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S&P 500: Time to turn around 📈The S&P500 dipped into our turquoise Target Zone (coordinates: 5025 – 4933 points) with its recent setback. The low of the turquoise wave 4 may have already been reached, but another downward move back into the Zone is still possible. If the index even falls below the support at 4864 points, the magenta wave Alt.(2) will head down into our next Target Zone (coordinates: 4727 – 4584 points). This alternative scenario is 30% likely as of now.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by MarketIntel
Liquidity Crisis may happen, Market TOPPED OUTLiquidity Crisis may happen most of hedgefund did buying treasury bond and then treasury bond margin loan , so they made almost 50x leverage on bond market times over and over now only t-bill s gonna be recognized as collateral so t-bill market happend this method But NFP is too strong, FED didn't do Rate Cut now So t-bill is bubbled now, we are gonna kill it and stock market just knew there's plenty of liquidity until today Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked. So market topped out
TVC:NDQShort
by newjeansoldjean
5
Trends in conflict; Signs support "Sell in May and Walk Away"Trends into today are; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5111 Uptrend (4/17/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5220 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5203 Downtrend (4/12/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 5166 Downtrend (4/12/2023) Higher Low Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High As explained in the video, the shorter-term trends are calling for lower moves, although the longer-term trends are violated and would be calling for a rebound. In spite of that conflict, I don't expect that rebound in the immediate future at this point. I go into a longer explanation, but overall I have been shorting the market, and currently have a Short position from 5200. I am looking for this position to hit around the 5000 mark, and then may cash out and wait and see what happens at that 5000 mark. I may look for a reversal position if we head near that area. The vibe is basically that Inflationary issues persist, geopolitical tension could cause chaos, and ultimately the US Economy is amazing and resilient. Next week we have major earnings though, so this short move lower could be done for and we could head into a rebound then, before heading lower or at least sideways once again going into May, as we see the old trading technique of "Sell in May and Walk Away" hold true. General Sentiment - Bearish Overall Sentiment - Bullish Safe Trading, and remember your risk management
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
Volmageddon. Please Buckle Up. The Plane Will Be Landing SoonStocks are vulnerable to a 5% 'air-pocket drawdown' as greedy traders short volatility. Tuesday's stock-market pullback on February, 13 after a hot inflation report actually showed us something else about the market. It turns out that it did… an overcrowded short side of the options market which was reminiscent of the 2018 and 2020 'Volmageddon' events. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF AMEX:SVXY graph says selling volatility is on the hot spot, like four and six years ago, in 2020 and 2018 respectively. The "Volmageddon" episode happened six years ago after traders piled into a bunch of ETFs that were designed to return the inverse of market volatility (essentially betting on a calm market). And when volatility went up in February 2018 and in February 2020, it tanked those strategies, sending the S&P 500 down more than 10% in two weeks. Investors appear to be taking risky bets again, specifically in VIX futures, which are assets that let investors bet on future volatility. As VIX futures expire, the S&P 500 is seeing stronger price reactions. Based on the magnitude of the move in VIX futures, there is an increasing threat that the rising level of greed in the 'short-volatility' trade, similar to what we saw in 2018 and in 2020, could result in an air-pocket drawdown of 5% or more in the S&P 500, to 4800 points respectively. The short-volatility trade became very popular strategy after 2010 when volatility was low, and traders could make money betting against market turbulence. The Cboe Volatility Index, which is also dubbed as the TVC:VIX or the market's "fear gauge," is sitting around 14, near historical lows. The rebound in interest in short-volatility strategies is once again posing a risk to the broader markets here as a negative catalyst can clearly spark a momentous, derivatives-driven selloff in the broader stock market like that which we saw in 2018 and in 2020. It's not a major concern right away as volatility upticks have been small, and the S&P 500 has remained resilient. The market shrugged off Tuesday's pullback quite fast. But it's worth keeping all your eyes on as all 2024 progress can be erased shortly. Going forward, these expirations will remain dates to keep in mind as the threat of volatility will be elevated as we move further into 2024. Technical graph for CBOE:SPX says we are still in the upside channel since Q4'22, near its upper line, with further perspective opportunities to erase 2024 gain, shrugging back to mid-line around 4800 points. Market breadth says also there're huge divergence in CBOE:SPX and in NASDAQ:NDX all the 2024, as 50-days indicators move firmly down all the year, while indices are still up so far.
