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Stocks Attempt a RallyStocks appear to have found support for now at 4272. This seems to be a lower bound for now. We do appear to be witnessing a meager attempt at a rally. The S&P has tested 4380, but retraced a bit to support at 4327. We may attempt to find support here as we establish value. The Kovach OBV is still solidly bearish, and until we can see some momentum come through, we can expect to remain at these lower levels. We have a cluster of levels in the 4300 handle above. If we manage to break through these, 4408 is the first major level in the 4400 handle, and this will be a significant barrier to break.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
When Will Stocks Recover?? 😱Stocks appeared to be seeking value around 4389, but seem to have taken a turn for the worse. We found support at 4350, but risk off sentiment pervaded the markets and the S&P smashed through several support levels down to 4272, where it is currently finding support. The Kovach OBV is still massively bearish, suggesting we are getting into oversold territory, and due for a bounce. The best case scenario for bulls would be a V-shaped recovery, that could take us back to the 4300 handle or even 4400. From below, we should have support at 4225.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Find SupportStocks have found support at 4350. The S&P has drifted up, and inched above 4389, but does not seem to have enough momentum in the tank to test the 4400's yet. If we see a lift at open, 4408 will be our next immediate target. After that, there is a cluster of levels in the low 4400's, that will next provide resistance. The Kovach OBV is bearish, but has started to pick up. If the sell off continues, we will find support again at 4350, but if this breaks, 4327 and 4306 are the next levels down.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Meltdown!! Will They Find Support??Stocks have finally found support at 4350, after a massive selloff yesterday. We cut through several major levels, and have solidly breached the 4300 handle. Currently, we are seeing a bit of a lift from 4350, reaching a resistance level at 4388. There is a red triangle on the KRI, suggesting we may see a rejection of this level. If so, we could retrace back to 4350 and then some. If we see momentum come through, then there is a vacuum zone above to 408. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, however.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
Stocks Plummet!! 📉😨Stocks have sold off pretty hard, breaking down from a head and shoulders type pattern with the head at 4487. We anticipated in these reports that it would be difficult for stocks to break higher and that the risk was to the down side. We are currently attempting to find support at 4408, a level we have discussed in these reports many times and called out yesterday as a level of support. It looks like we are getting ready to break through this level as we write this. This is the last level of support in the 4400 handle, with 4389 and 4380 as the first levels to provide support beneath it. There is a cluster of levels above which will take some momentum to break through, including 4421, 4431, an 4440.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
S&P Likely Road ForwardNothing to write, the price was wedging and broke lower, no surprise. Hopefully it corrects more now and we can kill some of the excesses in price and washout the speculation now and not later from higher cliffs. Likely Mid to high 4200's, a bit less likely is close to 4000 and even less likely but still possible and my favorite scenario is 3700 - 3900. Before ultimately bottoming to start the next extended cycle higher into 5000's+ over the next 3 - 5 years. Likely to end year close to 4500 or 4600. Look for a slow and steady decrease in the standard deviation day to day in prices. High vol days should be behind us for a while beginning fairly soon or possibly this may already be under way.
SP:SPX
by SeanBronato
Stocks Struggle at HighsStocks have made a run for highs, but have met resistance at 4487. We are currently finding support at 4463, as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV has been tapering up, confirming the bull trend, however this momentum still seems paltry with respect to the selloff we saw last week from Evergrande. If we are able to brak 4487, then 4504 and 4521 are the next levels to target on the upside. It seems likely that we may see a retracement, and we should continue to find more support at 4440. There is a cluster of levels around this vicinity, but if these do not hold, 4408 should provide further support.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Volatility Near Lows for StocksAfter plummeting in the second worst day ever (by some sources), the S&P 500 is attempting to stabilize. We appear to have bottomed out at 4306, and attempted a 100 point swing to 4408. We are seeing a great deal of volatility in between as stocks jostle to establish value. Currently, we are meeting some resistance at the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level which does seem to align with some technical levels on the chart. Thus, we can expect steep resistance here. Watch the open, because it will take significant momentum to break through these. The Kovach OBV is still bearish despite the rally from yesterday, likely filtering out the 'noise' in the volatility. We should expect support from 4348, but if that does not hold, 4306 seems to be the min lower bound for now.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
1
ChinaYesterday saw some significant moves in several key macro factors. The charts below detail the sharp escalation in China stress (at the national, rather than real estate sector specific level) & the impact that had on broader risk appetite in markets. The Evergrande story has been in motion for months. Up until yesterday, contagion had been restricted to immediate peers – Chinese real estate / financial names, a few Australian miners. What changed yesterday was the move in Chinese Credit Default Swaps (CDS). Sovereign CDS liquidity is poor but the signal is unmistakeable – markets moved this from an idiosyncratic story to one with potentially far broader ramifications. For the first time in a while the risk off move had a material impact on the credit markets – "European financial" & "high yield" bonds especially. Again, our models suggest this is very much a statistical abnormality. The spike in VIX was a significant move on Qi models. VXEEM, VDAX (implied volatility measures for emerging markets and the DAX respectively) & the gold/silver ratio experienced similar moves. What next? China is the epicentre of current market moves & your view on how the Evergrande story unfolds is critical. China bears will see these factor moves as a genuine re-pricing. If so, Qi can high-light those markets that are lagging versus the new environment. In times of stress it is more important than ever to quantify relationships between asset price & the macro environment. LOOK UP™
TVC:VIX
by UnknownUnicorn25542523
V-Shaped Recovery for Stocks??After their meltdown yesterday (second worst in history by some sources), stocks have pared back losses, retracing just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the entire move. Indeed, we appear to be seeing the typical 'V-shaped recovery'. We will see if further developments in the Evergrande saga can sustain current levels or if we will have another selloff. It looks like 4408 is providing resistance, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI indicator. The Kovach OBV is rounding upwards, but not quite proportional to the recovery rally so we could see further resistance here. Watch for conviction at open to determine if we will continue to retrace this selloff, or if selling will continue. We could also establish value at current levels as the markets digest more news.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Plummet 📉😨Stocks have plummeted from the news that Evergrande, one of China's largest real estate developers, may file bankruptcy. This would effectively make them "China's Lehman Brothers". Risk sentiment is extremely risk-off right now. Stock indexes world wide have plummeted. The S&P has sliced through the 4400 handle with ease. We should have support from 4364 and 4350. If we catch support at these levels, we could retrace back to 4408, which would be roughly a 50% retracement of the selloff.
