USDCHF reclaims 200EMA Daily Chart
I alerted traders about a month ago to this idea about USD turning the trend around officially by getting above the 200EMA. This has occurred and why I bought back in early today.
The USD is very strong at the moment and it looks the same going forwards.
On the daily chart USDCHF has also broken through an upper-trend line on historical highs.
Educationalposts
15M bounce recently Gold Silver. Bears moving in. Trend down
I said on Friday I thought a deeper correction in Gold may happen, because, Gold and Silver price both sold-off moderately on Friday but their price closed at the bottom of a tight zone and their price made absolutely zero attempt to return to higher prices. Smart money was not buying and the same theme is happening today.
Crypto, USD$ have been rallying lately together, but Gold is being cutdown, watch out for a huge move down similar to the couple of corrections of around 15% earlier in 2024.
Please take a look at the Daily and Weekly chart.
Is Overtrading Ruining Your Profits? Find Out Now!Is Overtrading Ruining Your Profits? Find Out Now!
Understanding Overtrading: Causes, Symptoms, and Prevention Strategies
What Is Overtrading?
Overtrading is a dangerous practice in the trading and investment landscape, defined by the excessive buying and selling of financial instruments that often goes beyond an established trading plan or acceptable risk thresholds. Traders frequently fall into the trap of overtrading due to strong emotional influences such as greed, fear of missing out (FOMO), or a desperate attempt to quickly recover from previous losses. This behavior leads to impulsive decisions that may not align with rational analysis. Furthermore, the relentless stream of market information and the fear of missing profitable opportunities can exacerbate the temptation to trade more than necessary.
Another primary driver of overtrading is a lack of discipline. Traders sometimes mistakenly believe that more frequent trading equates to greater profit potential, a notion particularly common among novice traders. These traders may equate high trading activity with success, failing to realize that less frequent, well-researched trades often yield better results.
As overtrading takes hold, its consequences can be severe. Frequent buying and selling can lead to diminished profits due to increased transaction costs, such as commissions and fees, eroding potential gains significantly. Moreover, the constant trading exposes traders to heightened market volatility, increasing the risk of sudden negative price swings.
The emotional ramifications of overtrading are equally concerning. High-frequency trading activities can elevate stress levels, resulting in anxiety and compromised decision-making capabilities. Emotional states such as fear and impatience can cloud judgment, causing traders to stray from their original trading strategies.
Identifying Symptoms and Types of Overtrading
Overtrading presents itself through a range of symptoms and behaviors. By recognizing these signs, traders can take proactive steps to mitigate the risks associated with overtrading. Below are key symptoms and classifications of overtrading:
Symptoms of Overtrading
- Excessive Trade Frequency: Traders engaging in overtrading execute an unusually high number of trades, often without a concrete strategy or rationale.
- Impulsive Decision-Making: Traders may find themselves making quick, emotionally driven decisions, often fueled by FOMO or a desire for immediate profits.
- Neglecting Risk Management: Overtrading often leads to ignoring fundamental risk management principles, resulting in oversized positions and inadequate use of stop-loss orders, which heightens exposure to potential losses.
- Emotional Trading: The stress associated with frequent trading can lead to fluctuating emotions, such as anxiety and frustration, further impairing judgment and resulting in erratic trading choices.
- Chasing Losses: Overtraders commonly indulge in "revenge trading," where they attempt to recover losses quickly by taking on higher risks or deviating from their established trading plans.
Types of Overtrading
- High-Frequency Trading (HFT): This strategy involves executing a vast number of trades in a short time, often through automated systems. While HFT can yield quick profits, it often incurs high transaction costs and detracts from thorough analytical scrutiny.
- Scalping: Scalpers aim to profit from minor price changes by conducting numerous trades throughout the day. While legitimate, excessive scalping can lead to significant stress and minimal net gains.
- Day Trading Addiction: Some day traders may become overly attached to the excitement of constant trading, leading to impulsive decisions and diminished profits.
- FOMO Trading: Traders influenced by FOMO rush into trades without adequate analysis, driven by the fear of missing out on potential profits.
- Excessive Diversification: Overtrading can result in overly diverse portfolios without sufficient research, leading to a lack of focus and diluted returns.
