DIS
DIS BullFeeling bullish on DIS here lately. New Genie+ in parks will help bring in extra revenue, new rides and updated parks coming 2022. Imagineering getting a refresh it needs with the move to Florida from CA. Whats not to like? Chapek? He isn't my favorite so far but sometimes you have to crack some eggs...
$UPS $BA $DIS $BABA I OptionsSwing WatchlistUPS 4H I UPS possible ascending triangle. Seems to be testing the bottom of the pattern we can attempt to catch the bottom on this name with a tight stock below $206.
BA 1H I The breakout we wanted above $219 happened last week. BA can hit $230 resistance this week before pulling back as earnings approach on 01/26.
DIS 2H I Strong bounce on DIS at the bottom of our channel. We've picked up unusual activity betting it could fill the gap to $155. Watching a break above 01/14's high.
BABA 1D I Jumped to a high of $138.70 last week. Retraced as the markets pulled back and it is now holding support above $130. Possible breakout on the 15M time frame.
Disney | Fundamental Analysis | LONG ANALYSIS The Walt Disney Company has been completely crushed by the coronavirus pandemic. The House of Mickey was reluctant to close the doors to several profitable operations, including the theme parks. Management admitted the possible cash trough this could provoke and quickly took steps to shore up the company's balance sheet.
One action management took was to suspend Disney's semi-annual dividend. The move would have allowed the company to avoid sending billions of cash from its balance sheet. The halt was disclosed in May 2020, and remained in place throughout the pandemic, in spite of Disney's enhancing results. This has led some investors to speculate that Disney may resume paying dividends in 2022. Let's take a look at some of the factors that management may consider when deciding whether to resume paying the Disney dividend.
Interestingly, by forgoing the semi-annual dividend, Disney saves $1.6 billion in cash, based on the $0.88 per share dividend it paid in January 2020. That's $3.2 billion a year, which could go a long way toward protecting Disney's balance sheet from any disorder rendered by the pandemic.
When it comes to Disney's balance sheet, it had $15.9 billion in cash and $13.3 billion in accounts receivable as of Oct. 3. To put these numbers in context, Disney had the most cash on its balance sheet before the pandemic - $5.4 billion in 2019. To safeguard itself from any contingency due to the unforeseen essence of a pandemic the company keeps a small hoard on its balance sheet. From that cash hoard, it can pay a semi-annual dividend of $1.6 billion over three years before the cash balance drops to a pre-pandemic high. That's assuming, of course, that the company doesn't lose money on operations during that time.
The cash balance is not a restriction on Disney resuming its dividend payments. But what about cash flow from ordinary operations? In the fiscal year 2021, which ended Oct. 3, Disney brought $5.5 billion in cash from operations. Even after investing in items necessary to run the business, the company generated nearly $2.4 billion in free cash flow. That figure may be a slight limitation since few companies like to spend more on dividends than they earn in free cash flow. In this case, at the former rate, Disney's annual dividend would be $3.2 billion and would be more than free cash flow for 2021 of $2.4 billion.
Nonetheless, management may be ready to handle a slight inequality in the short term, given the company's huge cash balance and recovering business. Nevertheless, one evident factor that could prevent Disney from resuming its dividend payout is the direction of the COVID-19 pandemic. A rise of new cases of the disease caused by the Omicron variant could push Disney into recovery.
Disney could probably resume paying the dividend in 2022. Of course, the chances of resuming the payout at the end of the fiscal year are higher. That would give Disney time to assess any modifications in the company's recovery dynamics caused by Omicron or any other emerging option. Note, however, that it was not the coronavirus outbreak that caused Disney to suspend its dividend payments, but the government-mandated closure of its theme parks and several other businesses. As more people are now vaccinated against the coronavirus, further lockdowns may not occur, making it more likely that dividend payments will resume in 2022.
Mega-Bullish On The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: $DIS)The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It operates through two segments, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution; and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products. The company engages in the film and episodic television content production and distribution activities, as well as operates television broadcast networks under the ABC, Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brands; and studios that produces motion pictures under the Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures banners. It also offers direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, ESPN+, Hulu, and Star+; sale/licensing of film and television content to third-party television and subscription video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services by Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; Disneyland Resort in California; Disneyland Paris; Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and Shanghai Disney Resort; Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii; licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort; and provides consumer products, which include licensing of trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games. Further, it sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The Walt Disney Company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
Pirates Of The Caribbean RideDisney is dropping faster than Joe Bidens approval rating .
NEVER short the top, short the bounces!
$170 to $180 are great places to short IF we even make it back there.
This is going to be epic.
This will be more exciting than Disneylands Pirates Of The Caribbean ride !
Are you ready?
Do you have your alerts set?
Grab some popcorn ladies and gentlemen because shorting has never looked so sexy.
- Ninja
Disney 1 hour chart MA lines have just turn all uptrendDISNEY (1-hour chart) had higher lows on 21 Dec compared with 1 Dec, with SMA20, SMA60 and SMA120 moving uptrend indicating a possible bottoming up and reversal.
