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Mastering the Bitcoin Boom: Diverse Investment PathsIn this idea, we will explore different ways to amplify gains in a Bitcoin Bul. We will look at potential advanced tactics to capture further returns. My assumption is that Bitcoin is already in a bull market; however, the concepts I will talk about here will be valuable regardless of when the bull market begins. Bitcoin will most likely outperform most crypto assets due to the regulatory uncertainty and the potential upcoming ETF, so we don't think it's worth holding most altcoins out there. Yet there are some exciting ways to bet on Bitcoin indirectly to try to capture further upside, including altcoins. To do that, we will first look at specific key parameters that can serve as clues as to what we should be looking for in the assets we want to bet on: A) The beneficiaries of ordinals and the usage of the Bitcoin BlockChain, B) Coins/Tokens with a lot of BTC on their Balance sheet, C) Companies with BTC on their Balance sheet, D) Platforms that give access to BTC trading, E) Companies waiting for their BTC to be returned. F) Those that will benefit from an ETF. 1) Bitcoin miners. If the Bitcoin blockchain sees high usage, fees will go up, and miners will profit massively. As BTC rallies, more and more people will want to use Ordinals and Inscriptions and look for new ways to use Bitcoin. Miners also have BTC on their balance sheets, so their value will appreciate even further. WGMI is an attractive ETF that someone could buy as a bet on Bitcoin Miners, which looks pretty bullish after a massive collapse in 2022. Most alt-layer 1 protocols are dead and aren't coming back. Currently, there aren't many Bitcoin Layer 2 protocols. The only ones are Stacks and Rootstock (STX and RIF), both looking decent vs BTC. b) Tezos, Lisk, and Eos have a ton of BTC on their balance sheet. Based on my calculations, their market caps are smaller than the value of the BTC they hold. If their teams decide to return some of that BTC to holders, the prices of those projects will skyrocket. All these projects that are in development for 5+ years but haven't gained any reactions. They are looking quite bearish, yet the lower their ratios vs BTC go, the more attractive they are as a speculative buy, as they could easily double or triple in value. c) Microstrategy's Market Cap is worth the same as all the BTC on its balance sheet. It's currently at a 500m loss from the purchases and has a ton of debt; however, if BTC rallies and Microstategy finds ways to build on Bitcoin, its stock price has no ceiling. It's like a leveraged Bitcoin play with no risk of being liquidated. d) Coinbase has seen its competition rekt. Bittrex gone. Binance US is out. Gemini is suffering and can't truly compete with Coinbase. Coinbase plans to expand abroad and even launch its Ethereum Layer 2 protocol. Most FUD around regulations has already been priced in, and any positive news will disproportionately affect the price. As the exchange will be used as the custody solution for Blackrock's ETF, it will directly benefit from the ETF, despite potentially fewer people trading Bitcoin on it. ARKK holds most of the stock's supply and is unlikely to sell soon. e) LEO - This is Bitfinex's exchange token. If and when the US gov will return to Bitfinex the BTC it got from the Bitfinex hack back in 2016, that BTC will be used to buy back LEO tokens. When the FBI caught the hackers in 2022, LEOBTC jumped 85% on the assumption that the coins would be given back. I believe that, eventually, these coins will be returned and that LEOBTC will trade near or even above its ATHs. From here, that means a 100% gain or more. f) GBTC - As mentioned several times in my previous ideas, I believe an ETF will be approved, or something else will occur that will close the current GBTC discount. GBTC is a Bitcoin Trust trading at a 35-40% discount to NAV. That means that if that GBTC starts trading to its actual NAV, it will go up 70-80% from here relative to Bitcoin.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