Strategies to Overcome Overtrading
To effectively mitigate overtrading, traders need to cultivate self-awareness, discipline, and specific strategies to rein in impulsive trading habits. Here are key steps to consider:
1. Develop a Comprehensive Trading Plan: Creating a detailed trading plan with defined entry and exit strategies, risk management rules, and profit targets can provide a structured framework, reducing impulsive trades.
2. Set Trade Limits: Determine the maximum number of trades you will execute daily or weekly to prevent excessive trading and maintain focus on quality opportunities.
3. Practice Patience: Cultivate the ability to wait for high-probability setups that align with your trading plan. Resist the temptation to trade out of impatience or boredom.
4. Utilize Stop-Loss Orders: Implementing stop-loss orders for every trade helps control potential losses, safeguarding capital and minimizing emotional decision-making in volatile conditions.
5. Avoid Revenge Trading: After a loss, resist the urge to immediately make trades to recover those losses. Take time to reassess your strategy and avoid letting emotions dictate your actions.
6. Maintain a Trading Journal: Keep a detailed log of all trades, including the thought process behind each decision and emotional experiences. Reviewing this journal helps identify patterns associated with overtrading.
7. Limit Market Monitoring: Reduce the amount of time dedicated to watching the markets and financial news. Continuous monitoring can prompt impulsive actions based on transient market fluctuations.
8. Prioritize Quality Over Quantity: Focus on high-quality trades that align closely with your trading plan rather than accumulating a large number of trades.
9. Take Breaks: Regularly stepping away from trading can alleviate stress and allow for clearer thinking, enhancing your trading strategy.
10. Seek Mentor Guidance and Community Support: Engage with trading peers or mentors who can provide advice and accountability in your trading practices.
11. Practice Mindfulness: Develop mindfulness techniques to increase awareness of your emotions during trading. Recognizing emotional influences allows for better decision-making.
Implementing these strategies can bolster a disciplined, mindful approach to trading. Remember, trading success hinges on patience, focus, and adherence to a carefully constructed plan.
Lastly I would like to add this previous lecture to this post, I'm sure will be useful for you...
The Psychology Of Trading How To Manage Your Emotions
and..
and Also...
and...
In conclusion...
In the fast-moving realm of financial trading, the temptation to engage in overtrading can derail even seasoned traders from their financial objectives. By developing a thorough understanding of overtrading—its signs, causes, and classifications—traders can navigate with greater awareness and confidence.
Successful trading isn't merely about rapid profits or constant activity; it demands discipline, strategic focus, and the ability to maintain composure amidst market volatility. Through self-discipline and commitment to a well-structured trading plan, traders can protect their investments from overtrading's adverse impacts.
Whether you are an experienced trader aiming to refine your strategies or a beginner initiating your trading journey, recognizing and addressing the tendency to overtrade is crucial. Embrace the journey of self-awareness and continuous learning, as it is the cornerstone of achieving long-term financial success in trading.
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Gold out Lookthose who are bearish should see weekly Rejection till the trend line price broke its daily recent trend line and got back in i suggest that gold will remain bullish over this week as it has not broke its trend line to the downside if it does so and breaks below 2678 level of support we can consider it will drop towards 2661 and then 2648-45 level of support and will not come upwards easily then another confluence is gold has closed back in position and remained near 2700 level and retested it several times
SolUsd Weekly Double Top about to break above much higher
SolUsd is not giving much away at the moment in terms of short term profits. It's price has been moving in this massive double-top pattern that extends to the weekly charts at least.
But price on the intraday is moving away and to the right of this double-top & price will be free to drift sharply upwards. But I see its price capped short term until the last part of Solana is finished on this weekly double-top system.
In other words, you can't make a break-away with a 'head' and no body for example 'arms and legs', if you get my analogy.
Regardless, it seems a squeeze on Solana's price in the interim for a short while, will serve to give it a massive momentum shot when it makes a complete move from D.Top.
Cardano is popping, up 10% again today, will take 0.50 soon
When I first bought this a couple of weeks ago, it was in a massive contraction & squeezing stage, despite recent buyer activity, there was even more selling prior to this demand for many months earlier this year.
So I waited for it to come into my area of confluence because I was desperate to turn some red on my screen into green. I knew there was fairly recent (month or 2) buying demand so I knew this would return once price became too good to not take action to buy.
