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Trading Plans for FRI. 09/29 - Rebounding to Key Level?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for FRI. 09/29 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. This morning, the index is attempting to test the 4340 level. If the daily close is going to be above 4340, then our models will negate the bearish bias and initiate a mildly bullish bias for Monday. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. But, the near term bias will be determined by today's daily close as specified above. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4330, 4321, 4303, 4296, or 4276 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4327, 4316, 4292, or 4273 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4300, and explicit short exits on a break above 4286. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:46am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
VIX and S&P500 This is why stocks may rise now.Following yesterday's green stock market reaction, we compare on today's analysis VIX (Volatility Index) to the S&P500 (SPX) price action on the 1D time-frame. Our goal is to find clues to how the Volatility Index can affect the stocks. As you can see, VIX is trading within an Ascending Triangle which 2 days ago got rejected on its top (Higher Highs) trend-line. All this while its Lower Highs trend-line since September 2022 (1 year back) sits right above it. At the same time the S&P500 index found the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of its Channel Down (while the Higher Lows trend-line since the October 2022 market bottom sits right below) and on first impression appears to be rebounding. Being negatively correlated, the more VIX drops, i.e. market volatility calms/ decreases, the more likely it is for the stock market to rise, at least for the short-term towards the Channel Down top (similarly VIX to the Triangle's Support). In order to see it resume the long-term bullish trend, VIX most likely needs to break its Support. It is not unlikely as the market may respect the long-term Lower Highs (similarly Higher Lows for SPX) and hold it as new rejection point, but for the time being we have to keep our perspective on the short-term patterns (Ascending Triangle and Channel Down respectively) until shown otherwise. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:VIXShort
by TradingShot
4
SP500 Is At First Major SupportSP500 is at first major support based on several evidences from technical point of view and from Elliott wave perspective. SP500 is making nice and clean A-B-C correction as we have been warning about in past updates. Below are some of the important key points for a potential bounce on stocks in next few weeks. End of Q3 Normally end of the quarter are important flows, because the portfolio adjustments, so ti can impact the trends, and causes a change in cycles Seasonal Chart Of SP500 Is Bullish For Octobe Historically speaking, September is not good month for stocks, but October is. So, can we see a bounce on stocks? Trendline Support As long as trendline holds, trend is up! June GAP Fill. When gap is filled, flows will change because some unfilled orders got exacetued int hat price, so the market can change a direction after fill. A-B-C correction Thats a bullish pattern, because it represents a correction within uptrend. Its a pause that can send price higher PUT/CALL Put call ratio represents a sentiment; if a lot of puts are being bought then investors are affradi of falling prices, so they want to hedge their portfolio. But if puts are moving into extremes, like over-corded reaction, then be aware of the opposite, because market moves in cylces.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by ew-forecast
2
Trading Plans for THU. 09/28 - Falling Knife Hit the Floor, Yet?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for THU. 09/28 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Until the 4300 handle is regained, there is no indication of any let up in the downside pressure. If the downward pressure continues, our models indicate 4200-4210 area as the near-term support. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4303, 4291, 4252, or 4238 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4287, 4247, or 4234 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4300 or 4266, and explicit short exits on a break above 4270. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
All Targets Hit in the SP500 FuturesToday we hit my long standing targets and so far have bounced. I have carried an orange bullish count and a bearish blue count on this chart for a while now. If we can develop an impulsive 5-wave structure up that breaches 4508. I'll remove the bearish blue count targeting 4030-4060. Should we rally in a corrective 3-wave manner and fail to take out key resistance, then breach today's LOD at 4277.25. Then I will remove the orange bullish count. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!