Predicting Crypto's Journey Amid LawsuitsBefore anyone reads this idea, I'd recommend reading my previous two ideas about Coinbase and Grayscale. Definitely worth the read to get a better grasp of the current situation. The main ideas I will analyze are that the SEC suing Coinbase and Binance are the final things that had to happen before a Bitcoin ETF would be approved and that the SEC could lose some of its court battles against crypto companies. Then I will close with some solid technical and fundamental analysis of the current price action. Wall Street Interests and the SEC's Anti-Crypto Native Firms Stance The SEC seems to be trapped, as it has too many court cases open and won't be able to win all of them. It's currently struggling against Coinbase and its demands for clear regulations and, in its case against Grayscale too, which seems to be doing well in court. Against Grayscale and Coinbase, the SEC's cases are very weak. It's clear that the SEC was just stalling everything and damaging the US industry in the short to medium term so that the TradFi guys could take control. Now they've reached their limit, as the industry is coming together and attacking it en mass. The political pressure against the SEC has been mounting, which is why Blackrock has filed for its Bitcoin ETF. It's no coincidence that TradFi firms are coming out after the recent lawsuits and talking about how they want to get involved. The CFTC approved futures related products for Coinbase and the Cboe, confirming that other major players might want to be engaged at a higher level. Essentially it's not the SEC being anti-crypto; it's just the SEC being anti-crypto native firms and wanting to pave the way for Wall Street. Securities, Market Manipulation, and the Complexities of SEC Approval What's been super clear is that BTC isn't a commodity; however, for an ETF to be approved, the SEC had to deal with all shady exchanges and practices in the US. It would be impossible for them not to have dealt with Binance before approving an ETF. To me, it's clear that many of the services Coinbase and Binance are offering are securities, and it's also been clear that Binance has done many shady things in the past. The main issues for the SEC to approve an ETF would be that these exchanges would be trading securities along with Bitcoin, and market manipulation or an FTX-like collapse would create many issues. What is positive for Coinbase and Binance, though, despite my opinion about what is a security and what is not, is that the SEC approved of Coinbase's business model before it went public and that to this day, it still doesn't offer clear guidance for crypto firms. Anticipated SEC Lawsuits and the Impact on Coinbase and Binance Something significant to note is that nothing that has happened with Coinbase and Binance wasn't expected. We've had so much news about the SEC potentially suing both that it was almost priced in. Alts clearly got shocked, and they might feel even more pain if the SEC wins against Ripple, as some will probably be deemed securities. Yet beyond that, I don't think the SEC will get everything it wants. It has failed so spectacularly that the US judges won't be able to give it all it wants. It might have some wins, but overall, there is no way that it can damage the US industry too much. Of course, it can deal substantial damage; however, even if the SEC itself can't, the big players behind Blackrocks ETF might find other ways to shake out the weak hands before taking the market higher. The Dawn of a New Era: A Turning Point in Crypto Regulations It appears that we've reached a turning point in crypto regulations. It's unlikely that regulations could get any worse from here, which is a positive sign for the market. We're currently facing an environment with almost no significant regulatory risks, only potential regulatory upsides. The crypto market has demonstrated incredible resilience, adapting and evolving in ways that make it less susceptible to regulatory hindrances. The SEC is under increasing pressure to clarify its stance on crypto regulations, while other countries are stepping up and providing more precise guidelines, attracting a growing number of crypto businesses. This trend fosters the expansion of exchanges outside the US and the development of more favorable regulations for the crypto space. In my opinion, we will have regulatory clarity in the US by the end of the year. An Outlook on the Crypto Market: Positive and Negative Factors Some positives are 1. China is pumping liquidity into its economy, and as Hong Kong has just opened its doors to crypto, some of that liquidity will flow into crypto, 2. Celsius might convert alts into BTC and ETH (directing liquidity to these two), 3. Voyager distributing cash to creditors (some will go back into crypto), 4. FTX 2.0 is in the cards, which means that 2B USD could come back to the market, along with several altcoins that could be converted into BTC & ETH (FTX & Alameda don't have much BTC or ETH). Some potential negatives are 1. Mt.Gox, Bitfinex & US Gov distributing/selling their BTC, 2. Bankrupt companies selling their coins/tokens, 3. Gemini/DCG going bankrupt and forced to be liquidated, 4. More lawsuits and losing court battles, 5. Stock market collapse. Uncertain Stock Market Conditions and Crypto Performance Number 5 is something I would like to clarify here, as stocks may have topped. Nothing is certain, but we need to be aware of the situation. Yesterday we had a Triple Witching (a term used in the stock market to describe the simultaneous expiration of three different types of derivative contracts, namely stock options, stock index futures, and stock index options, all on the same trading day. This happens four times a year, on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.), and we will have a three-day weekend. This is the perfect setting for a top, especially as SPX has hit SPX hit 4450 and my BBs with STD 3 upper band, Nasdaq swept its Q1 2022 highs, and Russell 3000 the breakdown zone, while all are extremely overbought. Yields keep going higher, as Oil, Natural Gas, Wheat, Corn, etc. show strength, which could push rates and the dollar higher, and therefore risk assets could have a dip. Finally, based on some sentiment-related data, we could be close to an extreme point in stock prices. In my opinion, this is not the time to take excessive risks but the time to take profits on stocks. That doesn't mean crypto will collapse, as crypto has been underperforming for months and usually moves along with stocks. Therefore, if it were to simply catch up with tech stocks, 33k would be an easy target. The best way to express bullishness in the long term is to bet on BTC, ETH, GBTC, and COIN, and I would avoid any other coins for now. Technical Analysis GBTC had a massive collapse, its discount was near 50% (relative to BTC), and it rallied to fill a major gap. Filled the gap, had a correction, retested the breakout zone, bottomed there, and is now going up. If someone buys GBTC here, they will make 75% extra on their trade when that discount closes relative to how much they would have made by simply holding BTC. BITO was down 25%. Partially filled an FVG on a gap down and bottomed there. It has several gaps to fill higher, but only a few lower. The gaps higher are pretty important, as some of them are double/triple gaps (gaps within gaps), making them more critical. BTC and ETH on CME have some important gaps higher that could be acting like magnets, but both are at resistance now. BTC is at the horizontal and Fibonacci pivot resistance combo, while ETH is testing its critical breakdown zone. Overall, Bitcoin has some double/triple tops higher or FVGs, which is liquidity ready to be tapped. However, that holds for levels lower too. The most important levels right now are 27500, 30000, 33000, 35300, and 37500 to the upside and 22600, 21000, 18500, 14000, and 12500 to the downside. Bitcoin seems to have formed the perfect bottom after it formed two double bottoms, one at 25800 and one at 25350, both of which got broken slowly, and the final leg down hit the 25200 breakout zone. It actually fell below 25000, which was a round number, and trapped shorts, which thought the break below 25000 would be very bearish. Finally, it also seems to be within a massive falling wedge, but it's unclear which direction it will take. There is a potential trap in either direction, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. My view is that someone should respect all the levels I have mentioned and potentially take profits or place entries for short to medium-term trades on them.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitcoinMacro
15
Bitcoin Gains as Spot Bitcoin ETF Amendments Filed by Firms Bitcoin (BTC) reached a two-month high of $28.8K, up 2.8% in the last 24 hours, on the back of revisions to spot Bitcoin ETF registrations in the United States. Fidelity has filed a modification to its planned spot Bitcoin ETF, the Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, following in the footsteps of Ark Invest and Invesco. The amendment covers safeguards for customers' Bitcoin in custody accounts, as well as hazards linked with the regulatory landscape around cryptocurrencies. These recent filings indicate continuous conversations between ETF providers and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is feeding traders' optimism. Analysts believe that a spot Bitcoin ETF, if allowed, could contribute at least $1 trillion to the current market value of $1.1 trillion. Despite misleading rumors earlier in the week about the approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin's price has remained over the $28K mark. The amendments filed by Fidelity and other firms have sparked bullish sentiment among traders and market observers.
