D-JONES, The Gap Filled Properly And Sourced High Volatility!Hello Traders Investors And Community,
Welcome to this update-analysis where we are looking at the DJIA 4-hour timeframe perspective, the index has recently shown high volatility movements to the downside which was expected after the gap-fill and the ending of the wave-count as pointed out previously this move now confirmed and the index testing the back-up-zone if you did not see this analysis already I highly recommend it by going on my account and watch it to have a full-depth-overview. Now there are important mechanisms the index has to show when considering a possible recovery there are significant levels to confirm, in this case, I detected the important zones and possible outcomes we should anticipate currently with the index destinies.
Looking at my chart you can watch there the index confirmed the preliminary short-zone bearish to the downside and now testing the blue back-up-cluster where several supports lying, firstly the EMA and secondly the upper boundary of the channel besides that it is a support zone formed by past price action. This cluster is highly important to hold when considering a bullish continuation and test of higher levels again because when the cluster does not hold and price moves below bearishness will increase till there is solid support found where the price can stabilize again, for a continuation the index needs to confirm the cluster and consolidate there as it is seen in my chart, a possible continuation can be confirmed when the index moves to the 28800 level again.
The index is in a situation where it has to show if the support levels can hold sustainably or lower levels will visit next times, when the index does not manage to stay above the back-up-cluster and closes below the next level to considered to be visited is the 27.000. Fundamentally speaking the decline was supported by the big divergences still existing in the real economy and stock market where the real economy is still damaged by corona increase it is important that these two factors grow together to provide a healthy market environment. Next times will show how the index can possibly stabilize however we should not keep the bearish case by side which will follow up when the index closes below the cluster, therefore it is inevitable to wait on the mentioned confirmation before going in the proper direction.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, good weekend to you and all the best!
"The ambition to transform opportunity into hold remains the most significant tool for a trader."
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Djia
D-JONES, Gap Will Fill Soon, Possible Reversal Ahead!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis where we are looking at the DOW JONES 4-hour timeframe perspectives, the upcoming decisive events in the structure, what we can expect after these events occurring and how possible outcomes can show up in the schedule. The DOW like other major indices recovered somewhat from the corona-breakdowns and lows seen this year where the SPX already made a new all-time-high the DOW is below it and although the indices recovered we should not ignore the fact that the rallies aren't necessarily fundamentally backed as many retailers rushed into the market smart-money staying outside and waiting on the sidelines, not to mention the divergence between real economy and stocks it is important that smart-money enters also where the question pops up if the breakdowns are already over or there is more to come, these facts also coming up in the technical picture of the DOW which is sending some interesting signals at the moment I detected how they possibly can play out over the next times.
Looking at my chart you can watch there that the index is just about to fill its gap which it still has lain there at around the 29.000 level, this gap-fill will highly possible play out the next times and this is also confirming on the smaller timeframes as the index is forming a triangle formation, this highly possible gap-fill can be traded in the long-side with overall targets at the 29.000 level from where the next moves are significantly important. Normally what happens often after such gap-fills reaching the gap and filling it is that supply entered the market as orders get filled and traders take profit, this is what also can show up here making the gap-fill-range around 29.000 a possible short-entry-zone as it is marked in my chart, what is supporting this preliminary pull-back is the fact that the index also ending with a wave-count in this level. This pull-back-scenario will be confirmed when the rising grey trendline is broken with a decisive volatile move to the downside the targets at the blue range can be expected where a support-cluster is lying in which the price can stabilize and back-up.
In this manner, thank you for watching, support for more market insight, all the best!
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
US30USD: Potential Right Shoulder and Bearish Gartley at HOPThe Dow Jones Industrial Average is forming a Potential Right Shoulder within an Ascending Broadening Wedge pattern and in this Right Shoulder, we can see a Potential Bearish Gartley at the HOP level with PPO confirmation. If it plays out, we will confirm a Partial Rise and increase the chances of a full on breakdown below this wedge pattern which at the very least would take us to the lows of the entire range.
Weekly Update: Next Stop 4312.25The rally off the August 18th lows is an overlapping mess that stands a high probability of concluding very soon, if not TODAY.
