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Distribution

Stock Market Under Distribution for the Past YearThe stock market has topped. Volume has been highest on down bars for the past 12 months. Up volume during this time has been much lower. This is happening at the 2.618 Fibonacci extension level after a protracted starting in 2012. This is making a round top. It has taken a long time. My belief is we will see large declines in 2016. I won't try to forecast how far or long the market will go down but I do believe the decline will be significant.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by GarryBartsch
Breakout Opportunity on USDJPY 240minUSDJPY is up to its same old tricks. The USDJPY like to consolidate tightly for periods of time then explode out of the range. This Breakout/Breakdown opportunity is setting up on the 240min chart. It's just a simple Balance Area. These Balance Area's are where "smart money" is either Accumulating or Distributing positions, we never really know what they are doing until we see the breakout. I'm favoring a downside break BUT I will NOT involve my self until I see a BREAK & CLOSE out of the Balance Area on the 240min Chart. Stops will go 1 ATR above/below Breakout bar. Targets are listed on the Chart. Downside Scenario: IF we break down, THEN we could be setting up a possible Head and Shoulders Pattern. This is shown on the Chart. IF this happens, THEN you will have the option to adding to your position or adjusting Target #2's to account for the Head and Shoulder Trade, just make sure you are following your rules in your Trade Plan. Upside Scenario: IF we break to the upside, THEN Target #1's line up with Structure (Look Left) and Target #2's will require us breaking into new Yearly high's. Breaking new highs is unlikely UNLESS we get a fundamental push like from the FED raising rates next week. I will be holding for Target #2's because that is what my Trade Plan says. TIP: Having a Trading Plan helps to eliminate trading decisions based on "emotions". IF you don't have one yet, THEN I would encourage you to make one before making another trade :)) Best of Luck!
by PateSkpate
4
DJY0One of the critical things to look for as a trader is DISTRIBUTION from the funds. We look at this on the indexes. Any index showing signs of distribution is a clue that potential turn is coming. One day a trend does not make, but if we see a series of lows and higher volume on those lows it is critical to get to the sidelines...or tighten stops. I look for 4 plus days in a month of trading to give a warning. Or a cluster of high distribution in a short time. This tells me the institutions are taking profit or exiting..I want to be the little wave runner in the wake of the huge Ocean Liner by following their flow of money.
DJ:DJIShort
by Vince