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by DEXWireNews
Black rocks Bitcoin ETF SagaFact: The US Securities and Exchange Commission Will Not Appeal the Grayscale (GBTC) ETF Ruling A Bitcoin Trust is a financial vehicle where investors pool their funds to buy and hold Bitcoin. Bitcoin Trusts operate like a traditional investment and are traded on the over-the-counter (OTC) stock exchange. Bitcoin Trusts indirectly own Bitcoin through the trust’s holdings. Conversely, a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a fund that tracks the price of Bitcoin and is traded on stock exchanges, just like a stock. ETF investors buy shares of the fund, which in turn owns Bitcoin. Bitcoin ETFs are more optimal because they directly own Bitcoin, and offer investors more liquidity and flexibility than Bitcoin Trusts. Grayscale runs the world’s largest Bitcoin Trust. However, Grayscale has been working to clear the “red tape” of switching from a Bitcoin Trust to an ETF for the past two years. Because the SEC did not act before the Friday deadline, the SEC will not appeal an August court loss over Grayscale’s ETF conversion application. In a statement to CoinDesk, a Grayscale spokeswoman said: “The Grayscale team remains operationally ready to convert GBTC to an ETF upon the SEC’s approval, and we look forward to sharing more information as soon as practicable.” Fiction: The SEC Approved Blackrock’s (BLK) Bitcoin ETF Early Monday morning, CoinTelegraph, one of crypto’s most followed news sites, tweeted news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved Blackrock’s Ishares spot Bitcoin ETF. As a result, Bitcoin spiked to two-month highs and neared the psychologically important $30,000 level before reversing. However, there was one major problem – the tweet was a hoax. A few hours after sending Bitcoin soaring, CoinTelegraph retracted its tweet and said it was investigating why false news was spread. Meanwhile, Blackrock, the world’s largest asset manager, confirmed that the headline was false and said the Bitcoin application is still under review by the SEC.
NYSE:BLKLong
by DEXWireNews
SPY S&P 500 ETF 2023 Forecast. CPI Report PredictionAfter those Put options went to the target: My timeline for SPY S&P 500 ETF after the CPI report on Feb 14 is this: 1. CPI data will come better than expected. The medium forecast in 6.2, I expect 6 - 6.1. - The market will be exuberant afterwards and SPY will reach $431 by March 1st, thinking that the FED won the fight against inflation. 2. While inflation continues to be sticky in March, the FED will continue increasing interest rates and won`t stop until something cracks in the economy. Another 25bps increase. - The market is expected to react and the SPY will reach $376. 3. They year will end in a positive note, the was in Ukraine will end and the supply chain disruption that was one of the factors of high inflation, will be restored. Inflation don to 3%. My prediction for SPY by the end of the year is $436, a 15% increase YOY. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
2
Bitcoin manipulation and scenarios of further price movement 🔥Monday started very stormy for the crypto market.🔥💥⚡️📉 And it showed that not only Elon Musk can manipulate the market. 😆 And while waiting for positive news, a random fake can create a storm in the desert. What happened today, when Mr. Bitcoin flew from 27.9k to 30k. The truth came out within 5 minutes, regarding BTC-ETF, and the price returned back, from where it started its flight "to heaven". 🗣What is my opinion: We have a lot of uncollected liquidity left at the bottom, which is needed, at a minimum, to break through 30K, as a maximum to go above 30+K. Liquidity is collected at the levels: 27.1K, 26.6K, 26K. That is where the price should come. Given that today the price has returned to the ascending D1 Channel, several scenarios are possible: 🔲1. The price will now move within the price channel, forming a Head and Shoulders, after which it will take away liquidity. 🔲2. The price will break through the ascending channel immediately and, having tested it, will take away liquidity. In any of the cases ‼️ ALWAYS ‼️ calculate your risks and operate your money management correctly. 🧰 The market is always unpredictable. 🔥 And very often, in addition to the news factor, other fundamental and statistical factors coincide, which greatly affect volatility. CRYPTOCAP:BTC #BinanceSquare #Binance #Bitcoin #BTC #etf
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by TrEKone
BITCOIN SPOT ETF RUMOURS!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has spiked up by an enormous 2,090 PIPS (7.50%) in the last hourly candle, on the rumour that a Bitcoin Spot ETF application has been approved by the SEC. BlackRock has come out to deny it, calling it 'fake news'. Just like that market crashed back down & wiped out its 7.50% gain. In the process trapping a lot of new buyers, taking out sellers & liquidating them both in the process. Ask yourself, who gains at times like this? The average, everyday person? No. It's the governments & institutions who release these rumours, in order to screw the everyday investor who doesn't know how to professionally operate in the markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by BA_Investments
