DOW JONES ahead of an huge rally based on the 2017 fractal.More than a year ago (September 13 2023, see chart below), we posted a long-term fractal comparison for Dow Jones (DJI) between the 2022 - 2025 and 2015 - 2018 periods:
As you can see the 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross eventually placed the index on a huge rally (even though it had to go lower for a month) that hit Target 1 at 42000. The 1W RSI and MACD sequences in 2024 however evolved in such a how that we have to re-adjust the patterns in order to fit the 2017 price action.
The charts now display very symmetric fractals and it appears that we are now on a short-term consolidation (circle) after a +50% rise from the September 2022 bottom. In November 2017, that was the final consolidation before the most aggressive rally of the Bull Cycle that made Dow top and then pull back to test its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we move our final target even higher at 49300, which represents a +71% rise from the 2022 bottom, similar to the rise that priced the January 2018 High.
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Dowjones
DOW JONES 1hour Channel Up on its bottom. Buy.Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up and the price hit its bottom today.
By doing so it almost tested the 1hour MA200, which is holding since October 9th.
Also it completed a decline identical in % terms with the first one of the pattern.
This is a strong buy opportunity. Buy and target 43,450 (top of the Channel Up).
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XAU/USD : $2700 Reached, What's Next ? (READ THE CAPTION)Upon reviewing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that gold has finally managed to break above the $2700 level, just as we anticipated in our previous analysis. Currently, it is consolidating above this level. Note that the $2714 level is a key supply zone (based on important Fibonacci ratios) for gold, which is why the price reacted to it. However, at the moment, gold is trading around $2711, and I still expect further growth from gold unless I see otherwise on the chart, in which case I’ll update you. The next short-term targets for gold are $2727 and $2743.7. Keep an eye on how the price reacts to these levels. Also, the most important support zone for gold is between $2673 and $2688.7.
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US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Analysis Alert!🚨 US30 (Dow Jones) Weekly Analysis Alert! 🚨
📊 Resistance Zone: 43,500 - 44,000
📉 Reversal Point: 43,300
🎯 Target: 40,300
US30 is showing signs of a **potential fake breakout** near the 43,500 - 44,000 resistance level. A rejection here could lead to a **downward move**, with the next target around 40,300. Watch closely for a reversal near 43,300!
⏳ Keep your eyes on the RSI and momentum indicators for confirmation! This could be a **great shorting opportunity** if the price reverses.
#Trading #US30 #DowJones #StockMarket #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingOpportunities #TraderLife #StockMarketAnalysis #MarketTrends #InvestSmart
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S&P500, NASDAQ, & DOW JONES Weekly Outlook Oct 21The 3 Indices are in position to move higher. I am looking for buys setups, as my bias is bullish. My first targets are the PWHs, and potentially ATHs.
I've included some notes on how I project bullish targets above ATH's. Tell me what you think of it in the comments section.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
if you use technical analysis you owe a lot to these individualsTHE HISTORY AND ORIGIN OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
I am a firm believer that as investors/traders we need to know the historic and major events that have occurred in this magnificent field of ours that have shaped how it is today.
Today i want to shed light of knowledge on the history/origin of technical analysis as this is a widely used concept that is used by majority of traders/investors to analyse/predict future market moves through the evaluation of historic market data especially price, volume and implied volatility and many have made a living and good returns on the financial markets using the various technical analysis tools and concepts but not knowing where it all started.
many do believe that technical analysis was initiated by Charles Dow in the 1800s but this is not true as evidence of Technical Analysis dates far back as to the 17th century from basic and underdeveloped methods as compared to the more evolved ones used in Morden-day times.
Let's get straight into it:
17th CENTURY
-- 1. the Dutch east India Company traders
The Dutch East India Company which was formed in the Dutch Republic, Amsterdam in 1602 which is known to be the first publicly traded company, trading mainly in spices, Indigo and cotton, which gave way to the first financial market the Amsterdam Stock Exchange. Here is when the earliest forms of technical analysis came to show when the Dutch traders would graph record/keep track of the various price fluctuations of their stock but in a basic form.
2. José or Joseph Penso de la Vega
still in the 17th century a Spanish diamond merchant, philosopher and poet best known also as Joseph de la Vega, born 1650 in Spain also considered one of the earliest financial market expert published a marvellous financial read called "Confusion De Confusiones" which provided detailed awareness of how the Dutch financial market participants operated focusing on their illogical behaviour and price patterns they used further more hinting on technical analysis with his descriptions of technical analysis concepts such as puts, calls and pools which are still relevant in Morden-day technical analysis and how he used these in the Amsterdam Stock Exchange.
