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Elliotwaveanalysis

Elliott Wave Analysis with Volume Profiles and Open InterestMYROAnalysis. eliott wave: the price action conforms to elliot wave theory, suggesting a potential bullish move with the completion of wave 5. volume profile (January 38th - february 3rd) the initial volume profile indicates that the price has previosly visted the point of control (poc), and it appears to be retracing towwards the upper 70% line, which could serve as oyr TP3. Volume profile (february 2nd-february 19th): the subsequent volume profile suggest that the ptice is finding support around the 70% line, this support level has also acted as resistance in previous instances. Openinterest: there is a bullish and green candle observed in the open interest data, indicatng potential bullish sentiment.
Long
by ispatialresources
5
BITCOIN: Pullback before another rally?Hi Traders! The trend is bullish on the main time frames, but today we will only follow intraday chart (Log Scale). That said, from a technical perspective, CRYPTOCAP:BTC is forming a 12345 bullish impulse structure, and we are currently in wave 3. If our analysis is correct, Bitcoin could trigger a corrective structure (ABC or ABCDE Pattern) in short term before developing another rally. On 1H chart we showed the support area and the potential amplitude of wave 5. OUR LONG TERM ANALYSIS =======================
Long
by TheAnonymousBanker
6
Whoever Wins the 2024 Election May Have a Difficult PresidencyDISCLAIMER: THIS IS A VERY LONG READ . Monday is Presidents Day. In America, this is a day we honor 46 individuals who have held that office both past and present. Ask anyone who keeps up with current news and events, and they will agree, America is a politically divided nation. The vitriol, one political party has for the other, seems like it’s never been this bad; ( and ) the language used today seems more abusive. Nowadays, It’s common to be out and to see bumper stickers, t-shirts and roadside bill boards that use the most vulgar phrases to describe the opposition. America appears to have descended to a place in civilized society where it is perfectly acceptable to label someone with opposing political views, a traitor. History tells us, partisan polarization has always been a cultural feature of America. We forget the 1828 Presidential elections termed the phrase “ Mudslinging ”, and saw the collapse of The Federalist Party, which ushered in Jacksonian Democracy. That was the first election cycle where in campaign insults and salacious innuendo was personalized among the candidates. I’m sure American society in the early 19th century uttered a collective “ oh my! ”, just like we’re all uttering today. Back then slogans and platforms mention that election was “… for the very Soul of our Country ”. Sound familiar? I’ve traded energy futures for the past 30 years. Except for world war, I’ve seen it all. I was active in the markets on the day when crude oil futures went -$31 dollars (That’s negative $31 dollars). I’ve been an active trader during every geo-political disagreement, conflict, economic crisis (Greece, 2008 Great Financial Crisis), political assassinations, etc., of the last 30 years…and although I never thought possible, a global pandemic to properly bookend my career. So, when I see a bumper sticker that says “ High Gas Prices? Thanks Biden! ” I chuckle. The average citizen doesn’t understand that the US President has very little to do with the price of gas at the pump. Now before the hateful comments come, sure, the policies of any administration can affect prices over short periods of time and cause volatility, but the trends that govern energy prices over the intermediate and longer term, has more to do with supply and demand, and the economies of extraction and refining, than anything else a US President can do in the short term. Never accused of being lax, the more than capable energy lobby sees to that. “ Drill Baby Drill ” is mantra to insinuate that to bring prices down, we must drill more, and somehow a Presidential administration is dropping the "Lower Prices" ball. However, leases to acquire energy natural resources on Federal lands are plentiful, and most would be surprised, that a lot of active leases are actually dormant . Capitalism moderates this, Presidents ...very little. We already “Drill Baby Drill” and have done so for the past 20 years. We have the current infrastructure and capacity to extract and refine more oil and gas than any nation on earth. It’s largely the economics of extracting and refining is what dictates production, which in turn, dictates price. Currently, the price of natural gas is approaching historic all-time lows. Nonetheless, (and I do not want to interjet politics) but I have yet to see a bumper sticker that says "LOW GAS PRICES? THANKS BIDEN" . I suspect gas rigs will be coming OFF line in droves as the weeks and months progress, despite what the US President wants , unless the administration decides to increase exports to allied nations. However, even that would only nominally affect short term prices, because the companies extracting the gas have to have the adequate number of rigs online. It truly is a complicated balance as to what constitutes the prices we pay, and to a lesser extent, who is the President. So, as a seasoned trader I regard the election, and current political divisions as, important as a citizen , but as a trader, not so much . To me it’s back ground chatter in the overall larger cyclical conversation we should be having...but are not. However, this article is not about politics, or ideological differences in the US. It’s not about US policy, nor which party is worst for the… “ Soul of our Country ”. It’s about economic cycles, and how THOSE cycles could place the next US President is a very challenging position. I’ll start with visual on the main chart above. These men we honor on President’s Day have largely been along for the cyclical ride. Each of them presiding over different outcomes. Each of them being judged, rightly or wrongly , solely based on good or bad