Bitcoin Trades this MorningTraders, As you know, my original target is 31,600. Obviously, from the chart, you can see that 30k is significant resistance as well. Because of the quick pump this morning due to spot ETF approval news, I sold half my BTC at that 30k level. After dropping back down I decided to re-enter at 28k thinking that we'll now use that 200-day SMA for support. Overall target still remains 31,600, however, I may make another play at 30k pending price action, volatility, etc? SLs are 24,500 but honestly, I am considering taking them out completely and simply DCA'ing in another 10% of the total port for every level down we hit (if we get that lucky). We are getting close to moon time now for BTC and I don't want to be shaken out on the way down the way shorts were liquidated just this morning. I'll let you all know if/when I remove my stops. Best, Stew
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by stewdamus
🔥 Bitcoin Spot ETF Approved: BUY THE RUMOR & SELL THE NEWS 🚨The BTC spot ETF has finally been approved, but will it result in the massive bullish pump that EVERYONE has been expecting. My answer: No. It's public knowledge that the Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved at some point now for months. Thus, most traders have already bought a position in anticipation. Like nearly every ETH/BTC ETF news we got this year, I'm anticipating this to be a Sell The News event. If there's something that I've learned over the years, it would be that if everyone expects a certain outcome, the opposite will often happen. Yes, this is long-term great news for Bitcoin. However, I highly doubt we're going to see the massive shift in trend that people have been hoping for. Nevertheless, I'm happy to be wrong, as a new high this year would definitely be against my expectation. The market has to prove it wants to go up first before I believe it. Be warned.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
26
People want to earn but not learnThe issue is everyone wants to make money (well, maybe not everyone) but nobody wants to take the time to learn how to do it properly. This is NOT a sales pitch by the way! it's FACT!! People often ask why I bash influencers so much, it's mainly for this reason. Majority of noobs, come into trading expecting to make a fortune. If only it was that easy, every man and his dog would be a professional trader. Over the years, I have talked about things like Bots and AI that are programmed to make you money - think logically, if again it is this easy wouldn't the founders go to the bank, loan $10million based on their results and just not bother selling and shilling to customers and retail. NOBODY wants to provide customer service, especially to the world's population. Unfortunately, regardless of the market. Trust me if you stick around long enough you get to see this behaviour in Forex, Commodities, Stocks and more recently crypto with a splash of A.I. The story goes pretty much the same way. "man (or woman) hears about an opportunity to make money through a thing called trading, they do their research which leads to the old You of Tube and that leads to "Lamborghini promises from kids with fake watches, drawing random trendlines on 3 minute charts" There's often a "sign-up" bonus if you click their shill link. So let's get this straight, they make money on watch time and those links you click. The reason I chose fish in the image above, is that most people have memories that last about 2 seconds. Mark Cuban said "everyone is a genius in a bull market" Algorithms work and influencers claim to be experts with 3 months of experience. Easy to show in a market only going one way. Trading is hard enough, let alone having the ability to lose money from scams. If a trading algorithms promises a 90% win rate - run and don't buy it. ============================================================== There are fundamental things to do and you can deploy to get you off on the right track. Firstly think of the obvious. 90% of new traders lose 90% of their money in only 90 days. Hence a 50% sign-up bonus whereby you think you gained "free cash" often has small print that you can't access it until you lost your original investment. Affiliates tend to get 25% or more of the deposit - the exchanges know full well, your about to lose your money. Second thing I try to emphasis for newer traders, is that you need to treat trading as a profession. You wouldn't watch a video and expect to be a doctor, you also wouldn't buy an algorithm or Artificial Intelligence software and expect to become New York's latest Hot Shot Lawyer You see where this is going? There is no secret sauce, no silver bullet and no short cuts. If you want to trade and make money trading, you need the basics. You need to keep doing the basics well and evolve your mindset more than a strategy. Areas that will really help you include proper risk management. If your willing to be sat in negative 20, 30 or even 50% equity positions. This won't take you long to lose your entire trading pot. Instead risking 