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by Pandorra
4
S&P500 Dead-cat-bounce before one last bottom?Our last call on the S&P500 (SPX) couldn't have gone better as the Bearish Megaphone pattern we expected (April 05, see chart below) was eventually materialized and easily hit on Tuesday our 5050 Target: At the moment the index is below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been the main Support since November 03 2023 and is headed towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) above which the last two main Bearish Legs of the 19-month Channel Up made their first Dead-cat-bounce (March 02 and August 18 2023). As long as this dead-cat-bounce is contained below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, we see more likely one last corrective wave towards Support 1 and close to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As long as at the time the 1D RSI is on its Support Zone, we will buy for the long-term and target the top of the 19-month Channel Up at 5400. If the price breaks above the 0.786, we will have a pattern invalidation and buy the break-out instead, targeting again 5400. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500: First 4H Death Cross since August 14th 2023!S&P500 has formed today a Death Cross on the 4H timeframe after 8 months (August 14th 2023), turning bearish on the 1D technical outlook as well (RSI = 37.122, MACD = -81.00, ADX = 53.782) as yesterday it crossed under the 1D MA50 for the first time since November 3rd 2023. Both are technically very bearish developments and according to the last 4H Death Cross, we remain bearish until we complete at least a -5.87% decline (TP = 4,980). Observe how the symmetry among the two fractals is very strong, both the Death Cross and the 1D MA50 breakout were done around the same Fibonacci levels. See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1
S&P500(US500):🔴Is it Bearish...?!🔴(Details on caption)By examining the ES1! 4-hour chart (S&P), we can figure out that, the market structure is bearish, so we looking for a sell position. In that case, the price had a bearish reaction to all of the bearish Pd Array, so we can expect a bearish reaction on the balance price range (BPR). In my perspective, sell-side liquidity is a draw on liquidity. Until this sell-side is not purging I don't think about buy position. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️15/04/2024 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by VahidTradingCR
1
Aggressive rate cuts are off the tableThe SPX retreated nearly 3% from its all-time highs following last week’s print showing a higher-than-anticipated Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March 2024. This marks a second consecutive month of accelerating CPI in the United States, which presents an obstacle for the FED in its more than two-year-long battle against inflation. Plus, it makes it increasingly unlikely that the central bank will engage in aggressive rate cutting as is still widely expected. Not only is it improbable that the FED will ease its monetary policy during the FOMC meeting between 30th April and 1st May 2024, but the latest print puts future rate cuts in jeopardy as well. Since the start of the hiking cycle, we have believed that it will be challenging for the FED to lower rates quickly. Thus far, this opinion has been supported by elevated and sticky inflation. Furthermore, rising prices of commodities make an arguably good case for this to stay true also in the upcoming months, tying FED’s hands for a little longer. In turn, this raises the chances of the central bank constricting the economy too much, leading to an economic accident. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of VIX. Yellow arrows indicate important technical developments in the past month. As the reality of no aggressive rate cuts is starting to sink in, there is a good chance that volatility will stay elevated in the near future. Illustration 1.02 The price of WTI crude oil rose nearly 20% this year. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have been playing an important role in influencing its price over the past few months. If there is a broader conflict between Israel and Iran (which is at the highest odds in the past ten years), then oil could rise in the upper range between $90 and $100, putting further pressure on inflation. Illustration 1.03 The image above shows the SPX in the ascending channel. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout below the upper bound of the channel. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bullish (stalling) *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXShort
by Tradersweekly
S&P500 Channel Down Top Sell Signal.The S&P500 index is trading inside a Channel Down. Every break over the MA50 (4h) forms its Lower High and is a sell signal. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as it is over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 5125 (expected contact with the MA50 1d). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support, which is a Bullish Divergence in contrast with the Channel Down Lower Highs. This potentially indicates that after the MA50 test, the index may resume the long term bullish trend.. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by TradingBrokersView
