SMART MONEY CONCEPT EXPLAINEDThe Smart Money Concept (SMC) involves understanding the behavior and strategies of institutional investors to inform trading decisions. Within SMC, there are several key components and strategies, including concepts like CHoCH (Change of Character), BOS (Break of Structure), FVG (Fair Value Gap), and others. Here's an in-depth explanation of these concepts:
1. Change of Character (CHoCH)
Definition
CHoCH refers to a significant shift in market sentiment or trend. It's a point where the market changes direction, indicating a potential reversal.
Identification
Higher Highs to Lower Lows (or vice versa): In an uptrend, CHoCH occurs when the market stops making higher highs and starts making lower lows, signaling a possible downtrend.
Volume and Momentum Shifts: Increased volume or momentum in the opposite direction can also indicate a change of character.
Application
Entry/Exit Points: CHoCH helps traders identify potential entry and exit points by signaling when a trend might be reversing.
2. Break of Structure (BOS)
Definition
BOS occurs when the price breaks a significant support or resistance level, indicating a continuation or reversal of the trend.
Identification
Support/Resistance Levels: When price breaks these levels with strong momentum, it signals a BOS.
Swing Highs and Lows: A break above a previous swing high or below a previous swing low is considered a BOS.
Application
Trend Confirmation: BOS helps confirm the direction of the trend, allowing traders to align their trades with the prevailing market direction.
3. Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Definition
FVG represents a price gap left in the market where there was a rapid price movement, often due to high volatility or significant market orders.
Identification
Price Gaps: FVGs are visible as gaps on the price chart where little to no trading occurred.
Imbalance Zones: These are zones where the buying and selling are not balanced, leading to rapid price movement.
Application
Retracement Points: FVGs often act as magnets for price, as the market tends to revisit these gaps to fill them, providing potential retracement or entry points for traders.
4. Other Major Parts of the Smart Money Concept
Liquidity Pools
Definition: Areas in the market where a large number of orders are clustered, typically around key support and resistance levels.
Application: Institutions often target these areas to trigger stop-loss orders, creating liquidity for their trades.
Order Blocks
Definition: Consolidation areas where institutions place large buy or sell orders, creating a base for future price movement.
Identification: These are visible as zones of consolidation on the chart.
Application: Order blocks can act as strong support or resistance levels, providing potential entry or exit points.
Institutional Candles
Definition: Large candlesticks that represent significant institutional activity.
Identification: These candles are usually much larger than the surrounding ones and often occur at key levels.
Application: They signal strong buying or selling interest from institutions, indicating potential future price direction.
Stop Hunts
Definition: The practice where institutions push the price to trigger stop-loss orders placed by retail traders to create liquidity.
Identification: Sudden, sharp price movements towards obvious stop-loss levels.
Application: Recognizing stop hunts can prevent premature exits and provide entry points at better prices.
Market Cycles
Accumulation Phase: Period where smart money is building positions, often characterized by sideways price movement with low volatility.
Mark-Up Phase: After accumulation, the price starts to move upward rapidly as institutions push the market in their favor.
Distribution Phase: Institutions begin to offload their positions, leading to sideways movement with high volatility.
Mark-Down Phase: Following distribution, the price moves downward rapidly as institutions sell off their positions.
Educationalposts
Gold SellAs i have predicted earlier that gold will go down as it is forming a Bearish Flag pattren but at that time fundamental got in as a CPI news but i am still stick to the plan from a good Markup price of 2330 which is also a physiological level and a strong support became resistance through which gold has taken resistance almost 2 times in current scenario now gold is going upwards for liquidity sweep and then will rally down to fill FVG and take out sell side liquidity also in higher time frames and major trend of gold is down trend so we won't change our plan being bearish
Keep trading guyz only take care of ur capitals R:R for money management is all what we traders have got
We can't control the market but can control our losses
Solve a WEEKLY PUZZLE :)See the screenshot below.
Imagine this is the only data you have and only timeframe.
What will happen in the nearest future?
Price will go up to green, stays in the grey range, or down to red?
Answer in the comments with your arguments, and later I'll publish a video breakdown.
EurUsd BuyTypically speaking i am buy baised on EURUSD but its in sell trend as it has broken daily trendline with a high volume sell candle which has left a fair value Gap which is to be filled so the pair shall have to fill the gap and then go for a sell so we are waiting for pair to its direction a simple scalp trade is buy trade
EURUSD BuyEURUSD Long as we have seen in previous times it has given good of the short trades but it seems like that short is almost over price action can also be seen which shows us market is almost exhausted wich can also be observed through volume which shows us market is indecision we are long in EurUsd in time we will wait for rectangular range which after breakout we will go long
IPO Investing: Bad or Very Bad ?IPOs can be enticing opportunities for investors to jump into potentially high-growth companies from their early stages. While IPOs can offer significant returns, a strategy of investing in every IPO that hits the market is not considered prudent.
Let us explore several key reasons why such an approach is unwise for investors.
Lack of Information:
IPOs often lack comprehensive financial history and operating data. As a result, investors have limited insights into the company's performance, growth prospects, and competitive positioning. Investing without adequate information increases the risk of making uninformed decisions and exposes investors to potentially unprofitable ventures.
