DXY short to mid-term analysis (Update)This post is an update to my original post few weeks ago where I presented the case for DXY bottoming out. Following is the link to that, please go through it to understand the context.
On Thursday DXY closed above 34( Red )EMA, on the daily, as mentioned in previous post, it a sign of strength and possible breakout, and we did breakout the following day and closed much higher.
I expect this breakout to hold, and the rally should continue for a while.
We can come down and flirt with 13( Green ) and 21( Blue ) EMA's again, this happens until 13 and 21 EMA's start moving up and crosses above 34 EMA, when that happens and sustains for few days, that's the confirmation of bull run and that's the most likely scenario.
Fundamentally also, we have reasons for Dollar gaining strength in short to midterm, mostly because of Hawkish Fed and no intention of stopping rate hikes in the coming months, with each upcoming rate hike DXY should keep pushing higher. We also have indications of a stronger than originally expected US economy and decreasing unemployment as contributing factors adding to DXY's strength.
Now talking about targets, The Boxes in my chart are very strong S/R zones going back months and years. So, the next zone of mid-size resistance for DXY is 103 price level, where I expect some retrace, then the big one is 104 which may cause a pause in the rally and some consolidation for big retrace.
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Dxyforecast
Still looking to short DollarThe dollar is experiencing fundamental weakness due to its data, with yuan transactions surpassing it for the first time. The GDP was worse than anticipated, causing concerns of an impending recession. Today's core PCE data, a crucial inflation indicator, could potentially alter the trajectory of the dollar, therefore, be cautious.
From a technical standpoint, I am searching for a trend rejection.
DXY - U.S Dollar Index LongDXY is in the support zone that used to be a resistance level from January 2017 and March 2020. a resistance level for 3 years. If the 100 -102 support doesn't get broken we are now looking at our new support and the U.S Dollar index can give us another bullish scenario. The new resistance would be September 2022 High 114-115.
DXY mid to long term analysisLong term I am Bearish on DXY, with De-Dollarization happening in the world especially BRICS countries preparing to create a new currency to use for trade amongst them and 24 other nations joining them. So, we will see the dollar lose its value over the next few years.
But in the short to midterm (Few Months to a year) I am seeing a nice bottom form for DXY.
I have drawn two rounded curves in purple where I see rounded double bottom formations which in my experience are immensely powerful Market structure for explosive move to the upside a move to 109 is expected because of this structure.
I have also drawn two smaller Rounded bottoms in yellow and Red which I see playing out to the upside in the short-term A move to 104 is expected if these structures continue to develop.
PA is also reacting to the PRZ 1.414 of butterfly, if DXY comes down to play the red rounded bottom, we can see a strong move up from 1.618 extension of the butterfly as a Type 2 return on the harmonic.
We also have the 3 key EMAs (13 21 and 34) on daily start to curve to the upside, these are initial signs of Trend reversal. Right now, PA is above 21 and 13, but below 34, As long as 34 EMA is not broken through on Daily Time Frame 21 and 13 EMA act as weak support and 34 EMA will continue to act as resistance, and we will be in a down trend. Once the 34 EMA is claimed on Daily and held for few days, we get a confirmation for the uptrend and then 21 and 13 EMA will start to act as strong support along with 34 EMA.
With FOMC coming up, if the news is favorable for Dollar, we can break thorough 34 EMA and confirm the trend reversal.
I have over 6 years of trading and investing experience and have learned a lot in this time. I like to share what I have learned and if you like my content and would like to learn from my experience hit like and follow me for getting notified on my trade, market projections and several upcoming tutorials on technical analysis and several technical Indicators. you can also leave a comment and let me know if you want me to analyze any specific asset or want to learn about any specific topic in the world of Technical Analysis. I Will do my best to create a post for it.
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Bearish 3 Drive Pattern for DXYgreetings fellas, us dollar index in bearish 3 drive pattern and want to take sell side liquidity once again and reach to 99.84 zone.
btw, in the second drive we seen 3 drive in 4h timeframe, maybe in third drive we will seen this pattern again but daily timeframe.
after that i expect bullish spike candle to reach TVC:DXY 103.4.
DXYDXY is ready to BUY. there is important price for it and i think 102.00 is very important. if tonight the price will close upper than 102.00, monthly and weekly candles shape show us good signal, in daily and 4H first top line will break, and all the reasons show us powerful signal to BUY. It can change all of markets.
DXY #DXY $DXY Just Look at the respect to my ScribblesJust look at these reactions my scribbles are getting. These lines have not been moved or adjusted these are the same trend lines I gave you weeks ago.
If it isn't broke.
KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid)
Everyone else telling you only about the old line and the breakout of it and or giving the new lines now. I gave you this as a second R line trend above the 1st one everyone was posting, AND most importantly i gave it to you weeks ago.
DXY: Event influence!Hello traders, I have some USD related information to share with you ♥
US Dollar's position as the primary global reserve currency is being challenged
The US Dollar's share of the global market has decreased from 71 percent to 59 percent over the last two decades and could shrink even further in the future. The primary victim in this scenario is the United States, as currency usage in global trade is a zero-sum game. Each time a Yuan, real, or Rupee is exchanged on the global market, a Dollar is not. If credible alternatives gain steam, the dominance of America in the global market will be compromised.
DXY- Great chances for a riseAfter the low back in February, 100.50 held strongly, and also yesterday, after a drop in that zone, bulls took control leaving a bullish engulfing on our daily chart.
At the time of writing the index is trading at 101.39 and there are good chances of a rise above 103.
I'm bullish as long as 100.50 is intact
DXY may have reversed!!Currency Pair : DXY
Possible direction : Bullish
Technical Analysis : Price just has opened with gap and slowly turning into a bullish market after forming a middle man in the previous session. From monthly price has just bounced from the monthly support zone.
Fundamental : Positive ADP Non-Farm Employment change data has given a strong boost on USD
Possible trade recommendation : Bearish as per chart sketch
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DXY Index Next Possible MovePair : DXY Index
Description :
Divergence
EXP Fiat as an Corrective Pattern in Long Time Frame
Completed " 1234 " Impulsive Wave
Break of Structure
Symmetrical Triangle
Completed " ABC " Correction in Short Time Frame
Bullish Channel as Correction in STF
Rejection from Upper Trendline or Fibonacci Level ( 78.60% - 100% )