Distribution
Bitcoin (BTC) - Range Top Distribution - 22/7/2022 ideaBitcoin is currently struggled to push through todays' resistance at 22650 and puked down to around 22600 which signals heavy selling.
We can also observe some major breaks of bullish structures which adds very strong confluence and probability to this idea.
I'm long bitcoin againI have a few indicators that tell me whenever i should accumulate or distribute.
On the Weekly timeframe:
1. Does my Accumulation/Distribution band show Red or Green.
If Red:
2. Is RSI above 70 and RSI SMA above 50?
3. DISTRIBUTE
If Green:
2. Is RSI under 30 and RSI SMA under 50?
3. Is BTC price +- 80% down from ATH?
4. did 50 & 100 SMA Death cross happen?
5. ACCUMULATE
There is a few more things i take into account but this is the minimun needed that worked in the past and i believe will work again in the future.
For now i'm DCA'ing in slowly untill we see a Death cross on the 50 & 100 SMA AND/OR a drop to -80% from ATH.
If you have any questions feel free to contact me
For Investors in gold nothing shinesI drew a huge channel, it looks like gold has already worked out, the fact that gold has broken ATH is just a bait ..
Should have bought in 1970.
Investors in gold do not shine until 2030. If you buy gold at 1450 you can earn up to 50% in the medium term, but the problem is that at that point you can buy anything and earn at least 50%. Judging by the schedule, there will be no hyperinflation until 2030, you can sleep peacefully and keep your dollars.
Alternatively, strong inflation could be elsewhere, perhaps in commodities. Until they are pumped up, gold will not seriously rise in price. Life will rise in price, but gold will not help you in any way. During this time, all known gold bugs will either die or get acquainted with Mr. Alzheimer, in principle, this is logical. Peter Schiff 60? It's time for him to take profits.
Markdown phase Hey all, I think GCO is in the beginning phases of a markdown phase. It is a retail stock(which I have a very bearish thesis on through year-end). I'm not currently short on this stock, but I would jump at the opportunity to get short should it get back into the high 50's. Considering it ran over 1000% from the pandemic low to its highs, it has a lot of potential room down and is seemingly out of steam. It has over a year's worth of buyers overhead that will look to sell and push down the price as it goes lower and lower; keep an eye on this one as it could move fast to the downside when the time is right. Considering I think the market will bounce in July(ahead of another leg lower), I am hesitant to enter short positions. That being said, I am definitely keeping an eye peeled on this name.
DEERE IN HEADLIGHTSHey guys,
As the other names in the market have been crashing, DE has always stood out to me for how well it has held up to this point. That being said, I do not expect this to hold up for much longer. Starting with basic fundamental analysis, DE is overvalued compared to its historical figures- the stock generally is usually at a single-digit P/E ratio, but currently rests above 16. On a technical analysis basis, the stock is extremely extended to the upside, is fresh off of a false breakout, and has a lot of room down before the year-end. In the immediate term, I expect the stock to hold up through July and maybe even see a little fakeout rally. That being said, I think the stock is entering a markdown phase and should be headed lower in a violent manner by August. This is backed by other distribution patterns in other agriculture names(CF, CAT) and in mutual funds such as MOO. I would not be surprised if this stock saw its pre-pandemic levels before year-end.
Disclaimer: I'm currently short on DE with a cost basis of $388/share and am looking to size up my position
$BTCUSD 1D_tkcross_rangeBitcoin remains range-bound. Distribution. Ichimoku, tkcross is signaling long, short term.
As for downside, 28000.00 is the next bear fractal.
Set targets, stops, alerts and call limit order for the week.
spot/call/limit: 30192.08
tp_01: 32383.96
tp_02: 34322.00
stop: 28605.00
never margin trade. Go well.
DOW JONES SELLING PRESSUREAs illustrated, it would appear that the markup phase is done on the Dow Jones for now as price entered a phase of distribution and broke out. I am anticipating nice selling opportunities for traders but as always manage your money wisely.
Will update as time goes on, stay tuned!
Good Luck.
God Bless!
IWM/RUT Wyckoff Distribution is BACK!?About 3-4 months ago, I mentioned that the Russell 2k was showing signs of distribution (huge consolidation before a downtrend). I outlined where big money was selling and where they flipped short. Since the breakdown, we have seen nearly 3 months of consolidation. One could argue that the consolidation was symmetrical with higher highs and higher lows. That, my friends, would be the makings of a BEAAAAR FLAAAAG. If this bear flag correctly plays out, the target to the downside would be about 170 which is former resistance AND a previous gap. Closing above the previous local high at 205 is probably a good stop out.
