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S&P 500, 6/20/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months. - For Tuesday, 4451.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 4606.50 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Tuesday, 2522.50 can contain session strength, while closing above 4522.50 should yield 4606.50 by the end of next week, able to contain buying through July.   Downside Tuesday, breaking/opening below 4451.75 allows 4404.25 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for indicating a good weekly high, 4299.50 then expected by the end of next week, where the market can place a weekly low, possibly into later July trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Bull Consolidation Ahead of the Holiday-shortened Next WeekS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 06/16 The spectacular bull run of the last few weeks fueled by speculation around the Fed policies and, possibly, an epic short squeeze, could be consolidating in the week ahead. Weekly options expirations could be playing another factor today. The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead, while also cautious about continued short squeezes off of any fresh shorts drawn in by the prints higher in the "new bull market". By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4442, 4420, or 4400 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4439, 4414, or 4394 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Extreme Greed and Overheated Market; Time to Walk AwaySo while I've had some gains on this market, especially below the 4300 range, at this point I cannot explain where this extreme level of optimism and risk taking behavior is coming from and I think it is time for me to walk away. While I can agree we are in a Bull Market, and I do not think at this point that we will be visiting the lows of 2022 without some major global catastrophe, I cannot get into any more movement upwards, and yet at the same time, I have decided continuing to try and catch the thrown knife is just going to lead to more issues for me. I MIGHT go Short at 4500, since 4500 is the highest projection for 2023 from ANY market and economic viewpoint, but even that just doesn't feel promising enough to mess with any of this. I've no idea what this rally is attached to other than AI excitement. The Forward Earnings of some companies are running at over 200x which is just absolute lunacy. So, all things being said, at this point I am walking away, and likely will continue to walk away until we drop back to may 4350 or so, and see if some of the excessive money into the FANG+ drops out and begins to get into a wider investment sentiment into the market. Safe trading if you stay in this, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
S&P 500, 6/16/23For Friday, 4446.50 can contain selling through next week, above which 4603.25 remains 2 - 3 week objective.   Upside Friday, 4509.00 can contain session strength, while closing above 4509.00 should yield 4603.25 by the end of next week, where the market can top out through July activity.   Downside Friday, breaking/opening below 4446.50 allows 4395.50 intraday, able to contain session weakness and the level to settle below for pivoting the market south into next week, 4263.75 then expected within 3 - 5 days, where the market can place a weekly low.   Overall, a weekly settlement today below 4446.50 will keep 4185.00 in reach by the end of July.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
CPI Headline down; Core flatlined; Markets continue to soarSo we ran along the 30m uptrending line yesterday, and keep nearing striking the 6hr insanely steep ascending trendline I didn't think we could maintain. Much to my dismay, I am sitting in my negative trade. I may soon just eat a loss, which will cause me to take a day off as per my risk management plan. Luckily at the moment I did go Long yesterday in a couple 6E contracts and it has me up around the same amount I've been losing on the ES contract I have. I still hold out that I think we need to find a leg down, even if just briefly to around 4200, which is crazy at this point that 4200 so quickly became a potential support line. The FANG stocks are just barely shy of their highest trading prices ever, and will be there by today or tomorrow at the current growth rate we've been seeing. I understand the trends keep calling for upward movement, but I am definitely just baffled by how optimistic we seem to be and the sky rocketing valuations we are dealing with as a market index. The growth in the IT sector is over 30% already year to date. The current expectation is absolutely no slowing in growth this year, that none of the monetary tightening is going to impact anything, and that the world is moving forward without any risk. I suppose I am just entirely too cautious to get behind such a narrative at the moment. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ESU Contract) 30m - 4389 Downtrend (6/13/2023) Higher Low 1Hr - 4329 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Lower High 2Hr - 4336 Uptrend (6/08/2023) Higher High 3Hr - 4270 Uptrend (6/01/2023) Higher High 4Hr - 4286 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 6Hr - 4333 Uptrend (6/02/2023) Higher High 12Hr - 4261 Uptrend (5/26/2023) Higher High Daily - 4175 Uptrend (3/31/2023) Only Trend Weekly - None Economic Data; As I said, CPI data came in, headline is down, but core inflation is mostly flat. Tomorrow is FOMC Rate day, so more fun to come! My sentiment overall is; WTF... I have nothing else haha Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SemperTrader
1
Markets Calling the "Hawkish" Bluff of Powell?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 06/15 The potential bull trap cautioned about by our models continues to be in play, while the markets seem to be calling the bluff of Powell's hawkish posturing in yesterday's "hawkish pause" presser. Nevertheless, bears should be cautious of not jumping the gun but wait for confirmation before initiating any shorts. It is a bull market until it is broken - currently, this bull run is not broken. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no positional trading plans for today, as they are wary of a potential bull trap ahead. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for THU. 06/15: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4425, 4400, 4392, 4475, or 4361 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4397, 4389, 4371, 4358, or 4337 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4420, and short exits on a break above 4343 or 4383. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #hawkishpause, #pause
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
S&P500 RSI overbought but can give one last pushThe S&P500 is extending the rally inside the long term Channel Up. The MA50 (1d) has been supporting and is untested since March 30th. Such a strong rally undeniably created an overbought RSI (1d). Last time the index gave a similar RSI pattern (August 10th 2022), the price gave a few more days of upside and one last push before a correction. Trading Plan: 1. Buy on the current market price and as long as the RSI (1d) remains above its MA level. Targets: 1. 4515 (Resistance 1 and April 21st 2022 top, near the top of the long term Channel Up). Tips: 1. The RSI (1d) technically gives a signal that the uptrend is coming to a stop and a correction is starting, when it crosses under its MA level. Use this to your advantage in order to book the profit earlier if needed. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TradingBrokersView
1
S&P 500, 6/15/23For Thursday, 4399.00 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4441.25 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June.   Holding below 4441.25 allows 4203.75 long-term support by the end of July or sooner, while closing today above 4446.50 signals our 4600.00 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.   Downside Thursday, 4367.50 can contain session weakness, while closing below 4367.50 indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4186.75 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P500 Crash: Trillions Vaporized in Titanic Fed-Inflated BubbleThe S&P 500 is facing a significant correction due to the potential bursting of the Federal Reserve's asset bubble, which is currently driving its artificially inflated values. Amidst signs of overheating markets, soaring valuations, and unsustainable monetary policies, the equity market is on the brink of a major downturn. The 2008 financial crisis, a debacle of epic proportions, wreaked havoc on a worldwide scale, decimating trillions of dollars in wealth. Subsequently, the COVID-19 pandemic, an unanticipated black swan event, exacerbated the situation, warranting an even more vigorous response from monetary authorities. To offset these crises' debilitating effects, the Federal Reserve rapidly escalated its balance sheet from a figure shy of $1 trillion in 2008 to a staggering excess of $8 trillion by 2021. This monumental expansion was effected primarily via the purchase of government securities and other asset classes, essentially serving as the economic bellows to reignite the embers of the economy and replenish market confidence. My prediction lies at the levels waiting beneath us including the 2.618, 4.236, 6.854, and 11.09.... A notable Fibonacci cluster is at 2,400... onky time will tell.