However, yesterday's CPI report market reaction marked a unique opportunity to remind followers, that markets are not linear. You can choose to look at the CPI report positively through a bullish or bearish lense. The reality was the pattern forming prior to the release was overlapping and signaled traders were uncommitted to higher or lower price action. In my trading room we debated the micro pattern the night before and, in the end, we had nothing constructive to the downside, nor the upside. Therefore, it really didn't matter what the report said, we had no micro pattern pointing us down. The upside was well contained within a larger counter trend rally and that was because we had no impulsive pattern up either.
I commented in my trading room, "Does anyone still feel markets are moved by news or events"?
A hotter than expected CPI discredits the narrative the Fed may be done raising rates. Therefore, one would expect the markets to sell off.
But the opposite happened.
You can choose to embrace any narrative you would like to explain that sort of price action. You can choose to invest or trade based on your personal perspectives…all of those buys and sells create a pattern. In reality, traders were telling us prior to the release...there was indecision about market direction and therefore we remained mired in this consolidation.
But I do think market participants will get the memo shortly. That’s because outside of the micro patterns, the larger patterns are telling us we have a meeting at 4312.25 regardless of your narrative, or perspective.
…and attendance is mandatory. See you all at the meeting.
Best to all,
Chris
DJIA, Flag-Formation Confirmed, Continuation Ahead!________________________________________________________________________________________________
Hi Traders, this is a signal I give to you for free today. Support will be great with a like and follow when useful.
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ENTRY: 27820-27950
MINIMUM TARGET: 28250
STOP LOSS: 27410
MINIMUM RISK REWARD: 1
REASON: Bull-Flag Confirmation
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In this manner, thank you for watching and support for more market insight.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
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DOW JONES 1st 1W Bullish Cross since 2016. Can we see 42k next?Dow Jones (DJI) is forming this week the first MA50 (blue trend-line) / MA100 (green trend-line) Bullish Cross (when the former crosses above the latter) on the 1W time-frame since September 2016 (assuming January/ February 2021 was flat due to the COVIC flash crash).
This on its own is a major long-term buy signal, especially since the 1W MA50 has been supporting since March. As you can see the 2022 - 2023 price action is very similar to the 2015 - 2016 sequence. Both fractals started on a Bear Cycle under Lower Highs, which bottomed after marginally breaking below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The new Bull Cycle was confirmed after the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and turned it into a Support being formerly a Resistance. The 1W MA50/100 Bearish Cross signified the bottom. Notice how even the 1W RSI and 1W MACD fractals are identical with their respective Higher Lows.
It appears that Dow is currently past the initial Channel Down and on the Circle pattern, which in 2016 was the final consolidation before a hyper aggressive rally that topped in January 2018. Before that top it reached the 1.5 and 1.786 Fibonacci extensions.
We treat the current pull-back as the last opportunity to buy this upcoming rally while the price is still that low. Having relatively low expectations, we expect to see at least 42000 (1.5 Fibonacci) by the end of Q1 - start of Q2 2024.
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D-JONES, It Will Be An Huge Historical Test In Stock-History!Hello Traders Investors And Community, welcome to this analysis about the recent events, the current price-formation-structure and what we can expect the next times in one of the major leading stock-indices worldwide and one of the oldest participants in stock-markets the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE, after we have seen the huge corona-crisis-breakdown which hit all global markets heavily we see a slowly moving uptrend right now, the big question which we have to ask our selves at the moment is if this uptrend is a stabile uptrend which will continue on a solid foundation or if it is just a huge bull-trap selling the shares to smart money on higher prices. As there are not only fundamental but also technical signals which I detected and which play an important role in the further outcome of the market we are looking at the 4-hour local timeframe.
When considering an index which builds the stock-market we have to also compare it with the current real economic situation and the things going on worldwide, and this situation is in fact a high volatile right now as the real economy is still damaged from the corona-crisis which has caused big failures due to lockdowns and the conservatism of the investors in this time. Also, we have massive protests going on worldwide which hasn't been seen since many 10th of years in that a mass-fashion. So taking all these factors together we can examine a divergence in the real economy and the stock market which shouldn't be the case because it is unnatural for the market and when it goes on for longer it has a big speculative impact on the market because the real economy isn't growing but the stock-market due to massive money printing from central banks, therefore, these two should build the same line together to provide a possibility for prosperity.
