USOIL / TRADING INTO DESCENDING CHANNEL - 4HUSOIL / 4H TIME FRAME
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , prices is under downward pressure , until trading below turning level at 74.76
Downward Condition: With the price holding steady at the current turning level at 74.76 , it is likely to decline towards the support level of 72.81. If it stabilizes below this level, it could then reach the next target level of 70.92
Upward Condition : for an upward , a potential is expected if the price breaks the turning level at 74.76 , leading to a rise toward the resistance level (1) at 76.15 . For a sustained increase, the price must breaking the resistance level (1) to reach the next resistance at 78.55
TARGET UPWARD ZONE :
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : 76.15 .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : 78.55 .
TARGET DOWNWARD ZONE :
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : 72.81 .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : 70.92 .
TURNING LEVEL : 74.76 .
Energy Commodities
USOIL Is Going Up! Buy!
Here is our detailed technical review for USOIL.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The price is testing a key support 73.74.
Current market trend & oversold RSI makes me think that buyers will push the price. I will anticipate a bullish movement at least to 79.53 level.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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WTI Oil H1 | Rising into pullback resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 73.66 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 74.55 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 71.52 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bearish reversal?USO/USD is rising towards the resistance level which is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 74.78
Why we like it:
There is a an overlap resistance level which is slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 76.18
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 72.36
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Natural Gas: are bulls capitulating? The bulls have made 9 attempts at breaking out. All attempts have failed which has led us to this sharp decline.
Nat gas is holding the 20 day MA but it does look somewhat vulnerable to going lower.
The death cross is getting closer and closer as we approach the 50 MA & 200 MA downtrending intersection.
Our members stopped out of the second half of UNG in profits
I am now hoping and waiting for a sub $2 pierce retest. we shall see if we get it.
What does OIL (BRENT PETROL) mean for the world economy?#BRENT Oil (Petrol) 1W chart;
What does oil mean for the world economy?
Oil is critical to the world economy and is considered the basic energy source of modern industrial societies.
And then there are the quarterbacks. Market makers, a term we hear a lot in the crypto space. These and similar important charts cannot be moved by ordinary people. They cannot afford it. Only the most important countries in the world can do it.
So what usually happens when these charts come to trend breaks?
While situations such as war, geopolitical tensions, chaos, finding a vaccine for an existing virus move the chart upwards,
Situations such as viruses, recessions, economic depressions also move the chart downwards.
Significant chart movements are only possible with these and similar news. Conscious or unconscious. If you think there is anything unconscious in the world, I can't say anything about it.
The trend line in the middle is important.
I have indicated the details of the important breaks and critical intersections on the chart.
But there is one place I would like to draw your attention.
Russia-Ukraine war;
The chart is rising sharply with pre-decline gapped openings and momentum candles.
What happens in the world in such a situation?
Energy, industrial production costs, important basic services such as electricity, heating, transportation, raw material prices would increase.
Global economic slowdowns.
Geopolitical tensions increase.
In short, inflation would be fueled.
Just like the economic crisis that would be caused by a sharp fall in the oil prices of the countries that depend on oil for their economies.
Then energy companies cannot make a profit. Labor prices would fall, companies would go bankrupt, unemployment would rise.
In short...
Inflation was deliberately and willfully fueled. Because it was time to start raising interest rates.
The world was not ready for that yet.
With the war, the chart went up 40% in 2 weeks.
I am not talking about any coin in crypto, I am talking about the oil chart increasing 40% in such a short time.
You all know the scenario afterwards.
The top of the chart is where the red needle is. March 2022.
The Fed has officially started the cycle of rate hikes with 25 basis points.
USOIL BEST PLACE TO BUY FROM|LONG
Hello, Friends!
It makes sense for us to go long on USOIL right now from the support line below with the target of 79.20 because of the confluence of the two strong factors which are the general uptrend on the previous 1W candle and the oversold situation on the lower TF determined by it’s proximity to the lower BB band.
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Identifying Profit Points and Key Short Opportunities for NGNatural Gas has exhibited a bearish trend beginning on June 12, 2024, with prices opening at $3.200 per contract. Throughout July, the market saw significant profit-taking activities, with trading prices oscillating between $2.120 and $2.000 per contract. This price range was perceived as a strategic buying opportunity, particularly at the L3 pivot point level during August 2024.