FX:SPX500Short
by quantguy
1
$VRTX HTF ACB LongWeekly Swing Watchlist Couple great looking opportunities this week, otherwise equities look pretty quite with the broad sell offs we have seen. I am already at full risk after entering two trades last week so I will be sitting on my hands for now. #1 Main Watch $VRTX HTF ACB L Monthly - 0.50 Fib/Decel/50 ema Weekly   - Support/MACD/Double bottom Daily      - Support/MACD/Double bottom/Descending triangle/Decel/Wave 5 completion LTF        - Break out of descending triangle/MACD/Double bottom Entry      - Waiting for 1HR close above 50 ema RR          - 10 (Previous M/W highs) Management - Long term Additionally on Watch: Main: $PENN Daily IBO L Other: 6 stocks on this weeks development needed list 23 stocks on monthly watchlist (mostly in Tech & Health Care sectors) Live Trades: $OEG - Full Risk $AMC - 0.5% Profit locked in $MASS - Full Risk $VUZI - Full Risk $Z - Full Risk
NASDAQ:VRTXLong
by JSiminoski
Volatility in StocksVolatility has permeated stocks, but it does appear that 4440 is a bottom for now. We have attempted a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the selloff from highs, falling just short at resistance at 4487. We appear to be attempting to establish value in this broad range, and are currently testing support at 4464. The Kovach OBV is somewhat oscillatory, but appears to have bottomed out for now. The 50% Fibonacci level at 4492 will provide resistance, but after that, the next major level is 4505.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
Stocks Get a LiftStocks have caught a bit of a lift from lower levels. We have reached as low as 4440, before catching a bit of a lift that brought us back almost to a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire bear move. We finally met resistance at 4487. The Kovach OBV has picked up notably, but has since slumped over. Be careful about this move, it could just be a relief rally into an overall bear trend. After all, September is a notoriously slow month and we still have some news events that could be of concern. If we continue to see momentum, 4505 would be a great target, as it is the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the first major level of the 4500 handle.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
SONY breaking out for the chargeBeen consolidating for a while but finally broke the bearish structure recently and is starting to head north towards to key areas of resistance. Already got a position from the consolidation but looking to possibly add to the position if we retest that upper band of the previous consolidation. Ideally not a fan of buying into resistance but it seems to have some momentum from below so, could have some legs and my original position is already well in profit.
NYSE:SONYLong
by DeNomics
1
Stocks Slump Even After CPIStocks have opened the week by continuing a steady decline. To an extent, this is to be expected, because September is typically a slow month in the stock market. However, the CPI miss yesterday should suggest that we are to see the Fed walk back statements about tapering, which should be good for our portfolios. Due to this, we expected more of a risk on day yesterday. But a series of downgrades sent us to lower prices. We are finding support at 4440, and there is a cluster of levels below, down to 4421. If we do catch a lift, there is a vacuum zone to 4487. The Kovach OBV is quite bearish, but may have bottomed out, suggesting that we might see some life in stocks this morning at open.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Malaise Setting In for Stocks??Stocks are finding support at 4462, after some volatility. It does look like we are stabilizing about this level for the moment, after making a run for support at 4440. September is usually a month of malaise for stocks, but we will see if we can get one more burst of risk on in beforehand. If so, we could test 4487 or 4504. The Kovach OBV is pretty bearish at this point, which may be a sign that we are oversold and due for a relief rally, even if it is just a brief respite. We still have a way to go before all time highs, and must cross 4521 and 4545 first.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy
Momentum Due for Stocks?? 📈Stocks tumbled Friday, taking us to lower levels of support. We have identified these in the last report and we have tested these levels to the tick. In particular, we saw support at 4487, before testing 4462 which appears to be holding for now, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. We are testing 4487 from below again, but will need momentum to pierce through it. We are anticipating another wave of risk on to come through stocks this week, so watch for the S&P to gain some traction and test higher levels including 4487, 4505 and 4521. We have a way to go before considering new all time highs, but 4564 is the next target after this.
FX:SPX500Long
by quantguy