Limited Track Record:
Since many IPOs are relatively young companies, they often lack a substantial track record in navigating economic downturns or industry-specific challenges. Assessing their long-term sustainability is just impossible.
High Valuations:
IPOs tend to be priced at a premium to attract investor interest. Especially, When innovative companies go public, It becomes difficult to value such companies owing to the absence of any market comparable. The result is higher valuations. An epic example is NSE:PAYTM . Also, If you boost this post, It would help us to reach many like-minded investors like you.
Uncertain Performance:
When valuations are high, so are the expectations. Newly listed companies face challenges in meeting the high expectations set by the market. While some perform exceptionally well, others struggle to deliver. This brings panic.
Diversification Concerns:
Investing in every IPO can create an imbalanced portfolio. The preset proportions may go haywire. Especially, when investors are forced to become long-term investors in a company due to a substantial decline in the stock price post listing.
Conclusion:
While IPOs may offer the allure of early-stage growth and potential windfall gains, investing in every IPO is not a wise strategy for investors. The lack of information, market volatility, high valuations, uncertain performance, and limited track record are among the key concerns. Instead, investors should approach IPOs cautiously, conduct thorough research, and focus on building a diversified portfolio that aligns with their risk tolerance and long-term investment goals.
Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
INDIGO: A quick refueling is due??Okay, This one was requested by our newest follower @anurag3235
We are keeping the chart simple and self explanatory as always.
Although, One important thing to know is that the public shareholding in Indigo is mere 2%. Confused on if you should invest? We have a post that will help you make up your mind. Direct link is below:
What should we analyze next?
Have Requests, Questions, or Suggestions? DM us or comment below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
More Than Money 💸Hello, friends! 😊 What do you associate trading with? 🧐 For most of us it's exchanges and investments are primarily associated with big money. However, trading in the financial markets not only provides opportunities for earning but also for significant skill development and personal growth.
Here are the top 4 qualities that trading helps to develop:
1. Strategic thinking 🧠
Systematic approach and having a well-thought-out strategy distinguish a professional trader from a gambler. Seeing that Bitcoin is rising and immediately buying it – that's not how it works: You need to follow rules to earn not situatively, but in the long term. First and foremost, adhere to risk management, which determines 90% of success.
The main rules of risk management in trading that are useful in any endeavor:
In trading: Invest no more than 1-2% of your deposit in one trade.
In life: Don't put everything at stake for short-term gain: soberly assess what you can risk so you won't regret it later.
In trading: It's not so important how much you earn. It's more important how much you lose or don't lose.
In life: Weigh the pros and cons of every serious decision.
In trading: Diversify risks, invest in different instruments so that potential losses from one asset are offset by profits from another.
In life: Always have a plan B, and preferably plan C as well, to achieve your goal. Because if something can go wrong, it will.
In trading: Cut losses to a minimum, let profits grow.
In life: Don't waste energy, time, and resources on what doesn't bring benefits or doesn't work out. Strengthen what's strong: focus on what You do best.
2.Stress tolerance 🫨
Trading is not the easiest way to earn a living: you need to be mentally prepared for both profits and losses, not succumb to emotional impulses, and maintain self-control. Sometimes you have to " rise from the ashes " and start over from scratch. However, just like in life. Only 2-3% of traders have natural resilience: the rest need to develop it.
Here are some tips from me, which I have formulated from my own experience:
"To develop resilience, allow yourself to make mistakes, take on challenges, and solve complex problems. In doing so, you become stronger."
"Learn to be flexible, not confined to your internal boundaries. "
"Don't be afraid to be yourself, to develop internal freedom and individuality, so you can accept your mistakes without criticism. A successful trader is confident, free from societal judgment, and doesn't need to be perfect: they pursue their own goals, not dreams imposed by others."
3. Independence 🕊️
One of the main advantages of trading is freedom : there are no bosses above you, you manage your own time and resources, and you are solely responsible for your actions. You decide how, where, and how much to invest, what risks to take, and so on.
The ability to take responsibility for oneself, not blame others for one's mistakes, and be independent in decision-making is a quality that is valued not only in trading. Independent, self-aware individuals progress faster in their careers, build harmonious relationships, and establish large-scale businesses.
4. Developing 🎓
You can't learn trading once and for all: the market is not static, it's constantly changing. Yesterday, for example, only a few knew about cryptocurrencies, and today fortunes are made on them.
So don't miss the opportunity to learn more , interact with like-minded individuals. Thanks to the Trading View platform for providing such an opportunity. Here You can create your own charts, see what others think, and study educational content.
In conclusion , folks, trading is a unique simulator that develops discipline, forecasting skills, responsibility, independence, psychological resilience, and a drive for self-improvement. All You need is diligence, discipline, and a community of like-minded people! Wishing You success!😘
🫶If You found this post interesting, hit the like button or as it's called now (boost) and subscribe so You won't miss out!
Always sincerely yours, Kateryna💙💛
The Famous Monkey Story in Every Markets!The Famous Monkey Story in Every Market!
Once upon a time, a rich man from the city arrived in a village. He announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $100 each.
The villagers were thrilled, as there were hundreds of monkeys in a nearby forest. They caught the monkeys and brought them to the rich man, who paid $100 for every monkey they gave him. The villagers began making a living by capturing monkeys from the forest and selling them to the rich man.
Soon, the forest began to run out of monkeys that were easy to catch. Sensing this, the rich man offered $200 for each monkey. The villagers were ecstatic. They went back to the forest, set up traps, caught more monkeys, and brought them to the rich man.
A few days later, the rich man announced he would pay $300 per monkey. The villagers started climbing trees and risking their lives to catch monkeys and bring them to the rich man, who bought them all. Eventually, there were no monkeys left in the forest.
One day, the rich man announced he would like to buy more monkeys, this time for $800 each. The villagers couldn’t believe their luck. They desperately tried to catch more monkeys.
Meanwhile, the rich man said he had to return to the city for some business. Until he returned, his manager would handle transactions on his behalf.
Once the rich man left, the villagers were unhappy. They had been making quick and easy money from selling monkeys, but now the forest had no monkeys left.
This is when the manager of the rich man stepped in. He made an offer the villagers could not refuse. Pointing to all the caged monkeys, he told the villagers he would sell them for $400 each. They could sell them back to the rich man for $800 each when he returned.
The villagers were over the moon. Buy for $400 and sell for $800 in a few days—they had found the easiest way to double their money. They collected all their savings and even borrowed money. There were long queues, and within a few hours, almost all the monkeys were sold out.
Unfortunately, their happiness did not last long. The manager went missing the next day, and the rich man never returned. Many villagers kept the monkeys, hoping the rich man would come back. But soon, they lost hope and had to release the monkeys back into the forest, as feeding and caring for the noisy monkeys became extremely difficult.
This is exactly what happens when you buy low-quality companies in the stock market. There will be a low-priced stock that no one is interested in buying. A few rich men will suddenly start buying it. The stock price will rise because there are suddenly many buyers and very few sellers—a classic case of huge demand and no supply, like the monkeys in the forest.
The stock gets plenty of coverage on business channels and newspapers. These rich men will also use tricks like sending out bulk SMS messages, asking people to buy the shares for huge returns, and giving free tips. New and inexperienced investors, hoping to double or triple their investment, get lured in. Finally, the big players who bought the stock early when no one wanted it sell it back to inexperienced investors at high prices.
Don’t be greedy—there is no quick money in the stock market or in life. It takes time and effort to become wealthy, and there are no shortcuts.
Hit that like button if you like the story. Follow my profile for more content.
Divergence - asset price directionDivergence is the discrepancy between the direction of an asset's price and the readings of an indicator. There are three types of divergences: classical, extended, and hidden. The first two can be used to gauge market sentiment and to trade in the opposite direction. Hidden divergence, however, is more significant and can serve as a powerful supplementary factor in determining the price direction and opening positions.
The use of extended divergence is not necessary, as it rarely occurs and forms at equal highs or lows. In such cases, an indicator is not needed to gauge market sentiment; the chart itself will suffice.
Classical Divergence
Classical divergence indicates a potential trend reversal or the beginning of a correction. Bullish classical divergence is identified when a lower low (LL) forms on the chart while a higher low (HL) appears on the indicator.
The masses buy when classical bullish divergence appears, anticipating significant growth. An upward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for buying is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the decline will continue. Long positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bear market, classical bullish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction.
Bearish classical divergence is identified when a higher high (HH) forms on the chart while a lower high (LH) appears on the indicator.
The masses sell when classical bearish divergence appears, expecting a significant decline. A downward price movement may begin, but after short-term liquidity for selling is exhausted and the price rebalances, a reversal will occur, and the growth will continue. Short positions opened during the correction will become unprofitable. In a bull market, classical bearish divergence typically appears before the start of a correction.
The formation of multiple divergences is common. The masses will seize every opportunity to open their positions, leading to unprofitable outcomes. The number of divergences before the start of a correction is not limited. It is recommended to wait for the price to react after reaching the resistance zone. In the example above, the correction began after partially filling the imbalance on the 1D timeframe within the imbalance on the 1W timeframe.
Hidden Divergence
Hidden divergence serves as a confirmation of trend continuation.
Bullish hidden divergence is identified when a higher low (HL) forms on the chart and a lower low (LL) appears on the indicator.
In an uptrend, hidden bullish divergence may form before the continuation of growth, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions.
Bearish hidden divergence is identified when a lower high (LH) forms on the chart and a higher high (HH) appears on the indicator.
In a downtrend, hidden bearish divergence may form before the continuation of the decline, acting as a strong supplementary factor in determining the future price direction and considering positions.
Notes
- The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator is used to identify divergences.
- RSI is plotted without considering candle shadows.
- Divergence should be viewed as an additional factor to your analysis, not a standalone tool.
- Divergence below the chart will always be bullish, while divergence above the chart will always be bearish.
HINDALCO: METAL TO METTLE?Hey There, Welcome Back.
We are not big fans of industries that are on the commodity (Raw Material) side of the value chain, But for those who don't mind, Here is everything you should know about Hindalco.
- A support trendline has been pushing the price up
- An ascending triangle was formed with the recent 6M consolidation
- A breakout candle broke both the AT Range and crucial resistance zone
- The breakout came in as a Bullish engulfing that adds to the positives
- Overall for the last 15 months, the price has been sideways
- If you draw a resistance line from top, We saw a breakout of that too. Not the most reliable trendline, but it still adds to the analysis
- Price is nicely above 200EMA
- Previously the price failed to sustain the 500 mark. What will it do this time?
Have Insights or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
While you do that, how about a boost for some motivation🚀
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
Devyani: Looks like its Pizza Hut time!Hey there, Welcome back to a new case study.
Here is everything you need to know about NSE:DEVYANI :
- Devyani had a tepid journey so far since its IPO.
- The price stayed in a 50 point range for the last 20 months
- It defined support and resistance zones that were actually respected. Both bulls and bears have been trapped by the break of zones a.k.a. False breakout
- For the past 2 months, the price is consolidating at the resistance zone which is a huge plus
- The small bodies and big wicks show clear indecision. The volumes dried out during this phase. That usually happens when the price consolidates.
- It also has a 200 psychological level adding to its resistance
- Do give us a 🚀 for our efforts as it takes a lot of time to compile these pointers
- Stock is trading at 24.3 times its book value while the stock PE stands at 116
- A quick PE comparison at the same price point shows that the stock has gotten expensive (This is relevant if you invest with a long-term perspective. Trading is a game of momentum)
- A good close and sustenance above the resistance zone can bring momentum on the upside.
What do you think will happen next?
Have Requests, Insights, or Questions? Let us know in the comments below.👇
⚠️Disclaimer: We are not registered advisors. The views expressed here are merely personal opinions. Irrespective of the language used, Nothing mentioned here should be considered as advice or recommendation. Please consult with your financial advisors before making any investment decisions. Like everybody else, we too can be wrong at times ✌🏻
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series] When to trade for best bang for $$?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Okay, let's get started on today's topic. Knowing when to trade and when NOT to trade is very important. This is the "timing" element which is also a crucial part of trading. And, this is especially important if you are looking to trade on a lower timeframe!
Understanding the different trading sessions in the forex market and identifying the best times and days to trade can significantly improve trading success. Here's a breakdown of the major forex trading sessions and their characteristics:
Asian Session (Tokyo/Singapore/Hong Kong):
The Asian session begins with the opening of the Tokyo market, though the AUD and NZD starts trading earlier than it. It's known for lower volatility compared to other sessions, with currency pairs like USD/JPY and AUD/USD often experiencing increased activity.At times, if there's a important news release such as FED interest rate release or Non- farm payroll on a Friday. The preceding Asian Session could have "spill over" activity and increased in volatility in the FX market.
European Session (London):
The European session, centered around London, is considered the most active session (besides the US). It often sees high liquidity and volatility, making it ideal for day traders. Major currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and EUR/GBP typically exhibit significant movements during this session.
3. North American Session (New York):
The North American session overlaps with the end of the European session, creating a period of increased activity. Day traders loved the volatility during this period of time, more over key news releases could be catalyst for further volatility. It's characterized by liquidity from both European and American traders. Currency pairs involving the USD, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, and GBP/USD, are particularly active.
4. Best Times to Trade:
To be specific, the best times to trade forex are typically during the overlap of multiple trading sessions when liquidity and volatility are highest. This occurs during the overlap of the European and North American sessions, known as the "London-New York" overlap, which occurs from 8:00 AM to 12:00 PM EST. Another optimal period is during the overlap of the Asian and European sessions.
Best Days to Trade
While forex markets are open 24 hours a day, five days a week, certain days tend to offer more trading opportunities. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday are generally considered the best days to trade, as they typically see higher volatility and more significant price movements compared to Mondays and Fridays.
By understanding the characteristics of each trading session and identifying the optimal times and days to trade, you can enhance your trading strategies and capitalize on the most favorable market conditions.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]All you need for Order types in FX Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Understanding the various order types in forex trading is essential for navigating the market efficiently and executing trades effectively. Here's a concise overview of some common order types:
1. Market Order:
This order is executed immediately at the current market price. It is used when a trader wants to enter or exit a trade quickly.
More of for Day Trading - A trader might use market orders to quickly enter and exit positions based on real-time news events or technical signals.
Live example
> A trader sees a positive European's news release and expects a quick upward move in the EUR/USD pair. They use a market order to buy EUR/USD at the current price of 1.1950, aiming to sell it later in the day at a higher price based on the expected market reaction.
2. Limit Order:
A limit order allows traders to specify the price at which they want to enter or exit a trade. It's used to buy below the current market price or sell above it, ensuring entry or exit at a specific price level or better.
For example for Swing Trading - A trader might place a buy limit order at a support level, expecting the price to bounce back up, or a sell limit order at a resistance level, expecting the price to fall.
Live Example
> A trader identifies strong support for USD/JPY at 110.50 and places a buy limit order at this price, expecting the price to rebound. When the market price dips to 110.50, the order is executed, and the trader aims to sell at 111.50.
3. Stop Order(Stop-Loss Order):
A stop order becomes a market order once a specified price level is reached. It's commonly used to limit losses or protect profits by triggering a trade when the market moves in a certain direction.
This, in my opinion should be used as Risk Management for all traders - A trader sets a stop-loss order below the entry price for a long position or above the entry price for a short position to limit potential losses if the market moves against their position.
Live Example
> A trader buys GBP/USD at 1.3500, anticipating a rise. To protect against unexpected drops, they place a stop-loss order at 1.3450. If the price falls to 1.3450, the order executes, limiting the trader's loss to 50 pips.
4. Stop-Limit Order:
A stop-limit order combines features of both stop and limit orders. It triggers a limit order to buy or sell at a specified price once the stop price is reached, offering more control over entry and exit prices.
More of for Advanced Trading - A trader might use a stop-limit order to ensure they enter a position only if the price reaches a certain level but still want to control the maximum price they are willing to pay.
Live Example:
A trader wants to buy EUR/GBP only if it breaks above 0.8500 but not pay more than 0.8520. They place a stop-limit order with a stop price of 0.8500 and a limit price of 0.8520. If the price hits 0.8500, the order becomes a limit order, executing only if the price is 0.8520 or lower.
5. Trailing Stop Order: A trailing stop order is a dynamic stop-loss order that adjusts automatically as the market price moves in the trader's favor. It helps lock in profits while allowing for potential further gains.
For Trend Following - A trader might use a trailing stop order to lock in profits as the price moves in their favor, allowing the stop price to trail the market price and protect gains if the market reverses.
A trader buys USD/CAD at 1.3000 and sets a trailing stop order with a 50-pip trail. As the price rises to 1.3100, the trailing stop adjusts to 1.3050. If the price then falls to 1.3050, the order executes, locking in a 50-pip profit.
Hopefully these explanations on the various Trading Orders open you up to more strategies that you can applied in the market for you to trade more efficiently and profitably!
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
*********************************************************************
Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
*********************************************************************
Awaiting BO of Cup with Handle in $NSE:TCSNSE:TCS
Pattern details:
Up-trend before forming a Cup with a handle pattern
Cup with ~31% correction and length of cup 113 bars (791 days)
Handle length is 9 bars (64 days) and ~7.5% correction.
Manage to take support at 30 weeks EMA
Bullish RSI divergence at the bottom of the cup
Fundamental Notes:
Operating margin for the latest quarter was 26% (the highest in the last 12 quarters) and for FY 2024 - 24.6%
Net Profit QoQ 12,502 Cr. (Mar 24) vs 11,097 Cr. (Dec 23)
EPS Profit QoQ 34.37 (Mar 24) vs 30.56(Dec 23)
Net Profit YoY 46,099 Cr. (FY ending Mar 24) vs 42,303 Cr. (FY ending Mar 23)
EPS Profit YoY 115.19 (FY ending Mar 24) vs 126.88(FY ending Mar 24)
P/E: 29.9
ROCE: 64.3 %
ROE: 51.5 %
ROA: 32.5 %
PEG Ratio: 3.64
PS: Awaiting BO of Cup with handle pattern
Disc - invested, for educational purposes only
Educational Post: Trend and Valuations and Techno-Funda analysisWe have been told that market is always right and the price of the stock is always indicative of what is happening in the company, it’s balance sheets and its prospects for future. This cannot be true as the price of the stock or an index tends to trend. The trend can be upwards or the trend can be downward as seen in this chart. The trend can also be flat.
Now if the stock has tendency to ‘trend’ the trend will always have sentiments and sentiments will always try to overplay or underplay the prospect of the company. In case the trend is bullish the valuations will tend to be expensive. In case the trend is bearish there is always a possibility of undervaluing a company.
This is why an analyst needs to look at both Techincal and Fundamentals of a company. By looking at Fundamentals of the company you will understand the inherent strengths, it’s resilience ability to bounce back, ability to adapt and ability to grow. After having understood the and identified fundamentally strong company you can use technical analysis to enter the same or buy the stock with the help of Technical analysis. Thus you will be able to maximize the opportunity to make your money grow faster. Knowing Technicals will help you understand and establish when the trend is going to change, perhaps find when the stock is breaking out or breaking down.
When the trend is changing positively and the stock is breaking out you can invest, compound and stay invested and enjoy the bull run. When the trend is changing negatively you can perhaps book profit, partial profit or exit the stock before it breaks down completely.
It is said that either you learn or you die. My advice to investors whether you are a new investor or a seasoned player who has been investing for decades will be to keep yourself educated in terms of markets and its methodologies. Learning and unlearning should be a continuous process rather than depending on others and asking for tips to make money. If you buy and stay invested, you will make your money grow as much as the company or index grows. But if you can catch the trend which is a friend, catch the breakouts and breakdowns you will grow your money faster. Invest the most important commodity along with your money into the market, that is your time. To learn more about techno-Funda investing contact us and reap the benefit. Benjamin Franklin has rightly said,” Investment in knowledge pays the best returns.”
Disclaimer: Investment in stocks, derivatives and mutual funds is subject to market risks, please consult your investment advisor before taking financial decisions. The data, chart and other information provided above is for the purpose of analysis and is purely educational in nature. The names of the stocks or index levels of spot Nifty mentioned in the article are for the purpose of education and analysis only. Purpose of this article is educational. Please do not consider this as a recommendation of any sorts.
[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Margin? Lots? Spread? What are they?Hello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Today we are going to cover terms such as Margin, Lot size, Spread and What are they.
Forex trading is a dynamic and potentially lucrative endeavor, but it comes with its own set of terminology and jargon that can be intimidating for beginners. Understanding these terms is crucial for aspiring traders to navigate the forex market effectively and make informed decisions.
Margin
One of the fundamental concepts in forex trading is margin, which refers to the amount of money required to open and maintain a trading position. Margin allows traders to control larger positions with a relatively small amount of capital, amplifying both potential profits and losses. It's important for traders to understand margin requirements and manage their leverage carefully to avoid excessive risk.
Lot Size
Another key concept is lots, which represent the size of a trading position in forex. Standard lots typically consist of 100,000 units of the base currency, while mini lots and micro lots represent 10,000 and 1,000 units, respectively. Lot size determines the potential profit or loss of a trade, with larger lots leading to greater fluctuations in account equity. If you are more comfortable with smaller lot size, you can even go on to nano lots in 100 unit of currency.
Spread
Spread is another term commonly used in forex trading, referring to the difference between the bid and ask prices of a currency pair. The bid price is the price at which traders can sell a currency pair, while the ask price is the price at which they can buy it. The spread represents the cost of executing a trade and can vary depending on market conditions and liquidity.
There are different types of spreads encountered in forex trading, including fixed spreads and variable spreads. Fixed spreads remain constant regardless of market conditions, providing traders with certainty about trading costs. On the other hand, variable spreads fluctuate in response to market volatility, widening during times of high activity and narrowing during periods of low activity.
Understanding these trading terms and jargon is essential for beginners to develop a solid foundation in forex trading. By mastering concepts such as margin, lots, spread, and different types of spreads, aspiring traders can make more informed decisions and effectively manage their risk in the dynamic and fast-paced world of forex.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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[EDU-Bite Sized Mini Series]Understanding Forex Market StructureHello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
Let's begin with our topic today!
The forex market, being decentralized and over-the-counter (OTC), operates differently from traditional centralized exchanges. To navigate it effectively, traders need to comprehend its unique structure.
Market structure refers to the arrangement of price action within a given market, encompassing key elements such as trends, support and resistance levels, and price behavior.
1. Trends:
Trends are one of the fundamental aspects of market structure. They depict the overall direction of price movement over time. Traders often classify trends as bullish (upward), bearish (downward), or ranging (sideways). Understanding the prevailing trend helps traders align their strategies accordingly.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
Support and resistance levels (or known as supply and demand levels/zones) are areas where price tends to stall, reverse, or exhibit significant buying or selling pressures. These levels/areas form the building blocks of market structure and are crucial for identifying potential entry and exit points. Support represents levels where buying interest outweighs selling pressure, preventing prices from falling further. Conversely, resistance denotes areas where selling pressure surpasses buying interest, hindering further upward movement. If you have cluster of candle's tail in a area/levels, likely it would be supply/demand liquidity pocket
3. Price Behavior:
Price behavior within market structure provides valuable insights into market sentiment and participant dynamics. Patterns such as higher highs and higher lows in an uptrend, or lower highs and lower lows in a downtrend, signify the strength or weakness of a trend. Additionally, the manner in which price interacts with support and resistance levels can indicate potential reversals or continuations.
4. Market Phases:
Understanding different phases of the market, such as accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown, aids in deciphering market structure. Each phase reflects the behavior of market participants and their collective impact on price action. Recognizing these phases enables traders to anticipate potential shifts in market direction and adjust their strategies accordingly.
Conclusion:
In summary, comprehending forex market structure is essential for effective trading. By analyzing trends, identifying key support and resistance levels, observing price behavior, and recognizing market phases, traders can make informed decisions and navigate the forex market with confidence.
Do check out my recorded video (in trading ideas) for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
-- Get the right tools and an experienced Guide, you WILL navigate your way out of this "Dangerous Jungle"! --
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Disclaimers:
The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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Explaining Dow Theory - Does it Deliver Results?
Dow theory stands out as one of the most revered theories in the history of financial markets. Whether you're engaged in intraday trading, short-term trading, or long-term investment, understanding this theory is bound to help you formulate diverse strategies.
Originally crafted by Charles Dow in the late 1800s, Dow Theory, also known as Dow Jones Theory, has stood the test of time. Charles Dow, the founder of the Dow-Jones financial news service WSJ (Wall Street Journal) and Dow Jones and Company, developed this trading strategy.
Even after a century, Dow theory remains influential and is considered one of the most sophisticated studies in technical analysis.
I trust this will be beneficial to anyone involved in trading or investing in financial markets.
What is the essence of Dow Theory?
In an article published in the Wall Street Journal on January 31, 1901, Charles H. Dow likened the stock market to the ebb and flow of ocean tides.
He stated, "A person observing the rising tide and wishing to determine the precise moment of high tide places a stick in the sand at the points reached by the incoming waves until the stick reaches a position where the waves no longer reach it and eventually recede enough to indicate that the tide has turned." This approach proves effective in monitoring and predicting the rising tide of the stock market.
Dow believed that analyzing the current state of the stock market could offer insights into the current state of the economy.
Indeed, the stock market can serve as a valuable gauge for understanding the underlying reasons behind upward and downward trends in both the economy and individual stocks.
How Does the Dow Theory Operate?
The Dow Theory operates based on several principles, which include the following:
1. The Averages Account for Everything:
Market prices incorporate all known or unknown factors that may impact supply and demand. It is believed that the market reflects all available information, including information not yet public. This encompasses various events such as natural disasters like droughts, cyclones, floods, or earthquakes.
Major geopolitical occurrences, trade conflicts, domestic policies, elections, GDP growth, fluctuations in interest rates, and earnings forecasts or anticipations are all already factored into market prices. While unforeseen events may arise, they typically influence short-term trends while leaving the primary trend intact.
2.The Market Exhibits Three Trends:
a)The primary trend:
This trend can extend from one year to several years and represents the dominant movement of the market. It is commonly known as either a bull or bear market. The bullish primary uptrend sees higher highs followed by higher lows, while the bearish primary downtrend witnesses lower highs and lows.
The challenge lies in predicting when and where these primary trends will conclude. The goal of Dow Theory is to leverage known information rather than making speculative guesses about the unknown. By adhering to Dow Theory guidelines, one can identify and align with the primary trend.
b)The intermediate trend or secondary trend:
This trend typically lasts from 3 weeks to several months and is characterized by reactionary movements. In a bull market, these movements are viewed as corrections, whereas in a bear market, they are seen as rally attempts.
For instance, during a primary uptrend, a stock may retrace from its high to establish a low (known as an intermediate trend or correction). Conversely, in a primary downtrend, a stock might experience a temporary rebound after a prolonged decline (known as bear market rallies).
c)The minor trend or daily fluctuations:
This trend, lasting from several days to a few hours, is the least reliable and is often disregarded according to Dow Theory. Long-term investors should perceive daily fluctuations as part of the corrective process within intermediate trends or bear market rallies.
These fluctuations represent the noise in the market and can be susceptible to manipulation. While daily price action is important, its significance lies in the context of the broader market structure.
Analyzing daily price movements over several days or weeks can provide valuable insights when viewed alongside the larger market picture. While individual pieces of the structure may seem insignificant, they are integral to completing the overall picture.
3.Major Trends Comprise Three Phases:
Dow focused extensively on major trends, identifying three distinct phases within them: Accumulation, Public participation, and Distribution.
These phases occur cyclically and repeat over time.
a) Accumulation Phase:
This phase occurs when the market is in a bearish trend, characterized by negative sentiments and a lack of hope for an upcoming uptrend. For instance, we witnessed steep declines in mid-cap stocks in the Indian share market, with new lows being made frequently.
While many investors anticipate this trend to persist indefinitely, this is actually when significant investors, such as large fund houses and institutional investors, begin gradually accumulating these stocks.
This period is known as "smart money" investing for the long term. Despite ongoing selling pressure in the market, buyers are readily found.
b) Public Participation Phase:
During this phase, the market has already absorbed the negativity, with "smart money" investing. This marks the second stage of a primary bull market and typically sees the most significant rise in prices.
At this point, the majority of the public (retail investors) also considers joining in as prices rapidly increase. However, many are left behind due to the speed of the rallies and the upward trend in averages.
Traders and investors may experience regret for not participating in the rally. This phase follows improved business conditions and increased stock valuations.
c) Distribution Phase:
The third stage represents excess, eventually transitioning into the distribution phase. In this final stage, the public (retail investors) becomes fully engaged in the market, captivated by the bull market rally.
Some investors who previously felt left out may still seek opportunities to join the rally based on valuations.
However, this is when "smart money" begins to sell off shares at every high point. Meanwhile, the public attempts to buy at these levels, absorbing the selling volumes from large investors.
In the distribution phase, whenever prices attempt to rise, "smart money" unloads their holdings.
This marks the onset of a bear market, where sentiments turn negative, bankruptcy filings increase, and economic growth shifts.
During a bear market, frustration levels rise among retail investors as hope dwindles.
4.Confirmation Between Averages is Essential:
Dow used to say that unless both Industrial and Rail(transportation) Averages exceed a previous peak, there is no confirmation or continuation of a bull market.
Both the averages did not have to move simultaneously, but the quicker one followed another – the stronger the confirmation.
To put it differently, observe the image above, as you can see both the averages are in bull market, trending upward from Point A to C.
5.Confirmation of Trends Through Volume:
Volume serves as a metric indicating the amount of shares traded within a specific timeframe, aiding in trend and pattern analysis.
According to Dow theory, a stock's uptrend should be supported by high volume and exhibit low volume during corrections.
While volume data alone may not be comprehensive, integrating it with resistance and support levels can provide a more comprehensive understanding.
6.Trend Persistence Until Clear Reversal Signals:
Similar to Newton's first law of motion, which states that an object will remain at rest or in uniform motion unless acted upon by an external force, market trends are expected to persist until a significant external force, such as changes in business conditions, prompts a reversal.
Signs of trend reversals become apparent when impending changes in trend direction are observed.
7.Signal Recognition and Trend Identification:
A significant challenge in implementing the Dow theory is accurately identifying trend reversals. Adhering to the Dow theory requires not only assessing the overall market direction but also recognizing definitive signals of trend reversals.
A key technique employed in identifying trend reversals within the Dow theory is analyzing peaks and troughs, or highs and lows. Peaks represent the highest points in a market movement, while troughs signify the lowest points.
According to the Dow theory, markets do not move in a linear fashion but rather oscillate between highs (peaks) and lows (troughs), with overall market movements trending in a particular direction.
An upward trend in Dow theory consists of a series of progressively higher peaks and troughs, while a downward trend is characterized by progressively lower peaks and troughs.
8.Market Manipulation:
Charles Dow believed that manipulation of the primary trend was improbable, while short-term trading, including intraday movements and secondary movements, could be susceptible to manipulation.
Short-term movements, ranging from hours to weeks, may be influenced by factors such as large institutions, speculators, breaking news, or rumors, potentially leading to manipulation.
While individual securities may be manipulated, such as artificially driving up prices before reverting to the primary trend, manipulating the entire market is highly unlikely due to its vast size.
Why Dow Theory Is Not Foolproof:
Dow Theory is not a fail-safe method for outperforming the market, as it is not without its flaws. Critics argue that it lacks the depth and precision of a formal theory.
Conclusion:
Understanding the Dow Theory enables traders to identify hidden trends that may elude more seasoned investors, empowering them to make informed decisions about their positions.
The Dow theory aims to pinpoint the primary trend and capitalize on significant movements. Given the market's susceptibility to emotion and tendency for overreaction, the goal is to focus on identifying and following the prevailing trend.
What is token burning in crypto?Understanding Token Burning in Cryptocurrency: A Comprehensive Guide
What is Token Burning?
Token burning is a crucial strategy in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies, where assets lack real-world backing. Developers employ innovative approaches to maintain long-term price stability and incentivize investors. One such method is burning tokens, which involves removing coins from circulation. This action reduces the total supply, increasing scarcity, and potentially boosting the value of each remaining coin.
Why Do Projects Burn Tokens?
There are several reasons why cryptocurrency projects may choose to burn tokens:
Scarcity and Value Appreciation By reducing the supply of tokens, projects can create scarcity, leading to potential value appreciation for the remaining tokens. This can incentivize holding and discourage selling, contributing to price stability and growth.
Reward Mechanisms Some projects use token burning as a reward mechanism for users or participants. For example, platforms may burn tokens as part of a buyback program, where they purchase tokens from the market and then burn them, effectively reducing supply and rewarding holders.
Economic Alignment : Token burning can align economic incentives within a project's ecosystem. For instance, platforms may allocate a portion of transaction fees to token burning, ensuring that stakeholders benefit from increased token value as the supply decreases.
Coin Migrations : During blockchain upgrades or migrations, projects may burn old tokens that are being replaced by new tokens on a different blockchain. This process helps maintain continuity and security during transitions.
Examples of Token Burning:
Binance Coin (BNB): Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges, regularly conducts token burns of its native token, BNB. A portion of the trading fees collected on the Binance platform is used to buy back BNB from the market and subsequently burn the tokens, reducing the total supply over time.
Ethereum (ETH): Ethereum has proposed a shift to a proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism with Ethereum 2.0. As part of this transition, ETH holders can lock up their tokens in the new Ethereum Beacon Chain, effectively removing them from circulation and reducing supply, akin to token burning.
TRON (TRX): TRON Foundation has conducted multiple token burns of its native token, TRX, to manage supply and support token value. These burns are often announced publicly, providing transparency to the community.
Crypto Exchanges: Some cryptocurrency exchanges conduct token burns of their exchange tokens as part of periodic events or promotions. This practice can benefit token holders by reducing supply and potentially increasing token value.
Does burning impact token price?
Token burning can indirectly affect token value. Reducing circulating coins typically generates positive sentiment, potentially increasing asset popularity and value. While not the primary price driver, decreased supply can create scarcity and lift remaining token values. However, many factors influence token price, such as market conditions, sentiment, and project reputation.
In conclusion - Token burning remains a potent method for enhancing and stabilizing crypto asset value. Transparency and stability through burning incentivize investor trust, contributing to sustained price levels. Despite not guaranteeing immediate value hikes, burning offers long-term benefits, especially for projects with substantial user bases. Other advantages include community reinforcement and inflation control, making token burning a strategic practice in the cryptocurrency landscape.
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Mid-Cap Index is the index to watch out for.As we have discussed in previous educational messages. By selecting the indices that are looking strong we can get a range of stocks that can do well. From that basket of stocks you can then further scrutinize and select the stocks that might preform the best based on charts and fundamentals of the companies.
This week let us look at the Mid-Cap index that took a dramatic beating and is finding a support from where it can regain lost ground and even surpass the recent highs. Midcap Index made a high of 51342 before the descend began. The index has taken a support at the mid channel which also happens to be a trend line support. If the support or the low of Friday which was 48605 is not broken then we will see the comeback of Mid-cap stocks and index.
Resistance levels for the Mid-Cap index going forward will be 49545, 50132, 50425, 50802 and finally the previous high of 51342. The channel top seems to be near 52399 if the highs of 51342 are broken and sustained in future.
Support levels for the Mid-Cap index in case the support at 48605 is broken will be near 47952 or 46928 which seems to be the channel bottom. Choose wisely from the Mid-cap stock basket while keeping an eye on the levels mentioned here. Happy Investing.
High Volume Times to Trade / Part 1 🔣Hello traders welcome back to another Concept video. In this video, we detail some of the best times to trade the Eur/Usd Currency pair. This happens to be at Session opens. We go through the 3 Session opens and walkthrough examples of increasing volume ( Large candles). Session opens can provide a great catalyst for 1) a continuation of momentum of the preceding trend or 2) a dramatic reversal. The Euro and the U.S. Dollar are not open during the Asian session and so the candles are much smaller and the average volatility is much less. However, the same concept applies regarding the former.