Subsequently, prices encountered resistance at the R3 level, stabilizing at $2.320 for an extended period of ten days. This stagnation is likely attributed to institutional traders initiating short positions at this critical juncture, influencing the price dynamics.
Further analysis of the quarterly chart reveals a notable rejection at the L4 level; however, it is crucial to note that prices remain above this threshold. Should prices decline below the pivotal level of $2.250 per contract, a bearish stance is advisable, with potential targets set at the monthly L4 of $1.840 and the quarterly L5 of $1.820.
This analysis underscores the importance of vigilant monitoring of key resistance and support levels in the Natural Gas market to capitalize on potential trading opportunities.
Sugar heading for multi-year lowsIs easy to see that the $20 zone is key for sugar, the price broke below it in April and it has not been able to come back above
The price has dropped more than 36% since it peaked in November of 2023 and this week just made a new 52-week low
The next key level is at $17.50, the daily chart already gave a sell or short signal
A follow through below this level could lead to a good gain in the short side
Also, could lower sugar prices lead to higher oil prices?
Remember that oil prices tends to be inversely correlated with the price of sugar, primarily due to its impact on ethanol production and the competing use of sugarcane for fuel versus food.
WTI Oil H1 | Rising into overlap resistanceWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 74.24 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 75.00 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 72.18 which is a pullback support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
WTI OIL This is why it's going to $95.00 if the 1M MA50 helps.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been practically neutral within a Triangle pattern since September 2023, trading under the Resistance pressure of the Lower Highs but at the same time supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. The latter has been placed just below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the key to Oil's price action in the coming months.
As you can see, even when the price breaks below it, Oil manages to close the 1M candle (month) above the 1M MA50. In fact the last time it closed a month below it was more than 3.5 years ago (January 2021)!
As a result, if we manage to close August above it again, we expect a strong rebound for Oil. In fact, a similar Triangle pattern was spotted back in 2011 - 2013. As you can see, after several breakings but also closings above the 1M MA50, it eventually initiated a rally that hit the Resistance 2 level.
The 1M RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar as well, so we find no reason why Oil won't stage a similar rally as long as the 1M MA50 keeps holding. Our long-term Target is $95.00.
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Is USOIL Ready to Surge to $77?I'm analyzing the weekly chart of USOIL and spotting a potential reversal. If it manages to hold above this level, we could witness a strong bullish momentum, pushing oil towards the $77 level. I’ve kept the chart simple for easy analysis of the current situation. If you like the idea, give it a boost!
Note: These analyses are based on technical analysis only.
WTI Oil H1 | Potential bearish breakoutWTI oil (USOIL) is falling towards a potential breakout level and could drop lower from here.
Sell entry is at 72.81 which is a potential breakout level.
Stop loss is at 73.50 which is a level that sits above an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 71.65 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd, previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
USOIL 73.02 - 1.01 % WEEKLY MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS
Hope everyone is doing great
📌 A look at USOIL from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS
USOIL DAILY TF
* Last week saw a bearish close with the weekly FVG holding & beautifully rejecting.
* The sentiment is still strongly bearish for OIL from HIGHER TF perspective.
* The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in a range on a bearish trend towards that ERL.
USOIL DAILY TF
* The picture is clearer with strong bearish moves from the daily.
* some volume imbalance left behind.
* possibly to be filled before we take that ERL.
USOIL 4H
As we head lower we see some bullish potential for some retracement.
* With the week to opening Bearish (PO3) could see this move with tomorrows crude inventories .
* sentiment the same on the hourly tf.
* This rally with the bulls & strong momentum to the down side could see some reversal.
looking for some signs of this on todays price action.
* LETS SEE HOW THE MARKET DISHES
🤷♂️😉🐻🐮
HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK.
SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS.
IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE
SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT.
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* Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT.
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LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
Crude oil approaches bullish reversal zoneWeak Chinese demand and hopes for a Middle East peace deal on the downside, OPEC+ production cuts and geopolitical tensions on the topside. It’s amazing how the same narratives get rolled out depending on where the WTI crude price sits within its 2024 range, often reaching their crescendo just before the price turns. I wonder whether we’re about to see the same outcome again.
