DOW JONES: On an important make or break 1D MA200 testDow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down on currently red 1D technicals (RSI = 42.150, MACD = -137.170, ADX = 39.695). For the past week though it has been mostly sideways between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. Today the 1D MA200 held but that alone is not a buy signal.
If it crosses and closes over the 1D MA50, we will target first the R1 (TP1 = 33,650) and then the top of the long term Channel Down (TP2 = 33,900). If the price closes under the 1D MA200, sell and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 32,000).
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DOW
DOW JONES Trading approach going into JuneDow Jones / DJI is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than a month.
The price is now under the 4hour MA50 and as long as it closes there, sell and target close to Support A at 32600.
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA100 will be a short term buy signal targeting 33400 (top of the Channel Down).
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA200 will be a long term buy signal targeting Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Neutral. Waiting for break out levels to trade.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down with the price currently contained within the MA50 and MA200 (1d).
A similar pattern in late December 2022 broke to the upside but be prepared to trade either direction based on the break-out that will prevail.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over the MA50 (1d).
2. Sell if it closes under Support (1).
Targets:
1. 34350 (under Resistance 1).
2. 31750 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) strengthens the view that the current price action is similar to December's. If it breaks over the MA trend line and rebounds on it (like January 5th 2023), it could be an additional buy confirmation signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONESDow Jones Industrial Average is the oldest index in the world.
The index always shows what is happening with the US economy - the largest economy in the world.
Let's look at the chronology of important economic events since 1916:
1916 Lusitania - Sunk by German Submarine / Emergency Revenue Act - Includes Estate Tax
1917 US Formally Declares War on Germany
1918 World War I - End / Daylight Savines Tima / Amendment, Prohibition - Ratified
1919 Amendment, Women's Suffrage - Ratified
1921 The First Restrictive Immigration Act
1922 Federal Narcotics Control Board - War on Drugs
1923 First Transcontinental Fight Japan Earthquake
1924 Ford Manufactures 10 Milfionth Automobile - Scopes Monkey Trial
1926 Revenue Act - Reduces Income & Estate Taxes
1927 Lindbergh - First Nonstop Flight - New York to Pacis
1928 Amelia Earhart - First Woman to Fly Atlantic
1929 Financial Panic - Stock Market Crash - Depression
1930 Smoot Hawley Tariff Act
1931 Bank Panic - Countrywide Banks Closings
1932 Lindbergh Kidnapping / Reconstruction Finance Corp
1933 The New Deal - FDIC Established
1934 Securities & Exchange Commission - Established
1935 Social Security Act - Passed
1936 Drought in the Western States - Dust Bowl
1937 Hindenburg - Destroyed
1938 The New Deal - End / Fair Labor Standards Act
1939 World War Il - Begins in Europe / Great Depression
1940 France Falls - German Occupation
1941 Peart Harbor - Attacked by Japanese
1942 Price Controls - Begin / Battle of Midway / Guadalcanal
1943 Current Tax Payment Act, Withholding Taxes
1944 Normandy Invasion
1945 World War II - End / Cold War - Begins
1946 Stock Market Crash / Price Controls - End
1947 Taft-Hartley Act / Marshall Plan
1948 Truman Upsets Dewey - For Presidency
1949 Foreign Currencies Devalued
1950 The Korean War - Begin
1951 First Commercial Color TV Broadcast
1952 Steel Workers Strike - Despite Government intervention
1953 The Korean War - the End of Wage Stabilization Board
1954 St. Lawrence Seaway Bill - Passed
1955 President Eisenhower - Suffers a Heart Attack
1956 Suez Canal - Crisis
1957 Sputnik |
1958 USA - First Satellite Launched
1959 St Lawrence Seaway - Opened
1960 First Japanese Cars, Exported to US / U2 Spy Plane Shot Down
1961 The Berlin Wall - Built / Bay of Pigs - Debacle
1962 The Cuban Missile Crisis / Sled Price Rollback
1963 John F. Kennedy Assassinated
1964 Vietnam War Begins - Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
1965 The Great Inflation - Begin
1966 Medicare - Begin / the First Time USA Bombs North Vietnam
1967 The Six-Day War
1968 The Offensive / R.F. Kennedy & M.L King - Assassinated
1969 Apollo 11 - the USA on the Moon
1970 USA & South Vietnamese Invade Cambodia | Kent State
1971 Wage & Price Controls
1972 Watergate - Break-in / Munich Olympics Massacre
1973 US Involvement in Vietnam - End / Arab Oil Embargo
1974 President Nixon Resigns / ERISA Act - Signed
1975 Saigon - Fall / May Day - the End of Fixed Commissions
1976 US Bicentennial / Lockheed Aircraft - Bribery Scandal
1977 Panama Canal Treaty - Control of Panama in 2000
1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act
1979 Three Mile Island - Accident / Iran Hostage Crisis
1980 Iraq Invades Iran - War / Hunt Brothers Siver Crisis
1981 Tax Cut - Passed / Space Shuttle / President Reagan - Shot
1982 Penn Square Bank - Closed by Regulators / Falkland Islands War
1983 Terrorist Bombing of US Barracks - Beirut / Grenada Invasion
1984 Run on Continental Bank
1985 Gramm-Rudman Act / US Becomes a Debtor Nation
1986 Iran-Contra Affair / US Attacks Libya / Chernobyl Accident
1987 Financial Panic / Stock market Crash of Iraq Attacks on USS STARK
1988 Terrorists Bomb N.Y. Bound Airliner - Lockerbie, Scotland
1989 The Berlin Wall - Opens / US Invades Panama
1990 Iraq invades Kuwait / Gorman Unification
1991 The Gulf War / Soviet Union Collapse
1992 The Cold War - Ended / Civil War in Bosnia
1993 Russian Revok / World Trade Center - Bombed
1994 Orange County Bankruptcy of NAFTA instituted
1995 Oklahoma City - Murrah Federal Building - Bombed
1996 Alan Greenspan's “Irrational Exuberance” Speech
1997 Asian Currency Crisis - Hong Kong & Global Stock Market Rout
1998 US embassies in East Africa bombed
1999 NATO Bombs Serbia, Yugoslavia / Y2K - Millennium Scare / Columbine massacre
2000 Bush v. Gore Election Crisis / Terrorist Attack on USS COLE
2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center & Pentagon / Enron
2002 War on Terror of Turmoil in the Middle East / Corporate Misconduct
2003 Iraq - Weapons Inspections / War in Iraq
2004 Global War on Terror
2005 Record High Oil Prices / Hurricane Katrina
2006 Housing Decline / Nuclear Weapons - North Kores & Iran
2007 Subprime Mortgage / Credit Debacle
2008 Credit Crisis / Financial Institution Failures / Bitcoin - Created
2009 War on Terror / Climate Debate / Healthcare
2010 Gulf Oli Spit / European Union Cassis / Massive Debt
2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis / US Credit Downgrade
2012 European Debt / US Fiscal Cliff
2013 Boston Bombing / Government Shutdown / NSA Leaks
2014 Rise of ISIS / Police Protests / Oil Price Decline
2015 Terror Attacks / Refuges Crisis / China Slowdown / Fed Rate Hike
2016 Brexit - Start / Cuban Embassy Opened / Elections
2017 Trumponomics, Cryptocurrency Fever
2018 United States trade war with China
2019 Chang'e-4 on the far side of the moon / Fire of Notre Dame Cathedral / The first case of 2019-nCoV coronavirus infection in China
2020 US-Iran Tension / The COVID-19 Pandemic / Joe Biden Wins the Presidency / "Black Monday" for oil / Brexit - End / SpaceX space launch
2021 The GameStop short squeeze / Ever Given halts global supply chain / COVID-19 vaccines / America withdraws from Afghanistan
2022 Ukraine Russia War in the Center of Europe - Sanctions for Russia
What awaits us next...
Potential events that may overtake us in the near future:
- The use of tactical nuclear weapons.
- Cyber Warfare.
- Hunger.
- The largest economic crisis (food crisis, trade supply crisis, energy crisis).
- New viruses, pandemics.
- Potential formation and formation of Kurdistan and conflicts around it.
- Massive Blackout.
- Conflicts of countries in Oceania.
Write in the comment section what you would add to the list above.
Best Regards,
EXCAVO
Dow 4hour say= when pinbar comes,pick buy and hold when you see buy pinbar on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart ,pick buy with SL=pinbar low
wait time=2week
predict=dow,nasdaq,sp500 will see all time high again (35000) but with 2-3 mini crash
if you have old buys,dont fear, if red area break,hedge your buys
wish you win
DOW JONES: Hit the 1D MA200 after almost 2 months.Dow Jones touched today the 1D MA200 for the first time since March 29th, almost 2 months after the strong bullish break-out. The 1D timeframe is technically bearish (RSI = 38.438, MACD = -67.410, ADX = 30.240), indicating that we are approaching low enough levels to justify a long term buy. However we are only willing to open a buy position as long as the 1D candles close over the 1D MA200 and target R1 (TP = 33,600).
If a candle closes below the 1D MA200, we will open a sell and target the bottom of the dashed Channel Down (TP = 32,000). Once the 1D RSI gets oversold, we will again buy on the long term, aiming at the top of the seven month Channel Down (TP = 33,900).
Keep in mind that the 1D MA200 has held and provided excellent buy signals, three times and only once on March 9th it broke.
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US30 Analysis, can support hold for buyers?Today's focus: US30
Pattern – Support point, descending triangle.
Possible targets – Downside 31,840 Upside 31,160
Support – 33,033
Resistance – 33,705
Thanks for checking out today’s update. Today’s analysis is over the US30 daily as price sits around support in a descending triangle pattern. Yesterday price broke lower after buyers failed to beat Monday’s high. The debt ceiling issue continues to look like the key issue, with price reacting negatively after no ground was made on Tuesday.
This could continue to drive momentum, and bad news could equal downside risk, while a deal could give buyers plenty of drive. This week’s meeting minutes are another factor; traders will be looking for more clues on rates and how the Fed is seeing inflation atm. We are also hoping to hear more about how the banking issues are factoring into the Fed’s view.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
DOW JONES Emerging Bullish Cross may take it higher.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the former long-term Channel Down, hitting our previous upside target (see idea below) and is now forming a new pattern:
The new pattern is a Channel Up, which has been on a correction leg (blue channel down) since the 34270 High, similar to the one from December 01 to January 05. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting a loose Triangle pattern (dashed trend-lines), which above it targets Resistance 1. Our target is slightly lower at 34250.
The critical factor is on the 1D MACD, which is close to forming a Bullish Cross. Every MACD Bullish Cross under 0 in 2023 has been a major Buy Signal, and interestingly enough both have been formed while the price was consolidating within a Triangle.
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DJI ARE you rdy for sell ?🧨🧨👌The fall of the Dow Jones index / Are you ready to sell?
It is easy to see that the Dow Jones index is going to fall, and the targets that I specified for you will first reach 31486.38, then it will have a corrective trend up to 32550.68.
The next target that the index will see will be 28781.97 and that is where you can decide to go long.
DOW JONES Short term rise very likelyDow Jones is finding support on the 1day MA50, forming a Triangle pattern.
The same pattern during the late December 2022 consolidation, broke upwards and reached the previous High.
Up to this point, even the 1day RSI structures since the Falling Supports are very much alike.
As long as Support A holds, buy and target 34200.
If it crosses under the 1day MA200, sell and target 31700.
Previous chart:
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PFE - Buy The Dip or Follow The Trend?When I began research for this post I expected to be giving the bull case for Pfizer. It's the type of stock I like - a household name oozing with quality and prestige, a strong moat, beaten up with strongly bearish sentiment with multiple factors pointing towards recovery, with short term technical support and long term positive fundamental outlook.
I like to play the contrarian in the stock market and it often pays well. So what about Pfizer?
Well, technically it's RSI oversold (or was on Thursday, before a small bump Friday) on virtually every timeframe from the 1 hour right through to the Weekly.
Looking at Measured Moves, something I do regularly, it's down 19 points from it's swing high on Dec 14th 2022, exactly the same as big upswing from Feb 25th to Aug 18th 2021, and just short of the Oct 13th to Dec 20th 2021 swing of 21 points.
Note that these 3 swings mentioned are the largest swings in Pfizer history, due to the growth and subsequent crash caused by COVID and the following recovery.
We also have the potential for an area of support here, with the area around 36 having seen both support and resistance on a regular basis since 2016, and if we zoom out a year or 2 and look at Volume Profile, depending on where your set your Visible Range you're going to see the point of control landing between 34.5 - 36. Either the current price or just below.
So what's the problem?
There are a few.
"Patent Cliffs" are always an issue for pharmaceutical companies, where after 20 years their patents expire and they have to face competition from generic brands entering the space.
Five of Pfizer’s products face patent expiration in the next six years — Eliquis, an anticoagulant medication, Ibrance to treat breast cancer, Xeljanz for arthritis, Xtandi for prostate cancer, and Vyndaqel for transthyretin amyloid cardiomyopathy. Excluding Pfizer's COVID sales, these 5 products respresent 40% of the company's sales.
Just this week, William Pao, Pfizer’s chief development officer raised concerns about antitrust regulators cracking down on Mergers and Acquisitions, notably with the blockage of Amgen's $28billion takeover of Horizon.
This raises questions about Pfizer's proposed $43billion purchase of Seagen, and whether they too will come under regulator scrutiny.
Financially, Pfizer's revenue is expected to meaningfully decline in 2023, mainly due to a drop in COVID-19 related sales. Analysts estimate the revenue to be around $68.1B, a 32% YoY decrease.
Pfizer's adjusted EPS for FY23 is expected to be $3.37, down 49% YoY, according to Wall Street estimates.
This is a company that since 2000 has traded as low as 12 in 2008, to as high as 61 at the peak of the COVID drug mania. While technically we do look likely to see a relief rally in the near term, this isn't a company I want to be exposed to. There is too much uncertainty, and while it may look cheap on the scale of the last few years, we must bear in mind that those years were drastically inflated due to COVID drugs that are no longer relevent to it's financials. Pfizer is coming back down to earth with a thud, and I think the company belongs in the 27-36 price range until we see more clarity on it's Seagen purchase and how much it's revenues are pilfered by competing generics.
No play for me right now on Pfizer. This is the reality of stock analysis - you go down the rabbit hole, and ultimately most stocks are neither a buy or a sell. Just a "wait and see".
DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders on 1W target 34,350.Dow Jones hit again the underlying Support which marked a low on January 16th. That was the Left Shoulder (LF) of a potential Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern and if it holds again, this one will be the Right Shoulder (RS). The 1W timeframe is technically neutral (RSI = 49.180, MACD = 258.440, ADX = 22.862), which makes it a solid buy opportunity on a two month perspective. Our target is the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,350).
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DOW JONES Death Cross on 4h after 3 months.Dow Jones posted its first Death Cross on the 4h timeframe since February 22th.
This should prepare us for more selling if Support (1) breaks.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell under Support (1).
2. Buy over the MA200 (4h).
Targets:
1. 32450 (Channel Down bottom).
2. 34500 (Megaphone top and Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. RSI (4h) is posting a price action indentical to the one on the start of the Megaphone.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Big Buy signal if it holds the 1D MA50Dow Jones (DJIA) has gone a long way since the efficient buy signal we gave exactly 2 months ago:
The index is right now testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has closed 3 straight 1D candles above it and 4 since May 04. Since it broke below the Channel Up, going to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and 32800 is possible but not as long as it keeps closing above the 1D MA50, which has been established as the short-term Support. Instead, as long as it does, we are bullish and targeting 34250.
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US30This is my my "Sunday" review. I'm slightly fluish but that still is no excuse to being a slack.
Here we have US30 (A pair I actually didn't have the belief I'd be able to trade)
From the Daily, we can see we are forming a pennant and in previous weeks we have broke an uptrend, retested and continued. So we know we have hit all 3 points on both sides.
Move down to the 4H where we see a double bottom and an inverse H&S which is the opportunity for a bullish run. That is still not enough to declare our buying bias. We will wait for area of significance to be broken, retested before fully placing Buy Stops.
Down to 15M, those mini runs are risky but if you're thirsty and have enough capital to play with (you know how much that is), then fully go for it and stay watching it. I have just read that it is the CPI week so it will shake up the fundamental side of the market.
DOW divergence? Does this RSI divergence signal what's to come. I believe there is a catalyst coming that will cause the dow to plunge as will other indices. As of now im not sure what that is. something will blow up whether its banks ect. The fed will have no choice but to do an emergency rate cut. IF the rate cut happens. that's the time to go short. go look at every previous crash it only happens once fed cuts.
DOW JONES starting a new Channel UpDow Jones is forming a pattern much like January, which after a peak and rejection to a Lower Low, it started a Channel Up.
Both Lows have been formed on the exact price level (32950).
The 4hour RSI sequences are also similar.
The target on January's pattern was the peak's Resistance.
Buy and target 34200.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: Harmonic pattern calling for a buy. TP = 34,350.Dow Jones is on a minor 3 day pullback after a strong rebound that closed over the 1D MA50. The 1D technicals are neutral (RSI = 48.264, MACD = 86.760, ADX = 23.509) and being on a Harmonic rise since March 20th Low, the 1D MA50 rebound is most likely the bullish wave to test yet again the R1 Zone. Unless S1 breaks, we are targeting the bottom of R1 (TP = 34,350).
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DOW JONES Channel Down emerging. This is its invalidation.Dow Jones (DJIA) is attempting to re-enter the Channel Down pattern that broke upwards, and on the bottom of which we gave the most efficient buy signal almost 2 months ago:
At the moment the index is on the build up of a Channel Down which targets 32600. We will only buy if the price closes above its top (Lower Highs trend-line) and target Resistance 3 at 34900. As far as a long-term buy is concerned, we are only interested in buying if a Bullish Divergence is spotted on the 4H RSI, same as on March 15.
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CFD Update: FRA40 pushing at a new leg higher?Today's focus FRA40 CAC
Pattern – Support hold - continuation - HL
Possible targets – 7465 - 7600
Support – 7315 - 7360
Resistance – 7460 (ST)
Indicator support – CCi close to 0 cross – 38.2 fib area
Could we see a new leg higher on the FRA40? After Monday's holiday, price has opened lower on Tuesday, but there are a few bullish signs we are watching that could suggest a new push higher. Price formed an HL in the 38.2 fib area, support has been formed, and we see the support hold from a previous point of resistance. Price broke through the trendline, but we still need to see a new rally to confirm that.
A new lower that closes below support is worry and could invalidate the idea. Another factor is tomorrow's US CPI data. Depending on what’s released, this could impact US indices and, in turn, move European indices. The Core is expected to come in lower, with Y/Y flat at 5.0% and the M/M higher at 0.4%. The CPI data is due to be released at 8:30 am EST tomorrow.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
DOW JONES Megaphone targeting 34350Dow Jones is on the 2nd bullish leg of a Megaphone pattern.
The wave started after a closing and rebound on the MA50 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34350 (top of the Megaphone).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is identical to the RSI of the 1st Bullish Leg.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Trade the breakoutDow Jones is rising after the sharp fall earlier today on a pattern that might be an emerging Channel Up.
The 1hour RSI got massively oversold at 13.50.
Buy if the price breaks over the Falling Resistance and target 34250.
Sell if the price breaks under Support A and target 33235 (Support B).
Previous chart:
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