1-2% with a risk strategy of 2 -1 or greater. it's a slower game, but it keeps you playing the game. If you take a 3 or even a 4 reward trade with only 1 risk. For every time you are right, it's giving you 4 times as much as when you are wrong. Imagine winning 20% of your trading days and still being at breakeven... simple 1:4 ratio. This is only one small aspect to keep in mind. As I mentioned above, if strategies or software is pitched with high percentage win rates - run. You need to understand the market acts differently and past results do not indicate future performance. Everyone is a genius in a bull market, remember. You do not need to go looking for the silver bullet. These strategies do not exist, instead spend the time working on strategies that can be consistent in various market conditions. This is no small task, your strategy might identify entries in a counter trend differently than it would in say a ranging market. The answer to resolve this, is BACKTESTING Don't just run your strategy on replay mode, although @TradingView has a great little tool for this. Spend the time to look at things such as "repainting" this means that when your strategy triggers an entry, does it disappear and reappear. If so, do some manual back testing. Then Dig deeper and analyse the type of market condition it was more profitable or less profitable. This could be things like "I lose more on a Monday, compared to other days" or when the market goes sideways, It triggers too many trades. I've written several articles here on pure education. Here's a few examples. In this post (worth clicking on) it has a whole bunch of lessons inside. Think of trading like you would a university course, there's plenty to learn but you can have some fun along the way! Stay safe! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
37
KRE ETF – are banking risks resurfacing? While the Fed’s Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) has been a key factor in supporting bank equity, the rapid rise in US Treasury bond yields is a concern, and so is the exposure to Commercial Real Estate (CRE). We can see CRE benchmarks rolling over of late and heading lower and this is keeping investors from buying into regionals. One for the radar, but if we see the price continue in the current trajectory then it could see signs of greater risk aversion kicking into markets. Staying in the ETF scene, I am also watching the HYG ETF (iShares High Yield Corp ETF) given we see that falling sharply but seeing some extremely oversold reads.
AMEX:KREShort
by Pepperstone
Bitcoin update 25.09.23Hi , the market has been very boring for the last few months, I think it's hard to disagree with that. During this time of course there has been manipulative pumping of small liquid altcoins. But still boring or am I getting old :) I see a further rapid decline in bitcoin price, in the next 2-3 weeks, liquidation of all those jaded crypto traders, and after that I expect a bull rally, that's what I said in previous posts. Let's put it this way, I have long ago made an analysis and came to the opinion that we will go below 16k is 20% probability based on analysis and reserch of all reversal patterns, on the history of other assets. 20% is the black swan (pandemic, nuclear strikes, etc.). Globally, we have been in a bull market since November 2022, every previous cycle had a sub-cycle with crowd disappointment, and we are approaching that state. Once there is that final down movement I will only look up and be bullish until September 2025. Regarding interest levels for me - I have shown all the interest levels on the chart with blue and yellow boxing I would also like to point out that the current distribution is very similar to the 2021 - 2022 distribution I don't want to mislead you, but as you can see bitcoin holders don't believe in the bitcoin crash and collapse scenario (it's stupid because it's a cow that gives milk and it would be very stupid to kill this cow) and are set for the long term, I'm one of them - in the cypto world bitcoin is gold. About ETFs - a lot of talk is it good or bad? it is 100% good in the long run for bitcoin price. ETFs are an opportunity for huge capital to enter cryptocurrency. While regulators are rejecting ETFs those very same financial companies are buying up real bitcoin. Everyone understands the prospects of this asset and the interest in it. Best regards EXCAVO
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
24
🔥 Bitcoin Bullish Break Out: Sell-The News?In previous analyses I've been quite bearish on BTC's outlook. I mentioned that a daily close above the dotted purple resistance line would greatly favor the bulls and that I would switch my short-term stance to the bulls once we closed the day above it. And here we area. The bulls have pushed through on Ethereum's ETF's. However, I'm worried that this ETF launch is going to end up being a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event, like we've seen in the past. The yellow bullish channel is currently offering resistance. We'll know very soon if it will hold or not. A patient bull will likely try to step in from the bottom support of the channel. Patience is key.