cyclical timing. Cycles are a normal occurrence in all economies. Regardless of the country, they reflect societies consumption and contraction and they are affected by first and foremost quality and duration of life. Societies with the highest quality of life will consume more. While in contrast, those that have low qualities of life will contract and consume less. Next is increased efficiencies through technology, advances in communication, medicine, and construction. Quality and duration of life are more so related to the political and governing structure of the country. When those are comparatively rigid with power residing at the top as compared to other countries, advances in communication and socialization, medicine, and construction lag and can have outsized affects on the business and economic cycles causing large variances and outsized swings. In America, we freak out about inflation as it has recently vacillated between 9% down to 3%...and rightfully so. Now imagine being a citizen of Turkey and having to endure 61% inflation in 2023 . However, the US, being a mature and stable government, these economic cycles are on a more digestible and palatable timeline and the ensuing variances between the extremes are manageable as compared to those of emerging economies, and fledgling governing authorities. Therefore, if the intermediate and shorter terms cycles that govern economic expansion and contraction, are to converge with the longer-term cycles that have more to do with society and are governed more so by political governance and quality of life, how does that play out in real terms? Does a construct exist for determining if a negative long and short cycle will converge? I practice a form of technical analysis called Elliott Wave. Before you think I’m going to tell you, the construct for predicting this cyclical phase is me, and my ability to be somehow be divinely ordained to make such a bold call based on my expertise in Elliott Wave… your wrong . No one can say with an accurate degree of certainty when or if this will ever come to pass. We have historical results on cycles that say such an event would be perfectly normal and on a cyclical time horizon, we're due for one. To me, is somewhat comparative to the geologists who forecast the Yellowstone caldera will erupt tomorrow, or in the next 10,000 years. In the same mindset, data sets suggest its totally reasonable to make the case that the period of the next US president (which is 4 to 8 years) could be such a period as detailed in the above chart. What I can say is Elliott Wave does provide a highly successful methodology based on rules and guidelines, that can offer some intriguing information that can make a more than reasonable case for a cyclical downturn, and forecast the magnitude of it… but not when . However, it's not my intention to educate you on Elliott Wave analysis. I do want to focus on one guideline in particular within this discipline. It's called the theory of alternation. Simply put, it states that if wave 2 (BLUE (II) ON ABOVE CHART) is shallow, or short in timeframe...then the wave 4 (BLUE (IV) ON THE ABOVE CHART) will be deep, and or long in duration, and thereby alternating. I have labeled the above chart taking alternation into account. However, my intention this morning is to call attention to the events that were present during wave (II) and if those events can tell us anything about wave (IV) as a cycle, the timing and magnitude, and more specifically, do the events alternate as well . Wave (II) consisted of the following events in chronological order. (1) Free Banking Era, (2) WW1, (3) Spanish Flu of 1918, which was moderated by sheltering in place and when those socialisation curbs were lifted, led to the expansion of the roaring 1920's which led to (4) 1929 stock market crash (5) Great depression (6) and culminated in The Glass Steagall act passing as a provision of The Banking Act of 1935 effectively ending the Free Banking Era and limiting what commercial and investment banks can do with respect to public money and taking risks. Today, we know that (1) Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, which ushered in a sort of new FREE banking era, which caused the financial crisis of 2008 because banks did exactly what that repealed legislation was designed to prevent (3) Society then endured another variant of the 1918 Spanish Flu in 2020 called COVID-19 which caused us to shelter in place, which affected the global supply chain and has led to a large economic expansion that most economist are baffled to this day by the length and degree in which it has endured. Making this current time period very reminiscent of the roaring 1920’s. It seems the comparative events are similar but the chronological occurrences seem to be alternating as well. Except one. NO STOCK MARKET CRASH. Is this just the last missing event in an alternation that has been decades in the making? I obviously can't say. What I can say, whoever wins the 2024 President Election may not have an easy go of it. Best to all, Chris
SP:SPX
by maikisch
4
We might be at middle of cycleBased on elliot wave theory we are at middle of 3rd wave. Which is most profitable wave. The news is positive /ETFs approved, halving is coming in 2 months everything is good right?/ fundamental analysts starts raise targets. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave 3 starts the news probably still bearish and most market players remain negative but by wave 3 midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave 4 Wave 4 is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave 4 typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave 3. Volume is well below than that of wave 3. This is good place to buy a pullback if you understand the potiental ahead for wave 5. Still, 4th waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend. Wave 5 Wave 5 is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave 5 than in wave 3 nad many momentum indicators start to show divergences, prices reach new highs but the indicators do not reach new peak. At the end of major bull run, bears may very well ridiculed, recall how forecast for a top in the market during 2007 and 2020 were all rejected. People gonna say "There is no way we are at already middle of cycle. "Halving bull run" is not started yet. ETFs approved big moneys are coming MIL:1M per BTC is possible" etc. Yup maybe youre right, bull run is just starting or maybe ure wrong. Yes, crypto market is crazy place, when it pumps it doesnt care about anything just prints big green candles and some alts make 100-1000x. Place with full of potiental and opportunity. But, you gotta stay woke. Dont listen big medias, dont let fake influencers manipulate you. Set your targets and goals. Dont be too greedy. Have a realistic look. WAGMI Love and Peace <3
