ES has to get above 3880 and stay thereWell we got a big a$$ green candle after the CPI.
The crash possibility is off the table, now lets see what the price to show us direction.
First yesterday's highs were taken, bullish sign.
The price must get above 3880ES and stay there, then it has a great chance of pushing up.
SPX main resistance is at 3905-07, closing above will get us to 3960 and ultimately 4010-20SPX.
Failing to close above 3880ES will fade the price down, can be a huge trap if that happens
Esfutures
ES nothing has changed in my view, setting up for a strong move ES nothing has changed in my view, setting up for a strong move down.
Should revisit the Oct 13th lows at min on the next move down.
It was a lunar eclipse today, was meditating during the middle of it, woke up 3am my time.
Slept in am to wake up to this rally, now its fading.
Markets usually either bottom or top during/around the eclipse days.
I expect this to be over either today or by the 10th.
Ideally we move down into the 10-11th and then one more up into the 15th
ES we got ABC up from Sunday open, SPX didntI posted ES chart on the weekend with the ABC move up, we got that, but didnt in SPX
ES Daily MACD is around 0 and RSI is around 50, no mans land, unless its a retest before more selling.
Im sticking to this chart for now and will add to my short going into tomorrow high (if we wont see one today)
Its a lunar eclipse tonight and elections tomorrow.
This will start moving hard very soon!
Do not force yourself into a trap, wait for a setup and then take it.
Im swing short and have a small protection for a move higher.
ES should retrace to 3750-55 and then another push upThis is how I see it going into tomorrow's high.
I see a truncated 5 down from the recent highs and now we are in 3 wave up move to finish the wave 2.
I do belive we have finished the A wave on Fri push into the close, now needs a retracement down to 3750 and another push into 3815-35 zone.
Wave 3 should bring us down to new lows into 34 handle territory.
Ideally we hit my 3212SPX target and mark the low for the year.
I do expect a maj low to get hi next year, 28 handle and ideally 2455 SPX zone.
ES is close to breakdown, careful hereLower high and lower low so far, gotta be careful here.
I shorted first spike from 3866 and covered at 49, was few seconds trade. Not touching since after
I have only few puts left, rest sold on the first spike.
If it breaks, we short the kiss of the broken trendline from the bottom.
No need to over trade here, wait for the setup to come to you!
ES touched the bottom of the channelI didnt trade much this am except covered my ES put around 39ES as well as QQQ puts in am.
Going to do some research now and get ready for the FED craziness.
I personally think they will push it up, question if we break the trendline to trap bears or just spike up from the decision time
ES bullishLast week ES price action indicated acceptance of these higher prices and appears to be ready to move higher. Friday's move was quite a shock. Long side trades existed at 3860 but they didn't 100% fit my strict strategy as I cautiously build my small account.
I expect buying to continue into next week and I'm interested in buying any weakness.
Green area is very exciting for quick moves if we are so lucky to get one. The yellow area is also in consideration depending on how price action materializes through the week.
Hard stop on all bullish intentions below 3600.
ES first support is at 3732-35 then 3709ES main support for today is at 3700-10
As longs as we hold today's lows, we should see lower levels into tomorrow imo
If it breaks out, check SPX chart I posted on the weekend.
Main resistance is at 3798SPX!
The price came close to it and retraced.
ABC structure from Oct lows is complete, 3 waves up are bearish, must hold 3820SPX on any close for lower to be seen.
I think we will re visit Oct 2nd low at min
ES first target got hit!Posted this first target during the trading hours, we hit first target - 3650-60ES
Now if looking at EWT theory, we got 5 down, now need 3 up into 3705-25ES target and then we start a strong move down,
My first main target for the whole move down for this year is at low 3400, 3389SPX is where unfilled gap is.
Then second and it was ideal target for the low of the year is at 3212SPX, will be very close if we see 3400 soon.
- I do believe we hit 3212SPX at min this year
Since my few weeks ago update, I have lowered my ideal target to 28 handle, 2855SPX to be specific!
Now, if it really wants to extend, then my extended target is in 24 handle, 2410SPX if specific.
But this update is not a long term update, so watching the numbers for tomorrow.
There are some targets Im watching - 3685-3700SPX or my ES target for the wave 2 bounce at 3705-25ES.
If we get above today's highs, then 3800SPX will be still in play, lower odds imo.
Here is VIX chart, looking for 29 to hold. Interesting how its going down together with the market.
The world is upside down now, nothing makes sense:)
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ES overnight setup for a brakoutWatch this breakout and the re-test of the breakout trendline!
Can be a very tricky stop run here, just above the trendline, so have stops regardless if you short or long.
I will be enetering with longs if the breakout zone holds for a move up to 3820ES or so (SPX target was 3800 for the C wave up)
ES watch the trendline, ideal target is 3820Im trading VWAP today only and very cautious about that orange trendline!
So far so good with the timing, should top by tomorrow (VIX OPEX) and then we see a reversal for the low on the 24th
APPL bull flagging, can push this baby up into the ideal target at some point
Dont get trapped, get a trade come to you, give to that trade time
ES needs one more push, adding to my short position todayIm finally back home and rested.
Hope everyone read my Sunday am update about holding the futs 3580ES open for a move higher, which we did. Question is will it take out Fri highs or it will make a lower high here.
Watch this triangle to break, it will be a waterfall when it does.
ES target is 3711 and ideal stretch to 3730 (must be rejected)
I see some very out of the money put prints on SPY, like really deep down all the way to 170 level!
Mostly 337, 339 and 285 and 345, lots in the middle as well.
I expect this to start moving if not tomorrow, then on Wednesday.
With the moon calendar it will get into a potential (key word here) crash starting the 20-21st.
Watch the move down, ideally lasting into 24th low, then bounce and lower into early Nov.
3615ES resistanceI got a veird feeling we start crashing on Monday if the wont recover it here right now.
Last 10min rally wont count as it would have no institutional weight on it!
Make your bets!
Im long SPY 337P Oct 17, Oct 24th and SPY 335P and 330P Nov 11th
First 2 positions are the lotto trades for me!
ES 3615-20 resistanceIts getting close to breakout or falling apart.
Below 3550SPX open will mark the start of the Big Sell if not a crash!
3615-20ES is the main resistance for tonight.
If we do get a fakeout to 3700-3730, it will be a gift to add to she short!
At this point there is a much higher chances of gaping down hard with no rally and no chance to enter
See check my previous posts from other days for targets:
ES bounced off the bear trendline we broke out on the 27th JulPerfect bounce off the support trendline
Wont rule out it holds, but ideally we dip down a bit lower, next support is at 3668ES
- I reduced my short position last night expecting 3765-70 hit, we got that!
- Was able to reshort but smaller size at that level, happy with the result.
- Next is to hold today and go up into next week! (it might still make a red close, but Im looking up for the next week)
Mind your sizing on the long side!
Have a great Friday!
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