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This is NOT Bullish for the Stock Market!This week The Fed lowered rates and everyone was "SURE" that this would lead to a huge market yeet in stocks and Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD ... but are we getting it? Price closed the week with an attempt to break higher on the S&P 500 futures CME_MINI:ES1! BUT closed BACK INSIDE the prior All Time High. THIS is a key sign of a potential reversal. In this video I look at similar instances to demonstrate how this simple element of price action is often all one needs to correctly identify reversals whether it is Bitcoin, individual stocks, or the market as a whole!
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by norok
8
ES/SPX levels and targets sept 20thWednesday around stock market close, ES gave us a huge long setup after A failed breakdown at 5680. Targets were 5779 and 5797, and we nailed 5797 to the tee for new all time highs. Now it’s all about consolidation. OPEX Friday today, so *don’t overtrade*. These days are notoriously known for blowing accounts and “pinning” of prices As of now: 5765 and 5754 are supports. Buyers have to hold to keep 5774, 5782, and 5797-99 back in play. If 5754 breaks, 5737 we go
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
Full ES/SPX trading plan for Sept 20thPlan For Friday: • Supports: 5775, 5769, 5765 (major), 5758, 5754 (major), 5746, 5737-40 (major), 5730, 5721 (major), 5715, 5711 (major), 5702 (major), 5690, 5685 (major), 5680, 5675 (major), 5666, 5659, 5646 (major). • Levels i would bid Direct: • I’m still trailing my 10% long runner from 5685, which is now up over 100 points from 24 hours ago, following a 322-point rally from last week’s lows. Bulls remain in full control, with no signs of losing key support levels yet. • However, this is my least favorite market configuration to trade. After such a significant rally, setups become scarce, and both longs and shorts carry elevated risks (rug pull for longs, and trying to short strong uptrends is equally risky). • Tomorrow, 5765 is the first key level. It was tested multiple times today and is no longer fresh, but it could still offer a bid opportunity if the reaction is favorable. If the price is knifing down, wait for 5754 and a potential recovery. • Any significant drop will likely see multiple supports lost, so be cautious with longs under key levels like 5763. Watch for a pullback to 5738-40, and if we pop above 42-43, this might offer a setup for longs. • In a quick selloff, 5711 or 5702 could present knife catch opportunities, especially if volume supports the recovery at those levels. Without strong buying volume, expect fakeouts at these major supports. • Resistances: 5782 (major), 5796, 5803-05 (major), 5813, 5824 (major), 5836, 5842 (major), 5850 (major), 5856, 5862-65 (major), 5872, 5880, 5887, 5897, 5906, 5915-20 (major), 5931, 5937 (major). • I don’t short strength in ES, especially in such strong uptrends. If you’re looking to fade strength, 5803-05 or 5850 could offer potential reactions, but it’s a high-risk strategy. • Bull Case for Tomorrow: • In the short term, bulls need to defend 5765. A consolidation or flag pattern between 5765 and 5796 could unfold, allowing ES to target 5805, 5825, and eventually 5862-65. • After such a large rally, it’s crucial that ES holds 5711 or 5702 on any pullbacks. Below 5702, we could see a move back to 5675. • Volume will be key—continued upside needs increasing buying volume to support further moves, especially through major resistances like 5805 and 5850. • Bear Case for Tomorrow: • The bear case starts if 5765 fails. This could trigger a short-term dip, but breakdown trades are inherently risky with low win rates. • I’d need to see ES first test 5763 and or put in a failed breakdown to the 5754 level first. After this plays out, one could place a short trigger below wherever the structure is. It should be slightly underneath any noise. It may be somethign like 5750 but could be higher. • As always, approach breakdown trades cautiously, especially without volume confirming the move. These setups are tricky and can easily trap traders. • Summary for Tomorrow: • Bulls are still in control, but this staggering rally could end anytime. Until 5765 is lost, I’m deferring to the trend, expecting a range between 5765 and 5796, with upside targets of 5805, 5825, and 5863-65. • If 5765 fails, we could see a backtest of previous breakout points from yesterday. Volume will be crucial—watch for volume increases at major levels to confirm further moves, or risk a rug pull if buying volume doesn’t support the trend.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
3