ATOM/USD 1D. The situation right now on the coin.#ATOM/USD 1D Binance. Updated the coin idea. I made a "global" analysis and described the situation for you.
Now I will describe it in text here. Pay attention to the interesting name of the coin - COSMOS (ATOM) . Here is an analogy similar to Terra (Luna). I think everything is clear here. The cosmos is big, the Atom is small (the particle that makes up the Cosmos and our material world as a whole). Hyperlink left the project page in CoinMarketCap.
This coin has been in accumulation since 2019 (history from the Binance exchange chart). Accumulation ~ 2 years.
After accumulation, an impulse occurred, the distribution began exactly near the accumulation goal (the average distribution price is the exact accumulation goal). Showed on the graph.
Also note how clearly the price "respected" (that is, reacted) to this level afterwards (a clear retest when breaking the distribution). I also painted it on the chart.
After leaving the accumulation, a large horizontal channel began to form (shown on the chart). Similar to Bitcoin (consolidation/sideways with lower and upper boundaries).
After the distribution in this horizontal channel (shown on the chart - Distribution), the price has clearly reached the goal of this distribution (also displayed on the chart).
An ascending triangle (rising lows and a flat top) was also formed in this large channel, which was subsequently broken down.
If this triangle works out, its goals are shown on the chart.
It is also worth noting that from the minimums of the accumulation, an upward trendline (purple) began to form, which was very jewelerishly broken down just when leaving the accumulation. There was a retest of this trendline.
All this is shown on the chart.
After the breakout and retest of the ascending trendline from the bottom up, a descending trend of the secondary trend began to form (red on the chart, also designated it - the secondary trend line).
If there is a breakdown of this trend - a reversal of the secondary trend to an upward one (breakout + the proof of breakout / retest).
Now the price is consolidating in a small range at the lower border of the large horizontal channel (possibly a repeat as in the summer of 2021). Pay attention to this point on the chart.
The price from the average values of a large accumulation is still at a good profit (now 155% as shown). That is, those who have accumulated are still in the black. Therefore, there is still a place to sell.
Also note that the volume gradually began to appear. And what this volume was at the peak of the fall (capitulation).
Potential levels from below as well as from above are shown on the chart.
Potential Distribution FormingNice BOS on the 10/15m on SPX, if we see this turn into a distribution and continue to fail the highs/break the lows i'll be looking for sells on NAS/US30...
If this is a Sign of weakness now we should get a push down (Tricking the early sellers) before a liquidity hunt up wiping them out before the move continues down... (If this turns out to be a true schematic)
Will probably happen during NYSE open (If it does) Let's see..
* Disclaimer **
These ideas I never trade until the end target with my initial lots, I focused on high probable entries with higher lots and use a specific partial taking strategy giving me a very high win rate and take most of my profits very early, I only leave a small % of my capital to run the entire trade. On the flip side im constantly monitoring LTF momentum and will close early if things change, these analysis's are for research purposes only.
CADCHF push to the supply and SELLLast week's price has been steadily rising up, showing some signs of Wyckoff's redistribution.
We're patiently waiting for the price to reach the 0.756 area, and if/ when that happens we'll be looking for SELL opportunities (expecting the price to reach 0.747 area). But we'll have to see a clear Break of Structure to the downside first (possibly on the lower time frames).
However, if the 0.757 zone is breached, we'll look for the structure formed and decide on the later moves.
Happy trading.
APPL Detecting Successful Trades Without Needing a SubscriptionI see a successful trade as a trade either makes money or mitigates losses and further loses. An example of this is the trade I made on may 17th and exited 5 minutes into the day of May 18th. The price dropped 5% further.
Long story short, I have thought APPL looked like crap since April 7th, when both Hull averages on the day and 4HR timeframe lined up in a bad way just days after APPL was set up in a bullish formation (with my indicators). To me, that kind of movement is a standard signal for significant downwards movement.
Possible downwards targets where I look for action. Key mention. When looking for a buy I expect nothing to bounce 100% anywhere. I almost ALWAYS look at price action at these areas. I never expect a bounce or drop for sure just because a line resides there.
Downwards targets:
118-122
79-88
I list the possible upwards targets in the video, but if somehow APPL does go up, it most likely has a lot of bumps on the way. Saying definitive upwards targets seems disingenuous.
The 2 Indicators I use are listed in the first 30 seconds of the video. By using only 2 indicators, this means that anyone can use this strategy to analyze on TV without needing to buy a subscription. I still recommend the subscription for analyzing, because I enjoy double charts.
DoubleHull by KivancOzbilgic (375 and 500 length Hull moving averages)
SMMA (200 length Smoothed moving average) Not the SMA! (Simple moving average)
If you'd like, you can check my Related Idea "Market Update: Being right is boring" below. I mention APPL at the 2 Minute mark.
I also added the Related Idea "How I Analyze the Market in 20 minutes." which gives a more in depth look with more examples of how I analyze the overall market using the 500/375 Double Hulls and several tickers. Check it out if you enjoy.
Take care and stay healthy yall.
Can this scenario repeat?Last time, the price moved slowly up after getting support from the SMA-200.
After that, the Sell Pressure Increased in the supply zone and the price dropped fast.
After a reversal in the demand zone, it gained support from the SMA-200 again.
Now we have to wait and see what the price reaction is after approaching the supply zone.
TRXUSDTPERP / BINANCE / 4H Distribution- BINANCE:TRXUSDTPERP
- Le prix à atteint un POI de 4H que j'ai posé.
Sur les plus petites UT le prix à testé l'OB en 15m, je tente une entrée pour trader une distribution, l'OB de 3m et mes TP seront les POI du mouvement baissier.
- Les Equal Highs que j'observe me montre que le prix atteindra mon POI.
BITCOIN HTF OUTLOOK (BEARMARKET)Here come my thoughts on the Bitcoin situation at a macro scale. 3 deviations (65k, 67k, 69k) to bait longs and tap liquidity in the market. We are clearly in a bear market on the HTF and I don't expect it to be over any time soon. Many sucker rallies happening but don't forget that these easily fade quickly in a bear market.
Since the beginning of 2022 Bitcoin has been trading in a range that looks like a redistribution range, again 2 deviations might be going for a third and final deviation in this range before finally seeing 30k's. Obviously order book showing lots of buy orders resting at 30k, there is no doubt we go below here to get everyone to exit their positions. This is where you will see the "bear market has started" news which was happening already before their eyes.
Now reasons as to why I'm calling 24-20k bottom:
CME Gap on Bitcoin futures
Daily and weekly demand zones
20k would be a retest of the old ATH from late 2017 that never got backtested
I want to entertain the idea that 2021 was the beginning of a big accumulation range/structure as we have been trading in a range on the HTF. If that is truly the case we have yet to see the "super cycle" everyone is talking about which will be something we truly have not seen before. Do with this information as you will!
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE [
Wyckoff Distribution TELLmany failed upthrusts occurred within the upper range and medium range of the channel. One major lesson I have learned with identifying a Wyckoff schematic is that ranges must be horizontal. Horizontal ranges would identify price levels. This is far more important than resistance levels. Though price and resistance may be the same, the concepts listed evolve around price still. Thus, this means that horizontal ranges are far more potent than angled ranges. This being said, now you can paint the real picture of strength and weakness at price ranges.
As you may see here, a big distribution is set in, we have a bullish stance at the BC, AR, ST level. The bias is a reaccumulation. However, it seems that we have sold into a minor sign of weakness. Price has then remained there in phase b, finally. We have confirmation of weakness as we go to retest the ST areas in phase a, failing to make a big upthrust. it is now that we are ready to move down.
It is evident that big money has sold off their shares to others.
XAUUSD Gold : Understanding recent 8 week price action! 28.4Hey guys!
Really important for me you read the text on chart to understand fully.
Accumulation phase means buyers are feeling out the market and price action is likely preparing for a breakout up.
Distribution phase means the buyers are offloading their stock, essentially taking profits, shorting traders also enter the market bringing price action down.
Usually, depending on the down-trend, there could be a re-distribution phase or two within the down-trend.
At the bottom of the down-trend we again have the accumulation phase initiate with potential upside breakout.
On the chart you will find real time review of the phases and bullish possibility is very valid supported by technical indications such as:
*RSI double bottom oversold
*Falling wedge pattern - consolidating highs and lows in a wedge shape down, bullish
*Connecting lows of the last 8 weeks
*Horizontal level of support
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