Technically speaking we see the index currently approaching a historical resistance level which is also the all-time-high-level you can see marked in my chart in red, when we approach this level firstly we can expect an pull-back because it is still a strong resistance level when this happened there are basically two possible scenarios which can play out within the index, once it is a second test of the resistance level where the price can succeed and make a new all-time-high to continue further and the second case will be that we break the current uptrend line you can see in my chart marked in grey to the downside which will cause bearish pressure and a test of the neckline of the inverted head and shoulder formation. When considering the bullish case it is important to keep in mind that the breakout needs to confirm with high volatility and sustainable price-action otherwise it can be a bull trap factly till the head and shoulders formation target confirmed.
It has to be noted that when we confirm a new high and advance further this will be a highly speculative rally as the real economy and the stock-market are still in divergence together firstly when these both run together we can get a healthy market environment. When considering the bearish side we can get bearish pressure after the uptrend line crossed to the downside, from that point it is possible for the index to test the neckline of the head and shoulder formation from where we can form a reversal and advance further but it can also turn out to come more bearish pressure to the downside which can invalidate the head and shoulder formation, therefore when we cross the 22690 mark to the downside this will get a definite bearish breakdown and need to be kept in the schedule for further considerations. At all the test of the resistance will be the critical factor in the further continuation of the index.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support for more market insight and all the best!
There are many roads to prosperity in the modern economy, but one must be contemplated.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the markets.
Weekly Update: We Hear You and Choose NOT to ListenIf you’re a parent, you’ll certainly understand that children do things despite being told not to. Is it out of curiosity? A rebellious nature? An issue with authority? Or my favorite, they know more?
Yes, yes, and yes.
It could be those answers or a variety of other reasons. Nonetheless, we don’t expect market participants to act like children. Maybe as adults, some of us never grew up and continue to do things for the same reasons we did as children.
Impulse control. Patience.
Some of the hardest lessons to learn, and undoubtedly can also be the costliest.
I recently read an interesting article trying to make sense of why the market has been up since March. In this article an individual, Michael Darda, with Roth MKM is quoted as saying…
“ The equity markets are ignoring the bond markets and that is a mistake ”, says Michael Darda, chief economist and market strategist at Roth MKM.
“ I (Darda) examined seven-decades of the yield curve and how it relates to the business cycle and equity market performance. I found there have been 12 inversions since the 1950’s. Importantly, during these occasions the inversion was shown to have preceded the eventual recession by a wide range of between seven to 25 months, with an average lag of 14 months. What is more important is my research shows based on news articles for each of the 12 previous inversion cycles, the narrative of a soft or no landing thesis was prevalent. Upon conclusion of the cycle these narratives were proven incorrect .”
In my trading room I constantly rail against CNBC. Nowadays they only serve as a mouthpiece for money managers talking up their books or interview anyone with an incorrect, albeit intelligent sounding narrative. Very little push back from the hosts...(ahem, I mean entertainers).
As I have mentioned many times to my members, I’ll never know what the catalysts are that tend to fulfill on my analysis…however, they tend to show up on time. But as an Elliottition, I’m fascinated by the behavior of large crowds, and when they act in a manner that the EWT analysis forecasts…it never gets old. To this day, I’m still blown away on how price can go directly to a particular Fibonacci level and reverse, or bounce.
On Friday we hit a dozy of a Fibonacci level in the indices, and this upcoming week, we should have a front row seat to witness just how bad it is.
But in a broader context I find myself asking the question. If the market has told its participants in 12 of the past 12 cycles that a particular outcome has happened, why would market participants choose to ignore this one?
Equally baffling, why would the same narratives be resurrected to validate the flawed perspective? I simply do not have answer. However, I must offer my most gracious thanks to those crowds of traders who continue to act in a manner that defies rational thought…. Nonetheless, is highly forecastable.
I thank you irrational traders. My family thanks you…and on behalf of many of my members…keep doing what you’re doing.
Rock on.
Best to all,
Chris
Will the Bears get Bold?As many of you may recall I recently posted that the areas of ES 4250-60 is my next target. What happens there will determine the price action for the remainder of 2023.
You can read the post here.
However, from a sentiment standpoint, we look next to see if boldness develops on the part of the more bearish thesis. To breach the 1.0 on the ES in any meaningful way at 4250-60 brings the ES 4150 into view for minor wave 3 of intermediate degree wave 1, which would then conclude around the 4040 area before getting a wave 2 bounce.
First, let's see if the bears develop a bold sentiment.
Best to all,
Chris
Evening Update: What Worries Me in the Short Term?It’s not the Fed.