by maikisch
2
/ES (SPY) Gap Fill Long with Confluence/Odds Enhancers!While wariness remains re: larger timeframe structure for US equities (+ continued weakness in US gov’t bonds, USD strength), we are stalking near/intermediate-term longs via downside futures gaps in both the ES and NQ. The YM and, to a lesser extent RTY, are also approaching possible buy zones, thus bolstering this trade’s attractiveness. While the primary premise of the trade is filling the downside gap into “demand”, odds are enhanced via the trendline and anchored VWAP, which coincide with ~4300 (major psychological #). When placing equity index futures trades at LionHart, we closely watch potentially correlated markets (VIX, DXY, ZF/N/B…). Volatility has had a nice move alongside the downdraft in stocks, but may be a bit overaccelerated as it approaches “supply” (red lines). If equity indexes fill downside gaps and pierce buy zones, watch the VIX and other related markets for reversal signals. Regarding trade concerns/targeting, we sometimes prefer subjective target/trade management via small timeframe charts; that methodology will be applied here. New overhead supply has formed ~4360 and traditional resistance traders may defend ~4340-50, so trade profit margin is not ideal. Given that equity markets have a bullish bias, though, we still believe capital is worth deploying. If you can purchase multiple contracts, consider scaling ahead of the abovementioned levels and hold runners if prices press higher. The red zones = supply, where unfilled sell orders remain. Thank you for reading, thoughts/feedback welcome, and good luck/happy trading! Jon
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
S&P500 Do or die moment for the bullish trend.The S&P500 / US500 is approaching the 1day MA200 (intact since March 24th) and its 1day RSI just become oversold for the first time since September 27th 2022 (exactly 1 year ago!). That time was the begining of the Bear Cycle's bottom formation. Additionally, we are at the bottom of the Channel Up pattern that started after the September 2022 bottom, so it is easy to understand that it is now or never if the bullish trend is to be sustained. Buy on the current market price and target 4820, which is the All Time High of January 2022 and slightly under the 1.618 Fibonacci extension (targeted on prior rally). This approach is negated if the price closes a 1day candle under the MA200. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by TheCryptagon
5
Trading Plans for WED. 09/27 - Falling Knife...Where's the FloorS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/27 Since our published trading plans last week pointing out that week's 4505 level as potential top for the near term, the market has been in a free fall mode. Our models indicate 4340 as the level to close above for the current bearish bias to be negated. Until the 4300 handle is regained, there is no indication of any let up in the downside pressure. If the downward pressure continues, our models indicate 4200-4210 area as the near-term support. The "higher for longer" monetary policy is yet to begin showing its impact on business earnings, and it could take one to two quarters more for us to see the earnings impact - and, hence the analyst forward estimates - which could have some more impact on the market multiples in the short-to-medium term. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4313, 4304, 4287, 4269, or 4240 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4283, 4265, 4254, or 4238 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4310 or 4301, and explicit short exits on a break above 4257. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:16am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #higher4longer, #higherforlonger
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom
QQQ Trade IdeasThe QQQ along with the S&P500 and ES1, are all sitting at support right now. The most probable outcome is that price SHOULD go higher. If it does move higher from these lows, a stop-loss below the most recent wick low would make the most sense with 1% risk if we were to lose this level, i have a few other key levels below that i'm interested in trading based on the price action at those levels. Don't trade with what you're not willing to lose. Calculate Your Risk/Reward! Use risk management so you don't lose more than 1% of your account per trade. Every day the charts provide new information. You have to adjust or get REKT. Love it or hate it, hit that thumbs up and share your thoughts below! This is not financial advice. This is for educational purposes only.
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Navitility
S&P500 Entered the 2 year High Supply/Demand Zone. Will it hold?Time to leave the short-term charts for S&P500 (SPX) aside and look again at the long-term ones as the price failed last week to recover the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and is extending this week the decline towards the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ** Higher Lows and 2-year Supply/ Demand Zone ** It hasn't yet hit the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the October 13 2022 market bottom but has entered a 2 year High Supply/ Demand Zone, which has acted as the strongest Pivot Belt since October 2021, with 4 registered holds (green arrows) and 4 rejections (red arrows). It is clear that the market considered it a key during the previous Bear Cycle as well as the Bull Cycle. ** Inflation Crisis vs Subprime mortgage Crisis ** As you can see on the chart, we compare this Inflation Crisis price action with the bottom and subsequent recovery of the Subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 - 2010. The curved bottom on the 1D RSI suggests that we are so far aligned to a certain extent with the first susbtantial correction of the recovery which on May 06 2010 hit (and breached) the 1D MA200. The bottom was priced 2 months later on the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. ** So what now? ** The 0.382 Fibonacci on today's sequence is on 4185, marginally above the bottom of the Pivot Zone and almost where the 1D MA200 is currently. This presents us with the probability that if the Higher Lows fails and the 1D MA200 breaks, the market has high chances to consider the bottom of the 2-year Pivot Zone as a High Demand level again. If that happens, we will be buyers for as long as 1D candles close above the bottom of the Zone. Based on the 2009 - 2010 price action, it can rise towards the -0.236 Fib ext and reach the 4820 All Time High (ATH) by Q2 2024. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
6
Mr. S&P500, it's decision time again.So, here we are, below the red Center-Line. What now? If the Bears are successful, then we go south. Target is the at least the white Warning-Line, or the red Lower-Medianline-Parallel. What ever is hit first. On the other hand, P3 could be in and we get a bounce up for a re-test to P4. This is a tricky situation. Even more because the Nasdaq looks ready for a rebound. What shall we do? To me it's clear: - if I short it, then my stop is above the CL. I don't know where yet, but it will not be super close. I rather play it with Options to give my idea more time, even if we get a bounce for a re-test of the L-MLH (gren) or the white WL. - If I wait for more information, I accept the potential for not being on the Submarine if it tanks. What would I loose? Nothing - there's always another trade. - And finally, on a re-test of the green L-MLH/WL, I can stalk a short from there. Isn't that relaxing, to have so much opportunities? §8-) Play it save Tr8dingN3rds.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