18th CENTURY
Homma Munehisa
Homma Munehisa, born 1724 in Sakata, Japan a Japanese rice merchant trading in Dōjima Rice Exchange developed what i consider the most popular form of technical analysis which proved high standards of acceptance as traders/investors world-wide still use it in modern-day times, he initiated the Japanese Candlestick/ K-Line (primarily known as Sakata Charts), which is a price chart that's represents the open, close, high and low prices of a security for a specific time period which was introduced in his book "THE FOUNTAIN OF GOLD- THE THREE MONKEY RECORD OF MONEY" which also shared insights about chart patterns, markets trends and traders human emotions.
LATE 19TH AND EARLY 20TH CENTURY
Charles Henry Dow
considered father of technical analysis born 1851 Charles Dow is the one that first to induct modern-day technical analysis in the United States Of America, he was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones and Company which is a publishing firm along ide Edward Davis Jones and Charles Bergstresser. He also co-founded The Wall Street Journal which its first publication was on July 8, 1889 which became the the most reputed financial publication and first of it's kind which was a series of texts that discussed his observations of the U.S stock market especially the industrial and transportation stocks listed in the U.S stock market this gave way to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average, he also held a strong believe that "the stock market as a whole was a reliable measure of overall business conditions within the economy"
he also developed the Dow Jones Theory which states that the market has 3 trend phases which was a significant breakthrough in technical analysis as this theory aids traders/investors in identifying the major, intermediate and minor trends in the market.
after his passing many other technical analysis developers came from studying his work/publications which include the likes of William Hamilton who later become the editor of the wall street journal, others notable followers of his work include Robert Rhea, George Shaefer and Richard Russel.
another prominent figure in the development of modern-day technical analysis is
Ralph Nelson Elliot
born 1871 whose financial career started as an accountant, Mr. Elliot was famously known for studying 75 years of historical stock market data and recording his research and findings manually as computerized systems where limited which i believe is very outstanding.
his work is based on a theory that market movements are not random and that the markets moves in specific trends and patterns (waves) which are influenced by traders/investors psychology.
his wave theory gained traction in March 13, 1935 when he stated that the the market will make a bottom and indeed the following trading day the Dow Jones Industrial Average made it's lowest closing price, which proved his Elliot Wave Theory to be a significant technical anaysis concept.
20th CENTURY
Technical Indicators
with the aid of computerized systems technical analysis evolved into technical indicators which are computer systems backed by mathematical calculations of price data which apply these calculations to analyse large volumes of market data incorporated by algorithms which overlap on charts to forecast future price movements.
hope you have a fun read and learned something new.
“In learning you will teach, and in teaching you will learn.”
Phil Collins
put together by Pako Phutietsile as @currencynerd
XAU/USD : IMPORTANT Pre Market Analysis (READ THE CAPTION)Currently, the price of gold is hovering around **$2656.99**. Recently, gold has seen a slight increase, driven by several factors such as inflation concerns, recent CPI and PPI reports, and geopolitical tensions.
Key Influencing Factors:
1. Persistent Inflation: Recent CPI and PPI reports show that inflation remains slightly above expectations, keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset.
2. Interest Rates: Expectations around interest rate cuts have stabilized, which increases gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing global political instability, particularly in regions like the Middle East, is adding upward pressure to gold prices.
Technical Analysis:
• Resistance Level: If gold prices break above $2685, there could be further bullish momentum.
• Support Level: On the downside, key support zones include $2636-$2642, $2628-$2630, and $2620, which should be closely monitored if the price declines, as strong demand in these areas could lead to a reversal.
Outlook:
Given the economic and geopolitical landscape, gold remains in a bullish trend. Traders should keep an eye on economic reports and geopolitical developments as any increase in uncertainty could further boost gold's price.
This sets the stage for today’s market session, with potential for continued upward movement.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Time for US30 to take a breather?Dow Jones index has been spiking since the Fed decided to lower interest rates in September 2024. With just two weeks until the 2024 US presidential election, history suggests that the market typically experiences a correction before elections due to uncertainty.
Will this time be an exception?
DOW30/US30 - SWING TRADE ONLYTeam, with the DOW/US30, we are doing swing trade.
With swing trade, we require to leave room for stop loss, so our target is also big as well
We prefer to enter SHORT at 43069-43085
STOP loss can be TIGHT at 42115 or SWING STOP LOSS at 43215
Target at 42815-45
then Target at 42410-56
PLEASE NOTE: With the swing trade, we could hold the trade for a few days until the target is reached. If we lucky we can get the target hit within the same day demand on how the market react due to data.
DOW JONES: Turned the previous Resistance into Support.Dow Jones is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.922, MACD = 449.140, ADX = 44.993) as it recovered yesterday's losses but more importantly it is rebounding at the top of the former Channel up. Having broken over it 3 sessions ago, two short term patterns emerged a Rising Wedge (HH, HL) and a Channel Up. If the HH trendline is crossed, it will be the perfect buy signal to target the top of the short term Channel Up (TP = 44,000). The 1D RSI shows that a rally similar to July 10th is possible.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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20% Interest Rates Could Crash The Market 98%It’s been a while since I last posted, but I’ve got a good reason to start again.
If you take a close look at the charts in this video, you'll notice the potential for a significant market decline across the board.
By analyzing the Dow Jones and interest rates together, it becomes evident that we are nearing this point.
I'm not influenced by news or personal biases—I just prefer not to invest when the market is in this state.
Whether it’s stocks, precious metals, or crypto, I believe it’s wise to be cautious when these signals appear.
The long-term interest rate chart gives me strong reasons to believe we could see a historic drop in asset prices.
Basic concepts like mean reversion and resistance turning into support are some of the key factors that back my AriasWave analysis.
Stay tuned for more updates now that I’m back to sharing new ideas.
Possible Buy Trade on US30 / Dow JonesThis is my analysis trade for US30. Weekly is bullish all the way down to 4H for HTF direction.
I will not chase the price instead. I will wait for the pullback for the price to go to my buying zone
for the OB which are showing up from 4H all the way down to 15M timeframe. So for me, this is the best location to buy again for another possible round of bullish action for this market.
I added a trade alert so I will not look at this pair in the week until my alert gets triggered.
Once price goes to my buy zone and I get my alert, that's the time I will go down and find my possible trade entry on lower timeframe so I can have a tighter stop loss and possibly get a better risk reward ratio.
Possible target would be the all time high price as well.
I will update my trade idea here once price goes to my buy zone for my possible entry on the lower timeframe.
DOW JONES Channel Up is turning bearish gradually.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up and is currently very close to its top.
So far the bullish wave is a +8.03% from the last Low.
The previous bullish wave topped after a +8.33% rise.
Technically the index is very likely to top now or on the next MA50 (4h) rebound.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 42000 (above the 0.5 Fibonacci level, where the last Low was priced).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) just crossed below its MA trend line. This was the ultimate sell confirmation (September 3rd) on the previous High.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES - Potential long !!Hello traders!
‼️ This is my perspective on DOW JONES.
Technical analysis: Here we are in a bullish market structure from 4H timeframe perspective, so I look for a long. I expect price to continue the retracement to fill the imbalance lower and then to reject from OB.
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Dow 30 Tanks! Short Trade Hits First Target – More Downside?The Dow 30 (DJIA) has shown significant bearish momentum, with the short trade reaching Take Profit 1 (TP1) at 42855.11.
Key Levels
Entry: 42975.00 – The short position was entered as the price broke below this level, indicating bearish sentiment.
Stop-Loss (SL): 43072.00 – Placed above recent resistance to protect against a potential price reversal.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 42855.11 – The first target has already been reached, confirming the downward move.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 42661.11 – The next target as the bearish trend continues.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 42467.11 – A further target if selling pressure persists.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 42347.22 – The ultimate profit target signaling a continued decline.
Trend Analysis
The price has dropped below the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming the strength of the bearish trend. With TP1 already hit, further downside potential is in play, with the price likely to test TP2 and beyond.
The short trade on the Dow 30 has successfully hit its first profit target, with further targets likely if the current bearish trend holds. The strong downward move suggests that TP2 and TP3 could be reached in the near term.
GBP/USD : First BUY, then SELL ! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the GBP/USD chart on the 2-hour timeframe, we can see that the price is currently holding the support at the 1.30700 area. I expect it to continue its upward movement. The potential targets for this analysis are 1.31130 and the range between 1.31345 to 1.31455. Also, keep an eye on the 1.31455 to 1.31760 area for a potential SELL opportunity.
THE MAIN ANALYSIS :
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
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Dow Jones Hits All Targets! Bullish Surge CompletesThe Dow Jones has demonstrated a strong bullish trend, with the long trade reaching and completing all profit targets.
Key Levels
Entry: 42078.17 – The long position was entered as the price broke above this level, confirming bullish sentiment.
Stop-Loss (SL): 41954.95 – Positioned below recent support to manage risk in case of a pullback.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): 42230.47 – The first target was achieved, confirming the continuation of the upward trend.
Take Profit 2 (TP2): 42476.91 – The second target was hit as the bullish momentum continued.
Take Profit 3 (TP3): 42723.35 – Momentum carried the price to the third target.
Take Profit 4 (TP4): 42875.65 – The final profit target was reached, signaling a strong rally.
Trend Analysis
The price is comfortably trading above the Risological Dotted trendline, confirming the strength of the bullish momentum. With all targets hit, the trend continues to reflect a strong upward movement, supported by positive market sentiment.
The long trade on the Dow Jones successfully hit all profit targets, with the final TP4 at 42875.65 marking the end of a highly profitable trade. Strong support from the Risological Dotted trendline and continuous upward momentum suggest that the market is favoring bulls in this period.
#Tesla Analysis : +20% so far, What's Next ? (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the #Tesla stock chart on the weekly (logarithmic) timeframe, we can see that, as expected in the previous analysis, Tesla stock faced selling pressure after reaching the supply zone of $233 to $271. This selling pressure intensified this week, causing the price to drop by about 20%, reaching $214. Currently, Tesla stock is trading around $220. We will likely see a slight upward move followed by further declines in the stock.
The Main Analysis :
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DOW JONES 15 year cheat-sheet that can make you rich!Dow Jones (DJI) is extending what seems a relentless rally since the August 05 Low, which was the most recent short-term correction, but in reality the index has been rallying very aggressively since the October 23 2023 Low.
That was when after a 3-month correction, it found Support above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and 2 weeks later it reclaimed the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been supporting ever since. So basically the index has been on a 1W MA50 Support for 1 whole year!
What's more striking however and what short-term traders/ investors tend to ignore are the long-term Cycles of a financial asset. And Dow being one, is no exception. As mentioned, the 1W MA200 supported the October 23 2023 Low and in effect has been holding since October 10 2022 (so for 2 full years!), two weeks after the Inflation Crisis bottom. Since then we have been inside a Bull Phase.
This is part of a greater trading Cycle for Dow, one that started 1 year after the March 2009 market bottom of the historic Housing Crisis. As you can see, the pattern is recurring and the phases have a high symmetry and frequency among them.
First and foremost, they tend to do two Lows within a 1 year span, which is essentially the Bear Phase, which finds Support on the 1W MA200 (exception was of course the Black Swan of the COVID flash crash but it is of course a non-technical irregularity event) and then rebounds, effectively starting the Bull Phase.
The first 2 Bull Phases rose by +75.80%, while the most recent by +70.80%, so we are roughly around the same strength levels. Also as far as duration is concerned, the 1st Bull Phase lasted for 1239 days (177 weeks), the 2nd for 1134 days (162 weeks) and the 3rd for 1106 days (158 weeks). Again the time element is quite similar. Notice also the similar pattern that the 1W MACD prints every time Dow enters the final part of the Bull Phase.
As a result, if we apply those dynamic conditions on the current Bull Phase, we can see that a minimum rise of +70.80% from the bottom, should peak a little over 48000, and if it last a minimum of 1106 days (158 weeks) it should come to an end and price the top by October 06 2025.
This indicates that we have at least another full year of bullish trend ahead of us and a fair Target could be 48000.
As you realize, investors who are methodically following this 15 year old cheat-sheet, know where and when to buy/ sell and that achieves investing's two main principles: Profit Maximization and Risk Management. Patience and proper management within such Cycles are what "can make you rich" indeed.
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DOW JONES Still bullish. Drop expected end of month.Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up since August 5th.
Despite the mini rally since last Monday, the rise isn't technically over as the overbought (>70.00) 4hour RSI is on a level similar to where the two bullish waves before entered a slower but still upward trend until they priced a higher high.
Buy and target 43900.
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WEEKLY FOREX FORECAST OCT. 14-18th: BUY THE DOW? YES!The DOW looks to have supporting structure for higher prices. The bullish momentum is there, and Friday's close put that on display.
There is some potential for a limited pullback, though. But I would view it as an opportunity to get a better price on a possible long position.
What are your thoughts....?
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Combined US Equities Breakout late OctoberVery quickly, the expected breakdown did not happen, and this week saw the an across the board bullish breakout. Noted the breakout is long in the teeth (old and late) and while bullish, it is not strong nor convincingly sustainable. Reminiscent of this expectation is the MACD and VolDiv looking lackluster.
Expected top marked, and after 21 Oct needs a review... that would be the projected resistance for a stronger pullback.
Bullish for now and the week ahead.
Enjoy, make hay while the sun shines!