Long
by Dankee
A last tiny leg down and then a massive rally in TESLA!The stock is spotted in a complex triple three correction(WXYXZ) since JUL.2023 and is now finally at the end stages of this lengthy correction. Only the last leg, which would be wave v of "WAVE C" of "WAVE Z" seems pending in the stock now. $170-180 is a major support region and the stock is expected to complete the last leg of the correction within this zone itself without sliding much further down. What would follow after "Z" is completed though, would be the next bull leg (labeled as wave III of 3) that could be projected moving towards $330 region.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by neeraj_2_sharma
7
Bitcoin Continues to Rally, close to topping, with a caveatBitcoin has developed a very clear upward trajectory that we have tracked all the way from $15,000. We are now in the target box for completion. The one caveat I have with my analysis is it is possible I was too conservative. The MACD indicator should be on negative divergence for completion and it is now showing we're on the verge of breaking out...again. Therefore, I will state, that in the micro patterns I am awaiting a wave iv and v to complete. In the process of this iv and v, if the daily MACD clearly breaks out above the wave 3 peak...that may bring an alternative count into the chart showing this high was in fact wave 3....AND NOT WAVE 5. Best to all, Chris
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by maikisch
15
Cardano #ADA: Chart Analysis on the Daily Chart 📊📈Taking a glance at Cardano BINANCE:ADAUSDT within the daily timeframe, we observe that Wave 1 and Wave 2 (in red) have already been completed since the beginning of 2023, and it appears that teh red Wave 3 is now also finished. Yes, I acknowledge that Wave 2 has minimally fallen below Level C – thank you for pointing that out. Our entry point at Wave 4 at $0.457 was triggered and has performed quite well so far. It remains to be seen whether there will be further downward movements in the coming days. Examining the 1-hour chart and noting the low at $0.44, we might assume that once we surpass Wave 4 (the very subordinate Wave 4 in black) – that is, above $0.52 – our current scenario with a 5-wave structure will continue. 📊📈🚀
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
1
GOLD, will NFP finally start wave C?Hello everyone, Gold currently confusing traders as it switches between correctional movements and speculative pullbacks. From a technical point of view the 2067 level is now very important for the next move, which I expect to be a short one. Only a daily candle close above can invalidate the short scenario which would have the targets 1980 , 1920 and 1895 . The yellow triangle is a possible reversal zone for a wave 2 bottom and bullish move towards new ATH with targets at 2300 and 3000 . Looking at the big picture of Gold, it has been in a very long consolidation in the 1640 - 1980 range. So far every breakout attempt over the upper boundary has been sold within a few days. But with the break above 2000 related to the middle east conflict Gold was able to stabilize above 1980. Most likely the 1980 will be retested to built liquidity for a bullish move first. I suggest to go short to anticipate in wave C of wave 2. The reversal zone for this move is the current resistance 2060 - 2067. I will keep you updated if I see conformation or trading opportunities. If you have any questions feel free to contact me.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Kyrean
Cardano (ADAUSD): Fasten your seatbelts! 🚀📈Cardano emerges with a distinctive journey. Having sculpted Waves 1 and 2 within a Flat structure, the focus now shifts to the probable completion of Wave 3, reaching a potential range between 227% and 261%. Anticipating the onset of Wave 4, we pinpoint a pivotal zone between 50% and 61.8%. A breach beneath this range would jeopardize the entire scenario, potentially falling into the territory of Wave 1. The support offered by Wave B within the Flat structure stands as a crucial level, poised to become a notable buy zone. With these dynamics in play, we anticipate a surge to at least 90 cents!
CRYPTO:ADAUSDLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
11
ABNB: price structure The macro structure is bullish from Dec'22 low with important price zones at: 198-217, 227-260 and 282-322 as inter-mediate and ultimate resistance areas for suggested impulsive structure. The gap-up set-up on earnings today is in the cards for price to move towards 198-217 area. But if price decides to consolidate more138-128 area should be an important support zone. If price goes bellow 128 suggested price structure needs to be revised. Thank you for your attention!
NASDAQ:ABNBLong
by artemfedorov
GOLD / USD; Analysis & Trading Plan (24-JAN-24)Hello Traders !! Here is my Gold Analysis & Trading Plan Gold has 2 possibilities , only BUY Setup from now, then drop from after that #tradewithcare Trade With Care, Wave IC ---------- Please follow me and like if you agree or this idea helps you out in your trading plan Disclaimer: This is just an idea. Please do your own analysis before opening a position. Always use SL & proper risk management. Market can evolve anytime, hence, always do your analysis and learn trade management before following any idea.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WaveHubFX
1