WTI has fallen heavily over the past week, apparently on hopes for a peace deal in Gaza. That may be reason, and I hope it happens from a humanitarian perspective, but I’ve been around long enough to know narratives are often designed to fit with the prevailing price action. All I know is that the last two occasions WTI has dipped to $72.50 per barrel it’s coincided with a near-term bottom. Sitting at $73.11, the price is not far away again.
I would be reluctant to buy preemptively, but should the price bounce from $72.50, it would make for a decent long setup, allowing for a stop to be placed beneath the February low of $71.44 for protection. Minor levels at $74.60 and $76.94 are two potential targets, $80.30 another considering how much work the price did either side earlier in the year.
DS
USOIL.. at most expensive area? What's next??#USOIL.. well market again near to his most expensive area around 72
As you can see a massive holding of this area is history and now again market at this level.
Guys it will be market most expensive breakage if breaks and holding means again upside momentum can be possible .
But cut n reverse keep in hand.
Good luck
Trade wisely
Oil/Gold vs SPX/CPIUCSLThe chart of OIL/GOLD shows that the price of oil in terms of gold has been fluctuating within a channel since the US broke the last bretton woods agreement in the 70's. Since then we can see periods in which oil is expensive and periods in which oil is cheap in terms of gold, right now it's the cheapest it has been (excluding pandemic madness in 2020) and if you believe in head and shoulders you can see a second shoulder forming; so in the following years we could see a bounce and it may be agressive, if that's the case stocks will suffer in real terms. Could something have changed and the price will stay low for many more years, maybe, but I think it's something we have too keep in mind.
Oil Prices Slip as Gaza Talks and China Worries WeighOil prices edged lower at the start of the week, as traders weighed the potential impact of ongoing Middle East tensions and softening demand from China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped towards $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $76.
The recent decline follows a turbulent week for oil markets, marked by significant volatility. Prices had shed nearly 2% on Friday as investors grappled with concerns over China's economic recovery and the potential implications for global oil demand. The world's second-largest economy has shown signs of weakness, with data indicating a slowdown in industrial activity and consumer spending. This has raised doubts about China's ability to drive oil consumption growth.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to cast a shadow over the energy market. While diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have intensified, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for disruptions to oil supplies in the region cannot be ruled out. The geopolitical risk premium, which has supported oil prices in recent months, could diminish if a ceasefire is achieved.
Analysts caution that the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as traders navigate a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could underpin prices. On the other hand, weakening global economic growth and efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources could exert downward pressure.
Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from China and other major economies. Any escalation of the conflict or further signs of weakness in the Chinese economy could lead to renewed volatility in the oil market.
Ultimately, the price of oil will depend on the balance between supply and demand. While the market has experienced periods of tightness in recent months, concerns about slowing demand growth may start to weigh on prices if they materialize.
2024-08-19 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Bear channel continued down and next target is probably 72 if 73.5 won’t hold. Pure weakness in this market.
quote from my weekly update:
bear case: Bears need a daily close below 74.5 to trade back down to 71/72.
comment: Look at that beauty of a channel. Holding like a true champ. Market is much weaker than expected and only going down. Bottom of the channel is where a pullback is expected and if bears are strong, they keep it below 74.5. Next targets for the bears are 73 and then 72. Anything above 75.5 would be a big surprise.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 72 - 75.5
bull case: Bulls are so weak that they currently can only correct sideways. They need to create a pullback at 73.4 or risk a breakout below the bear channel, where the selling would accelerate. A reasonable target for a pullback would be the breakout retest of last weeks low 74.52.
Invalidation is below 73.1.
bear case: Bears had a strong bear day again and a measured move would bring us to 71.5. If they manage to create a breakout below the bear channel, we could get there much faster than most expect. My drawn big bullish trend line from the triangle runs through 71.7, so close enough. Bears need to keep any pullback below 75, better would be below 74.5.
Invalidation is above 75.5.
short term: Pullback to at least 74.5 is expected but below 73.1 we print 72 or even 71 pretty fast.
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again. Update: If we break below 70.67, the triangle is dead and we need to find new support. Will update this again when it happens.
current swing trade: None
trade of the day: Mostly sideways during Globex and EU session. US session opened weak and when bulls could not get above 75.5 again, bears tried again and bulls just gave up. Had to be short since the bear bar breaking below 75 and the 1h 20ema.