S&P500 Powell gave what the market wanted. Rally up to mid-2025?Chair Powell went out and did it yesterday as the Fed didn't just cut the Interest Rates yesterday for the first time since March 2020, but did so by -0.50%, giving the market what it so desperately wanted. The question now on everyone's mind is this: is this what the market needed to extend the 2023 - 2024 rally? Fundamentally of course the cuts is a strong reason and as for the technical part we will let an old analysis of ours (last updated May 16, see chart below): As you can see, we published that at a time when there were again voices over an extended correction due to April's strong red candle. What happened instead? The S&P500 (SPX) posted 4 straight green months (not including September). Once again we present to you this chart, to help everyone maintain a healthy long-term perspective. Wide, long-term time-frames like 1W or 1M (such as the current one) succeed at filtering out the short-term noise caused by volatility, news etc. As you can see on this chart, which we named "The Ultimate stock market cheat sheet", the index goes through very distinct market through roughly the past 20 years. More specifically, since the 2007/08 Housing Crisis, there is a very consistent pattern and the Sine Waves display perfectly that frequency. The first observation is that there is a rough frequency when the S&P500 tops every 3.5 years. In this time-span of 42 months (3.5 years) the index either hits a High or already has and is on a minor decline before a stronger correction comes, which is always within the technical standards of pull-backs within a greater Bull Cycle expansion. Roughly also, the sell signal is given after the 1M RSI breaks below its MA (yellow trend-line) having previously been on overbought territory (above 70.00). Once the index hits the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) again, usually a year at most after the Sine Wave top, the most optimal long-term buy signal emerges again. Investors who have applied this strategy/ principle since 2009, have had a total of 5 excellent buy opportunities for tremendous gains at the lowest possible risk. In conclusion, the market still has almost another year (roughly), until a sell signal emerges (July 2025). In our opinion, having always a low risk profile in our investments, it is advisable to be off stocks before that date just to be on the safe side. The important outcome of this finding, however, is that investors can continue feel safe buying for several more months, especially after the Fed gave a strong excuse to do so. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
S&P500 Extremely well supported. This uptrend will continue.Just 6 days ago (September 10, see chart below) we gave the most optimal medium-term buy signal on S&P500 index (SPX) as the price tested and held the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level: The price rebounded strongly and is imitating the 0.5 Fib bounces of the previous 12 months that all started very strong rallies (+10.50% the weakest!). This week we would like to go back to our long-term perspective on the wider time-frames (1W on this chart) as ahead of the Fed Rate Decision on Wednesday, we expect very high volatility that might cloud investor thinking and confidence to a strong degree. There is no reason to diverge from our long-term bullish outlook (yet) as the index remains extremely well supported on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which was approached on August's low and was last time tested (and held) a year ago (October 23 2023). A Higher Highs trend-line guides S&P to higher prices, similar to every such trend-line since 2016. The 1W RSI has started to form a Bearish Divergence, which was effective only in early 2022 and the start of the Inflation Crisis. As long as the 1W MA50 holds, the Sine Waves show that this uptrend is far from over. Technically we should now see a continuation to around 5800 - 6000 and then a new medium-term correction. Our long-term Target is 6500, which based on the progressive nature of cyclical rises within this pattern (+63.50% then 105.00%), seems a modest one. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
Full ES Trading Plan For Sep 17th** The Levels in this section all now reference the December (ESZ2024) contract prices.** Plan for Tuesday: • Supports are: 5690, 5684, 5680 (major), 5671, 5662-64 (major), 5654 (major), 5650, 5645, 5639 (major), 5632, 5627 (major), 5620, 5614 (major), 5607, 5598, 5588, 5579 (major), 5573 (major), 5568, 5562, 5548-52 (major), 5544, 5532, 5523-26 (major). • In terms of lvls I’d bid direct: Conditions remain extremely poor and this partially attributed to contract rollover and partially attributed to the market waiting on FOMC Wednesday. Setups are scarce, and overtraders will continue to be punished badly. In these conditions it is essential to plan your trades and trade your plan, then sit on profits after. Generally speaking everything between 5680 and 5702 or so is pure chop now. If you over-trade in this zone, you will lose money and the only attractive trades in this situation are typically failed breakdowns, and we saw plenty today below 5680. For tomorrow 5680 remains support. This level is very well tested now and no