Djia
Trend Continuation, 23 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities finished slightly down although tech and small cap outperformed. Price recovered from the day's low towards the end of the trading session but was not able to hold on to earlier gains.
➤ Overall, there's little to say about today's price action. S&P500 once again finished below the 400 level. Usually around these "round" numbers, price likes to move to and fro.
➤ I continue to hold my large short position.
➤ Conclusion: I still favour trend continuation to the downside in the short-term.
Hang On Tight! 22 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ It was a strong red day across the board with small-cap and tech suffering the most. Interestingly the DOW 30 lost more than the S&P500. That is unusual. Our hanging wo(man) failed to hold on to support on two accounts. Firstly the short-term low at 405 and also the 200-day Moving Average.
➤ Today's losses wiped out all of the February gains as well as 50% of the gains for the year (as measured from the recent peak).
➤ So where will our hanging wo(man) land? Around 390 is a clear first target. If that doesn't hold, next level is 380.
➤ I continue to hold my large short position.
➤ Conclusion: Hang on tight!
Don't Leave Me Hanging! 20 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equity prices finished Friday trade in an unconvincing manner. It looks like a wo(man) struggling to hang on from height (as illustrated). Obviously I'm a bit biased given my short positioning. Price did hold above the recent low at 405 so there is an opportunity for price to continue to recover.
➤ BTW, have you noticed that on every Friday since the start of the year, the market has closed higher than the open? What does it mean? Probably nothing...just thought it was good trivia.
➤ Anyhow, the price is really hugging my predicated price path nicely. To stay that way, we need to see the price drop immediately on resumption of trade Tuesday. There's nothing magical about the path, it is completely coincidental that the price is following it.
➤ Conclusion: Look out below.
It's Showtime! 17 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ We continue to see significant intra-day volatility in equities. Swings in excess of 1% up and down are now the norm. We should continue to expect this especially during this crucial period.
➤ This is the first day after many that the prices have managed to finish lower. The Bulls were not able to support the price. Their attempts today failed. That was sufficient to give me the signal to go ALL IN. Meaning, I am now SHORT with the maximum position size. It's Showtime!
➤ For things to go my way, I firstly need to see the price confidently break below 405. This was the recent low in the side-ways movement in the past couple of weeks. Then there is the much watched 200-day moving average at around 400. Below that is a possible fast drop to 390. That's around a 5% move from current levels.
➤ Conclusion: The Short trade plan is beginning to move in my favour but plenty of things may go wrong.
easyMarkets Dow Jones Daily - Quick Technical OverviewThe DJIA index continues to slowly form higher lows, however it is currently struggling with key resistance near the 34500 level. In order to see further advances, a break of that area is required. We will then target the highest points of December and April 2022.
For the downside, a break of the short-term tentative upside support line would be needed. Also, a drop below the 33543 hurdle, which is the current lowest point of February, may clear the way to some lower areas.
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Now or Never, 16 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ For the fourth consecutive day, price finished the trading day higher than the open. All this "bullish" action has occurred within the shadows of the large "bearish" bar on 9th Feb.
➤ Yesterday, I looked at the Bearish case of this "laboured" move. Today I'm going to touch on the Bullish story.
➤ The case for being Bullish is quite simple. The market has formed a Bullish "flag" technical chart formation. This is a minor retracement where prices whipsaw up and down either in a sideways or slight downward manner within the primary Bull trend. At some stage, price will then accelerate higher by breaking above this price congestion.
➤ The 4 consecutive up bars of recent days is telling us that despite the best effort of the Bears, the Bulls have overcome them.
➤ Conclusion: It is now or never for the short trading plan. Another day like today would see me switch camps to the Bulls.
DOW JONES Take advantage of this excellent channel!Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up for the past three weeks. With the use of the Fibonacci Channel we clearly see the heavy varience levels within 0.236 - 0.786. We will buy low and sell high for as long as the pattern remains valid.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current 4H candle.
2. Sell at 34300.
3. Buy at 33900.
4. Sell at 34400.
Targets:
1. 34300.
2. 33900.
3. 34000.
4. 33950.
Tips:
1. The 4hour RSI is inside a range that matches perfectly the highs and lows of the Channel. Use it for additional confirmation of entries/ exits.
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All To Play For, 15 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ The price reaction post the Inflation data was anti-climatic. Equities started lower but ended higher. Overall, slightly down from the previous day.
➤ Don't be fooled by my chart that has plotted an almost perfect trajectory for the price path thus far. This will most certainly be wrong. I'm no Nostradamus.
