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Educational: The truth about backtestingI recently started to read a number of finance books and watching a lot of YouTube channels specifically on the topic of chaos theory and backtesting. I am going to start a series here where I share what I am learning and today we are going to delve into the world of backtesting. "Those who fail to learn history are condemned to repeat it" - George Santayana Many would agree that the above statement is truth. However one of the first thing you learn in trading/finance is that "Past performance does not predict future results". This statement is on every website, every video and every article. Everyone arms themselves with this statement and then proceeds to base the information they provide on past performance/data. Well if this statement is truth, what is the alternative to using past performance/data? Financial reports, economic forecast, technical analysis, price action, footprint chart are all based on past performance/data. The truth is that the statement is made primarily as a legal protection against mislead investors who may believe that because something happened in the past it is guaranteed to happen again. But does that mean that there is no truth to the statement ? Well not exactly. "Hindsight is 20/20" When looking at market data of the past it is very easy to see clear patterns in market behavior that seemingly repeat over and over again, creating the illusion that if you map an investing/trading strategy on this data it is very likely to performance well in the future. But this is not truth at all. In order to understand why it is not true please try to imagine the activity below. Imagine you are a racecar driver, and you're brought to a new racing track that no one has every driven on . You are task with setting the best time record on the track. You got in your car, did your best and set a record of 10 minutes to complete the track. After the race you now have a map of the track and know what turns to expect and all the details of the road. Lets say you share this information to the next driver. He now attempts to set a record on the track and he beats your record by 2 minutes and the new record is now 8 minutes. The second driver now shares what he has learnt about the track to the third driver. The third driver takes the information from driver 1 and driver 2 and modifies his car to have the right tire's, right suspension, right aerodynamics etc. in order to have to best performance on the track. The third driver goes on the track and sets a record of 5 minutes. Completely outperforming driver 1 and driver 2. Driver 3 is now the champion of the track. Below is a simple visualization of what is happening in terms of information that each driver had on their first run of the track. Driver 3 is now dominating on the track and thinks he is unbeatable. Some time has past and driver 3 is brought to a new track that no one has raced on with his modified car from the first track. He attempts to race the track and sets a record of 12 minutes. He thinks he has done well. But driver 2 attempts the track and sets a record of 7 minutes out performing driver 3 Why didn't driver 3 outperform the other two drivers on the new track with his modified car? Well, what has happened here is that driver 3 has modified his car to the specifics of the first track as best as he can but when he went on another track that has different variables his car was not able to perform as well as it did before. Maybe the terrain was too rough or maybe the corners were too tight on this new track. Regardless of the reason, the modifications made to the car ended up working against him. In backtesting this is called "overfitting". Overfitting in backtesting is when a strategy has been developed too precisely on past data causing the strategy to "fit to the curve" and there is now a risk of it not performing in the future once the market behavior changes. Above we have a demonstration of how overfitting works. Where we looked at some data in the past and then we created a strategy that would have performance well on that data. Based on this information it now seems like we have a very profitable system but lets see what happens when me use this strategy on future data without adjusting our strategy. In the image above we can see that the same strategy is no longer working in the new market environment. There are periods where it does perform but overall it is far worst. Now you might wonder, why is this? If the strategy worked on the market in the past why wont it work in the future. This is because the market is unpredictable. People often say the market is random, it is not random, what it is, is unpredictable and that is very different from being random. I will be doing another publication on chaos theory in the markets which will go into this topic much deeper, but for now, know that the reason it doesn't work is because the market is unpredictable. When looking at past data if you take a bunch of variables and brute force your way into finding a strategy you will eventually find a strategy that "fits to the curve". You should not be using backtesting as a way to necessarily find a edge but it should be used as a way to validate your edge. So with knowing this information how do we combat overfitting of data and how to properly backtest a system. When backtesting you need to deploy your backtesting using out of sample and in sample data. And what that means is that you will break apart your data into clusters. Where your "in sample" data is where you design your strategy and parameters and your "out of sample" data is where you will apply your strategy to see if it works. For example lets say you are looking at 10 years of data that you want to backtest. Take 3 years of that 10 and develop your strategy. Then with the strategy you developed which performs well on your "in sample" data you will now use it to test the other 7 years, of your "out of sample" data. What this does is prevent you from overfitting to the curve by basing your strategy on the entire data set. Below is a visualization of this What this does allow you to create a robust strategy that can be forward tested on future data. Once again this is me sharing some of the knowledge I have attained. I am sure there are programmers here on tradingview that could possible explain this better or in more details. I welcome discussion and any criticism regarding my publication. Thank you for taking the time to read and I will update this publication in the future if needed.
