Distribution
Wyckoff Distribution Pattern on BITCOIN?!So this is just following a very basic Wyckoff schematic to BTC current price action. usually we see these break down, with I believe a great short entry if we get a 1/4hr close back inside the range with a TP at the bottom then take another if we fall out. Play these with caution and remove bias as we may just put in a spring and this would actually be an accumulation pattern. But so far looking like a text book distribution looking very similar to a lot of the formations we've been seeing on smaller timeframes for BTC for months now!! Definitely something you want to familiarise yourself with, can be an extraordinarily profitable tool to have in your arsenal upon early identification of these ranges! Obviously I have no idea how price will continue from here it could go on for even longer, it could just capitulate and fall immediately so my line don't take as gods word please hahahaha! Just giving an example of how it could play.
NZDUSD POTENTIAL SELL SETUP AT RESISTANCE OF CHANNELPrice is at resistance of channel and resistance area of distribution range. This a good place to sell to the support of channel or to midpoint of channel where partial profits can be taken. Consider also that since this is a distribution phase, a sell may be the better option to look for as a Decline most likely follows a distribution. In essence a sell position ensures you stay in the next possible big move of this market. As always, do your own analysis as this is not foolproof and of course, nothing is set on stone in forex. Goodluck and happy trading. Cheers!
Gold - Longterm Institutional SellOANDA:XAUUSD
Analysis & Trade Idea 💡
On the daily timeframe Gold seems to be in overall distribution from August the 10th after the market reached all-time highs. Key supply (support) and demand (resistance) zones have been highlighted in green and red respectively, it is worth noting that gold respects whole levels as points of entry for the sell as these correlate with demand (resistance) zones. The key point of interest on the daily timeframe is the daily buy to sell Institutional Candle, a potential swing trade has been highlighted which incorporates the 1950 whole level, this is also within the 78.6% discounted price range of the Fibonacci, in addition, the market will be able to sweep the liquidity created at the 1930 whole level given the market movers motivation to reach this POI., for this reason, I have a short term bullish bias before a sell-off initiating from this level, this would also fulfill the UTAD (Upthrust after distribution) of the redistribution schematic which started to form at the beginning of October and the LSPY (Last point of Supply) in the distribution schematic that started to form after the all-time highs were established in August.
Let me know your thoughts?
SUPPLY & DEMAND ZONES (sideways range, distribution followed) -Yurlo / Please hit that like button 👍
Currently in a sideways chop range since October 10th ~ looking for distribution (a drop) prior to 2020 US elections in November.
Don't get chopped out before the big move comes my friends.
Enjoy the rest of your week and have a great weekend.
Stick to your trading plan and trust yourself 👍
Distribution & Follow-Through DaysInvestor Business Daily model follows the model of distribution and follow-through days based on volume as follows:
Distribution days:
A distribution day is defined as a day in which the move by the index is moves -0.5% on stronger volume than the previous day.
Follow-Through days:
On Day 4 or later of the attempted rally, at least one of the key market indexes must deliver a strong gain in volume up from the previous day. That big gain in rising volume is the follow-through day, which confirms that a new uptrend is underway.
A follow-through day can't pick the exact day that a market bottoms, but it can get you in close to the bottom.
Because this model is intended to value the market health, and how market-makers are positioning themselves, this cluster historically signifies a more defensive market.
NDAQ shows perfect Wyckoff Distribution: Begin MarkdownNDAQ is of course highly correlated with NDX, QQQ, and relate tickers so if NDAQ looks bullish it is a sign that TQQQ and SQQQ will move predictably. If NDAQ is bearish that will have likewise opposite effect.
NDAQ came screaming out of the March low to set an advance into a buying climax. The initial give back of that buying climax sets up the Automatic Reaction and that helps define our zone of support, also called the ice due to how dangerous it can be when it breaks.
The support on the ice here was confirmed with a bounce of the 20 day moving average which lead to a lower high. That in itself is nothing too serious but subsequent to that price actoin slipped the 20 day and hit the ice again as a Sign of Weakness.
After the sign of weakness there was a Upward Thrust which didn't have the buying volume to continue. In other words, bulls where exhausted and could not continue the uptrend. In another sense, there was no one else to pump the bulls bags as buyers were unwilling or unable to continue the trend.
I like to use the On Balance Volume EMAs to evaluate this uptrend, peak to peak. I have tried using it on larger timeframes and it doesn't work for me, it isn't responsive enough on the monthly timeframes and my entries are too late. But this is a great resolution.
We see this uptrend was not supported with enough volume and the indicator shows a lot of classic bearish divergence which predicts a reversal. Also, OBV break of the 100 EMA is extraordinarily bearish circumstance and should not be taken lightly. Also on that chart is my VSTOP system I continue to tinker with. The MTF VSTOP flipping bearish is also... very bearish.
After the Upward Thrust the ice breaks. This is bad because if price action doesn't recover it basically drowns and sinks to the bottom. The ice has flipped from support to resistance and when price actin failed before even hitting the 20 day moving average we have a very bearish set of circumstances.
The bottom might be hard to find. DJI has set a lower high and SPX is double topping, both with falling volume so this isn't a bullish set of circumstances. (Technically a double top has peaks within 5% but I think SPX double top with a 5.7% difference is close enought to round down).
I am going to let this run for quite a while. I entered my SQQQ position a couple days ago and feel confident that I can let this run until I see some bullish divergence on the NQ1! or SPXU MACD on the 12h or I see NDX out of the bottom of the weekly or monthly bollinger band. My linked post below is one of my most painful post. I completely nailed the bottom reversal and then buggered up the trade by not letting my winners run and shorting too soon. That is one reason why I have incorporated the VSTOP and MTF VSTOP into my system to help steady my hands to the upside when the macro situation is so bearish.
20200908 NAS100USDHello again!
So, after what... 6 months of uptrend? and having crossed the uptrend channel, i believed we could start thinking on possible distribution in place. This is not just based on 1D chart, but having lot of study in bigger time frame (1W or 1Month ... even 6 months...)
So again, this is just personal idea and not financial advice! Use your own risk and if it works for you... dont forget to hit the donate button :P lol...
Timing match for February / April / May periods of 2021... Elections for an UTAD .. so jeje too many coincidences...
Ill be updating in case it follows or not the idea so stay alert and any question and comment are welcome..
Cheers!
-CharterX