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Distribution

Black Swan!Alright people, In my previous analysis i've pointed out this distribution schematic on a weekly timeframe. I've digged in further. Re-evaluating the whole structure since last October as distribution changes everything! The first step to confirm this schematic would be loosing 43.200. Once lost, we will enter in to the previous accumulation zone and POC of the whole distribution will be the next stop at 34.361 Once we loose 34k, next stop will be the Fib. zone at 24-27k. Everybody will be expecting a new accumulation at this point, but the fun will begin there. We should be looking for a continuation pattern first and that is redistribution which will end up with a black swan at 8.600 where the POC of the whole distribution awaits! - That's a 87% correction! Now, if 1.678% increase from Covid Crash at 3.880 to 68.997 was possible, 87% correction from 68.997 to 8.600 is certainly possible as well. That's still up 2.2x from previous black swan! And guess what, we will hit 140k after that! Because everybody would be rekt by then! Did you like my imagination?
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinMillio18
24
This Can't be Happening Right, Right?Hi all, On a weekly timeframe, bigger picture is matching a double top distribution which we have seen on the smaller timeframe recently. Not much to say really. This schematic suggests a mark down below 28.754 towars 24-27k and further after a weak bounce. It could vey well end up at 19.302 (70% correction) which looks impossible today. but remember Bitcoin was just $3.880 on March 2020. I don't want to be overly bearish, but this is what the schematics suggest. Markets are waiting for FED meeting on December 14-15 and this could trigger the real mark down of the mega structure as i've laid out here. Not loosing money, is making money in this market, so stay safe and use a stop loss.
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by BitcoinMillio18
21
What are Supply and Demand Zones and How to Trade with Them?What are Supply and Demand Zones? ▷ Demand Zone (Accumulation Area): Accumulation comes from a Latin word meaning to increase something over time. A strong uptrend can only exist if buyers outnumber sellers. During a trend, price moves up until enough sellers enter the market to absorb the buy orders. The origin of strong bullish trends is called an accumulation or a demand zone. Demand Zone is where traders are willing to buy aggressively because the balance has shifted to the demand side. Here, buyers are dominant and sellers weak. The demand zone represents a period of implicit buying, typically by institutional buyers, while the price remains fairly stable. This area is characterized by mostly sideways price movement. Before a trend starts, price stays in an demand zone until the “big players” have accumulated their positions and then drive price higher. This can be contrasted with the Supply Zone, where institutional investors start to sell. ▷ Supply Zone (Distribution Area): Bearish trends are created when sellers outnumber buy orders. Then, price falls until a new balance is created and buyers become interested again. The origin of a bearish trend wave is called a distribution or a supply zone. At Supply Zone traders are willing to sell aggressively because the balance has shifted to the distribution side. Here, sellers are dominant and buyers are weak. Support and Resistance Levels vs. Zones If you have an idea of how to trade with support and resistance zones, you might find supply and demand zones very similar. You won’t be mistaken; Supply and demand zones are natural support and resistance levels. You’ll often find supply and demand zones just below/above support and resistance levels. Types of Supply And Demand Patterns There are two types of patterns: “Reversal” and “Continuation” patterns. While a pattern is forming, there is no way to tell whether the trend will continue or reverse. As such, careful attention should be paid to whether the price breaks above or below the zone. ▷ Continuation Patterns If price continues on its trend, the pattern is known as a continuation pattern. We have two continuation patterns: “Rally-Base_Rally” and “Drop-Base-Drop” ▷ Reversal Patterns When price reverses after a pause, the pattern is known as a reversal pattern. The established trend will pause and then head in a new direction as new energy emerges from the other side (bull or bear). Reversals that occur at market tops are known as distribution patterns. Conversely, reversals that occur at market bottoms are known as accumulation patterns. We have two reversal patterns: “Rally-Base_Drop” and “Drop-Base-Rally” How to Find Supply and Demand Zones? On a price chart, the demand zone is characterized by sideways price movement on above-average volume. When a stock price doesn't fall below a certain price level, and moves in a sideways range for an extended period, this can be an indication to investors that the stock is being accumulated by investors and as a result, will be moving up soon. The demand and supply zones are encompassing the base on the beginning of the move. The most important thing is to first finding a sharp move in either direction, after which you can identify its starting point and roughly define the supply or demand zone: • Look at the chart and try to spot successive large candles. • Find the base from which price started the quick move. Usually, before that you have a small sideways move, that is where your supply / demand zone is. • Draw the zone It is very hard to be precise with those levels and here it is more of an art than science. To make it easier to identify these levels, you can use another tool for confirmation. How to Trade with Them? One way to trade with supply and demand areas is reversal trading. After identifying a previous strong market reversal, wait for the price to return to that area. If a false breakout occurs, the chance of seeing a successful reversal is extremely high. Some candlestick patterns such as "Engulfing", "Pin Bar" and "Tweezer Blades" can help you identify trend reversals. Be careful, trading in the opposite direction of the trend is very risky. Technical analysts typically recommend assuming a trend will continue until it is confirmed that it has reversed. Trend reversal trading can be a profitable way to trade the markets. However, like any other trading strategy, there is a correct and a wrong way to do it. Pros and Cons Being able to recognize whether an asset is in the demand zone or the supply zone is helpful to investing success. Demand Zone is the origin of a big rally in price. Identifying this area could help investors spot good entry points into an investment before its price begins to rise. Once the price leaves an demand zone, not all buyers got a fill and open interest still exists at that level. Supply and demand traders can use this knowledge to identify high probability price reaction zones. As with anything else, supply and demand zones have their cons, as well. Understanding chart movements such as those seen in the accumulation area can work well during times of relative stability. Still, prudent investors know to pay attention to larger economic events that can quickly reconfigure charts (like the covid-19 epidemic) Key Points • Accumulation / Re-accumulation zones can becomes distribution/Re-distribution zones over a period in the Stock Market • The narrower a supply/demand zone before a strong breakout is, the better the chances for a good reaction the next time typically. • Good supply and demand zones are quite narrow and do not hold too long, which shows strong imbalance between buyers and sellers. • The stronger the breakout, the better the demand zone and the more open interest will usually still exist. • Always look for extremely strong turning points. They are often high probability price levels. • Each time the price re-tests a supply/demand zone, more and more previously unfilled orders are filled and the level is continually weakened. Conclusions Supply and Demand Zones are a great way to identify areas of buying and selling as well as support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by BobRivera990
8
TWT – distribution phase!Hello, everyone! Last time we considered the Bitcoin price analysis and assumed that we will see the price growth soon. According to this I found very interesting pattern for TWT. TWT price now is forming the classical distribution phase. We saw all Wyckoff events on the chart. Now it is important to decide, if the price is going to form UTAD phase – the massive growth above the ATH before the downward movement, or not? I have 2 evidences that it is going to happen. The first one is our Bitcoin price analysis, if we assume the last altseason in this bull run, TWT price can easily reach the $1.80 before the correction. The second one evidence is the divergence between the Money Flow Index modified for the blockchain assets, which shows the whales purchases. We can see that despite the price is falling, MFI demonstrates higher lows. I don’t want to tell you that you should buy TWT right now, I just think that we should take profit from this coin with the further price increase to earn more money. This is actual for you if you bought TWT in the green zone on the MFI, when the institutional investors did it. You can also try the short term trade but you need to define the proper stop loss level according to price target $1.6 – $1.8. Investing in this crypto now is too risky because of bad risk to reward, it is obvious that whales are selling to you TWT on this distribution. DISCLAMER: Information is provided only for educational purposes. Do your own study before taking any actions or decisions at the real market.
by Skyrexio
5
Falling KnifeUnfortunately breakout scenario failed and our most important level 58k was lost. If we can't reclaim it by the monthly close, i expect further down side and mark down of the distribution range to complete. First strong support is below fib. 0.5(48.900) 47.500 / 47.600 Second and stronger support is at 43.160 weekly level between fib. 0.618 & 0.66 also near monthly support at 48.384 In case a Black Swan type action occurs, 36.964 is where the previous distribution POC is. When this down trend comes to an end, we will probably be looking at a head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder in the making. To the upside, as i said 58k should be reclaimed and green stop buy line must be crossed. Not much to say for now, there's no need to try catching the falling knife, so let's put the stop buy alerts and see how it unfolds. If you enter any long positions, use a tight stop loss.
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
22
Bitcoin - consolidation for this weekend (symmetrical triangle)Bitcoin - consolidation for this weekend (symmetrical triangle). Bitcoin has dropped below the SOW level. According to the distribution scheme of the Wyckoff, we have the LPSY level. As the price usually consolidates on weekends, I predict a certain formation. Moreover, there is no recovery from the recent declines. At 1h, you can also see that there is a divergence, which also indicates the need to rebound the declines.
by czupryn888
4
BTC Warning !!!! Possible Wyckoff Distribution BTC is currently forming a Wyckoff distribution pattern similar to Jan 2021 - Aug 2021 (The blue shaded pattern is a copy of the previous pattern for comparison). Please be mindful the timeline not going to be accurate. In another scenario, BTC will dump to 52-54k then pump as we expected. If BTC makes a HH and then HL, we should expect a massive dump where the accumulation will begin. This is not financial advice, please DYOR, and I'm going to pray that I'm wrong and this doesn't happen
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCafeClub
4
BITCOIN: The Worst Scenario!This presentation is for informational and educational purposes only; it should not be construed as investment advice of any kind. According to the daily chart , BTC still fighting for the level of $60K which may lead to reach to $75K all time high (according to the calculation of the target point using P&G for the last accumulation); and we may see a distribution in the market after that.. It could rebound at the $50K level and the price return above $65K so this chart will be invalidated; or it continue down to the next support which can be considered as a value zone to start accumulating again. Also, the fear and greed index shows greed in the market which indicates some major correction pending. Remember: Market is still uptrend, so the scenario will be canceled if the price makes a move towards $85K and breakout! This could be the worst possible scenario so the rest is all good :)
Short
by Akaai
Bitcoin Black Friday Special Discount!Hi all, Now that the distribution play has revealed itself, i'm looking for the mark down and completion of distribution following a reversal to the upside. We had a similar but different distribution play last year early September and the pull back ended at Fib 0.5. If this profit taking and bonus collection of money managers repeat itself, we can expect a similar behaviour. A pull back of ~20% That said, as much as i want to buy Bitcoin at 49k, the reversal of fib 0.5 is at 54.300 adjacent to previous markup range POC at 54.829. But the liquidation requires taking this level down and some more. At this point the previous top of last distribution perfectly matches a retest of this level at 52.666 This should happen within few days so a new accumulation range will be created which will magically complete by November 26th - The Black Friday. This analog is from the previous disttribution and see how accumulation matches Black Friday. Amazing! Let's see how it plays out! Trade safe and use a stop loss!
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
10
66.666Devil has it's own signature :) And 66.666 came up couple of times during the last week. This time it matches the mid-line of the upward channel. Don't get me wrong, i didn't work around this number, it was just very close to the intersections. So, my previous analysis is still in play and should this be a distribution, we will reverse at around 66.666 and complete the LPSY event with a reversal all the way down to the POC of the trading range at 61k where the most liquidity awaits and my long setup comes in to play. The bounce will be very critical as it should be a weak one that will fail at 63.333 (look at these numbers, i'm not hand picking them) So the long setup i gave yesterday is quite a tricky one that you should know when to exit or not! If 63k fails after the bounce and we loose the SOW at 57.820, the downside would be quite brutal, down to 57k first and 49-50k as the final target. If 63k holds, then this could be the shakeout before the breakout! So, the rest of November could be bloody as hell, where every bitcoiner meets the devil until the last stop gets hit. This scenario invalidates if we get a daily close above the mid channel (thick blue line) and move above towards the ATH. And then... 100k by new year / 144k early next year is still in play, just not in a straight line :) PS. There are a couple of sell the news event for today, taproot activation and Biden's infrastructure bill signature are both long time waited events. I don't trade the news, but the price has almost reached the critical levels too. So, don't long into the resistance! As always trade safe and use stop loss.
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
7
Swing Long SetupHi all, We are still in the upward channel and Bitcoin is entering the sideways trading range set by ST and AR. In between the two, the strongest support is at 60.943 which is the POC of this trading range for about a month now. The composite man will want to take down this support and liquidate longs before bouncing. That's where i'm planning to buy at 60.400. This way it won't take down the previous swing low at 60.050, so the market structure does not change. This will keep everyone bullish and create a front-run effect to feed FOMO who will be waiting at 60k to buy. Also it will coincide with NY opening on Monday! Bounce rally will end up somewhere above the AR ~64k, so everone will think we are going to moon. This will be the final LPSY event of the distribution range before mark down! If TOTT buys during this rally, then i will consider canceling the sell order and watch the target level for the swing failure before taking action. If not, this is where i will be selling. Downward target for this distribution range from pnf chart is between 50-57k, so i expect anything 57.xxx as the first conservative target to buy after this swing move. So, that's my plan for now. Let's see how it unfolds. Traget safe and use a stop loss.
Long
by BitcoinMillio18
13
URGENT! Limit Orders Cancelled, Here's Why!Hello, sleepless nights! I was searching for distribution schematics and found this uncommon but perfectly matching distribution schematic. Coupled with TOTT sell signal, i decided to cancel my limit orders and abide with TOTT, so i'm fully in cash. Bad news is, if we take down SOW, it's game over. Right now, we are still in the channel and let's hope we don't go lower than 57.820. I remember noting this level as a SOW, now it makes more sense in a distributional context. Right now we are getting rejected from the mid-line of this channel. 63.710 is the top of this trading range, so i expect it to be broken. Point of control is at 61k. This is the strongest level to hold with a small violation of the channel. I wish it would hold, but that would be too easy to catch. Bottom of the trading range is at 59.510 SOW is at 57.820 Last important level is 56.500, the infamous neck line that can put us in to coma. Loose this level and we can find ourselves at the vacinity of 50k. Not loosing money is making money, so i'll just wait and watch closely. The darkest hour, might be darker than you think :))) But hey, what do i know! Trade safe and use the f***ing stop loss!
Short
by BitcoinMillio18
21
UPST-- Time to go shortUPST-- bearish territory started. Might go down in waves. But the descend is on. The wild ride or more than 1000% gains since the beginning of the year are about to end. There will be a profit-taking cycle happening. Few data points, 1) 9 EMA crossing below 23 EMA 2) Price is not able to break above the trendline from recent highs. Forming lower lows on daily 3) Price is not able to break above 9EMA recently on 4hr and daily 4) 333 is acting as resistance from the left shoulder of the H&S pattern.... and in the distribution phase, as per stock cycles If you follow this chart, it is matching to the textbook representation of stock cycles. Will it go down before ER or after? Note: ER is on Nov 9th. It is time to watch this one. What do you guys think?
NASDAQ:UPSTShort
by nextgenm
1