COINBASE:ETHUSDEducation
by ChristopherDownie
2
Making Sense of the Market (Educational Post) 📑3rd Week May 23'Hello Traders. Today I have created a summary of this previous week's price action on a Session-Session basis. I explain in detail each of the 15 Sessions and how they relate to the overarching destination for the weekly candle. I hope you enjoy and please leave some feedback in you found this either useful or interesting. Best, Shrewdcatfx 🐱‍👓 Key for Chart 1 = Asian Session 2 = London Session 3 = New York Session Monday - Black Numbers Tuesday - White Numbers Wednesday - Purple Numbers Thursday - Red Numbers Friday - Blue Numbers Important Level's Weekly Level - 1.0866 Daily Level - 1.08739 ( Created after Tuesday's Daily Candle Closure) Daily Level - 1.08532 Daily Level - 1.08401 Daily Level - 1.07597 15 Sessions Breakdown Monday - ( Black Numbers ) 1 First Asian session begins by going up and rejecting (1.08537) Daily Level. Buyers are stepping in early in the week and the new weekly candle is pulling up. 2 The First London session of the week is a catalyst to create a Higher High in market structure on the Intraday timeframes. However with the new 4hr candle price pulls back down and drops before seeing once again another opportunity for Buys 3 The first New york session of the week combined with manufacturing data saw one more push to the upside which turned out to be the High of the day. As NY session progressed price pulled back and found support at the 1.0866 weekly level before bouncing once again. Tuesday - ( White Numbers) 1- 2nd Asian session of the week price consolidates inside of the previous NY session range, not much occurs 2- London session pulls back and retests 1.0866 weekly level where price finds support once again Price consequrntly bounces and creates a new weekly High above the Monday NY session manufacturing data highs. This london session Bullish push turns out to be the high of the week 3- New York Session price eases off the high prices created during London session. Retail sales data is released and volatility and volume shakes up price in the short term but continues to ease off the highs from london session. Price drops further adn london close prints the low of the day. The daily candle closes below our 1.0866 weekly level after attempting to push up with manufacturing data and retail sales data Wednesday - (Purple Numbers) (The close of the Tuesday daily candle creates our 1.08754 Daily Level) 1. Asian Session - Pulls up to retest our new formed Daily level 1.08754. As we move through Asian Open and the 4hr candle associated with it price appears to be backing off and rejecting the new formed Daily level 1.08754. 2. At this point we have 2 Daily Candle closures above 1.08537 Daily Level, however as we move into the third london session of the week price is beginning to crease below this daily level 1.08537. Price is also continuing to reject our new formed 1.08754 Daily level from Asian session. Price effortlessly drops through 1.08537 and quickly reaches our next potential support at Daily level 1.08393 . Price keeps pushing down and it is clear that the weekly candle has flipped bearish, dropping below our Monday Asian session prices and creating a fresh low on the week. 3. NY session sees a short lived continuation but quickly reverses pulling back up and clearing out fomo sellers . Price pulls back and does a textbook break and retest at the price where the weekly candle opened on Monday Asian price consolidates at the break and retest area 1.085 Thursday - ( Red numbers) 1. Asian session completes the break and retest at 1.085 and prices begins to head back towards the low created during the previous NY session 2. London Open provides a catalyst for a continuation of momentum to the dowside as we head back towards the previous NY session Low. We touch the NY session low and create a new low price on the week. 3. New York Session Open and Unemployment data is due to release. Yes, Unemployment data is the catalyst to punch out even more lows on the week Price make a very nice and lenngthy push from here on this thursday. Friday - (Blue Numbers) 1. The Thursday daily candle closes bearish but above our 1.07597 Daily Level. Asian session attempts multiple times to keep dropping below 1.07597 but buyers hold firm here. 2. As the final London session of the week approaches prices begins to bounce off 1.07597 and creates a High on Intraday timeframes. Then comes london open and price continues to pull back to the upside Simultaneusly we can observe that as the weekly candle comes to a close, the candle is pulling back up and creating a bottom wick. 3. New York Session provides a catalyst to continue pulling back up before violently whipsawing and ranging to end off the week
Education
by ShrewdCatfx
EDUCATION: How to trade forex?Trading foreign currency on the forex market, also known as foreign exchange trading, can be an exciting hobby and a lucrative source of income for many people. Currently, the stock market trades about $22.4 billion per day, while the forex market trades around $5 trillion per day. There are various ways you can engage in online forex trading. 1. Learn basic forex terms. - The currency you are using, or selling, is the base currency. The currency that you are buying is called the quote currency. In forex trading, you will sell one currency to buy another. - The exchange rate tells you how much you have to spend in the quote currency to buy one unit of the base currency. - A long position means you want to buy the base currency and sell the quote currency. In our example above, you want to sell dollars to buy pounds. - A short position means you want to buy the quote currency and sell the base currency. In other words, you sell British pounds and buy US dollars. - The bid price is the price the broker is willing to buy the base currency for in exchange for the quote currency. The bid price is the best price at which you want to sell your quote currency in the market. - The ask price, or ask price, is the price at which the broker sells the base currency in exchange for the quote currency. The asking price is the best you are willing to buy from the market. Spread is the difference between the bid price and the ask price. 2. Specify the currency you want to buy and sell in. - Forecasting the economy. For example, if you believe the US economy will continue to weaken, and this is not good for the US dollar, you may therefore want to sell dollars in exchange for currency from a country with a strong economy. . - View a country's trading position. If a country has a lot of popular goods, it may export goods to make a profit. This trade advantage will boost economic development, thereby helping to boost the value of this country's currency. - Political review. If a country is holding an election, its currency will appreciate if the winner of the election has a fiscally biased agenda. In addition, if a country's government loosens regulations on economic growth, this will push up the value of the currency. - Read economic reports. A report on GDP, or on other economic factors such as employment and inflation, of a country will have an effect on the value of that country's currency. 3. Learn how to calculate profit. - Use the unit "pip" to measure the change in value between two currencies. Usually, one pip equals 0.0001 change in value. For example, if the EUR/USD rate increased from 1.546 to 1.547, then the value of your currency has increased by 10 pips. - Multiply the number of pips your account changes by the exchange rate to find out how much your account value has increased or decreased. 4. Market analysis. You can try several different methods such as: - Technical Analysis: Technical analysis is looking at charts or previous data to predict the direction of currency movement based on past events. The broker will usually provide you with a chart, or else you can use a popular platform like Metatrader 4. - Fundamental Analysis: This analysis involves looking at the economic background and character of the country and based on this information to make trading decisions. - Psychoanalysis: This type of analysis is largely subjective. You're basically trying to analyze market sentiment to figure out if the market is trending "bearish" or "bullish." While market sentiment cannot always be certain, you can still make some guesses, and this will positively impact your trading. 5.Define margin trading. Depending on the broker's policies, you can invest little money and still make big trades. - For example, if you want to trade 100,000 units with a margin of 1%, the broker will ask you to put $1,000 in cash in your account for safety. - Both profit and loss will be added or deducted from the account. For this reason, the best general rule is to only invest 2% of your cash in a particular currency pair. 6. Advise. - Try to use only about 2% of your total cash. For example, if you decide to invest $1,000, try using only $20 to invest in a currency pair. Prices in Forex are very volatile, and you have to make sure you have enough money to spend when the currency pair price drops. - Try using a demo account to make forex trades before investing real capital. That way you can be sure of the process and definitely should you join forex trading. After you always make the right trading decisions with a demo account, you can start doing it with a real forex account. - Limit losses. Let's say you have invested 20 USD in EUR/USD currency pair, and today you have lost 5 USD. But you haven't lost your money yet. It is important that you only use about 2% of your cash back per trade, plus a stop loss with that 2%. You still have enough capital to cover this period so you can keep the position from closing and make a profit. - Remember a loss is not a loss unless your position is closed. If your position is still open, your loss will only be calculated if you choose to close the position and take the loss. - If the currency pair moves against your will, and you do not have enough funds to cover it during this time, your order will be automatically cancelled. Therefore, you must make sure not to make this mistake. 7. Warning. - More than 90% of day traders fail. If you want to learn the common pitfalls that cause you to make bad trading decisions, consult a trusted fund manager. - Check to make sure that the brokerage firm has a specific address. If the broker does not provide an address then you better find someone else to avoid being scammed.
Education
by Sphyn-Trader
17
EDUCATION: The most common model patterns!Hello traders, I present to you a few candlestick patterns that appear frequently and have a fairly large win rate. CUP AND HANDLE The cup and handle pattern on the price chart resembles a cup with a handle, where the cup is U-shaped and the handle slopes down slightly. The cup forms after moving upwards and looks like a bowl or round bottom. When the cup is completed, a narrow price range develops on the right side and a handle is formed. A subsequent breakout of the trading range forms the handle indicating a continuation of the previous upward move. PENNANT PATTERN This is a type of continuation pattern that forms when there is a major move in the market, known as a flagpole, followed by a period of consolidation with converging trendlines, pennants, and finally a move. breaks in the same direction, like the original move, representing the second half of the flagpole. FLAG The flag pattern is used to determine the possibility of a continuation of a previous trend from a point where the price has drifted in the same trend. If the trend continues, the price could rise rapidly, making it an advantageous time to trade using a flag pattern. If you think you've seen a flag to trade, the most important thing is a fast and steep price trend. If the price slowly rises and falls below the flag, you should not trade at that time. DOUBLE BOTTOM The trajectory of the price line during the formation of the pattern resembles the letter "W". The last two price lows, located approximately the same, are a strong support zone where two price reversals are made to the upside. When the market price breaks through the resistance level of the pattern, the formation of the pattern is complete. The BUY signal appears and the trend will change.
Education
by Sphyn-Trader
4
Overview of accumulation breakout patternsWelcome to my new educational post As you can see in BCH/USDT chart, One weekly green candle is enough to overcome 1 year of bear/consolidation zone !! If you are surprised, let me tell you this is very normal behavior in crypto market as we saw this happened many times before Another example : DOGE / USD When to expect a coin to explode like that ? The accumulation pattern have many stages 1- After a period of bear market starts to deccelerate the price action becomes flat and usually take long time of horizontal accumulation between main supply and main demand (weeks / months / years ) 2- Multiple fakeouts can happen to make both buyers and sellers exhausted *The best buy (smart money) after the price reclaim the main demand after stoploss taken the second best buy after valid breakout (candle closing) The shorting is the vice-versa 3 - Finally the strong breakout take place and overcome many weeks / months or even years of bear / consolidation/ accumulation zone 4- After the coin make breakout many traders will avoid it in the early breakout but it will continue rise and rise ..and every time it rises more it becomes more risky Later it will turn to be crowded coin and many newcomers buy it at very high prices at this stage it becomes a gamble and MM will sell their profits on newbies Note : The distribution phase is the opposite of accumulation phase Note : not all coins can survive bear market, So the fundamental view has great role to support the coin I can tell you about potential coins in accumulation now which have chance to do similar thing : #FTT - #DYDX DO you know another potential coins in accumulation ? Tell me in comment section below ⬇️
Education
by Babenski
49
Types of market days that every trader should be aware of! Hello traders, today we will talk about Types of market days Some crucial aspects significantly influence technical analysis. The type of the market day is one of those crucial elements. Any trader who is actively trading in stocks, indices, cryptocurrencies, forex, derivatives, etc. may gain an advantage by properly analysing the type of market day. Today, we'll talk about "6 different types of days" that could occur in the market. Please be aware that the six days differ greatly from one another. These patterns are not inviolate, thus they should only be used as a general indicator rather than a precise one for any given trade. Types of market days: # Trend day # Double distribution trend day # Typical day # Expanded typical day # Trading range day # Sideways day #Trend Day The 'Trend day' is typically a volatile trading day with a definite bullish or negative momentum. On a day with a positive trend, the beginning candle typically represents the day's bottom, and the market subsequently slowly rises throughout the day. The day's high is typically marked by the opening candle on days with a negative trend, and the market then progressively decreases during the day. Typically, a quiet day with range-bound movements comes before the trend day. Gives the possibility of a significant reward if correctly identified. Rarely, perhaps only a few times every month, do such trending days occur. #Double distribution trend day The 'Double distribution trend day' is a slightly complicated but incredibly effective strategy for executing aggressive trades. Because of this, institutions and experienced traders make extensive use of this method. It is typically distinguished by being undecided at the start of the session. On a day like this, the market first moves in a narrow range. An initial balance is another name for it. The reference points are the initial balance high (IBH) and initial balance low (IBL). The day of the Double Distribution trend is quiet to start. The price eventually moves away from this range and tends in the direction of a new value, driven by buyers or sellers. When the market's momentum has subsided, another range-bound movement develops.Due to the fact that the majority of trading activity takes place at either extreme, this is where the phrase "Double Distribution trend day" originates. Wide initial balances are more difficult to break than narrow initial balances. #Typical Day It is distinguished by a significant rise or fall at the start of the trading day. It might be a reaction to any significant macroeconomic news. Then, by adopting opposing positions, the market participants drive the price back in the opposite direction. The market simply trades within the range it generated earlier in the trading session when a broad range was formed in a relatively short period of time. #Expanded Typical Day It resembles that of the 'Typical Day' that was previously addressed. The beginning balance is not as large as on a "Typical Day," but the early price fluctuation is less erratic. This gives market participants the chance to break this constrained range. When this range is violated, either by an increase in selling pressure or purchasing pressure, the market then moves strongly in that direction. The initial balance in this situation is greater than on a Double Distribution Trend Day but less than on a "Typical Day." #Trading Range Day Prices are being deliberately pushed up and down by buyers and sellers. Buyers and sellers who are responsive will try to enter at the extremes, driving prices back to the starting position. This kind of day offers both sides fantastic trading opportunities. #Sideways Day A "Sideways day" is one in which there is little movement in the price. As neither party makes any bold directional trades today, it is somewhat of a day of indecision for both parties. Option sellers typically enjoy trading on days like this since they can profit from time decay due to the non-directional, subdued action. Although the Trading Range Day and the Sideways may appear to be identical, they differ greatly from one another. On a "Trading Range Day," both buyers and sellers are quite prevalent; however, this is not the case on a "Sideways Day." Never stop learning I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Education
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
6
The Divergence Cheat Sheet: Your Quick Reference GuideHello dear @TradingView community! In this guide, we will delve into the concept of divergence and its significance in technical analysis, specifically focusing on its application in the cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin. Understanding Divergence: A Key Concept in Trading Divergence occurs when the price of an asset and an indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), move in opposite directions. This pattern provides valuable insights into potential price reversals or changes in trends. The Divergence Cheat Sheet To help us identify and interpret divergence patterns, a divergence cheat sheet can be an invaluable tool. It provides a concise overview of different divergence patterns and assists us in making timely and accurate decisions. By having a cheat sheet on hand, you can save time, reduce errors, and ensure they don't miss crucial signals in the fast-paced cryptocurrency market. Detecting Divergence Detecting divergence is crucial for identifying lucrative trading opportunities. By using divergence indicators like the RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator, we can gain significant insights into market trends and potential price reversals. To pinpoint divergence effectively, follow these steps: Choose an indicator capable of detecting divergence, such as the RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator. Look for discrepancies between the indicator and the price action. Regular divergence occurs when the price and the indicator move in opposite directions, while hidden divergence occurs when they move in the same direction but at different rates. Monitor the direction of the trend. Divergence can indicate a trend reversal, so keeping track of the current market trend is crucial. Confirm the divergence signal with other technical analysis tools. Divergence is just one piece of the puzzle, so it's essential to use other indicators to validate your trading decisions. Examples of Divergence in Trading Charts Let's examine a few examples of divergence on Bitcoin charts: Strong Bullish Divergence: When lows of the price decreases while the RSI increases, a regular bullish divergence occurs. This signals a potential trend reversal and presents an opportunity for a bullish trade. Strong Bearish Divergence: When highs the price of an asset is rising while the RSI is falling, it indicates a regular bearish divergence. This suggests a potential trend reversal and presents an opportunity for a bearish trade. Medium Bullish Divergence: When the lows of an asset remain equal while the RSI is rising, it indicates a medium bullish divergence. This suggests a potential increase in price, although it may not be a strong upward movement. Medium Bearish Divergence: When the highs of an asset remain unchanged while the RSI is decreasing, it indicates a medium bearish divergence. This suggests a potential decline in price, although the downward movement may not be significant. Weak Bullish Divergence: When the lows of an asset is decreasing while the RSI lows is equal, it indicates a weak bullish divergence. This suggests a potential increase in price, although it may not be a strong upward movement. Weak Bearish Divergence: When the highs of an asset are rising while the RSI remains unchanged, it indicates a moderate bearish divergence. This suggests a potential decline in price, although the downward movement may not be significant. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Hidden bullish divergence occurs when the price creates higher lows while the RSI is creating lower lows. This reinforces an existing uptrend and suggests its strength. Hidden Bearish Divergence: Hidden bearish divergence is observed when the price forms lower highs while the RSI forms higher highs. This indicates a potential weakening of the current uptrend and might signal a trend reversal or a pullback. By recognizing these divergence patterns on trading charts, we can gain insights into potential market reversals, entry and exit points, and adjust trading strategies accordingly. Incorporating Divergence into Your Trading Strategy To effectively incorporate divergence into your trading, consider the following steps: Identify the appropriate indicators: Choose reliable indicators such as RSI, MACD, or Stochastic Oscillator that can detect divergence patterns effectively. Learn to spot divergence: Familiarize yourself with the different types of divergence patterns and practice identifying them on price charts. This will help you develop a trained eye for spotting potential trading opportunities. Confirm with additional analysis: While divergence can provide valuable signals, it's essential to use other technical analysis tools to confirm your trading decisions. Look for supporting indicators, chart patterns, or trendline breaks that align with the divergence signal. Set clear entry and exit criteria: Define your entry and exit points based on the divergence signal and your risk tolerance. Consider using stop-loss orders and take-profit levels to manage your trades effectively. Practice risk management: Implement proper risk management techniques, such as position sizing, to protect your capital. Divergence alone should not be the sole basis for your trading decisions but rather an additional tool in your arsenal. Backtest and refine your strategy: Test your divergence-based trading strategy on historical price data to assess its effectiveness. Make adjustments as needed and continuously monitor and evaluate your results to improve your trading approach. Remember, divergence analysis is not foolproof and should be used in conjunction with other technical analysis methods and market factors. Regular practice, continuous learning, and adapting to changing market conditions are crucial for successful trading. Divergence analysis is a powerful tool that can provide us with an edge in the cryptocurrency market. By understanding and effectively utilizing divergence patterns, we can identify potential trend reversals, improve entry and exit timing, and enhance overall trading strategy. Incorporate divergence analysis into your trading approach and combine it with other technical indicators and risk management techniques for a well-rounded and informed trading strategy.
Education
by Vestinda
2
What Is "Scalping" In ForexHello Traders, We thought that we'd make a little guide to those of you who are looking at scalping as a possible trading strategy. This educational idea will give you a few things to consider and we hope that it will inform you of what you can expect from being a scalper. Our Take: Personally for us scalping isn’t our style and we wouldn’t recommend it to anyone but some people absolutely love it and are drawn into this type of trading because of the huge profit potential which is why we thought that we’d make this educational guide so that if you want to become a scalper then you know what you’re getting yourself into. Scalping can be a great way to trade but if you want to break out of that 9-5 job and not sit at a computer all day then scalping definitely isn’t your style. The reward you get from being a scalper comes with an equal risk and this is something a lot of people overlook. A Message From Us: We hope that you liked our guide and be sure to look out for our next educational guide where we’ll go over more lessons in regards to trading. If you have anything you want us to cover then please do contact us and we’ll see what we can do. We’d love it if you could show your appreciation if you liked this post and we wish you the best. Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDEducation
by jpeacockfx
4
Unraveling Efficient Market HypothesisMany believe that a well-defined, simple, and robust trading strategy can help a trader acquire gains that outperform the market or purchase undervalued stocks in hopes of outsized returns upon rebound, but is this the case? Students of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) would argue that fundamental and technical analysis are pointless approaches to the market that are merely a mirage of a self-fulfilling prophecy. EMH is a cornerstone of modern financial theory, which posits that markets are perfectly efficient and always reflect all available information. The influence of EMH is pervasive, guiding investment strategy and shaping financial regulation. There is growing skepticism among academics and traders about the accuracy and efficacy of EMH in modern markets. EMH is a dense topic, but we will do our best to dive into what EMH is, its strengths, and its limitations in modern times. Understanding EMH To understand what EMH is, we need to understand the forms of EMH, of which there are three levels of efficiency: weak, semi-strong, and strong. The weak form of EMH suggests that current prices reflect all past trading information, including past prices. Thus rendering fundamental analysis and technical analysis moot and impossible to beat the market. Semi-strong EMH argues that the current price accounts for all public data and does not include private data. Again, fundamental and technical analysis will not be fruitful in helping traders outpace market returns. The strong form of EMH posits that prices reflect all available information, including insider information. In Support Of and Against EMH Supporters of EMH argue that markets are efficient because of the excess number of rational investors, and the competition among them (bulls vs. bears) ensures that prices are always accurate. The more market participants there are, the more efficient a market becomes as it becomes increasingly competitive and more price information becomes available. The competitive nature and increased liquidity of the market shows that it is difficult, at best, to consistently outperform the markets. Opponents of EMH argue that human biases and irrational behavior can lead to market inefficiencies. Investors often make irrational decisions based on emotions and cognitive biases. This is tough to argue, given the countless articles and books on market psychology. Market anomalies, such as the value and momentum effects, also suggest that markets are not perfectly efficient. Historical market events, such as the 2008 financial crisis or other perceived “bubbles,” further question the assumptions of EMH. Practical Implications and Real-World Observations Despite EMH, some investors have consistently outperformed the market; famously among them is Warren Buffet. Some hedge funds have also been successful in beating market benchmarks. One could argue that though a market is efficient, there are individuals who are statistical anomalies that have outperformed the market under EMH theory. Market inefficiencies and opportunities exist in specific asset classes or regions, such as emerging markets or distressed debt-stricken economies, but an easily observable form of market inefficiency is arbitrage trading. Wherein traders buy and sell to exploit minute price discrepancies of assets between exchanges. Alternative Approaches It is hard to objectively believe that one can not formulate a system that helps a trader make returns that outpace the market. Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are two approaches to investing that challenge the assumptions of EMH. Fundamental analysis involves examining company-specific information and valuations to find undervalued stocks which is entirely conflicting with EMH theory. While technical analysis involves using price patterns and indicators for market timing in hopes of profits in your chosen trade direction. The Future of Market Efficiency The rise of technology, such as high-frequency trading, trading algorithms, and artificial intelligence, is changing the landscape of financial markets. Some argue that technology is making markets more efficient; others would suggest that it is introducing new sources of market inefficiencies. Will the definitive parameters of what EMH need to be adjusted as the markets evolve? Only time and people with significantly larger brains than I will tell. Conclusion EMH remains a principal concept in modern finance, but not without limitations and challenges. It is paramount for traders to understand what EMH is, even if they rely on different analysis theories to make their own trading decisions. Investors should adopt a flexible and adaptive approach to investing, recognizing that markets are not always perfectly efficient and that opportunities for outperformance exist. Ultimately, we believe the key to successful investing is a combination of sound strategy, disciplined execution, and a willingness to learn and adapt. If you like this post, don't forget to drop a boost and follow our page for more educational content!
DJ:DJIEducation
by LeafAlgo
3
Bull Market Booming: Top Tips to Maximize Your Investment Gains!It appears that a bull market has taken hold in the US market, as evidenced by the remarkable rise of the S&P 500 index, surging over 20% from its October lows. Adding to this favorable outlook, the Federal Reserve has finally implemented a much-anticipated pause in the cycle of interest rate hikes. With the shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish, investors are eagerly looking for avenues to leverage this upward trend and make the most of the prevailing conditions. Today, we will delve into the various factors that indicate the arrival of a bull market, along with strategies and invaluable tips to help you seize the opportunities presented by this favorable market scenario. What Lies Behind All This Optimism? The current wave of optimism in the market and the emergence of a new bull market can be attributed to several significant factors that are often overlooked or avoided in discussions. One key reason behind this optimism is the remarkable earnings results reported by companies. Investors are celebrating the fact that companies are no longer delivering mediocre performance. Instead, they are exceeding expectations and showcasing strong growth. This shift in mindset from accepting average results to embracing a "glass-half-full" outlook is driven by the realization that companies are meeting and even surpassing the high growth expectations set for them. This surge in optimism is fueled by the confidence that companies have proven their ability to generate substantial earnings and capitalize on market opportunities. Investors are therefore responding by driving up the market and contributing to the overall bullish sentiment. It is important to acknowledge and consider this fundamental aspect when discussing the reasons behind the current optimism and the substantial year-to-date increases observed in the market. The impressive performance of companies and their ability to meet or exceed growth expectations have played a vital role in shaping the current bullish market sentiment. S&P 500 daily chart The positive forward guidance provided by CEOs further reinforces the current optimism in the market, as it signals their increased confidence in navigating challenges, particularly those posed by inflation. A notable example of this trend can be seen in Nvidia's Q1 earnings report, which highlighted the company's upwardly revised guidance. This adjustment reflects the strong demand for AI technologies that power applications at major industry players such as Google, Microsoft, and OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT. Nvidia's projected revenue of $11 billion for Q2 significantly surpassed the estimates put forth by Wall Street analysts. This impressive figure serves as tangible evidence that the AI craze is more than just hype. The surge in demand for graphics processing units (GPUs) from both established tech giants and startups as they develop their AI platforms has been a key driver behind Nvidia's remarkable performance. As a result, the company's shares experienced a staggering 26% surge, propelling Nvidia's market value to an extraordinary $1 trillion. This achievement places Nvidia among the elite group of publicly traded US companies that have reached this milestone, joining the ranks of industry giants such as Apple, Microsoft, Google parent Alphabet, and Amazon. The significance of Nvidia's market value milestone further solidifies the notion that the demand for AI technologies is substantial and here to stay, providing a strong foundation for the ongoing bull market in the US market. Tesla stock daily chart Tesla has also emerged as a significant player worth noting in the current market landscape. The company has experienced a remarkable turnaround, with its stock value surging by an impressive 70% over a six-month period, including a notable 53% increase in the past month alone. This is a noteworthy development, considering that Tesla had suffered a substantial loss of around two-thirds of its value in 2022. The strategic and timely price cuts implemented by Tesla, although initially perplexing to some, are now proving to provide the company with a potential market share advantage. These price adjustments have contributed to the renewed interest and confidence in Tesla, ultimately fueling its recent resurgence. As the Q1 reporting cycle has concluded, the results reveal a strong performance for tech stocks in the latter half of the year. This surge can be attributed to the prevailing optimism surrounding the Federal Reserve's approach to nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. The anticipation of higher interest rates, coupled with concerns of slower economic growth and softer labor market conditions, has contributed to a decline in inflation. Surprisingly, the adverse effects that were initially expected to impact households and businesses have been less severe than initially predicted. Furthermore, with the concerns surrounding the US debt ceiling alleviated and the mitigation of inflation risks, the overall market sentiment has undergone a transformation from bearish to bullish. This shift in sentiment is likely to continue, with stocks, particularly mega-cap tech companies like Tesla, expected to maintain strong returns throughout the remainder of the year. Overall, Tesla's impressive turnaround and the positive performance of tech stocks exemplify the overall market's optimistic outlook, driven by a combination of factors such as Federal Reserve actions, inflation dynamics, and improved market conditions. Top Bull Market Stocks to Consider Buying Now: Tesla (TSLA) This is not financial advice. Indeed, Tesla's influence extends beyond its position as a dominant player in the electric vehicle (EV) market. The company's offerings go beyond vehicles and encompass solar and energy storage solutions. Tesla's plans to establish a factory in Shanghai for manufacturing Megapack batteries further solidify its position as a leader in the renewable energy sector. These batteries play a crucial role in storing renewable energy, alleviating strain on the grid during peak hours, and promoting a more sustainable energy ecosystem. While Tesla's growth will be primarily driven by its vehicle production, the company's positive outlook is reinforced by upcoming price cuts and the launch of new products such as the highly anticipated Cybertruck and Semi. These product expansions contribute to the company's overall growth potential and indicate its commitment to innovation and diversification within the EV market. Despite some mixed recent financial results, investing in Tesla during the current bullish market phase is seen by many as a reasonable bet on the company's potential to become the world's largest automaker. Tesla's strong market presence, technological advancements, and commitment to sustainability have garnered significant investor confidence and positioned the company for continued success in the evolving automotive and renewable energy sectors. Alphabet (GOOGL) Alphabet stock daily chart Google, with a staggering market capitalization of $1.6 trillion, stands as one of the most prominent names in the business world. It secures its place among the top five most valuable companies globally and boasts a widely recognized and esteemed brand. Google remains at the forefront of groundbreaking advancements in various technological spheres, including mobile technology, cloud services, data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), and virtual reality. These innovative developments continue to drive the company's success and shape its competitive edge. Notably, a significant portion of Google's revenue stems from its dominance in internet advertising, a lucrative sector that contributes substantially to its financial performance. The active integration of AI within Google's operations serves as a strong catalyst for the growth of its shares. As AI technology becomes increasingly prevalent, it expands the addressable market for Google, creating new avenues for growth and revenue generation. The global corporate AI market, in which Google actively participates, is projected to experience a remarkable annual growth rate of 34.1% until 2030. This highlights the immense potential and opportunities that lie ahead for Google as it leverages AI capabilities to propel its business forward. With its continuous pursuit of technological innovation and a diversified revenue stream, Google remains a formidable force in the industry, poised for sustained growth and influence in the years to come. Intel (INTC) Intel stock Monthly chart The increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) technology has created a surge in demand for chips, leading to notable market movements for prominent AI chip manufacturers. Both Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA have experienced significant share price increases since the start of 2023, capitalizing on the growing enthusiasm surrounding AI advancements. In light of this trend, chipmaker Intel is also seeking to position itself as a key player in the AI chip market. Intel has been engaged in negotiations for a strategic initial public offering (IPO) investment with Arm, a renowned British chipmaker. This move follows NVIDIA's previous unsuccessful attempt to acquire Arm. By exploring this potential partnership, Intel aims to solidify its position in the AI chip sector and leverage Arm's expertise and technology to enhance its own capabilities. The negotiations highlight the fierce competition among chipmakers to secure a prominent position in the rapidly expanding AI market. As the race for AI chip dominance intensifies, these developments demonstrate the strategic moves undertaken by major players in the industry to stay ahead in the evolving landscape of AI technology. The outcome of these negotiations will undoubtedly have implications for the future trajectory of the AI chip market and the competitive dynamics among key players such as AMD, NVIDIA, and Intel. Strategies For Investing In A Bull Market If we are indeed in the early stages of a new bull market, it's crucial to have strategies in place to make the most of rising stock prices. Here are four strategies to consider: 1 ) Diversification and Asset Allocation: Review your asset allocation to ensure you have sufficient exposure to stocks to benefit from the bull market. Consider rebalancing your portfolio by reducing your allocation to bonds and cash while increasing your allocation to equities. However, exercise caution and remain aware that market conditions can change rapidly. Don't assume that stocks will only go up from here. Maintain a well-balanced portfolio that includes a mix of stocks, bonds, and cash. If you're uncertain about the ideal mix, the Rule of 110 suggests subtracting your age from 110 to determine the percentage of your portfolio to allocate to stocks. 2 ) Focus on Growth Stocks and Sectors: In a bull market, growth stocks and sectors tend to perform well. Look for innovative companies that leverage technology to create efficiencies or address global challenges. Industries experiencing rapid growth in 2023 include CBD product manufacturing, 3D printing, solar power, and artificial intelligence. Remember that growth stocks offer higher return potential but also come with increased risk compared to more established companies. 3 ) Consider Value Investing: Value stocks are equities that appear undervalued relative to their intrinsic value. They may be trading at lower prices due to investor overreactions or a market environment that favors faster-growing assets. In a strong bull market, value stocks may lag as investors favor growth assets. However, for patient, long-term investors, this presents a buying opportunity. Value stocks often shine during bear markets and may offer dividend payments. Utilize the bull market to increase your holdings of value stocks, which can act as a buffer during the next bear market while providing dividend income. 4 ) Dollar-Cost Averaging: Implement a strategy known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), where you invest a fixed amount on a regular schedule, regardless of market fluctuations. For example, invest $400 on the same day each month instead of trying to strategically time the market. DCA helps manage the volatility often seen in the early stages of a bull market. By investing consistently, you buy more shares when prices are low and fewer shares when prices are high. This approach lowers your average cost basis over time and minimizes the impact of short-term market fluctuations. Remember that these strategies should be tailored to your individual financial goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon. It's advisable to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalized guidance before making any significant investment decisions. Risks To Be Aware Of In A Bull Market While bull markets can present favorable opportunities, it's crucial to be aware of potential risks and pitfalls. Here are three significant risks to consider: 1 ) Overconfidence and Speculation: During a bull market, there is a tendency for investors to become overconfident and take on higher levels of risk. This can lead to speculative investing, where investors chase after high-risk, high-reward opportunities. However, when the bull market eventually ends, these speculative investments may experience substantial losses. It's important to maintain a balanced approach to investing and avoid excessive risk-taking, as downturns can permanently impact the outlook for smaller, less established companies. 2 ) Market Bubble: Bull markets can sometimes give rise to market bubbles, where stock prices become significantly detached from their underlying value. This occurs when investors, driven by excessive optimism, push prices to unsustainable levels. While market bubbles can provide opportunities for gains in the short term, they also carry the risk of a sudden correction or crash. Once the bubble bursts, panic can set in, causing a rapid decline in stock prices and the onset of a new bear market. It's essential to remain cautious and be aware of signs of excessive market exuberance. 3 ) Impact of Interest Rates and Inflation: The interplay between interest rates, inflation, and economic conditions can influence the trajectory of a bull market. Changes in interest rates by central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, can impact borrowing costs and corporate profitability. Additionally, shifts in inflation levels can affect consumer spending power and overall economic growth. Uncertainties regarding future interest rate hikes or spikes in inflation can introduce volatility and potentially dampen or reverse a bull market. It's important to monitor economic indicators and the actions of central banks to gauge their potential impact on market conditions. It's worth noting that predicting the specific outcomes of these factors in the coming months or years is challenging. The key is to remain vigilant, maintain a diversified portfolio, and consider the long-term perspective when making investment decisions. Consulting with a financial advisor can provide valuable guidance in navigating the risks associated with a bull market. Tips For Benefitiing From A Bull Market To successfully navigate a bull market and maximize your investment potential, it's important to consider the following strategies: 1 ) Stay Disciplined: Maintaining discipline is crucial in avoiding excessive risk-taking and speculative behavior. Define your investing parameters and process, and stick to them. Establish clear criteria for the types of investments you're willing to make and the level of risk you're comfortable with. Evaluate any exceptions carefully and have a clear exit plan for more speculative assets. By staying disciplined, you can mitigate the risks associated with overaggressive investing and ensure a more measured approach to capitalizing on the bull market. 2 ) Think Long-Term: Adopting a long-term perspective is key to protecting your investments from short-term market fluctuations and potential downturns. While it can be tempting to make impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements, it's important to focus on your long-term financial goals. Allocate a portion of your portfolio to cash reserves to cover emergencies or major purchases, so you don't need to tap into your investment accounts during market volatility. This long-term outlook allows you to weather market cycles and take advantage of opportunities that may arise, while also providing stability and peace of mind. 3 ) Rebalance Regularly: Bull markets can lead to overexposure to stocks as their value appreciates. Regularly rebalancing your portfolio helps maintain your desired asset allocation. For example, if your target allocation is 70% equities and 30% bonds and cash, and stocks have outperformed, your allocation may shift to 75% stocks and 25% bonds and cash. By periodically selling stocks and purchasing bonds, you can restore your desired asset allocation and lock in some profits from the bull market. Rebalancing also helps manage risk by ensuring that your portfolio remains aligned with your risk tolerance and investment objectives. 4 ) Seek Professional Advice: Each individual's financial situation is unique, and it's important to consider your circumstances when implementing investment strategies. Regularly review your investment plan and consult with a financial professional to ensure it remains aligned with your goals and risk tolerance. A financial advisor can provide personalized guidance based on your specific situation, help you navigate market trends, and offer insights on potential investment opportunities. They can also assist in assessing the performance of your portfolio and making adjustments as needed. By following these strategies, you can position yourself to make informed investment decisions, manage risk, and capitalize on the opportunities presented by a bull market. However, it's important to remember that investing involves inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Stay informed, monitor market conditions, and be prepared to adjust your strategies as needed. Conclusion: As the bull market gains momentum, it is essential for investors to be well-prepared and make informed decisions. Employing various strategies such as diversification and asset allocation, emphasizing growth stocks and sectors, considering value investing, and implementing dollar-cost averaging can significantly enhance one's ability to navigate the market effectively. Nevertheless, it is crucial to remain cautious of potential risks, including overconfidence, market bubbles, and the influence of interest rates and inflation. To maximize gains during the bull market while minimizing potential risks, it is vital to maintain discipline, adopt a long-term perspective, regularly rebalance portfolios, and seek professional advice. It is important to note that individual circumstances vary, thus investment strategies should be tailored to align with personal financial goals and risk tolerance.
Education
by FOREXN1
14
NZDJPY - DAILY TIME FRAMEThe Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
Long
by Tradelikemee
EDUCATION: DCA with Trader!What is DCA? How to use the price averaging strategy to increase profits DCA or price averaging strategy can be an effective way to manage risk when investing in assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies… I will walk you through how it works and its pros and cons. for easy understanding. When considering investment, if you have a large amount of money in hand ready to invest. DCA is a method that can be suitable for both experienced and new investors to reduce the risk of seeing how their investments decline in value. What is DCA? - DCA (price averaging strategy) is a method of breaking down capital to invest in a fixed and more frequent way over a long period of time. - This is a smart investment strategy. However, you must not confuse it with the fact that you bottom out the price of an asset when it drops deep to buy at a good price. - DCA is really good if you correctly predict the trend by analyzing the market. And of course, the price averaging strategy must involve technical analysis or specifically instrument indicators such as MA, MACD, Bollinger bands, Elliott waves, etc. Bitcoin problem using DCA Now do a math on Bitcoin investment for you to visualize. Problem 1: Buy Bitcoin once with all assets This is the case I think is mostly true for newcomers to the market. For example, you have 10000$ and buy it all with bitcoins for 8000$. You get 1.25 BTC. Then Bitcoin achieves the gain/loss that you want to sell, then we will have a profit/loss table with the selling prices as follows: - SELL at 6000$ = Take Profit -2000$ - SELL at 12000$ = Take Profit 2000$ - SELL at 14000$ = Take Profit 4000$ This is a basic math problem. The next step is to use the average price of your capital. Try it out and see how it turns out. Here, I will divide according to market developments so that you can consider it in the most comprehensive way. Problem 2: DCA in a bear market This is a problem that makes the DCA method really shine. Now, let's say the plan with the capital of 10000$ above will buy in batches. Divide the capital into 4 times, so use $ 2500 for each installment. Proceed to buy bitcoin at 8000, 6000, 5000, 3000. So after 4 such purchases the number of Bitcoins you hold is 2.0625 BTC. After that BTC returns to the upside, you will calculate profit and loss at the prices if you sell as shown in the table below: - SELL at 4000$ = Take Profit -1750$ - SELL at 10000$ = Take Profit 10625$ - SELL at 12000$ = Take Profit 14750$ Do you see that if the expectations are right, the profit will be huge. When bitcoin fell, you increased your holdings more than you could buy once. Investment capital increased as BTC price increased with a total profit of ~1.5 times when selling at $12000. Problem 3: DCA in a sideways market When the market moves sideways for a year, for example, the price moves in a narrow range. You can buy bitcoin in 4 batches at the prices 8000, 7500, 7000, 6000. With these buying prices you will buy 0.877976 BTC. You can see it's similar to a one-time purchase with all capital, right? The market can move sideways, up and down. But end up where they started in the long run. However, you will never be able to accurately predict where the market is headed. If bitcoin had moved even lower, rather than higher, the price average would have allowed for even bigger profits. This is where you make sure you have long-term profits, not just immediate ones. Problem 4: DCA in a rising market In this last problem, also divide the capital of 10000$ into four installments for 5000, 6500, 7000, 8000. So after 4 purchases you have 1.55 BTC. When the price increases, you have the profit and loss in the following table: - SELL at 4000$ = Take Profit -3800$ - SELL at 6000$ = Take Profit -700$ - SELL at 8000$ = Take Profit 2400$ This is a problem where DCA performs a bit poorly, at least in the short term. Bitcoin rallied higher and then continued higher. Therefore, price averaging does not help you maximize your profits. This one involves buying the whole thing in one go. But unless you are making short term profits, this is a rare scenario in life. Bitcoin can evaporate, kkk. So, if you are investing for the long term, it is advisable to spread the capital in the trades. Even if that means you have to pay more at a certain price. Is the price averaging strategy really good? In general, the price averaging strategy offers three main benefits that can lead to better returns: Avoiding market fomo, avoiding market confusion, Long term investment thinking. Because investors often fluctuate between fear and greed. They tend to make emotional trading decisions when the market reverses. However, if you use DCA, you will buy when people are selling in fear (green quit, red watch, kkk). Get a good price and set yourself up for a long profit. Markets tend to move up over time, and averaging prices can help you realize that a bear market is a great long-term opportunity. Instead of being afraid of things. Limitations of the average DCA method The first, perhaps the most discussed, is the modest profit. More frequent purchases increase transaction costs. However, with exchanges charging less transaction fees, this cost becomes more manageable. Furthermore, if you are investing for the long term, the fees will become very small compared to your overall portfolio since you are buying for long term investment purposes. Binance is my top choice because of its diverse ecosystem and reasonable fee schedule. Second, you can forego the profit you would have earned if you had invested in a one-time purchase and the property you purchased appreciates in value. However, the success of trading largely depends on identifying the market correctly when predicting the short-term movement of an asset class. This is done by famous and good analysts.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Sphyn-Trader
1