SP:SPXShort
by MichaelBsul
11
FOMC Decision - Hawkish Pause! Back to the Basics?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 06/14 Our trading plans published yesterday mentioned: "...our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow". Today's FOMC decision is a "hawkish pause", giving an open case to be made for both the bulls and the bears, as expected. With this in the rear view mirror now, expect some choppiness to prevail thru the 2:30pm ET press conference, and then some downside action to persist into the close unless some unexpectedly softish comments from Powell. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate going short on a break below 4310 and going long on a break above 4315, with a 45-point trailing stop. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for WED. 06/14: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4392, 4375, 4353, 4341, 4313, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4389, 4369, 4337, 4310, or 4296 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4348 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4325. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 02:31pm ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding
CBOE:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
Potential Market Pullback: ES Futures Nearing Key Fib. LevelIn today's analysis, we will be focusing on the E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ES) and examining a recent spike that reached $4,300 on the 1-hour chart. As the market currently sits at $4,280, we'll explore the possibility of a pullback towards the Fibonacci retracement zone, specifically the 0.618 and 0.50 levels at $4,230 (Location A) and $4,210 (Location C) respectively. Additionally, we'll highlight the significance of previous resistance at $4,230 and the presence of a strong support level at $4,200. Technical Analysis: 1. Spike and Fib Retracement: The recent price action in the ES futures witnessed a spike to $4,300, indicating a short-term bullish momentum. Drawing a Fibonacci retracement from the lowest low at $4,120 to the highest high at $4,300, we find the 0.618 retracement level at $4,230 and the 0.50 level at $4,210. These levels are important markers to watch for potential price reactions. 2. Previous Resistance: The $4,230 level coincides with a previous resistance zone, adding further significance to this price level. Markets often tend to exhibit support-turned-resistance behavior, suggesting that $4,230 could act as a significant barrier to further upside movement. 3. Strong Support at $4,200: Additionally, we observe a strong support level at $4,200, which has held firmly in the recent price action. This level may attract buyers looking to defend the ongoing bullish trend and could potentially contribute to a bounce or reversal in the price. 4. ADX Confirmation: Adding to the analysis, the ADX line (white) is currently declining, indicating a weakening of the recent bullish trend. Additionally, the Di- line (fuchsia) has experienced a recent spike, signaling increased bearish momentum. These ADX readings support the likelihood of a downward move in the near future. Given the recent spike and the presence of key Fibonacci retracement levels, along with the previous resistance-turned-potential support at $4,230 and the strong support at $4,200, it appears likely that the ES futures could experience a pullback into the $4,230-$4,210 zone. Traders and investors should closely monitor price action around these levels for potential opportunities, considering factors such as candlestick patterns, volume, and additional technical indicators to confirm the validity of the expected pullback.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maybethatguy
S&P 500, 6/14/23For Wednesday, 4402.50 can contain intraday weakness, the targeted 4436.00 - 4446.50 area in reach and able to contain buying through the balance of June, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 4203.75 within 3 - 5 weeks.   On the other hand, closing today above 4446.50 signals the 4596.50 longer-term objective over the next 2 - 3 weeks.   Downside Wednesday, 4353.00 can contain session weakness, indicates a good weekly high, 4263.75 then expected within several days, also able to contain session weakness and the point to settle below for indicating 4188.50 - 4203.75 long-term support within several more days.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Celebrating the Lowest High Inflation?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 06/13 With the post-CPI spike and the subsequent early session market action, our models are flashing potential for a bull trap ahead, possibly once the "fed pause" becomes official tomorrow. As we first stated to start this week, if you are a bull, it may be prudent to take some profits off the table; if you are a bear, you might want to wait for confirmation of downside bias. With heavy economic calendar this week culminating in the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, the focus will be back to the inflation and interest rates (potentially being confirmed as not a concern anymore, IF the FOMC pauses rate hikes as widely expected). Any concerns of potential recession seem to be not on the market's radar for now. As can be expected, our models are flashing heightened probabilities for spikes in both directions, with no clear directional bias yet. Positional Trading Models: Our positional models indicate no trading plans for today, as they are in an indeterminate state. By definition, positional trading models may carry the positions overnight and over multiple days, and hence assume trading an instrument that trades beyond the regular session, with the trailing stops - if any - being active in the overnight session. Aggressive/Intraday Models: Our aggressive, intraday models indicate the trading plans below for today. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans for TUE. 06/13: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4367, 4348, 4340, 4311, or 4300 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4364, 4354, 4334, 4308, or 4297 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exit on a break below 4345 or 4320, and short exits on a break above 4357 or 4326. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:26am ET or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #fomc, #fed, #fedspeak, #softlanding, #cpi
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom