DXY: The US dollar faces the risk of being sold off?Investors sold the dollar late last week at the fastest pace in a year, hoping for lower interest rates next year after the Federal Reserve ends its policy rate cut. significantly raise interest rates.
State Street, one of the world's largest asset managers, said the asset manager was prepared to sell 1.6% of its dollar positions this month, the largest monthly outflow since last November. The company said. In particular, investors have enjoyed "significant" selling every day since the release of the US employment report on November 3rd.
"The developments over the past two weeks suggest that demand for the dollar is undergoing a rapid reassessment," said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street. He added that the recent sell-off in the dollar signals an end to the "extraordinary dollar glut."
``Investors are thinking, ``If interest rates are really cut, there is no need to hold so many dollars,'' the expert said.
Experts predict that the sell-off by asset managers may be just the beginning of a long-term trend among investors to reduce their exposure to US assets, with the US dollar weakening in November. This was the worst monthly performance of the year.
According to the Financial Times, a weaker U.S. dollar is beneficial for emerging countries because it helps them repay dollar-denominated loans and potentially draws investors back to developing countries. This comes after a huge sale of foreign currency-denominated bonds this year.
Dxyanalysis
DXY → Extra losses in the pipelineTVC:DXY extends the leg lower for the fourth session in a row on turnaround Tuesday.
Further weakness in the index is expected to challenge the key support at 103.00 sooner rather than later. The loss of this region exposes the weekly low of 102.93 (August 30) ahead of another round level at 102.00.
In the meantime, while below the key 200-day SMA (103.60), the outlook for the index is expected to remain bearish.
USD Weakens; Currencies ResilientThe Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against a basket of key currencies, extended its decline to 103.40 (from 103.75) during the holiday trading session.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperformed, causing USD/CAD to drop by 0.7% to 1.3615, hitting a one-month low. Canada's year-on-year retail sales for September surged to 2.7%, beating expectations of 2.0%.
The British Pound (GBP/USD) rebounded to 1.2605 (from 1.2540), while the Euro (EUR/USD) rose to 1.0942 (from 1.0905). Germany's IFO Business Climate increased to 87.3 in November, beating forecasts but slightly lower than the previous reading of 86.9.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) extended gains to 0.6585 from 0.6560, nearing its three-month high. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD) climbed to 0.6085 (from 0.6045) on strong sentiment from Australia and risk appetite.
Against the Japanese Yen, the U.S. Dollar (USD/JPY) dipped to 149.45 from 149.65 in subdued trading. The greenback closed lower against Asian and emerging market currencies.
USD/CNH (Dollar-Offshore Chinese Yuan) dropped to 7.1475 from 7.1515, and USD/THB (Dollar-Thai Baht) ended nearly unchanged at 35.40 (from 35.43). USD/SGD fell to 1.3405 from 1.3420.
Global bond yields rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reaching 4.47% (from 4.40%). The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased to 4.95% (from 4.90%). Germany's 10-year Bund yield rose by 3 basis points to 2.64%, and Japan's 10-year JGB yield spiked to 0.76% (from 0.71%).
The U.S. stock markets closed stable on Thanksgiving, with the Dow rising 0.27% to 35,383 (from 35,287), and the S&P decreasing to 4,557 (from 4,560). Global equity markets showed mixed performance.
The VIX, measuring U.S. stock market volatility, dropped to its lowest close since January 2020, reaching 12.46, a 2.7% decrease. Increasing expectations suggest that central bank tightening measures have concluded, contributing to calmer stock markets.
A deeper drop emerges below 103.00TVC:DXY retreats for the third consecutive session and approaches the area of three-month lows near 103.00 at the beginning of the week.
In case sellers push harder, the breakdown of the November low of 103.17 should leave the door open to extra losses in the near term. That said, the loss of the weekly low of 102.93 (August 30) could put a potential visit to the psychological 100.00 mark back on the radar.
In the meantime, while below the key 200-day SMA at 103.61, the outlook for the index is expected to remain bearish.
US Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals MarketUS Dollar Faces Supports: Potential Double Bottom Signals Market Dynamics
Major currency pairs continue their range-bound movement on Monday as investors refrain from making significant directional bets. The market sentiment is cautious due to escalating concerns, with investors eyeing key inflation data releases from both the United States (US) and the Eurozone later in the week.
Early Monday, Asian markets saw declines, influenced by the People’s Bank of China's (PBOC) lack of detailed information on stimulus measures for private firms and rising respiratory illnesses in China. The ongoing decrease in China’s Industrial Profits, coupled with uncertainty surrounding major central banks' interest rate outlooks, further contributed to the subdued market mood.
The return of US traders after the Thanksgiving holiday break is awaited, and the US S&P 500 futures, considered a risk barometer, indicate a 0.30% decline on the day.
Despite the cautious market sentiment, the US Dollar experiences selling pressure as it hovers around the 103.200 zone. Notably, there's potential for a Double Bottom formation, suggesting a strong recovery for the USD. The existence of a Fair Value Gap (FVG) around $105.000 becomes noteworthy, serving as a potential target point in the event of a market reversal.
Our Preference
Above 102.600 look for further upside with 104.2150 & 105.000 as targets.
DXY is Ready to Go UP🚀🏃♂️The DXY index is moving in the 🟢 Support zone($103.78_$102.93) 🟢 near the SMA(200) and 1 00_SMA(Weekly) .
🕯If we want to look at the last three daily candles of the DXY index from the candlestick pattern, we can see the reversal patterns of Hammer and Morning Star very well.
💡Also, another sign that shows us the end of the downward trend of the DXY index is the Falling Wedge Pattern in the RSI indicator .👇
🔔I expect the DXY index to trend higher in the coming days and attack the 🔴Resistance zone($105.88_$104.630)🔴 again.
U.S.Dollar Currency Index ( DXYUSD ) Analyze, Daily frame⏰.
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DXY (Dollar) Shorts from 103.300 down to 102.200This Weeks DXY bias is to expect another major move to the downside to continue its bearish trend that it has now set. To capitalise on this movement we will wait for a minor pull back up to a near unmitigated supply, (which will be the 9hr) to look for entries to get into this selling trend.
From this we will look for our usual wyckoff distribution to play out on the lower time frame and a CHOCH inside our POI to the enter our sell positions. I would love to see the asian high get swept as well because it will increase our confluence for a stronger sell bias. Overall I am temporarily bearish for the dollar and I expect price to keep dropping for the rest of this year.
Confluences for DXY (dollar) sells are as follows:
- Price is temprorarily bearish due to the perpetual BOS to the downside.
- There's still trend liquidity left to the downside that hasn't been taken.
- For price to react off next there is a demand zone below on the 4hr region.
- There is a clean supply 9hr that caused an impulsive to the downside.
- By the candle stick anatomy bearish candles are very strong holding lots of momentum.
P.S. I would ideally wait for this structure to break first before seeing the correction back up to the 9hr however, if price goes that low I see it continuing going down to reach our next demand. Which we will then anticipate a potential short term buy back up.
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A counter trend bounce for DXY first and then the fall.In my previous update on DXY, I had expressed that wave 'z' had truncated on Nov 1. and that should mean the beginning of the fall for DXY.
Well from the truncated 'z' top the DXY has now fallen in a 5-wave pattern(Elliot wave theory).
While this in longer term suggests more downside for the dollar index(93$ according to me), in the short term one must remember that a five-wave fall/rise is always followed by a corrective move.
So, in this case the DXY should attempt to move a bit higher from current levels in what would be a counter trend move that could abruptly end close to the previous 4th wave high(104.557)(typical price behavior according to Elliot wave theory) or go up further till the 61.8% retracement(105.588) of the fall. Both these scenarios are labeled as Case 'A' and Case 'B' respectively on the chart.
Upon completing the either one of these scenarios wave iii to the downside will begin in DXY.
Note*- This chart is for educational purpose only. Please do your own research/analysis before taking up any financial positions.
DXY (Dollar index) Longs to 104.000My bias for the dollar is bullish, as I am expecting a major pull back from this key level of demand that we have marked out on the daily time frame. As you can tell by the price action, bearish pressure is now getting exhausted so, we will be looking out for a wyckoff accumulation on the lower time frame to give us more confluence that this move will take place. As I don't personally trade the dollar, I will be using as it a sign to sell my other pairs.
As we know already if the dollar becomes bullish we will expect bearish pressure for pairs like GU, EU and gold, visa versa. In addition to this, the daily demand holds a lot of significance as it has broken structure to the upside and swept liquidity therefore, we can expect a nice reaction from this AOI to potentially mitigate the supply above or fill the imbalances that have been left.
My confluences for DXY$ Longs are as follows:
- Overall DXY market is still long term bullish even though we temporarily bearish.
- Price mitigated a strong level of demand on the (daily Time frame) that caused a BOS to the upside.
- Price tapped in very slowly and the candle sticks have less volume, indicating that the bearish pressure is now exhausted and price is now looking like it wants to reverse.
- Wyckoff accumulation has started to form very gradually on the lower timeframe.
- Theres lots of imbalances above to target as well as supply zones to mitigate in order for price to continue in its bearish trend.
- Price has also taken out a key level of engineering liquidity on the way down approaching the zone, so now price has enough liquidity to move the market back up.
P.S. I am still bearish but as price has tapped in a key level, my thoughts are to buy back up to the nearest supply in order for us to follow the dollar trend downwards. I will be waiting on what market does on Monday as I will be looking for imminent Sells for EU, GU and XAUUSD.
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A deeper pullback is seen below 104.00TVC:DXY reverses two consecutive daily advances and resumes the downward bias on Friday.
In case bears regain control, the breakdown of the November low of 103.98 (November 14-15) should pave the way for a quick test of the critical 200-day SMA at 103.61 prior to the weekly low of 102.96 (August 30).
In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.
DXY Preparing for Another Leg Down! Grab This Next Short Entry!DXY confirmed its breakout from the bull channel to the downside and is currently showing some minor support at the 200EMA. I would expect the price gap from here to the 9EMA at 105.000 to close followed by another leg down. We have to be careful to not get caught in a 2 legged trap, which is also a possible outcome at this level.
How do we trade this?
Wait for a sell signal at the 9EMA with a strong bear bar closing on or near its low before entering a short.
Key Points
1. 200EMA Showing Some Support
2. Two Pushes down, Third Probable
3. Gap to fill to the 9EMA around 105.000.
4. Look for another Short entry at 105.000 with a sell signal
You are solely responsible for your trades, trade at your own risk!
Let us know what you think in the comment section below!
Another drop to 104.00 remains in storeTVC:DXY manages to pick up extra pace and extends further the bounce off multi-week lows around 104.00 on Thursday.
In case bears regain the upper hand, the breakdown of the November low of 103.98 (November 14-15) should pave the way for a quick test of the critical 200-day SMA at 103.61 prior to the weekly low of 102.96 (August 30).
In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.
DXY → Extra losses look likely below 104.00TVC:DXY attempts a mild recovery to the 104.30/40 band after bottoming out just below the 104.00 support earlier in the session on Wednesday.
The breakdown of the November low of 103.98 (November 14-15) should pave the way for a quick test of the critical 200-day SMA at 103.60 prior to the weekly low of 102.96 (August 30).
In the meantime, while above the key 200-day SMA, today at 103.60, the outlook for the index is expected to remain constructive.