➤ For Traders like myself who are holding a short position, the rise over the last three days has not managed to surpass the large down day on 9th Feb. Bulls are finding it tough. Of course, that doesn't prevent prices from surging higher, it just shows that the Bears are still in the game. The game is wide open, it is all to play for.
➤ I would need to see the VIX reverse course quick smart though. It collapsed today. A solid up tick is needed for the Bear thesis to play out.
➤ Conclusion: It is still going to plan.
Going to Plan, 14 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Happy Valentine's Day to all my Copiers and Followers! Even if the market is showing you no love, I still will! 😘
➤ Equities moved higher Monday. It was expected but I didn't know to what extent. Nor does it matter unless it moved beyond the levels as set out in my post yesterday: "The Perfect Trade Plan". See related idea below.
➤ Today's aggressive move higher does not alter our plan, if anything, it is going to plan. It can be argued that today's move was pretty meaningless. It was completely encapsulated by the large down bar on 9th Feb, it tells us very little of what happens next. You could further argue that this is a "trap" to allow the big players to exit their holdings or to put on more shorts at a better price. Very much like the bullish price action on 7th Feb. It all has to do with the upcoming main event.
➤ Inflation data Tuesday will almost certainly reveal if the above is true. It will probably also mark the make or break moment for my trade plan. A daily close above 417 on the SPY or if VIX collapses below 17 will force me out of my position with a loss.
➤ Conclusion: Still going to plan.
The PERFECT Trading Plan, 12 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Here's my plan of attack for the early part of next week if all things go according to plan:
⦿ I am already holding a small short position in the equity market. I'm looking for further downside to play out in the next couple of weeks. The major catalyst is the US inflation data release this coming Tuesday.
⦿ As illustrated on my chart, this is the idealized path I would like to see the price take in accordance to my trade plan. I would like to see the price move flat or higher on Monday. This is very possible given that there might be further buying support flowing on from Friday.
⦿ On inflation data Tuesday, I would like to see equities sell-off. A sufficiently aggressive sell-off will provide me with the opportunity to add to my shorts to a maximum position size.
⦿ I would like to see prices continue falling for the remainder of the week and beyond. The primary price target would be down to 390 on SPY or 3900 on SPX500.
❓What can go wrong?
⤑ A lot. The second worst scenario is that Bulls take charge on the release of the inflation data and drive prices aggressively closing beyond 417 on the SPY or VIX collapses below 17. This will force me out of my position with a loss. Although It won't be disastrous given my small position size.
⤑ The worst scenario is after adding to a maximum position, price reverses aggressively higher beyond 417 on the SPY or the VIX collapses below 17. This will inflict maximum loss.
➤ Conclusion: It nevers goes to plan.
$STLD - bullish trade setup$STLD 6% upmove from 122.50 to 130
Technicals :
1. Monthly - bullish
2. Weekly - bullish
3. Daily - RSI Positive Reverse Divergence
Trade setup :
1. Entry : 122.50
2. Stop Loss : 119.75
3. Risk : 2.75 points
4. Target : 130
5. Profit points : 7.5 points
6. R/R : 2.75 : 7.5 = 1:3
The Last Supper, 10 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ I’m no Trading God, but was today’s price action the Last Supper for the Bulls? Is the free flow of sweet wine about to be cut-off? Not sure if this reference was blasphemous, I plead for mercy.
➤ Equities opened the trading day aggressively higher but by the end of day it was a complete 180° reversal of fortune. What do I make of this?
➤ Clearly, the Bears would be encouraged by today's price action. Price has definitively closed back below the resistance zone. VIX has responded by moving back above 20 from where previous downtrends began in ernest.
➤ The only wrinkle and it may be a very short-term one is that the drop from the recent high is not a change in behaviour. i.e. this drop is nothing out of the ordinary. The two key observations for a change of behaviour are:
➊ out-sized bearish candle/bar or
➋ out-sized drop since the beginning of the intermediate bull trend (since Jan 2023 low)
❌ Neither of these has occurred (when comparing to the drop on 18th Jan). Of course, we just need another bearish day and we will easily fulfill observation ➋
➤ NOTE: A change of behaviour does not mean a trend has ended. It is only a warning sign (the amber coloured traffic light) that something is afoot.
➤ I still hold a small short position.
➤ Conclusion: Plenty of Bulls are drunk, tell them not to drive - translation: just be careful
Lateral Thinking, 9 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities failed to keep the upward momentum. Today, it started lower and finished even lower. Despite that, the price action was not really meaningful. In technical speak, today was an example of an "inside" day, where all the price action was situated within the shadows of yesterday's large bullish bar. Therefore, we are none-the-wiser to what tomorrow brings.
➤ I hope through my daily communications with you, you are starting to get a better feel of my approach to trading. I'd like to think that I bring a form of lateral thinking. This is my trading edge afterall.
➤ That being said, I'm thinking quite literally that markets have a high chance of moving more laterally. Price is trapped around the resistance zone. So far, there is nothing specific in the price action that displays immediate signs of a trend reversal lower. It just looks like the market is biding it's time prior to making the decisive move. The more it trades side-ways, the greater the odds of the market moving higher.
➤ I hold a small short position.
➤ Conclusion: I hope my thinking is wrong.
DOW JONES Scalping range emerged and our medium-term plan.Dow Jones (DJI) got rejected yesterday following Powell's speech as the Resistance Zone of 34300 - 34370 held (August 16 and January 15 Highs respectively), we expect it to turn neutral for a while and trade sideways within the rough 33640 - 34180 Scalping Range illustrated on the chart.
The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has assumed the role of the Pivot and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that of the Support. Our short-term trading plan is to scalp this range for as long as the price remains/ re-enters inside it. On the more medium-term, above the green Pivot Zone we are buyers targeting 34300, while below the Higher Lows trend-line we are sellers targeting 32700 (above the 32480 Support). Similarly, we will take the buy break-out if the price breaks the 34370 January 15 High and target the 34910 December 13 High.
Keep in mind that this Higher Lows trend-line is what helped us take this accurate buy entry 3 weeks ago as you can see on the chart below:
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Bulls Never Say Die, 8 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities went full Bull mode today despite some intra-day volatility. It looks like it wants to surpass the recent high.
➤ There's really only one thing that could stop it and that is the super overextended nature of this Bullish move since the Oct 2022 bottom. Perhaps it is not really "stoppable". It may just be some lateral price movement to work off the exuberant enthusiasm prior to jumping higher.
➤ I am still holding my small short position until I get the exit signal to get out. For example, a daily close above the recent peak will definitely do that.
➤ Conclusion: Optimism may fade but it usually comes back. It rarely dies.
First Strike, 7 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities opened lower and ended from where it started. The more speculate stocks selling off more than the Bluechips. This was sufficient to get me into the Bearish mode.
➤ S&P500 is now trading below the double resistance line. I see the potential for it to drop some more. I'm using a small amount of capital to take a short position.
➤ This is also the first "live" test trade for my volatility strategy. This test involves using real capital in real trading conditions but with a small portfolio allocation.
➤ The play book going forward was outlined yesterday: A short opportunity first. This then opens up the second set of opportunities offering the high conviction trades. Increasing short positions as price weakens further with continued selling pressure or reverse with long positions if Bulls come in and support the price to invalidate the short set-up.
➤ Conclusion: Back in the game.
I Smell Opportunity, 6 Feb 2023🖼 Daily Technical Picture 📈
➤ Equities are at an interesting juncture that should provide good trading opportunities. I can smell it.
➤ If we look at the $SPY chart of the S&P500 equity index, we can see that the price is in the midst of testing resistance levels. These resistance lines are probably the most solid since the start of the rally. I therefore foresee the chance that price may settle or retrace downwards from current levels.
➤ Friday price action was a great example. The price was "trapped" entirely between the confluence of key levels. The question is where does it go next?
➤ For me, I really don't know nor do I care. All I really care about is if it will provide trading opportunities long or short. I can see both scenarios playing out. Perhaps a short opportunity first. This then opens up the second set of opportunities offering the high conviction trades. Either prices weaken further with continued selling pressure or the Bulls come in and support the price to pump prices higher.
➤ Conclusion: I'm ready to play.
Bread & Butter, A+ Long SetupNFP or not, I am taking this setup every single time. This is my bread & butter with a very high hit rate. Aggressive plosions here all day with a respectful SL.
DJI - The Stock Market Enters Wave 5: Blow-Off Top Then CRASH!Although the sentiment is incredibly bearish and the world expects the stock market to underperform, it has left thin order books, low liquidity and volume, and an overly emotional state of the market. Considering how certain most analysts, traders, and investors are that a recession is already here, most are in cash, short, or sidelined. This state of the market will lead to FOMO and a rapid chase of prices higher in the most emotional and hated rally ever. It happens fast, sucking in people very late into the wave, and ultimately ends faster than they are prepared for. Many people will take on debt to buy more very close to the top. Just as sentiment switches back to ultra bullish, everyone will be blind enough for the real recession and markets will collapse. This is really how Elliott Wave works - it is a socio-economic phenomenon based on investor sentiment and human behavior.
I'm publishing to be able to look back and see if this trajectory was correct at all.