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Economic Cycles

GBP/JPY Analysis: Cycle Completed and Expecting PullbackLooking at the 1-hour chart, GBP/JPY has completed a bullish cycle, reaching the key resistance at **196.054**, as indicated by the blue zone. The pair appears to be facing resistance, and I’m now expecting a pullback. 1. **Fibonacci Levels**: The pullback could target critical Fibonacci levels for a potential bounce. The **23.6% (195.537)** retracement level has already seen some action. However, deeper retracements toward **38.2% (195.217)** or even **50% (194.952)** could provide stronger buying opportunities before the next bullish leg. 2. **Support Zones**: There is solid support around **194.750** and **194.300**, which coincides with key Fibonacci levels and previous consolidation areas. These zones could act as strong demand areas, signaling potential entries for the next wave upward. 3. **MACD**: The MACD is showing weakening bullish momentum, which aligns with the anticipated pullback. If the momentum continues to weaken, it further strengthens the case for a short-term corrective move before continuing higher. 4. **Next Move**: I expect the price to dip towards the **50% (194.952)** or **61.8% (194.700)** Fibonacci level for a pullback, followed by a bullish reversal toward **196.054** and possibly beyond, depending on how the market reacts at these key zones. --- This analysis indicates a short-term correction before resuming the overall bullish trend. Monitoring how price interacts with the Fibonacci and support levels will be key for identifying strong entry points.
Long
by AEL_Education
1
Trade Recap: AUDUSD - LONG, 17/10/2024AU Bias Analysis: Price mitigated a 1W FVG and was deeply discounted on the 1D timeframe and although still trading in a counter-trend on the 4H, we saw a displacement higher which formed a 4H bullish order block and established a 1H bullish range. Price protracted lower into EPD and the 1H FVG where I waited for entry confirmation and executed. Grade: Valid What I did well or could've done better: - Executed before market close out of a little bit of FOMO as I was waiting for a meeting to begin. I should've Waited for the 15M candle to close before executing the position. - Regardless of not having a strong conviction in the trade, I executed a position which fit the plan but wasn't picture perfect. - Managed my positions well and closed manually once phase 1 target was achieved.
TVC:DXYLong
by The_Modern_Day_Trader
ARB: best zone🔔 ARBUSDT Signals: 🔴 Sell Signal: Entry: $0.5687 Take Profit 1: $0.5603 Take Profit 2: $0.5529 Take Profit 3: $0.5445 Stop Loss: $0.5768 📉 The price is showing rejection near the $0.5697 resistance level, making it a good spot to short. Look to secure profits gradually at lower levels. 🟢 Buy Signal: Entry: $0.5443 Take Profit 1: $0.5535 Take Profit 2: $0.5612 Take Profit 3: $0.5687 Stop Loss: $0.5310 📈 If the price holds around the buy zone, you can expect a bounce toward higher targets. Ensure your stop loss is set below $0.5310 to manage risk effectively.
by ahmadarz
What Is Money Flow In & Out of a Stock? And Why Should You Care?Professionals often speak of money flowing in or out of a stock, but how can that be if there is an equal number of buyers and sellers? It is because “Money Flow” comes from the balance of the lot sizes. There are four possible positions in any one stock: Buy Buy to Cover Sell Sell Short Each investor and trader in the stock has their own separate agenda. Each may come from a different Market Participant Group. There are now 9 Stock Market Participant Groups, starting from those who buy first, at the bottom of a new upward cycle: The giant Buy Side Institutions who invest Mutual and Pension Funds and/or create ETFs and other kinds of stock market derivatives. The Sell Side Institutions, aka the big banks and major market makers Wealthy Individual Investors Corporations Institutional/ Pro Traders High Frequency Traders (HFTs) Small Funds Individual Small-Lot Investors, Investment Groups and Individual Retail Traders Odd-Lot Investors Buyers are anticipating that the stock is going to move up. Their stock order types span the spectrum, for example: Market Orders, Limit Orders, Stop Orders. Buy to Cover Orders are placed by traders who sold short and are now taking profits. Those who are selling the stock are anticipating that the stock is going to move down. In an uptrending stock, this is profit-taking near the top of the run. It can also be similar in a downtrending stock because the seller is afraid that the stock is going to move down more, and they have been holding through what they thought was a short retracement. Most of these stock order types will be “Sell at Market” (SAM). Sell Short Traders are anticipating that the stock is going to move down, and they can place a variety of orders just like the buyers. Both Buyers and Sell Shorters are entering the trade, while Buy to Covers and Sellers are exiting the trade. It is the mix of these different types of buying and selling coupled with the kind of investor or trader and the size of their share lots that causes money to flow in or out of a stock. If the buyers are mostly large lots and the sellers are mostly small lots, who is in control? The buyers purchasing large lots . This is because, at some point, there will not be enough small-lot sellers, and those who are Selling Short will turn and start Buying to Cover, creating more of a shortage of sellers. Consequently, this will put more pressure on the buy side. There are always latecomers to a stock run, and they are usually small-lot buyers. As the stock moves up in price, more of the small-lot buyers will step in, pushing the price up even further. Most small-lot buyers typically use a “Buy at Market” Order, which is the worst kind to use to control the entry price. As the stock moves up further in price, the last of the Short Sellers will panic and Buy to Cover, causing the stock to gap up or jump even higher. This then triggers the large-lot buyers to start selling for profit. As profit-taking begins, the stock dips in price. This causes the odd-lot buyer, who is the last in the market participant cycle to buy, to rush into the stock and buy because they have been told to “Buy the Dip.” By now, the news media has been talking about this stock and its great run. Consequently, the odd-lot uninformed investor finds the dip irresistible and buys on pure emotion without any analysis of the stock. This causes the final gap up and exhaustion pattern. Now, while all of those odd-lot latecomers are buying, who is selling to balance the equation? Market Makers are Selling Short and the Smart Money, who were the first to enter, are selling to take profits. Suddenly, the large lots are now shifting to the downside, and what happens? The control switches to the sellers who are moving larger lots. Now, money is flowing out of the stock, yet the price may go up briefly before a downtrend develops. Large lots are usually wiser investors and traders who know more than the other investors and traders. So the giant Buy Side Institutions investing Mutual and Pension Funds, who have access to information often not yet available to Individual Investors and Retail Traders, are called the Smart Money. It can be assumed that the smaller the lot size, the less the investor or trader knows and understands about the market. As smaller lots move in, a shift of power occurs due to the large lots moving to the sell side, and thus money shifts to flowing out of the stock. As the stock collapses and reaches a price or equilibrium near a base or bottom, those smaller lots who held through the collapse reach an emotional point of extreme pain of loss and begin to sell in panic. In response, the Smart Money and Market Makers switch roles again, Buying to Cover their profitable shorts and buying to hold as the stock moves up again. Summary: Every time you take a position in a stock, there are also three other positions in that same stock. You need to be aware of each of these and make sure that you are with the right group. Most of the time, traders who are having problems with their trades are simply trading with the wrong group. It is important, then, to learn about today's stock market structure and what I call the "Cycle of Market Participants." When traders can trade with the flow of the Smart Money, they have a decided advantage.
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Incredibly bullish ETHUSD. Upper price target estimate $18400Ethereum is very oversold despite the foundation implementing many positive changes to the transaction system. Layer 2 solutions have made Ethereum very useful and as far as price appreciation, I do believe that the Ethereum Foundation is providing solutions to problems that the community has been discussing and is the best altcoin in the space when it comes to innovation and technological advancements from the start. Please don't take this as an accurate estimate of upper price target, but rather, what I personally believe to become a realistic estimate for how I FEEL and where price could go in the future.
INDEX:ETHUSDLong
by Kornholio
My analysis on us100 (what else right XD)My analysis is based on the consolidation on the higher timeframe. i want price to come lower, maybe take liquidity or go right away from OB and then push to the upside. The fundamental part is really making sense with this scenario. I mean big rate cut just happened and high potential for another cut. The cpi and inflation came back worse, but i think this shouldn't make big impact. Am i alone on this one? Share your thoughts with me, i will really apreciate it.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Filip_Kozak
1
The bull market in Mediterranean rice bowlsWhile many investors spend weeks or even months searching for the next big AI stock, a company from a different sector has quietly taken the spotlight since the start of the year. With Mediterranean rice bowls as their signature offering, CAVA has surged to a market value of $15 billion and has become one of the top-performing stocks of the year up 200% since its IPO and even more than that since the year began. Here are some quick facts about CAVA and the industry: Market Value: CAVA is now worth $15 billion. Stock Performance: CAVA has been one of the top-performing stocks in 2024 despite tech stocks remaining the preferred sector. Fast-Casual Health: The fast-casual healthy dining sector is rapidly expanding, crushing companies like McDonald's as consumer preference changes. CAVA's Niche: Mediterranean cuisine, with its focus on fresh ingredients, has resonated with health-conscious consumers. How much further can this go? Expansion Plans: CAVA is aggressively expanding its footprint, opening new locations across the U.S. So what's the lesson here? Well, I am not buying or selling this. I am late and missed it! The point of this story is that it can pay to look in other markets when everyone is focused on a specific sector. The biggest wins can come from unexpected places—like a Mediterranean rice bowl.
NYSE:CAVA
by scheplick
2