Get started

Distribution

The Importance of Distributional MovementsWe identified trade zones. Now I'm going to look at how far the distributional buying and selling points are. The same logic applies to the short position. We can set a stable stop-loss and exit position before waiting trade zone change. I have a good idea of position size, but what is difficult is how many distributional orders come in a trade cycle. I will determine them by looking a lot of samples and will find out optimum distributional ratios. Once i have identified them, i will be presenting you with a new idea, and it will be the highest level of this series. Regards.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Noldo
Shakeout/spring vs Drop after distribution On the left we have the coinbase 4hr chart from October. You can see the shakeout drop from 7990 to 7300 There is a spike in volume which acts as a spring to pump price to 10540 On the right we have the coinbase 4hr chart from November. Don't be fooled in to thinking this is the same price action. After distribution finished, the price dropped. Slowed by the moving average, walls on exchanges to encourage people to long. Compare the volume profile. So far there is no volume here and once enough leveraged longs are in, I expect the drop to continue. There could be a small rise to liquidate bottom shorters, in which case I would be looking at 9030-9070.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by paulflint
How Do 'Whales' Trade ? Hey! Now calm down and erase all of your coffee fortune-telling stories, throw the pump and dump signals you've been waiting for! You can only draw trend lines and long-term channels. If you're still not mad at me, we're starting now ! Trade is a relative concept and the buyer meets the seller relatively. Therefore, trendlines and channels can provide little information about trendlines in relatively time-dependent breaks. I am not a licensed broker at first, but I spent a lot of time in the CFTC and COT section, especially in interpreting Commercial positions with all other relative indicators and volume. The so-called concept of the whales in recent times is actually producers and owners of large official capital. They have to divide the amount of sales they find in their sales because the positions they carry are huge. While the price is falling while buying, they have to make gradually while the price is rising. Or they will not find buyers for their goods. Now we will consider a trade cycle with reasonable figures in the figures you see in the picture. We are doing it first bar after signal with average price as real trade : Example Rule : Our position size : Last block * 1.5 Distributional Buy Blocks : 1.Buy point = 1298.3 ( Position size = %1 ) 2.Buy point = 1214.1 (Position size = %1.5 ) 3.Buy point = 1194.5 (Position size = %2.25 ) 4.Buy point = 1193.1 (Position size = %3.375 ) Cost = (1298.3 * 1 + 1214.1 * 1.5 + 1194.5 * 2.25 + 1193.1 * 3.375) / 8.125 = 1210.4 Distributional Sell Blocks : Example Rule : Let's divide our sales into same levels according to our expectations. But in risky places that we think to be a definite negative trend, let's definitely empty our position and not carry a position. If the negative trend came after the first sale, then let's clear it all. All experts draw channels and trends for this. (I started using my high-end system, but channels and trend lines are still important, because I think everything that shows relativity in trade is very important! ) Our buy levels was 4 and sum of ratios = 8.125 1. Sell block = 1 / 8.125 = %12.3 2. Sell block = 1.5/ 8.125 = %18.46 3. Sell block = 2.25 / 8.125 = %27.69 4. Sell block = 100 - (1.sell block + 2.sell block + 3. sell block ) = 41.55 Finally : Sell Points 1. Sell point = 1223.923 (3 consecutive purchases were shortened in one buy , If I had sold 3 times in a row, my wife would have been much higher because the rate would have increased in the hills, but the sample would have been too long.Although I use a very successful system, I divide it into 10 and I empty all of them in the definite negative trend.You may divide by 15 or 20 with distributional buy too or decrease dist ratio.Here you can not sell anywhere in the whole position can be seen when you see the negative signs, I do not prefer only as a stoploss I use this last safety.) 2. Sell point = 1243.57 3. Sell point = 1285.67 4. Sell point = 1310.93 Average sell point : (1223.923 * 12.3 + 1243.57 * 18.46 + 1285.67 * 27.69 + 1310.93 * 41.55 ) / 100 = 1280.798 RESULTS : Net profit = ((1280.798 - 1210.4) / 1210.4) * 100 = 5.816 As a result, our senior investor has already increased per unit 5.8 percent in a short time. In doing so, commercials provided liquidity to the markets and did not have the problem of not finding buyers. Stoploss here means emptying the whole position, for me 4 bars means stoploss in all directions. I will adjust the rates and use it in real ideas and real trade. Stay tuned! Noldo.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Noldo
7
Bearish on grains & wheatBeen a while since I posted about agri. Price is around its average now, I see no reason for it to skyrocket. I don't think this little rally is a new trend, I see it as a correction. And the short term uptrend is probably just noise that kindly comes fill my shorts. Technically the price around 490-495 is a sweet spot to short this which makes it interesting. We let the amateurs trade everything to make sure they don't miss out. Market can stay irrational longer than you stay solvent so use a stop loss. And also, it's not 100% sure the price is supposed to go down, might be wrong. So in any case, stop loss (or something else) is good.