1
SPY All eyes on the 1D MA50. Will it hold?SPY broke below the (blue) Channel Up and the only Support standing now is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This level has been holding since the November 03 2023 break-out. If it holds, a new pattern will emerge but the medium-term bullish trend will stay intact. If the 1D MA50 breaks though, we expect a bearish extension similar to August 15 2023, February 24 2023 and December 16 2022. As you can see those 1D MA50 bearish break-outs coincided with the 1D CCI breaking below the -100.00 oversold barrier. This is the level that the CCI is at today. As a result, once the 1D MA50 breaks, we expect further decline towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). The shortest decline among the pull-backs mentioned above has been -5.93%. This gives us a rough estimate of 495.00. That would be the most optimal buy entry for the long-term. Our Target by the end of May will be 524.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
AMEX:SPY
by TradingShot
1
Tomorrow is Make or BREAKIf the market does not give us a meaningful bounce tomorrow (~+0.75%) and hold, and instead breaks lower, things could accelerate to the downside pretty quickly. The downside risk at this point is heavier than the upside potential so all I'm saying is be careful. Would not personally be buying at these levels because you may be holding the bag if this goes wrong. Bullish count is green. Where the last couple weeks have been a complex consolidation pattern of WXYXZ and now the markets will shrug off everything and keep going up. If this happens then we could be looking at a further euphoric meltup. Bearish count is red. Where the last couple weeks have been a 1-2 1-2 1-2, which.......would be bad. Like....really bad. That said, I'm sure most people here would say there's no way, but based on the candles and price action here, this is the bear case. How could things go badly? If Oil prices continue upward. If bond yields continue upward. If precious metals continue upward These do not all have to happen at the same time, but if we see strength continue in these areas then that is bad news, especially if yields and oil trend upward still. That means inflation. IF inflation is not slayed and just slowly dying at this point, and is really a fire smoldering that is ready to start a fire again, then markets could be tipped upside down. I am holding long positions in growth stocks that I feel are very undervalued, but am also holding a large volatility position because I think the market is easily euphoric at this point and I see a lot of complacency around. Also, you can keep an eye on EUR/USD. I have noticed that it is pretty positively correlated with the stock market with a bit of a lag, so when EUR/USD starts falling, the SPY and markets may be forming a top or going into consolidation, and alternatively when EUR/USD forms a bottom and spikes up with markets it can help give confidence that the move up is real. Let me know what you all think. Cheers,
AMEX:SPY
by MonetaryRebel
2
S&P500 Bull Cycle intact. 100 year long Blueprint revealed!A lot of talk is being done lately on whether the S&P500 index (SPX) has maxed now that it made new All Time Highs (ATH) or it is in need of a strong correction etc. Those who have been following us for long here, know that in times like this, we like to keep a long-term perspective and give you the picture unfiltered with the facts only. Along those lines, we present you the S&P's Cycle Analysis on a century wide scale. As you can see, since the Great Depression, the stock market started to creat a pattern with clear systemic behaviors. Each time there are fundamentals involved that merely serve as 'reasons' to fill out and complete this pattern. Following the 1932 Great Depression bottom, the 1st Secular Bull Cycle begun, that lasted for 28.5 years (343 months) rising by +1888%. Then the Secular Bear Cycle started in the form of a Megaphone pattern. Its 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and the 2nd Low (the Cycle's bottom) was formed below the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line). The 2nd Secular Bull Cycle lasted for almost 26 years (311 months) and saw +2361% growth. As per our blueprint, the Secular Bear Cycle was initiated once the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) broke. Again the 1st Low was formed below the 1M MA100 and the 2nd Low below the 1M MA200. With regards to the current Cycle, which is what most are interested at naturally, notice how the 1M MA50 has been supporting since late 2011. It emphatically held both on the September 2022 Low (Inflation crisis bottom) and the March 2020 Low (COVID crash bottom). This indicates again that as long as it supports, the Secular Bull Cycle will be extended. Based on the previous Cycle-to-Cycle parameters the model suggests that the current Cycle should be a little than 23 years long (279 months, i.e. 32 month shorter than the previous) and rise by +2834% (+473% higher than the previous). This may all be speculation theoretically but trends that keep repeating themselves over the decades are not. Technically those filter out all news, fundamentals, geopolitical, macroeconomical noise and give rise to a pure behavioral perspective, the essence of traditional Economics. Are you willing to bet against this blueprint? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
