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WMT 1Q Earning Target 2021WMT flopped its fourth quarter earnings in 2020 announcing -.74 cents a share. I expect a report with a lot more strength with integration of E-commerce into it online store models as well as less fear surrounding COVID-19 creating boost in sales. With only 1% of shares floating short, The slow grind up, which has been evident since the middle of March, is likely to continue without any strong resistance. Being the largest retailer in 2019 boasting 523 B in sales (NRF.com) doubling AMZN sales, this stock is a solid frontrunner as we move into a post pandemic economy. The NFP report on April 2nd of 916k (almost double the previous month report) compared to the 652k estimate is also encouraging as this could lead to more consumer spending. Still to come this month are MOM retail sale reports on the 15th and 16th which will could potentially back this thesis. Furthermore, with the market creating new highs quickly, there could be a tinge of uncertainty or heightened volatility as the rally hasn't really had much catalyst other than jobs, but with WMT's Beta of .47 (Zachs) this stock is relatively safe. With a debt to equity ratio at a 2 year low as well, this stock is definitely a strong buy in my opinion and I have set my post earnings target for 160 with this stock. This would be an all time high and about a 2% increase from current highs which is definitely within reason all things considered.
NYSE:WMTLong
by crawfordpaul
Stocks All Time Highs!!Stocks broke out to all time highs! We sensed they were poised for this, and there were two options to trade: anticipate the breakout or wait for a dip to lower levels first. Those who were patient were rewarded with a slight dip to buy, and those who yolo'd had to hold underwater a bit. We are currently seeing resistance at this new high, and a red triangle on the Kovach Reversals Indicator marks some trouble at 4032. The Kovach OBV is strong, but rounding off suggesting we may range at these new levels.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Breakout near for stocks??Stocks have regained highs. The S&P has just barely inched above highs at 3987, but is still having trouble with 4009. We are seeing some weakness at highs and there are two possibilities. First, we could see a retracement and continuation of that consolidation of volatility preceding the breakout. We could see a wedge or flag form. If so 3928 will be a good level of support. However, we could be gearing up for a breakout from current levels. So if you are a breakout trader pay attention to the momentum at open. We will need clear, definitive buying momentum in order to sustain a breakout. If we see ambivalence then a retracement is highly likely so watch lower levels for support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
What will it take for Stocks to Break Out??Stocks have retraced a bit from relative highs. The Kovach OBV is strong but has leveled off suggesting that we could range a bit at current levels. It is highly likely that the S&P will form some sort of consolidation pattern, either a wedge, flag or sideways continuation before the breakout. The retracement was paltry with respect to our expectations. The level 3909 seems reasonable if we dip further. If not, there is 3937. Look to the open for signs of momentum, and watch 3987 for resistance. if we see a lot of buying at this level then we can expect a breakout.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Stocks Reject Highs!!The S&P has continued to climb, and we have met relative highs again near 3987. However we are currently facing resistance here. We saw a swift rejection from these levels and have just breached the vacuum zone after breaking 3963. We will see support again at 3937 and 3928. It will take some momentum to break through these relative highs which will provide significant resistance after this most recent rejection. It is more likely that we will see some ranging behavior over the next few days bounded from below by 3867. We should see a consolidation of volatility which will precede a breakout.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
RUSSELL 2K for a move to 2k?Small caps have underperformed of late and price action in the Russell is testament to that. We've seen three bearish outside days this year, and granted the sample size isn't huge - a function of viewing this on the daily - but in the prior two episodes, we saw the index fall around 9.5% on average in 7 trading sessions. With bond yields creeping higher, amid ISM manufacturing and NFPs due this week, will small caps continue to see outflows? If we see follow-through and price through yesterdays low then 2k could well be on the cards
TVC:RUTShort
by chris.weston
Stocks Get a Much Needed LiftStocks caught a lift at market open. We've reached 3978 before facing a bit of a retracement. The Kovach OBV is strong which could suggest momentum is back. It's about time the malaise lifted for the S&P. We still need to break relative highs at 3987 to be considered properly bullish. We will definitely face resistance here. Then the next target is 4009. It is looking a bit overextended at the moment, so a pullback may be anticipated before we can break out. If this is the case, we could see levels as low as 3909.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Best Stock Trading Ideas!!Stocks took a significant hit yesterday. We stressed that they would find support around the 0.500 Fibonacci level and that was exactly where they found support. Subsequently a rally took us back to the 0.786 Fibonaci level at 3933, also a level we highlighted yesterday. The S&P appears to be forming another pseudo-megaphone pattern, 'pseudo' because we are not seeing higher highs, but we are seeing volatility increase, so the 'spirit' is there. The Kovach OBV is flat but at highs. This could be a sign that we are coiling up for a bull breakout. It also could mean we've peaked and are ready for further retracement. If we are ready for a breakout, watch 3963, otherwise we could retrace back to the 0.500 Fibonacci level at 3860, or even past this, extending the megaphone pattern.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
1
Stocks Continue to RangeStocks retraced back to the support 0.618 Fibonacci support level at 3890. They are continuing the rather narrow range between this level and 3963. The Kovach OBV was strong but has flattened. It really could go either way at this point. Another retracement could take us to the 0.500 Fibonacci level at 3860. A rally would have to break 3933, before we could consider highs at 3987 again. The longer we range, the more probable a breakout is. We should see some conviction either today or tomorrow.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Positive risk tone sees JPY and CHF lead to the downsideHeading into today’s European trading session, the risk tone is leaning risk on with Asia-Pacific indices mostly positive, measures of volatility subdued and safe havens pressured. In the FX complex, the positive risk tone sees JPY sit at the bottom of the F majors, followed closely by CHF with USDJPY set to test the 109.00 handle to the upside, while NZDJPY reclaimed the 76.00 handle. Indeed, the antipodeans are currently leading the FX majors to the upside; although it’s AUD sitting in pole position, but NZD a close second. All in all, however, it’s worth noting that most currency pairs have remained contained by recent ranges, with no significant developments or catalysts observed throughout the Asia-Pacific session. Looking to the sessions ahead, expect central banks to once again be a key theme for the day. The SNB will announce their latest policy decision early in the European session, while central bank speakers from numerous central banks are scheduled to speak throughout the day.
by thunderpips
3
S&P500 at 4,100 as a 'base case' this year - RBCRBC discussed its S&P500 expectations for 2021 in a recent note to clients. RBC noted: Our 2021 S&P 500 target of 4.100 is our base case. It is roughly the median of 15 upside scenarios that we examined. If our call proves too conservative, our analysis suggests that the S&P 500 could trade as high as 4,600 for a +20% full year gain - the most bullish scenarios we examined came close to this level. Among the eight downside scenarios we examined, which articulate our bear case for full year or interim downside if momentum breaks lower, several point to a pullback to the 3600 / 3700 area (mid single digit drop in percentage terms depending on the starting point used) or to -3,200 (mid to high teens dip in percentage terms depending on starting point).
OANDA:SPX500USD
by thunderpips
12
S&P Ranging, Looking to BreakoutStocks retraced and are correcting sideways. We had a fairly risk-off/neutral day yesterday. The level 3890, or the 0.618 Fibonacci level is definitely providing some support right now and seems to be a lower bound for now. The Kovach OBV is trending up but has flatlined slightly. It could go either way from here. Further retracement could easily take us to the 50% Fibonacci level if 3890 does not hold. A breakout could take us to relative highs at 3987. We are maintaining a pretty narrow range at this point suggesting that stocks are ready for a breakout either way.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Slump Amid Virus WoesStocks are struggling, and it appears virus woes may be putting a damper on them. The S&P made a run for 3963, but fell just short of this and retraced back down to 3933 or so, which is a Fibonacci and technical level. We should see support here, but if not, 3890 would definitely provide support. We will find further support at 3860 or so. The Kovach OBV is rounding off suggesting that we may be in for more bearish momentum, or at least some sideways trading before momentum comes through to attempt highs at 3987.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
Stocks Pull Back on Geopolitcal TensionsStocks retraced in the Asia-Pacific session due to geopolitical tensions in Myanmar and Turkey, to the 0.618 Fibonacci level, anchored at the relative high at 3987, and the low of our head and shoulders from which we saw the breakout at 3733. We are getting good support from this level but further fallout could take us to 3860, which would be a 0.500 Fib retracement. The Kovach OBV is receding a bit, but not to extremes. Thus it is likely we will find support at one of these Fib levels. We will face resistance from 3933 first, then highs at 3987.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy