S&P500 v USD since 2008. Cheap dollar guarantees stock expansionThis is a cross chart analysis between the S&P500 index (SPX) and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) since the 2008 Housing Crisis. Ahead of widely anticipated Fed rate cut next month, it is useful to see how the Dollar has impacted from its perspective the stock market on a multi-year basis.
As you can see, the DXY has been trading within a Channel Up since the 2009 Housing Crisis bottom. At the moment it is under the Resistance of the Lower Highs trend-line (dashed) and a rate cut should apply even stronger selling pressure and keep it under. There is still some wayt to go until it hits the bottom of the Channel Up again.
We believe that the stock market is at the point where it finishes the recovery phase (blue Arc) and will enter the expansion phase (green Channel Up), at the beginning of next year. As a result, a rate cut and as a matter of fact a series of rate cuts by the Fed, will do wonders on S&P500, giving investors steady long-term opportunities to buy low and sell high within a strictured Channel.
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Dxysignals
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DXY is starting a rebound to at least 106.000The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a 19-month Channel Up pattern and this week (as well as on August 05), it almost reached its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This is a Double Bottom formation so far, which is a bullish pattern, that was also formed on the 1D RSI.
The last time the RSI completed this formation, we've had a bottom that gave way to a strong Bullish Leg. Most rallies/ declines within this pattern have been between a 4.00% to 5.00% range.
As a result, we turn bullish on DXY now, targeting 106.00, which is just below a potential +4.00% rise and almost on the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up.
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US dollar market trendYesterday, the deputy governor of the Bank of Japan said that "the market is unstable and there will be no interest rate hikes". This is a relatively "dovish" statement. In addition, the upcoming September interest rate cut conveys a good opportunity to enter the market.
That is, the US dollar will still fall. Although the market is narrow today, the US dollar continued to rise at the end of the trading day, but it should not last long.
Personal analysis: looking for high points and shorting
DXY New Week MovePair : DXY Index
Description :
DXY Index is following Symmetrical Triangle as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame and It has breakout the Lower Trend Line. According to Elliot Waves theory it has Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " ABC " Corrective Waves. Rejecting from Strong Support Zone and Fibonacci Level - 61.80%
US economic recovery, good news for the global economyDXY: The USD index last week maintained an accumulation status around the 104.10-104.50 range and has not broken out yet. It is likely that the market will need information from this week's FOMC to have clearer trends. In the short term, it is expected that today, DXY will continue to accumulate around this price range, so you can consider buying USD when DXY retests 104.10.
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On July 25, the US Department of Commerce released a report showing that the world's largest economy grew by 2.8% in the period from April to June 2024 (twice as high as the previous quarter).
This growth is considered solid, as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) inflation control measures seem to be effective.
Inflation, one of the key factors influencing the Fed’s monetary policy, is showing signs of cooling. The annual inflation rate fell to 3.2% in June, down from a peak of 9.1% last year. This development is believed to be the result of the Fed’s continuous interest rate hikes over the past year.
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade Idea In this video, we analyze the DXY Dollar Index. It's clear that the DXY has been exhibiting bearish momentum recently. However, it is currently range-bound, and we need to wait for the market to reveal its direction. My strategy involves monitoring the 15-minute chart for signs of a breakout. I am leaning bearish, but this will be confirmed later today as we approach the London and NY sessions. A breakout could present a trade opportunity, as described in the video.
It's important to note that these observations are speculative and not a definitive forecast. Confirming specific price movements is crucial before considering any buying or selling decisions, as elaborated in the video. The video provides a comprehensive analysis of the current trend, market structure, and price dynamics. Remember, this educational content is designed to enhance understanding and does not guarantee outcomes. Trading inherently involves substantial risks, so employing robust risk management techniques is essential.
DXY Dollar Index Technical Analysis and Trade Idea👉🔍 We can observe that DXY has been in a bearish trend recently. However, it has experienced a significant move into a key support zone. In the video, we discuss market structure, price action, and the trend. I'm expecting to see a potential reaction and an opportunity to go long if the price action unfolds as described in the video. As always, this is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. 📊✅
DXY declined when Biden withdrew from the White HouseDXY: The USD index in today's session has reacted to a decrease and correction right after the information last weekend. Showing a bearish outlook in the context of Biden's withdrawal from the white house. The scenario in today's trading session is that DXY is expected to continue to weaken. Ace, please consider selling with USD
US President Joe Biden introduced the stop of his re-election marketing campaign on July 21 (US time) and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris to update him because the Democratic presidential candidate.
In the assertion on
This week, he's scheduled to present a public speech.
Being your president is the greatest honor of my life. Although I intend to run for re-election, I believe that for the best interests of my party and the country, I should stop and only focus on completing my presidential duties," Mr. Biden wrote.
A few minutes after the above message, he wrote another message supporting Ms. Harris. "I chose Ms. Kamala Harris as my vice presidential candidate in the 2020 race. And it was the best decision I made," he continued.
DXY Buy opportunity approaching at the bottom of this Channel.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the May 01 High, which is a technical Bearish Leg inside the long-term Channel Up structure. The price is already very close to the bottom of the Channel Down and with the previous Bearish Leg completing a -2.36% decline, we believe this is the right time to buy again on the short-term.
The last mini-rally completed a +2.14% rise so, expecting a similar development, we will target 105.800 (top of the Channel Up on a +2.14% Bullish Leg).
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DXY rebounded after news about USDPlease follow my analysis DXY: Yesterday's USD index re-tested the bottom area then rebounded. On the H4 frame, a set of reversal candles appeared, but this morning's session has a decreasing GAP, so in the short term, it is expected that DXY will test this support zone again and then may increase again. Ace can consider buying with USD today
DXY - testing the bottom, rebounding on news daysDXY: Yesterday's USD index re-tested the bottom area then rebounded. On the H4 frame, a set of reversal candles appeared, but this morning's session has a decreasing GAP, so in the short term, it is expected that DXY will test this support zone again and then may increase again. Ace can consider buying with USD today
Selling pressure on USD is increasing and in the current contextDXY: USD index today is maintaining below 105.20.
After consecutive drops beyond the support level, the USD is in a continuing downtrend
Investors should pay attention to protect profits with BUY positionsShows that selling pressure on USD is increasing and in the current context, information about the US is getting worse, causing the USD to weaken. Regarding technical factors. Because it has broken out of the uptrend zone, it is expected that the market will have a slight retest of the trend and then continue to decline. You can consider maintaining a sell watch with USD today.
DXY: there will be a correction todayDXY: The USD index yesterday fell sharply, penetrating the support zone and creating a head and shoulders pattern that can be clearly observed in the H1 frame in the context of negative information focusing on the US yesterday. And the FOMC meeting somewhat supported the USD's adjustment, but not significantly. Regarding technical factors this morning, DXY tested the neckline again, so it is likely that USD will continue to decline today. Consider maintaining a short position with USD.