S&P500 Crazy as it may seem, we may see 9000 by the end of 2026!S&P500 / US100 is having a strong correction these past two months (August-September). However on the wider scales such as the 1week time frame this is only a minor technical correction. It is near forming a 1week MA50-100 Bullish Cross. Last time it formed this pattern was in September 2016 and the index never broke under either MA level. It went on to peak near the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. Similar peak (Fib 3.0) and Channel Up leading to it (of course we can't count the COVID crash into it) on the December 2021 top. The RSI pattern between now and 2016 is similar as well. Based on the above and crazy as it may sound, it is a technical possibility to see the Channel Up that started in late 2022, extend into the end of 2026 and price a top near 9,000. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:SPX
by TheCryptagon
1
Weekly Update: Why is the Street Asleep at the Wheel?Post 2009 Financial Crisis, they made movies about the housing and economic downturn. Here’s the thing, there are over 10M financial advisors, money managers, hedge fund managers, and fundamental and technical analysts in the industry. This doesn’t include the geniuses in the Financial News business. However, why did only a hand full of that total population (less than a dozen) see the SPX dropping 60% from 1587 to 666 in a matter of 5 months? Did you watch the movies? Because the reason was on average, housing has always been a 3-5% asset yielding per year over the long term. There was no way the housing market was going to crash. 10M smart people and only a dozen got it right? What does that say about the other 9.999M smart people in the industry? No, I’m not writing about how I am smarter than 10M professionals in the industry, but you have to admit, by and large, EVERYONE IN THE INDUSTRY got it wrong. It's easy to manage money when the market just goes up for 100 years...what about when that is no longer the case. During the very long cycle paradigm shifts, the old norms no longer apply. In my opinion, they’re cranking up the ignorant train once again. I’ll attempt to over simply this. INTEREST RATE REVERSION TO THE MEAN Most market participants are not used to interest rates at 10%...I on the other hand, used to think 10% was competitive. But long-term cycles being what they're are, their purpose is to clean the slate, re-educate participants, get rid of the old and welcome the new, all while reverting back to an equilibrium or a cycle norm. I'm curious when the street will stop discussing soft landing, no landing, higher for longer, etc. Start concerning themselves with how our economy looks and functions next year, the year after that, and 5 years from now in a long-term rising interest rate environment. I have a feeling the 10M in the financial services industry will shrink, and those smart people, will have get a lot smarter to survive.
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
S&P Could find support here Following a notable correction, the S&P index may find support at its current level, particularly if the lower boundary of the green box at 4,350 holds. In the event of a successful hold, we could potentially witness a rally towards the initial target of 4,410. Subsequently, after a consolidation phase, a further move towards a level around 4,440 could be in the cards. However, it's crucial to be aware that should the support within the green box fail, we may witness a decline towards the 4,300 mark.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by RF_Trading
SP500 Has An Unfinished A-B-C Structure; Elliott Wave AnalysisSP500 has been bullish most of the year; a trend that can resume after a corrective pullback that is underway now, seen in wave 4 on a daily chart. However, wave 4 should then be made by three waves before correction can come to an end; which is not the case yet, as price action down from 4600 can be ongoing impulse; ideally sub wave 3 of (C) now, so more weakness for wave 5 of (C) is probable to 4300 after a wave 4 pullback that can retest 4400 resistance area.
CME_MINI:ESZ2023
by ew-forecast
1
S&P500: Near the bottom. Recovery should start early October.S&P500 is trading on a descending channel, on a very bearish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 36.220, MACD = -31.420, ADX = 38.889). The 1D RSI is on the same level as the August 17th bottom of this Channel Down. This decline is approaching a Triple Support Band: the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA50 which are headed directly for the bottom of the Channel Up that started exactly a year ago. We expect the bottom to be formed inside these two weeks and early next month to see the first signs of recovery. A Cup recovery pattern has been the common mode of rise these past 12 months, so we set a R1 target (TP = 4,600) for mid to end of November. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500
by InvestingScope
4
Trading Plans for MON. 09/25 - Market Bull Exhausted?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for MON. 09/25 As our daily trading plans reinforced before the FOMC meeting stated: "...any indications of the Fed potentially pivoting to "being done" can spark a frenzied rally in the coming weeks but any unexpectedly hawkish indications could further accelerate the downward push. Nobody has the crystal ball that can tell which way this could go until after the FOMC meeting". The unexpectedly hawkish Fed stance drove the markets down and continuing to push it lower. Our published trading plans on Friday, 09/15 stated: "Models continue to indicate that the index has to close above 4507 on a daily close basis to flip to a bullish bias. Between 4460 and 4507, models indicate an indeterminate bias". This week's 4505 level could be the top for the near term. A daily close above 4404 is needed for our models to turn bullish again. Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans: For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4354, 4332, 4324, 4315, or 4304 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4350, 4329, 4321, or 4302 with a 9-point trailing stop.  Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4313. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:01am EST or later. By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention). To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals. (WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)  NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS: (i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s). (ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors. (iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk. #spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #FOMC
SP:SPX
by TradersAIDotCom