Elliottwaveideas
Our Elliott Wave 5th Wave Target Zone Hit on EURJPY Earlier today we made a quick education video discussing the tools in our indicator suite and how to use them to trade the high probability 5th wave moves. We used this EURJPY example as it was setting up. The orginal video can be viewed >>HERE<<
This next video is a follow to show our automated 5th wave target zone has been hit, completing a great Elliott 5th Wave trade on the 5 minute time frame for EURJPY.
Watch the video tour of our Elliott Wave Indicator Suite >>>HERE<<<
PFE Short 5th Wave Swing Trading on Daily Time FrameLooking for a Short Swing Trade on PFE using the Daily Time Frame.Short Entry at $35.68 with Stop Loss above our Elliott Wave 4 Pivot at $37.80 and a Target Price of $33 in our Automated 5th Wave Target Zone. The Wave 4 has pulled back and found resistance in our Amber Zone. This represents an 80% probability that the stock will hit our Automated 5th Wave Target Zone at $33.
The False Breakout Stochastic denotes a strong bearish trend with Yellow dots in the oversold zone and then pulled back against those on the 4th wave and crossed in the overbought zone. There is a strong likely hood that the stochastic will want to return to those false breakout dots and move back into the oversold zone. Our Elliott Wave Oscillator also shows the Wave 4 pullback was within our prescribed pullback zone on the Oscillator.
All of these indicators that identify a high probability Elliott Wave 5th Wave move are part of our New Elliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView and you can watch a quick video tour >>>HERE<<<
"You Gotta Be In It, To Win It"
MES Micro Emini ES Short Signal 30 Minute TimeframeLooking for a 5th Wave Short on MES, Small Risk using these Micro Futures Contracts. So a Risk of less than $200 using 3 Micro Emini MES Contracts for this potential Short.
Very Conservative entry, below recent pivot rejection - giving a 1:1 Risk to Reward to our Automated 5th Wave Target around 2952.
Again, if the Stop for the order is taken out, then cancel the trade
Watch the Video Tour of our Eliott Wave Indicator Suite for TradingView >>>HERE<<<
NDX: no impulse up off August low. Expect lower pricesThe NASDAQ100 (NDX) broke below its August 22 high and therewith invalidated its potential to do five (i, ii, iii, iv, v) waves up off the August lows. Instead it became only three: corrective. Namely, when a new move starts, even if it is five waves up or down, we can never know beforehand with all certainty if that move is an impulse (wave-1 of a 1,2,3,4,5 move) or part of a larger correction (wave-A of an ABC move). See my tweet here for example. Hence, why we must label such initial advance as wave-1/a, the retrace as wave-2/b, and the subsequent advance as wave-3/c, until one (1,2,3) or the other (a,b,c) is disproved by the markets. In this case the impulse was disproved as price overlapped with wave-i/a meaning the current decline can not be a wave-iv and so there will be no wave-v and thus thus the entire rally was a wave-a,b,c UP. Simple! In addition the wave-iii/c was only seven waves up, which means it is corrective as impulses travel in 5,9,13, etc waves. Another line of evidence pointing towards the recent rally having been corrective and not impulsive.
Now that we have proper, intellectually honest Elliott wave labeling out of the way, lets look at the bigger picture options. Price can do a nice c-wave down into the orange target zone based on the standard c=a to c=1.618x a Fibonacci extensions and as long as it doesn't move below the June low it can still be a larger wave-ii of an even larger 3rd wave. IF it breaks below the June low, and especially in a five waves down move, then we have a lower low on our hands. In addition price can then not be in a (red) wave-ii anymore because 2nd waves can't go below the start of the prior same degree 1st wave, and we are then looking for a much, much larger ongoing correction, which I would label as major wave-c of Primary-IV, well into 2020.
Trade safe!
S&P500 has started forming wave E of Triangle in 4 Primary waveSP:SPX
Hello traders
I've counted wave at SPX and I suppose that now Intermediate wave E inside 4 primary wave has started to forming itself in this month
I calculate proportions between 1 and 3 Primary waves (Green color) and let's see what I got:
1 Primary wave:
Begin 666.8$ ending 1363.6$
1363.6 - 666.8 = 696.8$ Total
696.8 / 666.8 = 104.4% Total
3 Primary wave:
Begin 1074.8$ Ending 2872.9$
2872.9 - 1074.8 = 1798.1$ Total
1798.1 / 1074.8 = 167.4% Total
Fibo proportions between 1 and 3 Primary waves:
1. Amount propotions
1 wave 696.8 * 2.618 = 1824.2 3 wave equal 1798.1 Fibo harmony :)
3 wave 1798.1 * 0.382 = 686.9 1 wave equal 696.8 again Fibo harmony :)
2. Percentage
1 wave 104.4% * 1.618 = 168.9% 3 wave equal 167.4 % Fibo Harmony :)
3 wave 167.4% * 0.618 = 103.4% 1 wave equal 104.4 % again Fibo harmony :)
Such incredible Fibo harmony in proportions between waves shown me that I have deternined ending of 3 Primary wave absolutely correct and now 4th Primary is forming itself on the Chart. In according with Elliott's waves theory the most often structure of 4th wave in Cycle is Triangle and I suppose that intermediate waves A, B, C and D of triangle are completed already and in this month the Wave E has started. I think that the target of wave E is 2186$, cause if we put Fibo retracement on 3 primary wave 38.2% will be exactly in this area and trend line between minimums of waves A and D lead us to the same area, so I'm pretty sure that there is endig of 4th Primary wave and begining of 5th Primary.
So i supose that bearish market will continue till September or October of 2019 and will found its bottom between 2150$ and 2200$ at S&P500
But may be I'm wrong who knows only time will shows us
Wish good profits for everyone! :)
I hope my forecast will help to someone
S&P500 - Are STOCKS In For A Bullish Ride? (Elliott Wave=S&P500 made a nice drop recently, which we labelled it as a wave 4) pullback with possible support near the 2976/2965 region, where former swing lows can react as turning points. A new rally in impulsive fashion would confirm a completed wave 4, and ideally new highs for a wave 5!
EURO (EURUSD) LONG on 120 mins CHART. Wave 3 up next.In EURO ( FX:EURUSD ) we had a clear 5 wave rise in wave 1 and a FLAT correction (A (3 waves), B (3 waves) and today C (5 waves) to complete Wave 2 today.
Wave 3 up should be next to 1.618 or 2.618 projection of wave 1 from bottom of wave 2 today.
For longer term picture of previous post predicting coming rise see the link below.
Cheers!
Cyrus
Elliott Wave View: An Impulsive Rally in Bausch Health (BHC)Elliott Wave View in Bausch Health (BHC) suggests the rally from June 4 low (20.28) unfolded as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20.28, wave (1) ended at 21.9 and wave (2) pullback ended at 20.8. The stock then resumes the rally higher in wave (3) towards 25.85, and wave (4) pullback ended at 24.61. Finally, the stock ended wave (5) of ((1)) at 25.9.
The stock is now correcting cycle from June 4 low within wave ((2)). Wave ((2)) pullback should unfold in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. The current pullback is proposed to unfold as a double zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 25.9, wave (A) ended at 24.64 as a diagonal structure. Expect a bounce in wave (B) then another leg lower in wave (C) as another 5 waves before wave ((2)) pullback is complete. We don’t like selling the stock and expect dips to continue finding support in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at June 4 low (20.28) stays intact.
Holiday Shortened Week Will See Fireworks in S&P 500This brief projection is based on a full study of the current Intermediate Wave 1 I am tracking for the S&P 500 index. We will see upward movement to begin the week with a top in the afternoon on July 2, 2019. We will likely drop 5-10 points into the close on this day.
The light blue numbers with parentheses around them represent each wave's end point for the Minuette waves. These projections are likely to be the most accurate on this projection chart.
The orange roman numeral 4 with a circle around it represents the projected end point for Minute wave 4. This is relatively in place, but likely to change based on the actual movement experienced through Minute wave 3 (orange roman numeral with circle around it).
The ultimate top for Intermediate wave 1 is currently projected to occur in the afternoon on July 8, 2019 with a peak around 3048-3064. This would mean a new all time high is set to occur (likely multiple times between now and then). In trying to apply real world events to a reason for a top and then a decline would likely revolve around the Fed. They will most likely NOT cut interest rates as many expect. They may however leave the door open for cuts as necessary in the future. This could see the index pullback over a total of 8 trading days with a bottom around 2875.04.
I am forecasting Intermediate wave 3 to be incredibly strong and last for up to 2 months or around the time of the 2020 US government fiscal year begins. It would be earnings season which could be the reason for a rising market (even if it is not fundamentally warranted). The end of the 2019/beginning of 2020 fiscal year could likely lead to a partisan fight in DC over what the budget should look like especially in a pre-election year.
This is as far out as I plan to forecast for now, and will adjust as necessary. I am bullish on the market until the second quarter next year. I foresee a major recession beginning next year well before the 2020 election.
Rare Engulfing Pattern To Dictate Future Movement For S&P500March 4, 2019 saw an engulfing pattern in the candlestick chart for the S&P 500 . Engulfing patterns are not rare, but one that engulfs the the price range for the prior 6 trading sessions is something to understand. I went back and found this same event (engulfing a minimum of 6 prior trading sessions) has occurred in the market only 15 times in the last 40 years. There are roughly 252 trading days in a year. Multiply that by 40 years and there have been roughly 10,080 trading days in the last 40 years. The event has occurred 0.149% over the studied time frame. This would qualify as very rare as defined by the i-base.info website.
Okay so this particular pattern is very rare, but why does it matter? Below are the charts for the most 10 most recent occurrences of this pattern. The critical information in these 10 prior instances are:
1. The index's direction prior to the pattern
2. The direction of the first break from the pattern's range
The full-analysis is available at my website. The next few days will dictate the accuracy of my analysis
July 2017
December 2013 and January 2014
April 2011
January 2005 - January 2007
January 2001
May 1997 -
May 1993 -
More Room For Markets To Drop Says S&P 500 Historical DataI have classified the current downturn as a Primary wave 2. This should be an ABC corrective wave. These waves last half the length of time that Primary wave 1 did. All my acquired data dates back to 1932 where I believe our current market Grand Supercycle run began.
Based on primary wave 1 lasting 86 days, wave 2 could last around 43 trading days from May 1, 2019 which is somewhere around the July 4 holiday.
Primary wave 2's retracement of wave 1 is also interesting. The minimum retracement a Primary wave 2 has occurred in nearly 85 years is 32.81% of wave 1. This means the bottom of the current pullback will likely see the index fall 199.34 points at a minimum from the May 1 high of 2954.13. These means the index should fall to at least 2754.79. The average and median retracements are 50.49% and 48.57% respectively. Based on these figures, the pullback could end between 2659.04 and 2647.38. What is the largest retracement for a wave 2? That would be 86.64% which would bring the market to 2427.75. Hopefully, this level remains well out of play for now. Another unique metric is that Primary Wave 1 typically moves 2.06 times more than Primary wave 2. Another potential level of interest would be 2659.20 (which is close to the aforementioned 2659.04).
Intermediate wave A of this Primary wave 2 could last around 16 trading days from May 1. This is based on all 29 Intermediate A waves over the past 85 years for this index. Waves A and C roughly last 38% of the entire Primary wave they are located inside of. Based on the projection the Primary wave will last around 43 trading days, this means waves A and C could last 16 days each and the internal corrective wave B (which will move the index up) would last the remaining 11 days. These are all based on medians and averages, but they provide a timeframe in which to spot reversal activity.
Intermediate wave A's movement averages 74% of the entire Primary wave's movement. I currently project the bottom of the primary wave to occur between 2659.04 and 2754.79. 74% of these total moves would have wave A end around 2806.62, 2735.76, or 2727.13 by May 22, 2019. Based on this data, the index is set to fall through the next two weeks at a minimum. Intermediate wave B tends to retrace wave A's movement by 60%. This means the index could bounce back up to a range of 2863.33 and 2895.13. After this rise, we shall fall to the bottom and end of Primary wave 2. A greater opportunity to sell call options could be for action above 2900 (or ~290 on the SPY ) near the end of Intermediate wave B. We will likely wait a few months before we move about 2900 again and take out the all time highs.
So what does this all mean? Between the close on May 10, 2019 and around July 4, 2019, the index could drop between 4.39% and 7.72%. A caveat to this is the Intermediate wave B which will bring the index up before it settles at its next bottom between 2659 and 2755.
All of this information is based on historical statistics and is not a guarantee to be an accurate barometer of future movement. Please share and feel free to respond with your ideas.
bored and practicingjust practicing showing yall my train of thought (theres not much really aha). again, monkey see monkey do. i have been reading more and learned about types of corrections, what to look for, truncation....need help understanding combinations. im sure i overlooked some here. Send your feedback. PEACE.
random stuffmessing around with elliot waves. just doing what ive seen ya know. monkey see monkey do. Give me some feedback if you consider yourself an elliot wave specialist. any tips/rules/axioms to follow/look for.