I loaded up on it around 0.33 cents and I told readers of my initial post on ADAUSD to buy in at these low levels as it would move up fast and a break above 0.455 cents would be big as well.
This Cardana is my best performing Crypto and it is a more recent Buy compared to say DOGEUSD & TRON (that gives nothing aways at this stage.)
Given where things are at now and Bitcoins firm position, 0.50 for ADAUSD is good buying I think.
Just got alerted of a newswire on this theme.
www.tradingview.com
ShibUSD...all setup on Daily & Weekly charts. Plz see.
I don't hold this particular Crypto and I am not taking this trade as such as I have enough that could go wrong already.
But this one has a Daily head n shoulders pattern which will be a rocket upwards, bullish macd and rsi momentum and the weekly chart lines up in a similar vein.
Hmmm, I think this one has an awful spread on the buy, but i'm not certain.
Oh, what I also like about this trade is that the 200ema (white thicker line) is situated right below price on the daily.
[Education] You Are Dumb For Not Using A Stop LossThe Illusion of the “Perfect Routine” and Trading Psychology
I always thought that if I did the million-dollar morning routine, take ice bath, meditate, and practice mindfulness, my trading psychology will be fixed.
Whenever I see price is moving in my favour, I shifted my stop loss to secure profits. It’s fine right? It’s never wrong to secure real profits rather than letting it be an unrealized gain. I see the price took me out as my stop loss is too tight. The price went higher and higher without me. If only I had followed my trading plan which is to do nothing until price has shown bullish impulse.
When I see that price made an impulsive move in my favour, I will wait a little while longer to secure my profits. I know my trading plan is telling me to close the position now. But let’s see if we can milk some more profits from the market. As the dipped, I promise to close my position at my original take profit price. Price continued to dip and take me out at breakeven.
Whenever I see price is approaching my stop loss, I extended my stop loss and pray hard that price will not take my position out. It’s fine right? As long as I close it at breakeven when price comes back. I waited and waited, and watched the price goes lower and lower, with my unrealized loss getting bigger and bigger. From a originally planned $100 loss, it became a $1,200 loss. It was supposed to be a 1% loss, but it turns out to be a 12% loss on my $10,000 account.
“There must be something wrong with my trading psychology.” I thought to myself. So off I went to YouTube, X, Tiktok and Instagram to look at psychology posts and videos. I gave myself mental pleasure by ensuring that I will follow my system. Then the cycle repeat itself.
Core Trading Problems That Sabotage Your Success
There are a few problems that we face as a trader.
Greed, the innate emotion that all of us have. When I waited for a while to close my position, I have already secured a hefty profit which will be realized if I followed my trading plan. However, due to greed and thinking that this trade will be the homerun trade, I let greed took over my thinking. Eventually I ended up with nothing, forgoing all my profits because I think that price will continue going in my favour.
Fear, another innate emotion that haunts all of us. Trading live means we do not know what price will do in the future. Our next trade can be a big win, small win, breakeven, small loss, or a normal loss. If you took a big loss, then you have a position sizing issue. We fear that if this is really the homerun trade, and if you followed your trading plan, you will miss out on the potential 10% extra profits. But think again, how often do this kind of runs happen?
Failure to understand these problems will have a lot of consequences to your trading career. Even with a solid trading strategy with a positive expected value, you will not actualize these results you got from your backtest. You can have an average expected return of 4% per trade, but if you don’t follow your trading system, your results will be randomized. This will make you go in a loop like this: “Backtest a new trading strategy -> Got hopeful results -> Trade live -> Don’t follow trading plan -> Watch even more trading psychology videos -> Switch to a new strategy”. The cycle will continue and you will waste precious money and time.
You want to achieve financial freedom and success through trading, right? Why would you want to waste precious money and time doing the same thing over and over again?
Why a Backtested Strategy Can Make or Break Your Trading
Yes it takes discipline to follow your trading system. But do you know what else is needed? A solid fool-proof backtest result. Have a set of backtested data ready. Have that set of data be so good that you will look like a fool for not following that trading system. If the trading system can make you 100% profits consistently every month, will you not follow your trading rules? I’m exaggerating here of course, it’s hard to achieve 100% profits consistently every month. But I’m showing you how it’s dumb of you not to follow your trading rules if it has already proven you will be profitable just by executing your trading strategy and following your trading rules. By having the set of backtested data, you are also able to estimate how your drawdown curve will look like. If it shows you on average you will experience a 6% drawdown, then if you’re at 3% drawdown, why would you be afraid of taking trades?
If you’ve been following me on my journey, you would have seen my progression. I’ve manage to break free of my unprofitable self to a consistent profitable trader now. How? Just by having a solid trading strategy with more than 1000 backtested data points. It’s simple, but not easy. Do you even keep a record of your backtested data? Do you know your average drawdown %? Probably not. I have an excel sheet made just for recording your backtested data.
Remember, trading is not easy, but the process is simple. Stay consistent and trade safe.
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Let me know what are your thoughts and learning points in the comments below so others can learn from you too!
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Silver price down 1.75% (intentional I think) to take longs out.
A lot of people were long on gold and silver on thursday and I think that it was planned to keep the price selley today to take out stops.
Anyway, XAGUSD is down 1.75% and about 31.38 now. I think the price will move swiftly back up if buyers are there.
Join the friday afternoon free silver train long and get paid to do nothing.
This is all you need to get started: a paper trading account!Starting your trading journey wisely means utilizing a Paper Trading account, also known as a demo account. This account simulates the real trading experience by mirroring market movements and conditions, but operates without the risk of losing real money. It offers traders access to comprehensive market data just like a live account, enabling practice with real-world price fluctuations—if Gold (XAU/USD) experiences a 5% rise or fall, the same scenario reflects in the demo account. This provides an excellent opportunity to understand market dynamics without financial exposure.
A Beginner's Best Friend: The Demo Account
For novice traders, a demo account is an essential entry point into the financial markets. It allows individuals to familiarize themselves with various trading aspects and strategies. Many traders base their transition to live trading on the insights and performance gleaned from their demo accounts. The convenience of setting one up is straightforward—simply use the Paper Trading option on TradingView to practice with a simulated account.
Click on the Trading Panel of your chart, and you'll find the Paper Trading option on TradingView.
Advanced Applications for Experienced Traders
However, the utility of demo accounts isn’t confined to just beginners; seasoned traders also derive significant benefits.
Experimenting with New Strategies
Experienced traders frequently utilize demo accounts to try out and assess new trading strategies. This method serves as a safe way to test different approaches without putting their capital at risk.
Evaluating Automated Tools
Developers of trading bots and algorithms rely on demo accounts for comprehensive testing of their tools. These automated systems undergo rigorous backtesting in a zero-risk environment, ensuring they are ready for live trading scenarios.
Training and Development
Demo accounts serve as effective training platforms for both individual traders and those employed within financial institutions. Whether it’s a retail trader or a professional in a hedge fund, these accounts offer vital learning experiences that hone skills effectively.
Skill Development and Confidence Building
The benefits of demo accounts extend to enhancing both technical and soft skills. Fundamental competencies such as market analysis, strategy formation, and data interpretation can be improved in a low-stakes setting. Meanwhile, soft skills like patience, resilience, and adaptability receive a boost, ultimately shaping a well-rounded trader.
Moreover, the journey can build confidence. Since trading can be intricate and losing money can shake one's self-assurance, a demo account provides a haven for refining trading strategies without risking actual funds. This psychological support can significantly influence success in the live markets, where self-confidence is often linked to profitability.
How Long Should You Practice?
The duration one should spend in a demo account varies, influenced by personal factors. For those transitioning to full-time trading, a minimum of three months is advisable. Though this may seem lengthy, it is a small price to pay for a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics and a variety of trading conditions.
The Advantages of Practicing Day Trading in a Demo Account
1- Accelerated Learning
Utilizing non-market hours for practice enables traders to quickly accumulate experience, far exceeding what can be gained during regular market sessions.
2- Preparedness for Quick Decisions
Day trading requires rapid decision-making skills. Regular practice in a demo account equips traders to respond swiftly to market fluctuations.
3- Intuitive Market Recognition
Frequent practice encourages an instinctual grasp of market conditions, vital for timely and effective trading actions.
4- Confidence in Trading Decisions
Confidence plays a critical role in a day trader's success. Thorough practice in a risk-free environment allows traders to build confidence before they step into live trading.
5- Adaptability to Market Variability
Day traders often experience victories and losses. Practicing within a controlled environment fosters a clear mindset to tackle each trade, essential for adapting to shifting market scenarios.
6- Setting Realistic Income Expectations
Repeated practice enables traders to set achievable income expectations, cultivating a sensible outlook prior to committing to full-time trading.
7- Enhancing Chart Analysis Skills
A demo account encourages traders to develop chart reading abilities without becoming overly reliant on them, promoting a balanced analytical approach.
8- Personal Trading Style Development
The complexities of day trading call for personalized strategies. Regular practice in a demo account allows traders to foster their unique trading styles and embrace accountability for their decisions.
9- Effective Risk Management
Practicing with margin in a demo account allows traders to experiment with leverage while treating each trade seriously.
Also Read:
and now...
"Best Practices for Using Demo Accounts"
To ensure you maximize the benefits of a demo account, adopt the following strategies:
Serious Approach
Although no real money is at stake, treating the demo account with seriousness enhances realism and deepens the learning experience.
Realistic Capital Allocation
Even though demo accounts may offer unlimited capital, traders should simulate an amount similar to their intended live trading capital for a more accurate experience.
Maintain Consistent Leverage
Using the same leverage plan that you would apply during live trading ensures that your demo experience aligns closely with potential future outcomes.
Gradual Transition to Live Trading
Transitioning from a demo account to live trading should be done thoughtfully. Test your strategies extensively in the demo environment, simulating real trading amounts, to reduce the likelihood of mistakes once you start live trading.
In conclusion...
In summary, a demo account is a vital resource for both novice and experienced traders navigating the complexities of financial markets. For beginners, it provides a risk-free avenue to grasp market dynamics and develop essential trading techniques. For seasoned professionals, demo accounts are indispensable for strategy testing, evaluating automated tools, and enhancing both technical and psychological skills.
While the ideal duration in a demo account varies from trader to trader, committing to three months is recommended for anyone serious about entering full-time trading. Day traders particularly stand to gain by practicing within a demo setting, allowing them to accelerate skill acquisition, prepare for snap decisions, and foster a robust sense of confidence. The structured environment of a demo account promotes the crafting of personalized trading strategies, the establishment of effective risk management practices, and the ability to adapt to real-world market conditions.
Lastly I would like to add this previous lecture to this post, I'm sure will be useful for you...
The Psychology Of Trading How To Manage Your Emotions
and..
The Benefits of Keeping a Trading Journal for Your Psychology
✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Tron TRXUSD has been a bear for a good 2 or 3 weeks. Not anymore
I must declare Tron is one of my biggest holdings, I don't tend to hold onto currency's for very long because you forever get whipsawed around with the changes to the USD, and no matter how good your original setup was, quite often in trading when you see that nice 500 or 1000 green profit, it's best to take it off the table.
This is what happened with the start of the London session today Friday, the USD started to rally and all of the top currency's starting AUD, EUR, GBP etc all went in the red, down below it was the USD pairs in the green.
TRXUSD will knock over the USD today, I did hear that Bitcoin has not followed through on taking the Higher high set recently which would officially give it breakout status. One analysis I read was that Bitcoin is currently in a 15M channel and it may head bearish until it resets. I will check soon.
I keep digressing, TRXUSD has been tumbling downwards slowly and very measured so that nobody would notice on a Daily double top. But on multiple timeframes during Asia Friday TRON has about-faced and is now heading for the bulls.
TRXUSD is one of the few cryptocurrency's that is right at the top of its price cycle, to be honest I don't even recall its fundamentals because I go by the charts, however I do occasionally research the Crypto ones I have bought or am about to buy.
What's more to say? Well there usually is a bit of a buy-spread. I bought 50,000 a little while ago on market because most of the time I can't be bothered with limit-orders because while you punch in your order and price, the ones at the other end are driving the price higher and ripping us off. I have not made a dime out of TRON yet, I can't say to you that it will move fast like DOGE as it may be a turtle (slow), you will find that its chart-structure is a super-strong-foundation and the charts are very organised and usually pointing very bullish.
Bitcoin weekly chart. A hint at how its price may head very soon
My understanding is that BTCUSD has already broken the breakout top-line of the weekly cup, it was a price at about 73,750. I could be wrong, but approximately correct. This means BTCUSD has broken out already.
This weekly chart of bitcoin contains the famous weekly head n shoulders pattern that first started forming back in 2021 or was it 2022? Either year is long enough.
In the chart you will also see a rising wedge on this weekly chart. Well bitcoin is climbing to the top right now and does not have far to go. USD might be very strong today so it may not be the session for Bitcoin, but Bitcoin is so resilient to the USD that anything is possible and BTCUSD moves fast when it wants.
Price will bounce out of the top of wedge and become independent to formations, before it makes a short retrace and then heads over the critical area which is the Cup top-lining. This will probably happen very quickly but there should be a retest of the breakout zone.
Also, you want to view the price action on a very low time frame, like 1m to 5m. There will probably be a bullish rising wedge that price also moves in before separating and breaking out.
Good luck.
GBPUSD bullish divergence daily. Lows and Highs Div.
I put out a buy on this pair a week or 2 ago, GBPUSD, a lot can happen in this amount of time, last time I called a Long-trade on this pair & the same this time.
GBPUSD is moving up towards a neckline breakout on a Double-bottom system intraday.
But the real glossy confluence I see is the Daily chart and bullish RSI divergence. In recent days the RSI on the daily chart, where divergences probably work best because most traders look for divergences on Daily & even Weekly, 4hr charts, has seen lower low to higher low on the RSI AND also lower high to higher high on the daily RSI, but on the price action for GBPUSD it was a lazy lower prices down compared to a bullish turnaround on the RSI.
So this divergence is going to be noticed by traders and GBPUSD should be a buy going forwards.
As an added bonus of confluence, I threw in some MACD's to also highlight that the trade is supported on the Daily by MACD's sweeping upwards.
Crypto Bull Run: Unveiling the First StageAfter a year-long bear market, cryptocurrency prices enter a consolidation phase at the bottom, lasting approximately 500-700 days. If the price breaks through this consolidation resistance, it could experience a bullish move of 100%-300%, This pattern occurs once every four years in the crypto market.
Currently, most cryptocurrency prices are breaking out of their consolidation phases and experiencing 100%-300% moves. This marks the first stage of the crypto bull run.
I will share the example charts below.
Regards
Hexa
Cryptocurrency ADAUSD CARDANO: Next to break out.
I bought into this one recently but it was weighing heavily since the purchase in terms of price not quite breaking-out enough, but that all changed today as Cardano moves out of its squeeze and into climbing and rallying mode.
Earlier in 2024 it entered a Supply-downtrend but in recent months buying entered into Cardano and the charts stated to expand with some volatility to upside prices.
A breakout "jump" is what ADAUSD set-out to do in 2024 and with supply switching mostly over to demand and with Bitcoin now very close to 71,000, that time is near.
DogeUsd moves up but watch 4 Bitcoins break above 76,522
Bitcoin is making a sluggish return to the long-side in trading today, so DogeUsd is following suit.
But Bitcoins next leg-up is dependant on a Top2 system 'taking' and a BTCUSD move above price 76,522 should ensure Bitcoins next bullish move but also DogeUsd.
My other pick at the moment is Cardona, ADAUSD which I picked Long at 0.33 & is now at nearly 0.39, however it's chart is indicative of much higher prices as Bitcoin Price Ascends further.
Pick of the Currency Outbreaks AUDUSD. More bulls ahead.
This is the Daily chart of AUDUSD. It's up well over 1% today.
It looks to have strength continuing to the upside due to a change in momentum favouring the Aussie.
You can see in the chart of daily how the 200ema has turned in favour of the Aussie.
I would be looking for a pullback to this 200ema which is about 0.6652 to 0.6655 to offer a wider zone of buying.
If you look ahead on the Daily, you will see a huge head n shoulders bullish setup which the bulls will be chasing.
I wrote a month or 2 ago how I expected the Aussie to breakout, but the USD has also returned to strength.
We also saw AUD perform very strongly against a basket of of other currency's in the Asian session earlier.
Silver very bullish now. Giving its usual false breaks earlier
As I mentioned for Gold price and Silver, although overextended a bit in price still, I am seeing momentum swinging back for the bulls and on the important bigger timeframes like 4hr and daily.
This chart is a recent Fibs pullback. Check it out below.