Will the stock market decline if DXY holds this Support?This is a simple yet very informative study showing a comparison of Dow Jones against DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Since early 2015 the DXY has been ranging (wide range but still range) and especially after 2017 it established a clear Resistance (103.800 - 103.000) and Support (88.200 - 88.900) Zone. Every time it hit the Resistance and got rejected (Jan 2017, March 2020), Dow Jones started rising aggressively. Similarly when DXY hit the Support Zone (Feb 2018), Dow Jones (though volatile) made a new Low.
The DXY is currently very close to that Support Zone. Will another rebound here kick-start selling on the stock market? That chart certainly shows that. However we have to consider the (much longer) Cycles of DXY on a decade span (I posted that chart earlier today), which suggest that there are increased chances of breaking this Support.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will DXY hold this Support and cause selling on stocks or the opposite? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Dxysignals
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX We haven't seen the cyclical bottom yetFollowing the stimulus news this week, there is a lot of talk around the USD and whether it will rise or fall as a result of the rescue package. I decided that it may be the perfect time to look at the (much) larger picture to see where we stand. This is a simple study on the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) on the 1M time-frame, representing its Cycles in the span of decades.
As you see it is the perfect example of Sine Waves. There are very clear Cycle Tops and Bottoms since the 1960s. The Tops appear to be on average 190 months (almost 16 years), while the Bottoms 175 on avg so far, but based on the since waves they may follow a +20 bar sequence. As a result, while the next top for the DXY (which I have to add at this point that the sequence is Lower Highs) may be around 2032/33, the next Bottom (based on the waves) should be around 2025. That means that we are still a long way of seeing the cyclical bottom and the best course of action is to sell every rally.
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DXY- Correction underway?A great volatility day for USD Index yesterday and, after opening with a gap up, the index fell in the afternoon and from a technical point of view, just filled the gap.
Now it seems like we have a strong base on 90 and slightly under and I expect a correction to follow.
Pairs that I have in focus for selling are EurUsd, NzdUsd and AudUsd
DXY- Important breakAs I said before, I'm very bearish USD, and till now things worked that way.
Now, after breaking down the flag formation, we have another important break for USD index: the horizontal support and previous low.
In my opinion rallies on USD should be sold and we can soon have new local highs for EurUsd, AudUsd, GbpUsd and NzdUsd
DXY- USD shows no life at allLast week I said that I expect a new low from USD Index and my opinion doesn't change.
After a short-lived rebound from 90.60 support, DXY opened last night with a gap and dropped again, not being able at least to close the hole gap.
This tells me that a break under the support area could be just around the corner and DXY can have a new leg down even under 90 psychological support.
Under these conditions, EurUsd is my first choice to buy.
DXY- Could it go under 90.50?Two weeks ago I said that I expect 92 support to fall , and now we have this break, and Dollar index is trading at 90.65 at the time of writing. More important is that DXY is now just above another support situated at 90.50.
If we look closely at the chart we can see that after finding support at 90.50, USD Index made a short term double bottom that I've spoken about and although we have a correction at that point this was very short-lived and the index reversed and broke under the flag pattern support.
I expect USD to remain weak and, indeed, we can have a break under 90.50 support. The next support is around 89 zone and, in this situation, EurUsd can be the best bet for rising and challenge 1.25
DXY Bearish until ChristmasPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price is approaching the 4H MA50, which has been rejecting every upside attempt since November 04. Also the RSI is at the top of its Channel Down and the MACD is repeating the November 10 - 13 sequence.
Target: 90.100 (-1.30% as per the November fractal).
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DXY- Double bottom on H1, correction underway?As I correctly anticipated, DXY broke under 92 important support and that lead to a 1.5% loss for the index, a strong break above 1.2 for EurUsd and GbpUsd reaching 1.35.
Now the index found support in 90.50 area and has formed a small double bottom visible on H1 chart. The neckline of the pattern is broken and we can expect a correction to 91.50 zone resistance.
I will look to sell rallies for EurUsd, GbpUsd, AudUsd and NzdUsd in this context.
Dollar Devaluation - DO NOT Be FooledThis is an update to my last Dollar chart a few months ago. Once again, I've been bearish on the dollar for some time now, we see it has broken below support and is starting to fall. We got the break and close below the 93 support level which could lead to a free fall for the dollar. Now, we don't know the exact time frame for this all to happen, and when you zoom into the smaller time frame chart, there are support levels represented by the second line at the 95.50 level that could cause the price to bounce temporarily. Overall, the strength we've seen in Stocks, Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin shows the weakness of the Dollar, and I believe this will continue going into 2021. It's possible we see a bounce, but unless we see a large push back above the 100 level we should expect further weakness from the Dollar.
DXY Trading PlanPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Sell once the price approaches the 4H MA50, which has been acting as the Resistance since November 04.
Target: 91.220 (a -0.75% decline from a projected 4H MA50 contact point).
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DXY (USINDEX) buying from Support Level !!!!US index is reached @ very very strong level and now we are buying this on dips with big lots because its a major support zone and now
as we can see US INDEX if hit our SL THEN IT WILL DROP MORE AND WE WILL send new charts for selling this pair but right now we are buying
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DXY to break supportAs I said over the weekend, I expect 92 support to fall, and if we look closely at the price action in USD major pairs we can see that each and every dollar's attempt to strengthen was sold by bears.
Considering 3 months of consolidation above this support and the fact that the index is pushing and pressing down I expect this break not only to happen but for USD to spiral down in the medium term.
My favorite pairs for buying in this context are: EurUsd, GbpUsd and AudUsd
DXY- A break under 92 means disaster for USD (weekly outlook)For 3 months now, DXY is trading in a range between 92 zone support and 94.50 zone resistance.
Although the 92 support has not been broken yet, USD seems very weak with all rallies being very well caped by bears.
I believe that this support will fall eventually and USD will spiral down to 88 support.
In this context AUD, NZD, GBP, and EUR should be bought against the dollar and I'm looking for a medium-term gain of around 5% for these pairs
DXY Lacks powerFor now, DXY is trading above 92 important support, and although this is an important support USD looks very weak overall.
The price seems to press on this support and we can assist a break soon.
That being said USD is bearish on medium-term and only a break and sustained buying power above 93 would shift things in bulls favor.
Dollar Index- To see range trading92 zone proved to be strong support for DXY and last week the price turned from this zone putting in a nice bullish engulfing from here.
The price corrected the recent up move and now looks ready to challenge the range resistance at around 94.
In this context i will look for selling opportunities in EurUsd, AudUsd, NzdUsd and GbpUsd