Dxylong
DXY - Dollar under pressureWith the anticipation of the inflation data that will be released on Thursday, the dollar is still under many selling pressures, but now it has reached pivotal areas, breaking it may lead it to lower levels, but if the data comes in its favour, it may regain its strength again.
Now the price is near a daily bullish trend and near buying areas (demand), as well as it is on the edge of the lowest descending channel on the 4 hour frame.
Everything will be revealed on Thursday, so please be careful in your trading until Thursday.
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DXY very bullish ! growth can continue up to 120The Fed had on Wednesday had hiked the upper target for fed funds to 4.0%, its highest since the Great Financial Crisis, while Chair Jerome Powell had said that interest rates will have to go higher than previously thought, even if the size of individual hikes from now on is likely to be smaller than the 75 basis points seen at the last four meetings. If we can break through the previous high, the growth will continue very strongly.
The aftermath of the feds fourth 75bps hike; DXY and DOW JONESIt's now official; the US Federal Reserve has enacted its fourth consecutive 75-basis-points rate hike, bringing its benchmark rate to the 3.75% - 4.00% range, which is the highest it has been since January of 2008.
The markets reacted quite mildly to the rate hike at first, due to it aligning with exactly what the market was expecting for the past few weeks. Expectations strengthened for another 75-basis-points (typically an outsized hike) after September's hotter-than-expected inflation reading that arrived in October.
The mild reaction soon gave way to volatility, as US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell began to deliver his address that customarily follows an interest rate decision. Investors were intensely curious about this address as it is an opportunity to glean information about why the decision was made and how the bank is thinking about future hikes. What they were specifically looking out for included statements concerning the intensity and pace of rate hikes moving forward, concerns held for the state of the US economy, and responses to recent data drops.
What we learned from Powell’s address
Stocks actually spiked at the onset of Powell’s address, buts quickly gave up gains when it became apparent that Powell is not seriously considering a slowdown in the pace of its rate hikes just yet, like that which has been seen in Canada and Australia. It will be interesting to see where US stocks head in November after recording huge bumps in October, which in part has been attributed to an expectation that the Fed might slow its pace. For one, The Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded its best month since 1976, climbing more than 13%. Powell noted that he expects to start talking about slowing the pace with his colleges within the next two meetings. The special note that it could be within the next ‘two’ meetings is what lent it a veil of non-urgency.
Perhaps the most important note of the address, Powell confirmed that the bank has revised up its expectation for peak interest rates from 4.6% to 5.0% after digesting the data that had been released in October. This note has helped put the US dollar index (DXY) back on track to its 20-year high of 114.00 recorded in September. Much like stocks, the DXY’s reaction reversed its direction drastically after the market caught wind of the Feds revised terminal rate. Before the reversal, the DXY was on its way down to 110.00, before spiking to almost 112.00.
US dollar index (DXY): Rising Treasury yields boost the dollarThe federal funds rate was increased by 75 basis points at the FOMC meeting in November to a range of 3.75 and 4%, as widely expected.
The press conference of Chairman Jerome Powell was more hawkish than imagined. The Fed Chair remarked that there is still work to be done in terms of rate hikes and that the peak of interest rates would be higher than previously thought, probably referring to the median FOMC predictions made in September (4.6%).
The statement also indicated that monetary policy will remain restrictive for some time, and Powell stated that stopping rate hikes is too far away at this point.
In addition, the Chair reaffirmed that the cost of undertightening is higher than that of overtightening. This is due to the fact that the Fed still does not see any meaningful progress on inflation, while the labour market continues to be exceptionally tight.
As a result of Powell's comments, the market has revised its forecast for Fed rate hikes for next year higher, to an expected 5.1%. US 2-year yields spiked to 4.7%, updating fresh highs and reaching July 2007 levels.
Throughout the year, the US dollar DXY index has been increasingly associated with US short-term yields (2-year), with the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient standing at a very high level of 0.91.
US 2-year rates may increase further after the November FOMC meeting to reflect elevated market expectations for the Fed's terminal interest rate. This keeps the dollar on a bullish trend for longer. A rise in 2-year yields up to the 5% mark, would likely imply a rally in the DXY index up to 115 levels.
The speed of the move will hinge on Friday's US non-farm payrolls data and next week's US CPI data. Higher-than-anticipated numbers for the US employment report and inflation will solidify the Fed's hawkish stance and accelerate the dollar's advance.
EU shorts before longsLast week have us a signal to sell EU, AU, NU. This was evident when we saw DXY trading higher ask have also shared on this platform.
I think our shorts are coming to an end before going long.
Lower timeframes will be closely monitored for potential trend reversal.
Have a great trading week.
dxy #1this is a turning point for dxy it did create a lower high last week close also opened with a gap
also has a lot of trend line liquidity resting below and the external trend is still down
now on the flip side there is equal highs and also dxy could push up to the 112 area which would be a nice discounted move
DXY Chart Analysis....
In this situation DXY chart long term create bullish bat pattern and short term
create Elliotte wave pattern. So, market need to seem buy correction @ 111.300 and 111.460
resistance level. If breakout @ 110.222 support zone, then market sell up to 109.700 support.
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Touching bullish targets is more likely!On the daily time frame, the indicator number is based on the valid Fibonacci retracement percentage of 50%. Meanwhile, the index has hit the short-term trend line and the medium-term trend line at the same time and is now returning from there. The creation of a doji candle in the mentioned time frame and at the end of the downtrend is a confirmation of this return. In this case and with this analysis, we expect that the first target range will be touched upward and if the index crosses this range, the second target will also be touched upwards.