longer reliable at all now. I won’t be bidding it directly, but if we dip down to 5671 then recover it may be actionable for a final time. As I warned yesterday, we have essentially rallied everyday now since last Wednesday. In this situation , rug pulls can come out of the blue, and it can occur anytime now. It does not mean that we stop taking longs, but it means we should be cautious now until the market “gets it out of its system”. My longs today were only partially sized and any future longs will remain so until a rug pull happens (which is inevitable) and plays out for a deep sell. We do not predict when this will occur, but we are prepared to react. Below 5680 is 5662-64. Once 5680 fails we could easily end up in “knife catch mode” so I am not overly interested in buying supports. If we test 5664 though and reclaim today’s low, it may present an attractive level to level move. If we get a proper dip tomorrow, both 5627 and 5614 would be spots I’d consider small knife catches at. As always, no rush, you can wait to see how price reacts at the zone especially if we are knifing into it at full speed. • Resistances are: 5696 (major), 5703 (major), 5709, 5720 (Major), 5724, 5734 (major), 5739, 5748, 5754-56 (major), 5765, 5770, 5774, 5781-85 (major), 5794, 5802 (major), 5815, 5829-32 (major), 5840, 5847, 5859 (major), 5865, 5877, 5881 (major). As readers know I don’t short strength in ES so I won’t be shorting any of the above levels (win rate for shorting when bulls control is just too dismal for me even attempt). For those who have a higher risk tolerance than me though, 5734 would be one spot to consider trying shorts. • Buyers case tomorrow: As I said on Friday buyers remain fully in control and we could easily pullback to 5552 over 100 points lower and it would just be a healthy, normal pullback after this size of rally. When I talk buyers case tomorrow, it is therefore just in the very short-term. For tomorrow, the buyers case would just involve ES filling out the 5702 to 5680 range more. We could ping pong and failed break this down many more times. As long as this structure is in tact though, it is a bull flag and would simply resolve us higher. This would ultimately target 5720, then 5732. If that big resistance can clear, we ultimately head up to 5756, then to re-test the ATH. I normally give spots to add on strength but given this very tight range, I cannot responsibly do this without seeing the action in real time as the zone is too choppy. Perhaps tests of 5680 that recover 5690 may be a concept of interest. • Sellers case tomorrow: The sellers case here is only short-term obviously, and begins on the failure of 5690. As I say everyday, there is a strong disclaimer that goes with these types of trades. These types of level loss shorts below a support are called breakdown trades. My core edge is failed breakdowns, and the reason is this is an edge is the vast majority of break downs (80%) trap. They take great skill to execute, and even when done well by a trader who has mastered these setups, one should expect over 60% to fail (they are low win rate, high R/R trades. 2 or 3 in a row will fail, then the 4th will pay out huge). *If you don’t like these odds and cant tolerate being trapped - simply don’t take them. I consider breakdown trades to be an advanced setup type so if a newer subscriber, there is nothing wrong with passing on these*. As always I don’t chase. I will warn that this is a very complex short as this is a trappy zone. Unless you are very experienced with this type of entry, do not try this entry and wait for a more established downtrend to form. Since the 5680 level is already fairly well tested, we could just flush it directly. Ideally, I’d want to see some sort of bounce and/or failed breakdown though in that 5671 to 5680 cluster again before trying short. After this reaction, perhaps 5669 would be an entry, but it would have to go below wherever the real time structure is formed after any bounce attempt. Be sure to take profits level to level, as we could very easily just pop down a level then squeeze 60 or 70 points.

In summary for tomorrow: We are chopping ahead of FOMC. My general lean is always to defer to the trend. 5680 to 5703 is a pure chop zone and as long as 5680 holds (or recovers on any traps below) we can work higher to 5720, then 5734. If 5680 fails, ES needs to sell before FOMC (and for buyers, this is the healthiest thing possible).
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by ESMorg
Combined US Indexes - Bullish Flip?Previously though that there would be some volatility and a bearish trend forming with a previous low revisited, BUT NO... volatility popped and then so did the indexes. They bounced to meet the trendline resistance to end the week. In the same effort, closed the Gap as well. Meanwhile, MACD and VolDiv are turning upwards in support. Current flip to Bullish Confirms with breakout of trendline (after Gap closure) Watch these week's price action...
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by Auguraltrader
Full ES/SPX Trading Plan for Tmmr Sept 12thPlan for Thursday: Supports: 5554, 5543 (major), 5537, 5528, 5518-15 (major), 5511, 5503 (major), 5492 (major), 5483, 5474, 5467, 5464 (major), 5457, 5445 (major), 5438 (major), 5433, 5423 (major). Today’s session was incredibly strong. I’m still holding my 10% long runner from 5438, over 100 points below. With such a rally, setups are scarce. Why this is a risky time to trade: • Longs are risky as we’re 140 points off the lows, and chasing here without a pullback adds rug-pull risk. • Shorts are risky because fighting the trend after such a big move can be dangerous. • Chop risk is high because both longs and shorts are huge risk Traders need to recognize when the market is ideal for trading and when caution is required. After a huge uptrend day, the market needs time for price discovery: 1. Pullback (the deeper and faster, the better). 2. New pattern/structure forming. For now, I’m protecting profits and not actively trading. Looking for 1 trade. • First key support is 5543, but after such a rally, I’m not interested in buying the first dip, as these supports rarely hold. • A potential trade could arise if we dip to 5537 and recover. Below that, 5515-18 is worth watching, but 5492 is the more interesting level where I’d consider a small long. • If we see a rapid drop below 5492, it’s safer to wait for a recovery above 5502 before entering. If 5492 fails, the rally could be in trouble, with deeper supports at 5464, 5445, and 5424. Should 5424 give way, new lows are possible. Resistances: 5558 (major), 5565, 5572 (major), 5585 (major), 5593, 5605 (major), 5611, 5620, 5630 (major), 5638, 5644, 5654, 5660-62 (major), 5673 (major), 5705-10 (major), 5750, 5757-60 (major), 5794 (major). I avoid shorting into strength, especially after a day like this. Short squeezes in ES are violent, particularly during corrections or bear markets. Traders who want to short should watch 5585-93, a key zone for sellers. If broken, the path to all-time highs is smooth. Buyers Case for Tomorrow: After today’s monster squeeze, a pullback or red day tomorrow wouldn’t be surprising and might be healthy. Generally, the buyers case would see ES push higher to backtest 5585-93, which includes the bull flag resistance and 5585, where last week’s breakdown triggered the September crash. A strong buyers case would involve flagging under today’s highs and above 5542. Losing 5542 could signal a deeper pullback toward the supports discussed. Normally, I’d suggest adding on strength, but after a 140-point rally without a pullback, I can’t advocate chasing longs. Flagging between 5542 and 5566 could be constructive for a breakout to 5585-93, a decision point. If buyers return and accept that level, the next targets are 5605, 5630, and 5660 for a potential run at all-time highs. Sellers Case for Tomorrow: A real sellers case is distant. The short-term sellers case starts with failure at 5492. Breakdown trades below support often fail and trap traders. These are high-risk, high-reward trades with a low win rate. I’d avoid chasing them unless a failed breakdown recovers. If you’re not comfortable with getting trapped, it’s better to pass on these setups. My core focus is failed breakdowns, where a breakdown looks likely but reverses. To play this, I need to see a bounce off 5492. Below this, shorts become more attractive, but cautiously. The failure of 5542 tomorrow could also set up a high-risk short, though I’d need to see a failed breakdown at 5537 and a recovery before shorting. Summary: After today’s 140-point rally, I’m stepping back to let the market discover its next move. If 5543-37 holds, the path to 5585-93 is clear, and sellers may make a stand there. If 5543-37 fails, we’ll likely dip toward deeper supports and reassess.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ESMorg
S&P500 just needs to recover the 1D MA50.The S&P500 recovered yesterday a great deal of Friday's losses but still that wasn't enough to reclaim the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which was lost as the short-term Support level. As you realize, this is the key in order to resume and sustain the uptrend that started after the August 05 rebound near the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Channel Up and even before that since late 2022 and the bottom of the Inflation Crisis, the index only once corrected below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (the October 27 2023 Low). We mention that because Friday's decline stopped exactly on the 0.5 Fib. Every rise that followed until the next correction, reached at least +10.50% from the 0.5 Fib. As a result, once the index reclaims the 1D MA50, we will buy and set the next medium-term Target at 5950 (+10.50% from the 0.5 Fib). Notice also that yesterday's rebound was made exactly on the 1D RSI's Symmetrical Support, a level that initiated the December 19 2022 rebound. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingShot