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Fed stance and BOE rate cut expectations impact bond yields and After the latest monetary policy meeting, financial markets reacted to statements from US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the Bank of England (BoE). These reactions led to large changes in bond yields and the value of the dollar. After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, markets tilted toward a cautious interpretation of Powell's remarks, even though the Fed maintained its hawkish stance. Despite recognition of the US's strong economic performance, concerns about tightening financial conditions and questions about the reliability of scatterplots have led to suggestions that US interest rates may have peaked. There is. This sentiment has led to lower bond yields and a decline in the value of the dollar. In contrast, three out of nine Monetary Policy Committee members at the BoE meeting supported a 25 basis point rate hike. However, rising UK unemployment and a forecast of zero growth in 2024 pose major challenges, with GBP/USD moving above previous support/resistance levels as the dollar weakens and US yields fall. Rose.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by AstronautPioneer
DXY Daily Analysis - Fall to 200EMA 105.000 Level Then Bounce?DXY has been rejected at the bull channel support, falling to 105.000 before closing last week. There is now a gap to the 200EMA, which given the rejection bar, seems like a probable target if you're already short. I would caution going full-on short just yet until we close below the 200EMA. If we get a bounce at the 200EMA, I would consider a long back up to the 30EMA at 106.000. Key Points: 1. Fell out of Bull Channel 2. Rejection off of the Bull Channel at the 107.000 area 3. There is a gap down to the 200EMA 4. RSI Room to Move Up As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXY
by TraderEngineering
DXY: USD exchange rate today (November 1); The USD reversed and The US economy is resilient, as evidenced by new data released on October 31. This is the most recent indication that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) can sustain high interest rates for an extended length of time. As a result, given the substantial rise in wages during the third quarter, US labor costs rose dramatically. After increasing by 1.0% between April and June, the employment expenditure index (ECI) increased by 1.1% in the most recent quarter. According to additional data, US housing prices increased in August for the third straight month, up 5.6% over the same time last year and 4.6% from July. The Fed started a two-day policy meeting on October 31 and was predicted to maintain interest rates at that time.
TVC:DXYLong
by TrategySherpa
DXY Daily Chart Analysis - Will DXY Return to the Bull Channel?DXY finally broke out of the bull channel it has been in since July of this year. A strong bull response off of the 30EMA brought the price back to the bull channel. We are now waiting to see if the price can re-enter the channel, or if it fails and confirms a breakout to the downside. Key Points: 1. Bear breakout of the Bull Channel, waiting for confirmation 2. Strong bull response on 30EMA below the channel 3. Price is currently testing the channel 4. RSI is near 50 and is not supportive of either direction 5. Before trading DXY, wait to see if the price confirms or denies a breakout Since we are in a bull trend, the probability of a confirmed breakout to the downside is less than the trend continuing to the upside. I think it is best to wait for a Daily close within the bull channel before entering a long or a bear candle closing near its low below the 30EMA before shorting. The bias ought to remain bull until we have confirmation of a break to the downside. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXYLong
by TraderEngineering
DXY - DXY trading trend todayIn a year when the US economy beat all recession forecasts, budget ferocity has nearly doubled, and weak budget guidance has been found to be almost more lethal than interstate budget wars. faction in Washington. The government decimated $2.02 billion in the fiscal year through September, after adjusting to remove the impact of President Joe Biden's student debt forgiveness program, which was struck down by the Supreme Court. This level is 1.02 USD rate higher than the previous year. The extent of this increase could lead to financial statements that economists, politicians and agencies have previously warned against credit warnings. That also explains why long-term bond yields are hitting their highest level since 2007, with the government needing to issue more bonds to offset the blip. Yields on 10-year notes exceeded 5% on Monday. Republican lawmakers have faulted President Biden for out-of-control spending, even though they are so firm on how to handle the budget that they have not yet agreed to elect a new speaker of the House of Representatives. . Meanwhile, spending needs continue to grow, with the White House calling for $106 billion in emergency funding for Israel, Ukraine and the US-Mexico border. Yet for all the politics of spending, the main source of growing evil in 2023 is actually revenue. Much of the rest is due to the spoils of battle, another force that also causes fierce debate among the zodiac signs. According to JPMorgan, the fire as a percentage of GDP increase represents the weakest three years since 1950. But fiscal 2023 sees strong economic growth, with more than 3 million people adding jobs jobs at My.
TVC:DXYLong
by NicoTradingMaster
DXY short term Shorts to 105.200SCENARIO 1 - This is my bias for the dollar index (DXY) which gives us extra confluence for my two GBPUSD & EURUSD temporary longs that I have recently posted. As they have a negative correlation between them it gives our trade ideas more confirmation. Im currently expecting price to react as it's in a 8hr supply zone and distribute to eventually sell off towards 105.200 or even lower possibly to 104.700. Once price reaches there we will then expect the dollar to push back up again from those POI's below ( 6hr or 4hr demand zone.) My confluences for dollar (DXY) shorts are as follows: - Price changed character to the downside on the higher time frame as well as broke structure indicating the shift in trend has become bearish. - Price entered an 8hr supply zone that has caused this break of structure to the downside. - Momentum has slowed down (a good sign that price wants to go back down.) -Wyckoff distribution taking place to liquidate any previous buyers that was in profit to then allow us to enter the best possible sell position down towards the designated target. - A few Imbalances have been left below that it must come back and fill. - Lots of liquidity below as well to target in the form of untouched Asia lows and engineering liquidity. P.S. Obviously as this is not the only possible scenario, price could also go higher and react off the 6hr supply zone above current price and mitigate that extreme zone to then sell off from there. Either way we are anticipating a drop to follow the bearish trend that has been formed.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by Hassan_fx
1
Dollar Show Signs of Flat Price Action until Year-End Here is an important update regarding the current state of the dollar and its potential price action for the remainder of the year. It is crucial to approach the subject with caution and consider the implications for your investment decisions. Over the past few months, the dollar has exhibited signs of flat price movement, showing limited volatility and a lack of clear direction. This trend is likely to persist until the end of the year, as various economic factors and market uncertainties continue to influence its performance. While it is tempting to engage in active investing in the Dollar Index (DXY) during such periods, it is important to exercise prudence and carefully evaluate the potential risks involved. The lack of significant movement in the dollar can make it challenging to achieve substantial returns within a short timeframe. Considering these circumstances, I encourage you to pause your DXY investing activities and reassess your strategies accordingly. It is crucial to remain vigilant and closely monitor market developments, as sudden shifts in global economic dynamics or geopolitical events could potentially disrupt the current flat price action. As traders, it is essential to adapt to the prevailing market conditions and adjust our investment approaches accordingly. This period of relative stability in the dollar can provide an opportunity to diversify our portfolios and explore alternative investment options that may offer better potential returns. I urge you to consider this cautious approach and take the necessary time to evaluate your investment strategies. By doing so, you can ensure that your capital is deployed wisely and in alignment with the prevailing market dynamics. Thank you for your attention, and I wish you continued success in your trading endeavors.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
Unveiling the Bearish Momentum: DXY📈 Technical Analysis of DXY: Key Support Break and Bearish Momentum In this technical analysis, we explore the recent price movements of the DXY (US Dollar Index) on an 8-hour chart, with a focus on the short direction. Discover the key support break, formation of lower highs, and projected path for the DXY. 🔑 Title: Unveiling the Bearish Momentum: DXY Technical Analysis and Projected Path 1. Key Highlights: Key Support Level Test: DXY tested the critical support level at 105.262 on October 12th, which historically influences price movements. 2. Formation of Lower Highs: After the support test, DXY formed a series of lower highs, suggesting a potential bearish bias as each subsequent high is lower than the previous one. 3. Break of Swing Low: On October 18th, DXY breached the swing low at 105.65, indicating a possible continuation of the bearish momentum and raising the likelihood of breaking the key support level at 105.262 in the upcoming week. 4. Projected Path: Analysis indicates a potential further drop in DXY, with a projected decline towards the support line at 105.08 in the next two days. A subsequent rebound towards the key level of 105.66 may occur, forming a lower high and confirming the continuation of the downtrend towards the next key level at 104.30. 5. USD Currency Pairs Analysis: Among USD currency pairs, EURUSD exhibits the strongest upward momentum, followed by GBPUSD, presenting potential risk-to-reward opportunities for swing trades in long positions. 6. Gogo Trend Scalper Indicator🔍: Gogo Trend Scalper, our trend indicator, shows the moving average (MA) in red, currently turning downwards, further supporting the bearish outlook for DXY and suggesting a potential decline in the index. 💡 Stay tuned and closely monitor the technical analysis of DXY. The break of key support, formation of lower highs, and confirmation of downward momentum indicated by our trend indicator suggest a potential bearish bias. Adapt your strategies accordingly and make informed trading decisions based on the analysis provided. 🔔Remember, market conditions are subject to change, so stay updated and be prepared to adjust your approach as needed. 🔔Don't forget to like and share to friends this post to stay informed about future technical analysis and Forex trading insights. Let's navigate the Forex market together and make informed trading decisions.
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by ICT_Trader_SB
DXY - Fed Chairman: 'Inflation is still too high'Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that although inflation has cooled, the Fed remains committed to achieving its 2% target. In a speech in New York on October 19, Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that tightening policy had brought inflation back under control, but stressed that the Fed must remain cautious in pursuing its goals. . “Inflation remains too high. A few months of positive statistics are just the beginning of giving us confidence that inflation will return to target. But it remains to be seen how long these positive numbers will last, or how inflation will fare in the coming quarters. I don't know yet whether that will happen." He reiterated that Fed officials are "unanimously committed to bringing inflation down to 2%." The speech raises questions about the Fed's future policy after a series of consecutive interest rate hikes. The Fed has raised interest rates 11 times since March 2022, and the current interest rate is 5.25%. This is the highest level in 22 years. However, Chairman Powell believes that current interest rates are not too high. "Are the guidelines too strict? I don't think so," he said, but acknowledged that "rising interest rates are making things difficult for everyone." The Fed also highlighted recent good progress on its goals. The inflation rate as of September was 3.7%, a significant drop from over 9% in the middle of last year. "The latest figures show progress on both our goals of maximum employment and price stability. The economy remains in very good shape." But the comments came on the same day as reports showed the number of people applying for unemployment benefits last week was the lowest since the start of the year. This indicates that the labor market is tightening, which could put upward pressure on inflation. In recent days, a number of Fed officials have said the Fed may temporarily pause rate hikes. Even the most pro-tightening members expect the Fed to wait for further economic impact from its last rate hike. The market now expects the Fed to halt rate hikes, at least for now. The question is when will they start cutting interest rates? “If the environment remains risky and uncertain, we will be more cautious. The Fed will make decisions based on upcoming data, prospects and risks,” Powell said.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
All eyes are on the Fed's keynote speech Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver a major policy speech on October 19th. The aim is to convince the market that the relevant central banks will continue to keep the inflation regime in check, but perhaps not, and that there will be some "easing" going forward. The first monetary policy plan was submitted to the New York Economic Club as the U.S. economy faces many pressing issues. Inflation has improved recently, but U.S. Treasury yields are rising, sending mixed signals about the direction of monetary policy. While most markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates on hold, they still expect Powell to confirm and clarify officials' views on the current situation and long-term trends. Luke Tilley, chief economist at financial services firm Wilmington Trust, said Chief Executive Officer Powell continues to talk about inflation risks given the strength of the economy and unexpected consumer spending in the third quarter. I predict that. Essentially, chief economist Tilley expects Powell's message to be divided into three parts. First, the Fed had to raise rates quickly, and they did. Next, the Fed needs to set a maximum interest rate, which is at the heart of the debate. And finally, we need to figure out how long interest rates need to stay at this high level to bring inflation down to our 2% target level.
TVC:DXYLong
by TheLeader_WOLF
DXY 4HR Analysis - No Sign of a Reversal! Bull Channel ContinuesDXY refused to fall below 4HR 200EMA support last week and had a fantastic bounce to the upside. This bounce solidified the current bull channel we are in, with no sign of a reversal in sight. There is currently a gap between 106.672 and 109.000, which is the next weekly resistance zone noted from July 2022. How do we trade this? Probability shows that breakouts are roughly 10% of price action on the charts. Until we see a bear breakout of this channel, we should remain long. Trade Strategies: Swinging For a swing trade, long it if the price action is in the bottom 20% of this channel and place your stop loss a few pips below the 4HR 200EMA. This gives you at least a 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio where you can take partial or complete profits (depending on your strategy). I placed an example long in this chart, an opportunity that has already passed. Scalping You can also scalp your way to victory, but this requires you to lower your reward and increase your risk to gain probability of a profit. The proper stop of the 4HR chart is below the 200EMA or at least, below the bull channel bottom by a handful of PIPs. The further away you enter from that stop, the smaller your position size should be such that your total loss is the same as your 1:2 Risk/Reward ratio. The Math If we're applying the 2% rule in trading, meaning you cannot lose more than 2% of your total account equity on a single trade and your total equity is $10,000, then your maximum allowed loss is $200. Your position size should always be relative to your maximum loss which is determined by where your stop loss is placed. This means a scalp at a 2:1 Risk/Reward ratio provides a profit of $100 at risk of losing $200. In a bull channel, the probability is on your side. If you took 10 trades scalping and won 8 out of 10 trades using this math, you would be up $400. Using the Swing strategy, your probability is lower at the bottom of the channel, but your potential reward is greater, and your risk is lower($200 Reward and $100 Risk). If you won 5 out of 10 trades, you would be up $500. As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades, and I hope this information was helpful. Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
TVC:DXYLong
by TraderEngineering
DXY still shows no signs of breaking out of the trendlineThere has been little change in the market since the minutes of the Fed's monetary policy meeting were released in September. This highlighted concerns about U.S. economic growth and caused the Fed to become cautious about raising interest rates. Dallas Fed President Rory Logan and Fed Director Christopher Waller have argued that rising U.S. Treasury yields in recent months could prompt the Fed to hold off on raising interest rates. Waller said on October 11 that higher market interest rates could help the Fed control inflation and allow policymakers to consider whether further rate hikes are necessary. "Overall, the minutes indicate that Fed officials are increasingly concerned about recession risks to the U.S. economy," said Carl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Kopay in Toronto. The recent weakness in the US dollar is due to a decline in US Treasury yields, with bond prices rising due to the Fed's "loose" stance on future interest rate hikes. Investors are now awaiting the release of the main inflation report today, October 12th, for further guidance on the future direction of interest rates. Additionally, the market is closely monitoring the conflict between Israel and the Islamic organization Hamas. Conversely, the euro rose to $1.0634, its highest level since September 25th. Meanwhile, the pound rose to a three-week high of $1.2337. Dutch central bank board member Klaas Nott said on October 11 that the ECB has made "important progress" in bringing inflation down to its target level, but there is still a long way to go and rules out the possibility of inflation rising. He said he could not. Interest rates may rise further in the future.
TVC:DXYShort
by TheLeader_WOLF