CBOT:ZW1!Short
by MrRenev
Bitcoin has now broken below 9k. Were you surprised?If you guys saw my other BTC post (link: ) then you would know I had been mentioning this distribution schematic for some time, and we have now broken below 9k giving it a lot more validation. We are now trading under 8750, and price is looking quite bearish. I think this 8k range might be just a temporary stopping point before we eventually head down into the 7k region. The 9k region should act as a major resistance level now as well. Also, for any crypto traders out there, Binance just launched their US exchange (Binance US.) If you need a link to go sign up, click here--> www.binance.us -This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk. I am not liable for any incurred losses or financial distress.
GEMINI:BTCUSDShort
by Deftsuo
Road Map Cypher Trading System by Charter XHello, This is a System I have developed after months of case studies to trace a map when price reach Buying Climax (BC) on a Wyckoff Distribution System or just a simple BC. I'm pretty sure that all of you have wondered sometime where do the measures come from after BC and where will the price could go. Well if you have never asked that question maybe this is the moment, and if you do, this is the possible answer. This study and research i have been doing is based in the study of Fractals or Harmonics that takes place in trading. Measures are done using Fibonacci Retracement tools and with the help of Chuvashov Fork System to verify some of the stages after Wyckoff Distribution System. I usually use Cypher tool for representations as you could probably have seen in previous analysis. If you have not, i invite you to take five minutes of your time and check other analysis (like XAUUSD for instance). But i believe this will be an easier way to visualize it. It is not easy to detect fractals at simple view since they may vary in different time frames. Take in count that if one of the points are broken, it probably means that the fractal in Stage 0 could have been miss calculated, or the time frame is not the right one, or as simple as it has been a mayor change in market due external causes. I would try to use this case on XBTEUR as a sample to explain how it works along time. I hope this helps you out on your tradings and gives you a little bit more of knowledge about Harmonics, Fibonacci Retracement, Chuvashov Fork, Wyckoff and other systems and tools, all combined in one. Cheers! Charter X PS: I leave you the first snapshot to keep track.
by CharterX
5
Euro Triangle Breakout Before ECB...Load up Bears!!!Consolidation triangle has a breakout.... Looking for a simple retest of the 1.1040 area which is a nice retrace of the current move.... Also we finally broke below the moving averages so retesting in that same area of confluence.. Ill be looking to add in this confluence area in addition to my shorts from earlier in the weak (idea attached) Note: Macd is poised to cross Zero threshold so a momentum move is near Positioning for ECB which should be dovish Aiming for the lows 1.097 for TP1 and 1.088 TP2 Happy Huntin' Happy Trappin' BooBii
Short
by rickyboobii
BITCOINCASH - How i analyse cryptocurrency with wyckoff!_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hello traders investors and community, today i want to share with you an example on how to analyze with the wyckoff market theory. There is an interesting example of an wyckoff distribution which i detected in BCHUSD, formed the last days. The wyckoff market theory is an approach to determine a reversal in the market wether it is up or down (Accumulation and Destribution). Today i want to show an real example of an distribution (reversal to the downside) happening in BCHUSD, it is already in the end-stages of the pattern. I marked all phases and price-levels with the correct describtion and will explain now further. It is more an psychological indicator which indicates take-profits and sell-offs from large operators. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Lets get to the technical side: _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Phase A - Marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. - Up to this stage demand has been dominant. - Supply is entering the market. - PSY (preliminary supply) - Large interest unload their positions, volume expands and price spread widens. - BC (buying climax) - Buying reaches a climax with heavy volume and momentum, FOMO by public, take profit by professionals. - AR (automatic reaction) - Heavy supply and volume takes place and pushes price down > exactly seen in the chart. - ST (secondary test) - Price revisits the area of BC to test the supply/demand balance, supply must outweight demand. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Phase B - Building a cause for a new downtrend - Professionals unloading LONG positions and opening SHORT positions. - Exhaustion of as much demand possible from professional market participants. - SOW (sign of weakness) - a move to or slightly pas the lower boundarie of trading range, weak demand and strong supply. - UT (upthrust) - price-move above resistance also known as shake-out, provides a definite test of the demand/supply balance. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Phase C - Bull-trap - Shows it self via an upthrust or uphrust after distribution. - Price move above the trading range resistance. - Professionals misleading public about future price moves and selling at favorable prices before mark-down begins. - UTAD (upthrust after distribution) - A UT or UTAD is a price move above resistance, trapping the public in a bull-trap. Sometimes a UT happens only or an UT and UTAD. It is also a test of the demand/supply balance. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Phase D - Forms after the UTAD in phase C shows last demand. - Phase D shows supply is clearly dominant. - Clear break of support. - LPSY (last point of supply) - Price has bad issues to advance higher and supply pushes price down, weakness shows with low volume rallys such as an triangle (seen in my chart), also it is trading below the 50 and 100 EMA (crossover happened). - SOW (sign of weakness) - increased momentum and volume pushes price down, supply is now dominant. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Phase E - Shows the final confirmation of down-trend. - Supply is now completely dominant while sell volume and momentum increases. - Normally marked with a failed rally to support. - Best point to open a short position because downtrend is confirmed. _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ We are currently in the last stages of Phase D. Phase E will occur the next day. Probably i will update. For more insight information support with a follow. May all the happiness come to you folks! _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
KRAKEN:BCHUSDShort
by VincePrince
4
AUD/USD - SECOND DISTRIBUTION PATTERN FORMING - HEADING LOWER?A clear second distribution pattern is forming. We have selling into the moves higher on the recent BC and ST by the looks of the volume. We are also approaching a re-test of the AR in the first larger distribution pattern. The downward trend that has formed also indicates a re-test approaching. Watching this closely for some reversal signals to get into a longer term short trade. Do your own research and good luck.
Short
by AussieWyckoff
5
USD/CAD WEEKLY TREND BREAKOUT Price Action (Technical Analysis): It is not rare nor surprising to see price repeat itself, Weekly time frame I have anticipated this breakout as we saw price previously breakout and distribute itself all the way to our Weekly support. I'm expecting Sellers to dominate as we are ready for a short opportunity, we do not see price breaking higher highs and higher lows weekly, in lower time frames we are gaining more reason to go short. A big push down (Impulse) would give us more confidence to enter this Distribution Phase. Fundamental Analysis: We do not have any Major News today that would put our idea into a 50/50 idea.. however we do have very important news happening tomorrow with the Greenbacks. Following ahead of Tuesday we have G20 News starting up & USD-CHN Trade War can easily affect all price action ideas. Stay updated with News and anticipate big moves happening. I''m not one to push this as much as this is just an Idea for Traders to see opportunity in but use very good risk management and be patient as the market does not just move Up, Down, Sideways.. as Traders we should expect fake outs. This is why having a Price Action Strategy with a set of rules can build confidence and a Highly Improved Trader. Best of luck to everyone this week...
Short
by RiosTrades