Long
by FieryTrading
5
SPY S&P 500 etf Options expiring next weekIf you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FED`s Interest Rate Decision last week: Which happen to end up 4.18X higher after the Federal Reserve suggested the likelihood of another rate increase in the near future. Then you need to know that SPY is approaching an oversold area. And historically, as you can see in the RSI chart, in these areas technical players tend to buy the dip, anticipating a technical rebound. In this context, and looking into the options chain, I would consider the following Calls expiring next Friday: 2023-9-29 expiration date $430 Strike Price $4.38 Premium Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
3
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
Bitcoin made complexAs someone who has been around Bitcoin a long time, I find it interesting to see people try and find their own "edge" from how they utilise on-chain metrics, to liquidity maps and sometimes even deeper with things like the energy consumption or BTC mined. The last couple, most recent years - Bitcoin has been moving towards it's institutional position and that has been something incredible to watch first hand as it slowly unfurled. The logic can be simplified and following the larger players and their intentions can be very lucrative. The major issue with statistics and metrics is that these can also be spoofed, manipulated and written in ways favourable to the cause. **Caveat - not always, but can be ** What gets me is when a local 'influencer' comes up with why Bitcoin will ping some arbitrary figure just because it sounds rounded. I haven't once heard someone say, it's likely to hit $237,500 followed by some logical argument. Here's some simple logic. Bitcoin's market cap. At $69,000 we saw a cap of 1.3T roughly. To obtain this number you can do the math by knowing how many coins in circulation and times that by the price. This of course will be ever changing, new addresses and price fluctuations coupled with more coins until 21m is hit. So you can be rough on your calculations without stressing. Here is a snapshot of the coins in circulation Take this now with the current price lingering around $27,000 you have a market cap. Why does this matter? Well, it doesn't really, other than to guestimate what kind of additional money in-flows would be required to make Bitcoin as valuable as the influencers claim. Let's use the current number 19,491,306 Times that by the price claimed and you can guestimate a Market Cap. 19 million, 491 thousand, 3 hundred and 6 times $250,000 (often used figure) The question then becomes - where does the additional money come from? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- In this image, you can see the steady growth of the tokens/coins in circulation Or here the transactions per day. How about the energy consumption? You see, none of this actually matters when analysing the charts. Instead, understanding the picture painted by the larger players in the game, can give you hints as to where and why next. You take the snapshot of the COT (Commitment of Traders) report. This has allowed me to assess every major move in the Bitcoin chart, the logic for each swing is smacking you square in the face. These moves are not as random as you think. The market is simply an algorithm seeking liquidity. Nothing more complex than that. Instead these clowns come up with figures like $250,000 and quotes like 98k next month and 135k the month after, without any logic or rational as to how or where the money is coming from. Instead of moving up to $135,000 the price drops to $15,500 that's an awful lot to be wrong. Why? ZERO logic or clue as to what actually moves the market. Imagine selling at the top?! If the smiley laughing emoji hadn't have been used, it could have been one awesome call! Instead of looking in the wrong places, learn to understand where and why. Here's another interesting topic on this point. Anyways, enjoy the rest of your week! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Mayfair_Ventures
6