My perspective is Chairman Powell has been fairly clear in his updates to the markets. The markets simply don’t want to hear any of it.
It’s not bonds, or interest rates.
Those are trackable and I have posted on the 2yr and 10yr bond yields. Yields are creeping higher and have done so since the October lows.
It’s also not corporate earnings.
If NVDA couldn’t save the Nasdaq…then all hope is lost. Well…not all. Lol
Nope, it’s none of that.
It’s the potential for a government shutdown with an October 1st deadline. Is that going to be our catalyst? In truth, I don’t know. But according to CNBC, since the United States is in a Presidential election year, the stock market can’t go down. Have I mentioned CNBC is more detrimental to trading for profit than anything.
I have long contested that the US markets are in a multi-generation reversion to mean cycle. In EWT terms…a super-cycle wave IV. These excuses mentioned above, are all the old paradigms of a 100-year-old bull market which carved out our super-cycle advance in what I am forecasting as a super-cycle wave III top that occurred in January 2022. If my analysis is correct, (and it is by no means a slam dunk as to where we are right now in the indices)…the January 2022 highs will NOT be revisited for a long, long time.
In the short term, let's see if the US Congress proves Fitch's downgrade of US Debt was warranted.
Best to all,
Chris
Dow Jones on a continuous and strong uptrend in 2023Raising inclination trend has confirmed on the Dow Jones.
What this means is that the rising trend is going up at a higher degree.
A normal trend is around 45 degrees. A stronger trend is 60 degrees. and once it starts rallying above 60 degrees this is where GREED kicks in and you should prepare for downside.
Also there is a strong Rising Channel which I'm sure countless range traders are loving at the moment as well as Trend traders.
Price>200
RSI>50
Target 37,000
Indian and US market OutlookNifty has made a significant recovery after hitting a low of 19223 on August 31, 2023. According to Elliott Wave Theory, the Nifty made its low as Wave iv of Minute Degree Wave {iii} within Wave (i). Until November 2023, Wave (i) of Minute Degree Wave {iii} might drive the index toward 20400-20600. As Wave (ii) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}," a pullback toward 19000 is what we can anticipate.
On Friday, September 1, 2023, Banknifty may have completed Wave (ii) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}." By November 2023, it may move toward 48800.
The S&P 500 may rise as Wave (v) of Minute Degree Wave "{iii}" toward 4800. Minor Degree 1 and Minute Degree Wave {v} may peak between 4900 and 4950 till the year's end.
Until November 2023, the Nasdaq 100 appears to be peaking as Minor Degree Wave 1 in the range of 16370 to 17450.
In a sequence known as Wave 1-2 and 1-2, DJIA is expanding. Thus, given its current structure, the DJIA may outperform other major US indices through the end of the year.
DOW JONES sets course for the All Time High in the next 2 monthsDow Jones (DJI) held its 1D MA100 as Support and as projected on our analysis last week (see chart below), it formed a Higher Low on the 5-month Channel Up and rebounded:
We now move to the 1W time-frame where this week's 1W candle is so far the strongest since July 17 and already recovered the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). After completing the standard -4.70% correction to the Channel's bottom, the norm within this pattern is to first post a +6.15% rise and ultimately complete the Higher High with a +9.00%. As a result, our short-term target is 36100 (+6.15%) and by the end of October 36960 (+9.00%), which is the All Time High since January 2022!
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Weekly Update: Why Couldn't NVidia Save Us?Maybe the catalyst higher starts at Jackson Hole and Chairman Powell's speech at 10am? If not that, then the market will move higher because of either a soft, or NO landing recession thesis. As I continue to update my sentiment chart for my followers, these are the current narratives being discussed...but it will not matter to the sentiment chart what the narrative is.
The Sentiment Chart simply is a repeating visual of trader sentiment. The narratives will change. The Sentiment Chart doesn't. It simply repeats.
If intermediate waves 1-2 are done then this is about to get ugly.
Best to all,
Chris
DOW JONES First time near the 1D MA50 since July 10.Dow Jones is having the strongest pull-back since late May, so far still within the technical boundaries of the 5 month Channel Up. In doing so, it is only a few points before hitting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been intact since the July 10 Low. Despite that contact, the index hasn't closed a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 since June 01, which was at the start of that Channel Up Higher Low.
As a result, we remain bullish aiming at a +6.10% rise to 36800, as long as the 1D candle closes above the 1D MA50. If it fails we will take the small loss and quick sell instead towards the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at 34200, which is exactly at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up.
If that scenario is materialized, then we will only buy again after the 1D MACD completes a Bullish Cross, most likely (but not necessarily) closer to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). In that case our buy target will be 36900, just below the All Time High of 2021.
P.S. The 1D RSI already broke below its Higher Lows trend-line, potentially an early bearish warning.
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Sentiment Index UpdateToday I shared a video in my trading room of Tom Lee on CNBC post his CPI massive rally call which didn't materialize.
One member pointed out:
" Lol. The man in this interview is not “fearless.” He is having trouble getting it out, and he has concerns. He is impressed by the “pronunciation” of this move. "
I share the sentiment chart so we can observe the mental psyche of both sides (Bulls and Bears) and how it never changes and just repeats. This sentiment causes buyers and sellers to vote each day through the buys and sells they execute...how they vote, provides us a visual pattern. This pattern is much more forecastable than the internal fundamentals.
Best to all,
Chris
Weekly Update: Nothing Lasts Forever. NOTHINGI vividly recall a few years back having just finished labeling the above chart of the SP500 from inception. I labeled the chart and included most of the historical events that occurred over the course of that time. As a trader, I wanted to have a quick reference visual picture of price action during war time, innovation, and societal change, juxtaposed on my EWT count.
Afterwards, I plopped on the couch and wanted to “Veg Out”. As a full-time trader and analyst, my mind was kaput. Exhausted... I wanted to watch something on TV that required no more of my brain energy. I turned on the History Channel and subsequently settled on this series called, “Life After People”. As the series progressed, I went from mentally exhausted to engaged. The simple summation of the series was that despite us having built sky-scrapers, cities, bridges, etc., if people we’re no longer around, the sum of the proof we ever existed on earth would eventually get overrun, deteriorate, and the final result would be recycled by the planet into the sum of its elemental parts.
The series referred to this process as Entropy. I wondered if the time I spent laboring over the machinations of price action since pre-industrial America was in fact, the natural order of progression. Birth and death. Start and finish.
I looked up the definition of Entropy and here it is.
Entropy is a scientific concept, as well as a measurable physical property, that is most commonly associated with a state of disorder, randomness , or uncertainty . The term and the concept are used in diverse fields, from classical thermodynamics, where it was first recognized, to the microscopic description of nature in statistical physics, and to the principles of information theory. It has found far-ranging applications in chemistry and physics, in biological systems and their relation to life, in cosmology, economics, sociology , weather science, climate change, and information systems including the transmission of information in telecommunication.
Every known thing, will eventually succumb to Entropy.
I found the concept of entropy, captivating, thought provoking, and I couldn’t help but wonder if entropy applies to what I do. I’m a full time trader. When I am asked what I do for a living, that is always my response. But I also associate with being termed a financial pattern analyst, an Elliotition, or just a plain ole’ analyst. As an Elliotiion, I practice the financial forecasting principles discovered by RN Elliott in the early 1930’s. My association with Elliott Wave Theory (EWT) was a normal one, as I never conceded price action was random. Even as a young investment banker in my twenties, I always had this nagging notion, that however subjective or complex the stock market appeared to be, that eventually a simple construct would emerge that would lift the veil of the random, to allow for a more scientific methodology to answer the movements of stock prices and markets.
My introduction to the principles of Elliott Wave Theory started that quest for answers to seemingly unanswerable.
In Elliott Wave Theory, counter-trend patterns such as waves 2, 4 and B, are areas of potential complexity. It is within these particular wave degrees that some of the most obscure financial price action patterns come into view. From triangles, to WXY's, and the gamut of pattern complexity carves out their shapes here. To even the most seasoned Elliotition these areas can cause confusion, mislabeling and undoubtedly, uncertainty. In the intermediate sense, they mean less. But when observed in the larger cyclical timeframes, these areas are always associated with economic and/or societal change.
The last financial supercycle waves took place on October 1929 wave (I), and April 1932 wave (II). Post 1932, financial prices have advanced seemingly unabated for 90 years. During this 90-year timeline, humanity has advanced in technology, medicine, communication, etc…all of which have impacted living conditions and average life span. These advancements changed migration patterns, mobility and communication.
I can’t help but think, is now the precipice of where our 90 year advance and the natural order of entropy have hit a tipping point and henceforth, entropy now has statistical favor?
Granted I am not skilled to discuss societal matters or medicine, etc…but from an analysts perspective…Is flat to down now the path of least resistance in the markets for the foreseeable future?
Along the way of the 90 year advance in the SP500 you can see the historical events that have occurred and their impact on price action. Those price action sub-divisions were the result of the best and worst of times post 1932. My children, now grown adults, were financially shaped most by the 2008 financial crisis. However, in the grand scheme of super-cycles…you can barely make out those declines on the above chart. The final anecdote I’ll share is in 1991, when my wife and I bought our first home. Making what we believed to be one of the largest purchases we would make in our young lives, we watched mortgage rates as they flucuated. Then, we pulled the trigger to lock in rates, due to a short term dip, and at the time, felt we were wiser than most. So happy with our shrewdness in locking in 9.75% APR on a 30 year fixed mortgage. In retrospect, mortgage rates never went back above 10%. The last two decades, fiscal policy was on a longer term trajectory to 1-3%. We were not the gurus we made ourselves out to be back then. Maybe that trajectory down was a reversion to the mean in the post Larry Summers Fiscal policy of the mid to late 1970’s. Seems so now with the benefit of hindsight. But now it feels like that again…but this time the reversion to the mean is a post Ben Bernake fiscal policy. I can’t say for sure, as I do not posses that kind of foresight with respect to interest rates.
What I can say, is having analyzed 150 years of price action, financial entropy is starting to rear it’s head. If this is in fact starting price action of a supercycle wave (IV). The buy and hold strategy is dead. This will be a traders market for at least the next two decades, or more. Case in point…observe the area in the red box on the above chart. This area is a primary circle wave 4 of one lesser degree within a cycle wave III. That wave 4 consoldation lasted from 1996 until the beginning of 2013. That was manageable. That was also 17 years of price action digestion from the previous 1974 stock market bottom.
Since our previous supercycle events, we have experienced wars, advancements in technology, medicine, migration patterns OH AND WE EXPERIENCED a global pandemic. Mirroring what led up to previous (I), (II) wave degrees.
I don’t post this to scare readers, nor do I seek ANY attention. I do not ever see myself as being referenced as the trader who called the top of some market in some time. I forecast these things to evaluate if I can make money as a trader from the forecasts. In conclusion, I’ll leave you with one of the wisest quotes I ever heard as it pertains to what I wanted to achieve as a trader when I started. Its not from a wise greek philosopher. Its from Cuba Gooding Jr. in the 1996 movie Jerry Maguire.
“I’m already famous…now just show me the money”
DJIA - Bull Market in Early Stages, More Upside in Near TermThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has given a fresh breakout, rallying above the 35,500 level. The breakout comes after the DJIA has been consolidating in a range for several days. The strong move above 35,000 is a sign of bullish momentum and suggests that the DJIA could continue to rally in the near term.
The breakout of the Dow Jones chart is a bullish signal for the stock market. It suggests that the bull market is still in its early stages and that there is more upside potential in the near term. However, it is important to remember that the stock market is volatile and that there will be pullbacks along the way. Investors should remain disciplined and focus on the long-term trend.
Here are some additional factors that could support further gains in the Dow Jones chart:
Continued earnings growth from US companies
A healthy pace of economic growth in the US and globally
Increased risk appetite among investors
However, there are also some risks to the outlook for the Dow Jones chart:
A slowdown in economic growth
Any rise in interest rates
Increased geopolitical tensions
Investors should carefully monitor these factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
DOW JONES The Inverse Head & Shoulders no-one is talking about.The Dow Jones (DJI) index remains within its 5 month Channel Up pattern that started in mid March and recently hit its top. What the majority of the market is missing is a stronger pattern on the wider 1W time-frame. This long-term chart shows that an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern priced its Head (bottom) when the Channel Up started and completed the Right Shoulder on the first week of July.
As a result, the aggressive 3 week rally that followed is a natural consequence of the completion of that pattern, similar to the October - November 2022 rally that led to the start of the IH&S. Such patterns can technically target as high as the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level, which sits just above the 36975 All Time High. As the 1W RSI is bounce on a Pivot level (formerly a Resistance), we have more reasons to continue to be bullish in this market and target first the 35900 Resistance and ultimately the ATH at 36975, potentially all within the boundaries of the Channel Up.
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