S&P500 5 month Channel Up bottomed. Bullish reversal started.S&P500 / US500 is trading inside a Channel Up since the August 5th bottom.
Wednesday's Fed fueled correction crossed under the 1day MA50 but stabilized yesterday and today found support over the 1day MA100 and rebounded.
This low is very close to the bottom of the Channel Up and the 1day MA100 was the level that supported the early September pull back.
The 1day RSI is also reversing, and the 3 times it posted a similar pattern inside the Channel Up, it was a bottom.
Buy and target 6200 (+7.10% from the bottom).
Previous chart:
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S&P 500 Comes Back From Extreme "Extreme"In the S&P 500, we observe a very similar scenario to the Nasdaq (see link to the NQ chart).
It’s worth noting that we’ve seen this situation a few times before: the price traded outside the orange fork, moved back into the fork, but then left behind a "Hagopian" and shot back above it.
This is irrational market behavior caused by artificial buying pressure (Gamma Squeeze).
Now, we see the market bouncing off the 1/4 line between the warning line and the U-MLH of the white fork. And yet again, we’re trading within the orange fork.
What now?
Back up again or is it really heading down this time?
Read my lips: "I - Don’t - Know." §8-)
Buuuut, the projection and the extent of the over extension lead me to believe that this time, it’s going to crash!
Like in the NQ, my stance here is **short** for the coming weeks, and possibly even months.
S&P500 hit the MA50 (1d). Huge buy signal.S&P500 hit today its MA50 (1d) following the Fed Rate announcement.
At the same time, it is testing the bottom of August's Channel Up.
As long as it closes daily inside the pattern, this is a strong buy opportunity.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 6200 (+5.75% rise similar to the previous one).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) hit its 3 month Support Zone. If it reverses on it, that might be an even better signal for a buy entry.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
S&P500 entering a new Bull Cycle according to the Dollar IndexThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been rising aggressively since the October 2022 market bottom, as it recovered from the Inflation Crisis of 2022. Despite the All Time Highs (ATH) that it is currently trading at, we have strong evidence based on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that it is entering a new, more structured Bull Cycle.
As you can see on this cross chart analysis on the 1W time-frame, the market has been on a multi-year uptrend with clear Phases, ever since the March 2009 bottom of the 2008 U.S. Housing Crisis. At the same time, the DXY (blue trend-line) initiated its own Channel Up.
Every time the DXY bottomed, the S&P500 transitioned from the more aggressive, recovery phase (blue Arc pattern) of the Bear Cycle to a more structured (green) Channel Up. As long as the DXY remains below its (dashed) Lower Highs trend-line, the uptrend of the Channel Up is being extended. Once broken, the stock market starts to form a top, which is natural as a strong/ expensive dollar is far from ideal for buying risky assets like stocks.
In any case, it appears that the DXY bottomed in late September 2024 and rebounded aggressively. This is rebound is the exact behavior it has when the previous two (green) Channel Up patterns started. As a result, we believe that the S&P500 has ahead of it around 4 years of growth within this Channel Up, whose pull-backs/ corrections will be the cyclical buy opportunities.
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Wifi Back up! Morning Updates Back Rolling!Last week centered entirely around one key level: the 6060 magnet, which set up every trade of last week and delivered again Sunday evening. As posted in full plan here yesterday, 6060 needed to reclaim to trigger a long, and we’ve already seen +10 points off it.
As of now: 6075 is next, reaction there, followed by 6088 and 6098 if buyers can push through. Supports are 6056-61. If those fail, expect a dip to 6035-40.
Weekly Forex Forecast: Buy The S&P & NASDAQ. Wait On The DOW!This forecast is for the week of DEC 16 - 20th.
The SP500 & NAS100 are bullish and buys are the order for the week. The DOW Jones is weeker, sliding down as the USD climbs. Be careful here, as the DOW tends to travel it's own path at times.
FOMC is Wednesday. Stay vigilant and disciplined this week!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
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Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
S&P500 Measured Move - ES Target 2024 Reached?That's a ...ummmhh..surprise at least.
And it's crazy.
I never thought this could happen.
But we better shall believe, that ECH - Everything Can Happen!
So, is the target reached for 2024?
Nobody knows, right?
But, I start to further close positions and take my profits in these Index and the correlating Markets.
Don't let Greed eat your Brain §8-)
As for my Christmas Lotto Ticket this year, I take a small Short Position now...LEAPs, Bear-Spread, dunno yet, but it's a Shortie that I can let sit for a couple Months.
Talk soon...
Es/SPX Morning Update Dec10thThis week will revolve around one key magnet: 6063 area (megaphone support), and ES has respected it so far. After selling there, bouncing, and now spending 20 hours consolidating, it’s backtesting the December 3rd breakout level.
As of now: 6063 remains support. Buyers holding above keeps 6079 and 6088-93 targets in play. If 6063 fails, expect a dip to 6050-6048.
TIP:
If you need to set up your charts exactly like mine, including all the levels and Fib Channels, here’s how starting from the home page:
**1. Go to TradingView and use the search bar.**
**2. Switch to the “People” tab and type in ESMORG.**
**3. Click on one of my updates.**
**4. Scroll to the bottom-right corner outside of the chart and look for three dots (…).**
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This will instantly apply my chart setup to your own TradingView account so all your levels can be precise.
S&P500 What will happen in 2025 and 2026 based on this pattern?The S&P500 index (SPX) has had an excellent run since the time (August 28, see chart below) we introduced the following piece of analysis on the similarities between the 2015 - 2017 fractal and today's 2022 - 2024:
As you see, the index rose by around +8.50% from 5625 to 6100 in only 3.5 months. We are still expecting a local top just below the 3.0 Fibonacci extension, with our Target in tact at 6500.
If it continues to replicate the past pattern into the 2018 fractal as well, then we may experience the last correction of the Bull Cycle around March 2025 towards the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) as it happened in February - March 2018 and then the final rally to a new All Time High (ATH) towards the end of the year (October - December 2025).
What this pattern shows, and what we've presented to you as a possible scenario on previous analyses, is for a new Bear Cycle to begin in 2026, four years after the Inflation Crisis of 2022, that will once more test the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the market's long-term Support.
As a side-note to investors, it is important to understand that corrections are cyclical and crises systemic. Long-term, multi-year patterns like this, help us understand with a certain degree of efficiency, when to enter and when to exit. Timing is at times (especially on such long-term horizons), more important than pricing.
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S&P500: Crossed under the 4H MA50. Bearish.S&P500 is headed towards a neutral 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.952, MACD = 52.430, ADX = 39.810) as today the price hit the 4H MA50 after more than 2 weeks. Every time the index crossed under the 4H MA50 since October 21st, it declined more to the 4H MA200. The long term pattern remains a Channel Up but short term the strenght behind the 4H RSI drop favors going short. Target a potential contact point with the 4H MA200 (TP = 5,960).
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Last Leg XAUOverall uptrend still needs a leg to complete its wave.
Considering higher lows of around -10%, the recent drop is the 4th point in our Elliot Wave analysis.
Last leg is to form the head and shoulders, synonym of long term tops.
I think the focus will be towards currencies, with countries focusing on Trumponomics, strengthening currencies for the dollar against tariffs. PBOC just reached an ATH in their gold hoarding.
Dollar itself might feel some headwind, because of the recent rise in DXY, a cool down soon is expected with my lower yields analysis. This would go well with foreign currencies reaching up while some headwind causes the USD to lag.
Let's see
ES/SPX morning update December 9Last friday, buyers reclaiming 6088 triggered a nice long. Since then, ES has been basinh, with 6088 now acting as support. We’re forming a 3-day “megaphone” pattern now.
As of now: 6088 (already tested) and 6081 are supports. Buyers holding above keeps 6109 and 6117+ targets in play. If 6081 fails, sell triggers could take us down to 6068.
S&P 500 - Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable?Is the Market Getting Too Comfortable?
Section 1: Signs of Complacency
Our Volatility Valuation Index (VVI) has dipped to the lower end of its range—an area that
often signals complacency.
Historically, this level tends to align with market tops, so it’s worth paying close attention.
Could this be a warning sign for the S&P 500?
Section 2: About the VVI
The VVI measures extremes in volatility, helping to identify potential market turning points.
It’s trend-agnostic, meaning high volatility can signal both tops and bottoms.
For equities, high readings typically align with bottoms, while low readings often flag tops.
That said, it works best when paired with other indicators like trend and momentum.
Section 3: What’s Next?
Tomorrow, we’ll dive into momentum signals on the S&P 500 to see what’s really happening under the hood. Stay tuned!
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Es Morning Update Dec 5thIn yesterday’s plan, I gave 3 key targets: 6074, 6082, and 6102. We hit 6102.25 as the high of the day. At this stage, there’s nothing to do but hold runners until a dip presents itself.
As of now: 6088 (weak) acts as support. Holding above keeps 6104, 6116-18, and 6130+ in play. If 6088 fails, expect a dip to 6080, with a 6066 backtest next.
S&P500: No corrections possibly for the whole 2025.S&P500 is on excellent bullish levels on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.149, MACD = 44.390, ADX = 33.789) as it is extending the strong rise since the U.S. elections. Going back even more, this uptrend has been nothing but sustainable ever since the August 5th bottom that almost hit the 1W MA50. In fact that MA level is intact since October 2023. The index has been following a similar path with the December 2018 - December 2021 Bull Cycle that topped after a +105% rise. You can see that following the COVID correction recovery after leg (6), the index crossed over the 1W MA50 and never broke it up until after the January 2022 High in 574 days.
Consequently, we expect a continuation of the current uptrend for as long as the 1W MA50 stays intact. We are targeting a +105% rise yet again (TP = 7,150) near the end of 2025.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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ES Morning Update Dec 3rdYesterday, 6063 remained the focus as ES has been glued to this level for two days, taking it very literally while flagging again. Nothing to do but let runners work.
As of now: 6078, 6092, and 6100 are the next targets. Supports on a dip are 6045 and 6035. Bulls remain in control as long as we stay above 6035.