ES1! S&P500 PREPARE NEXT WEEK - IMPORTANT PRICE POINTS - DAILYThanks a lot you the likes, really appreciate! It is not financial advice just recreational trading idea sharing ____________________________________________________________________ - 5332.5: price point identified as potential optimal entry for short direction trade. Depends on the velovity of the market when if hitting that price point again. - 5168.75 to 5190.75: probable important zone where the price can pullback up or break with strength. - 4938.25: Possible down important price point as we can only look behind and in prices lower than the actual price. Above the actual price it is not possible to see where the market can go. So market will do what it has to do if evolving above 5332.5 . - Some other zone down there but it is not to analyze yet has there is too many important price points above it. Probably observing what the market does from Monday to Wednesday and see which entries can be done on Thursday/Friday for next week.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by Diallo_Charts_Ideas
Holy Cannoli...So many things saying sell and take profits right now it's not even funny. 500 is the first real support. If that green wave iii uptrend is to stay in play, we need to bounce at 500, which would only be -3% or so. Then 485 is the next support at the bottom of the uptrend channel. If 485 is broken then those red downtrend C waves are in play. 1. SPY ran into trouble at the top of it's uptrend channel. Technical short-term sell indicator. 2. SPY is about to close the week with a bearish engulfing pattern. This is actually a call for a large downtrend. Look at the large white arrows pointing down. Those are all similar weekly candles that led to major corrections. 3. Gold/Silver/Oil are all going up meaningfully. Inflation coming back...? Or the markets may finally be pricing in geopolitical tensions with Iran now vowing revenge. 4. The BTFP ceased extending new loans on March 11, 2024. www.federalreserve.gov 5. Reverse Repo is running out of money to pump into the market. fred.stlouisfed.org 6. I am counting 8 unfilled gaps, which...by no means do they need to all be filled. There is no law that states gaps must be filled, but rather it is a tendency. This is similar to the tendency of pull backs to be alternating in character (if the last pullback was long a choppy, the next tends to be short and sharp) Extra Sidenote/Soapbox here: Believe it or not, long term bond yields are still in an uptrend. Credit is still constrained, and we'd already be in a financial crisis if it weren't for the fact that the Fed is allowing banks to void the mark-to-market principle in treasuries. This means if a bank purchased 1 trillion in treasuries, but they are down -50%, they can still currently claim to have 1 trillion in "liquidity", which is absolutely not the case because if they had to sell them tomorrow either the Fed would have to buy them and take gigantic losses, or the market would pay them the market rate and the banks would fail. Imagine your brokerage account was down by 50%, but you could claim you have 100% of those liquid assets and go get a loan back off that. That would be illegal for us mere peasants. We are in weird, weird times. www.conference-board.org Check out the US10Y
AMEX:SPYShort
by MonetaryRebel
2
5204 is a major trend support to watchJob data this morning caused a movement exactly as I anticipated and discussed yesterday. The move lower I suspected came yesterday as I anticipated, so now I'm just looking to see if we can move below this 5204 12hr support line. To date, the 12hr has been the major support level to stop any movement down since November which is why we have not seen a Daily trend change for nearly 6 months. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5248 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 1Hr - 5226 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 2Hr - 5226 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 3Hr - 5197 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Lower Low 4Hr - 5260 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5204 Downtrend (4/4/2024) Higher Low Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High Overall, I will link my video from yesterday if you want an in-depth analysis on why I predicted we would move lower. Major thing I've heard, is people are no discussing only 2 rate cuts this year. So again, we went into the year with 6 rate cuts priced into the market. We dropped to 3 rate cuts even though we never REALLY priced out the 3 extra rate cuts, and now we are discussing only 2 rate cuts this year, and the potential of them not coming in June. Safe trading, and remember your risk management.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
First Sell/Short Signals since January - TrendsLonger video but hopefully it clarifies my position in the market. I do NOT have a short position yet, but I am looking for one at this point. I might wait until either the close of the day depending on where we are OR take a short position if the overall day goes negative. Trends into today; Last Macro Trend Signal Spots (ES Contract) 30m - 5724 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High 1Hr - 5277 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High 2Hr - 5278 Uptrend (4/3/2024) Lower High 3Hr - 5291 Downtrend (4/1/2024) Higher Low* 4Hr - 5260 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 6Hr - 5250 Downtrend (4/2/2024) Higher Low 12Hr - 5087 Uptrend (2/22/2024) Higher High Daily - 4378 Uptrend (11/3/2023) Higher High Weekly - 4769 Uptrend (12/11/2023) Higher High Monthly - 5304 Uptrend (03/31/2024) Higher High In order to try and keep on point I actually wrote some notes for this video (yes, in spite of the length, I felt I really tried to keep on point). What I will do instead of rewriting any of the video is just copy and paste my notes into here. NYFANG / MAG 7 still pulling market up (down day even though they had gone up .6%) Economic Calendar JOLTs was uneventful NonFarm Employment is up - Job Growth seems good ISM Non Manufacturing Prices lower - Includes pay being lower Powell Speaks - Nothing really new - Wants to cut rates (already priced in) - Data will drive decision (says that every time) Today - Jobless Claims (No expectation other than strong job market) Tomorrow - Unemployment (Not expecting anything new) - Even if it does, how do you price in this news? Is good bad, or bad good? Good is good? Trends; 30m, 1hr, 2hr all in lower highs 3hr had a higher low but if uptrend hits, will now be lower high So 30m to 3hr trends call for lower 4hr, 6hr, 12hr - call for rebound up Daily is still sitting massively overbought Weekly is normal bull market signal even if we go lower Monthly just hit uptrend, but Monthly has NEVER done anything but higher highs and higher lows back to the 80s (no data past that) For that to change we would have to go below 3846 - EVEN IF THAT HAPPENED, no historical data to explain what that could mean (Must like we saw with the lower low of a weekly trend) Sell Signals The shorter term trends are calling for lower movements Daily uptrend is well, well, well overcooked MACD Momentum (Daily) has crossed below zero line. Last time we had that was January when I traded shorts several times and made money. Has historically been MOSTLY accurate. MACD Momentum had a sell signal 3/26 but it was after down days so uneventful Weekly Overbought RSI/MFI Buy signals (or at least cautionary flat moving signals) Trends of 4hr and above call for MACD itself is not below the zero line (so not a prime bearish / shorting environment) Hope you found the information helpful. Safe trading, and remember your risk management plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by SemperTrader
S&P500 hit the 4H MA200 after 5 months!The S&P500 index (SPX) came extremely close to hitting the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) yesterday for the first time in 5 months (since November 02 2023)! As you realize, this is a key Support for the uptrend and the Channel Up in particular, which has been the dominant pattern these months to drive the index to High after High. The fact that the price is rebounding upon this 4H MA200 test, keeps the trend bullish. If it breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again, we will continue buying and target 5350, which will be a little less than a +4.35% rise from yesterday's bottom. As you can see on the chart, rallies to Higher Highs between +4.35% and +5.00% have been the standard within this pattern. If on the other hand, the index closes a 4H candle below the 4H MA200, we will turn bearish on the break-out, first targeting the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and if also broken, extend to 5050 (Support 1). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TradingShot
S&P500: Bearish reversal to the 1D MA100.The S&P500 remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.356, MACD = 47.470, ADX = 36.597) but today is having so far the strongest bearish 1D candle since December 15th 2022. Having hit the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up at the start of the week, this can be a technical correction to at least the 1D MA100 if the 1D MA50 breaks. Consequently we have a short term TP = 4,980. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by InvestingScope
1