This decline was exacerbated by the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes, which hinted at the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair bypassed its first supply area without a significant rebound and is now approaching the second supply zone, a key area where a potential sell reversal is being closely monitored. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals an interesting divergence: retail traders remain bullish on the pair, while commercial traders and large funds appear to be positioning themselves for a move in the opposite direction.
The likelihood of a rate cut has been a focal point for traders. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool currently shows nearly a 60% chance of a 25 basis point reduction at the Fed's September 18 meeting, a slight decrease from around 70% the previous day. Despite the FOMC Minutes supporting the possibility of lower rates as early as next month, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman urged caution, suggesting that rate reductions should be gradual if inflation aligns with the Fed’s 2% target. Her comments indicate a desire to avoid an overly restrictive monetary policy that could stifle economic growth.
Should the Fed opt for more substantial rate cuts, the policy gap between the Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) could narrow in the medium to long term. This convergence may further support the EUR/USD pair, particularly as market participants expect the ECB to implement two additional rate cuts this year. Such a scenario could provide additional upward momentum for the EUR/USD, pushing it even higher in the coming months.
EURO - Price can bounce down from resistance line of channelHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Recently price entered to wedge, where at once broke $1.0830 level and rose until to resistance line of wedge.
Also, price formed a gap and later it started to decline from resistance line to $1.0830 support level.
When EUR reached this level, it broke it and fell to support line of wedge, after which made upward impulse.
Price exited from wedge, broke $1.0830 level, and rose to $1.1000 level, after which started to trades in rising channel.
In channel, Euro first made correction and then in a short time rose to $1.1000 level again and broke it.
Now I think that price can bounce down from resistance line to $1.0940 support line of rising channel.
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HelenP. I After movement up, Euro will start to declineHi folks today I'm prepared for you Euro analytics. A few moments ago price rebounded up from the trend line and rose to support 2, which coincided with the support zone. Soon, the price broke this level and continued to grow, but later turned around and made a correction movement to support 2. Next, the price bounced and some time traded near this level until it reached the trend line, after which it made impulse up to support 1, which coincided with one more support zone. After this movement, the EUR rebounded down to the trend line, after which at once bounced and made an impulse up again, but at their moment it broke support 1 and even rose higher than the support zone. Just now, the price continues to grow, for this case, I expect that EURUSD will make one movement up and then start to decline to the trend line, thereby breaking the support level. That's why I set my goal at 1.1025 points, which coincided with the trend line. If you like my analytics you may support me with your like/comment ❤️
EURUSD Excellent long-term reward if you sell here.The EURUSD pair has broken above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the week of July 17 2023). With this move it entered the (red) Resistance Zone of the practically Rectangle pattern that it has been trading in for more than 1.5 years.
Technically, the above conditions offer a great opportunity to sell for the long-term as during this time, the pair has been rejected here two times and once on the absolute Resistance 2 level (1.12750).
As a result we will use two short positions on EURUSD, aiming to close them on profit at the end of the year. All prior rejections hit at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our Target will be slightly above it at 1.06650. From all angles, this opportunity offers solid Risk/ Reward conditions.
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EUR/USD: Key Supply Zones to Watch for Potential ReversalsThe EUR/USD pair has extended its upward momentum, reaching new highs for 2024, currently hovering around 1.1077 as I write this. This surge is largely attributed to the persistent weakness in the US Dollar (USD), which has been on the back foot in recent sessions.
Expectations around the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) release have shifted market sentiment. While there was initial speculation of a half-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, the chances of such a significant cut have diminished. Instead, a more modest rate reduction now seems more likely, especially in light of better-than-anticipated outcomes from other critical US economic indicators.
Looking forward, the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes is anticipated to be the key event this week. However, market participants will also keep a close eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the testimony of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda before Parliament. These events could offer further insights into the future direction of monetary policies, influencing the USD and, by extension, the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD has approached a critical Supply area, where we observe a significant concentration of retail traders maintaining long positions, while commercial players have reduced their exposure. Given the current sideways market conditions, this Supply zone could be pivotal. A reversal may occur here, leading to a potential decline in the pair. However, if the price does not reverse at this level, the next key Supply area to watch would be around 1.1175. This level could become the next focal point for traders looking to identify potential turning points in the market.
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