1D chart showing RSI divergence in Nov resulting in the lowest low of 142 on 1 Dec.
1H chart showing overbought signal now. Wait a while to enter a trade when the price retracted.
Buy @ 151
Stop loss @ 146
Profit @ 169
Profit to loss ratio 3.2
Disney | Fundamental Analysis | MUST READ ! LONG SETUPAs you know, Disney World is getting ready for the holiday tour season, and an influx of guests at levels not seen in two years.
Recently, the media titan's theme parks have been a positive aspect of its financial performance. The parks, entertainment, and products segment stunned analysts by returning to profitability two quarters ago, and park revenues virtually tripled in the quarter ended Oct. 2. There may have been some obstacles along the way, but the House of Mickey is making sure Disney World is all set to surge in business. Let's see what changes this week.
Residents of California must have heard the explosions coming from Disney's Hollywood Studios shortly afternoon on Sunday. It was just the sound of The Indiana Jones Epic Stunt Spectacular returning to the park for the first time since the resort closed from the pandemic in mid-March 2020. Due to quarantine issues and staffing difficulties, the corporation has not hurried to resume live shows since the park reopened. Nevertheless, they are slowly returning to the resort's four closed theme parks, and the Indiana Jones-themed extravaganza is a pretty big deal given the show's large capacity. If your objective is to keep the seasonally increasing crowd of visitors scattered throughout the park complex, you'll want to make sure they have something to do.
Another welcome development this weekend was the return of streetcars to the parking lot. Streetcars play an important role in moving guests from the huge parking lots to the entrance gates. Since most guests are walking through the gates, they will no doubt be glad to be spared the long walks to and from their cars.
In addition, Disney World will expand its hours of operation slightly over the next two weeks. Usually, guests staying at fine Disney resorts can get into the park 30 minutes before the official opening. During the holiday season, they will be able to get into the park a full hour earlier. This will help reduce early traffic at the turnstiles, which is certainly a good thing.
This is the first holiday season for Disney World with Genie, Genie+ and Lightning Lane+, which the company launched two months ago. The new park optimization app and the more contentious replacement of the old FastPass system at a premium price show that Disney is raising the bar when it comes to using machine learning to deliver more personalized recommendations.
Guests can use Genie for free but must pay $15 a day for access to Genie+, which permits booking return windows for access to the Lightning Lane expedited queues that replaced the old FastPass system. And for the two attractions in each of the complex's four parks that require the longest wait times, Disney has added so-called Lightning Lane+ -- guests can pay an additional fee for one-time access to one of these expedited queues.
Over the next two weeks, however, Disney will move several attractions from the Lightning Lane+ system to the Genie+ platform. It may seem like Disney is losing money by doing this at the busiest time of the year, but the fuss makes sense. Genie+ has been criticized by novice users who feel the key return windows fill up quickly. Adding some Lighting Lane+ attractions to the Genie+ options will help boost supply at a time when demand is skyrocketing.
Four weeks ago, Disney World suspended the sale of most annual passes to new customers. It was a rather unexpected move for Florida, but it's a strategy that has been used for years at Disneyland in California.
Annual pass holders are some of the biggest fans of the resort, but they also pay $1 to $4 a day for year-round access. This is in stark contrast to the high prices guests who buy single-day tickets have to pay. Disney also recently made changes to the annual pass system, specifically adding more blackout dates during peak periods for less expensive options. The suspension of annual pass sales -- and the introduction of additional restrictions on when they can be used -- will cause Disney World's average revenue per guest this season to be much higher than in previous years.
The unpleasant backdrop to all of this is that cases of COVID-19 are on the rise again in Florida, across the country, and the planet. The omicron variant is highly virulent, even among people who have been fully vaccinated.
Disney World is not about to close, however. The company has already learned how to deal with fluctuating COVID-19 cases since it reopened last July. It has precautions and measures it can take, which tend to work, allowing it to operate safely in the new normal. Guests will still come, and Disney, as a leading company in the entertainment industry, knows - the show must go on.
DIS Bearish Continuation Play Following Descending Triangle GapDescription
Been tracking the descending triangle that DIS was working since early MAR, with a short alert set and triggered on the lower boundary. It was a massive gap though (an indication of a strong break-out), so I have been waiting on a retracement before entry.
Today marks a solid rejection of the resistance set in NOV19 and retested before the gap into the pattern on 9DEC20' @ 154.5 , conveniently located at the .382 retracement following the start of this decline, thus triggering the short entry.
The implied move from the Descending Triangle takes DIS down to 136.
I am not a perma-bear by many means, but I am seeing the same things in almost every chart I look at. The rebound to near ATHs in the indexes earlier this week were only textbook retracements in a lot of the names that have made major bearish breaks in the last 3 months.
The VIX is also finding support at 20.
Long Put
Levels on Chart
SL > 154.5
PT : 136
*Stops based off underlying stock price, not mark to market loss
The Trade
BUY
12/31 145P
R/R & Breakevens vary on fill.
Tight Stops and Risk Management
Only invest what you are willing to lose
DIS setup with potential magic mountain profitsThere is a wolfe wave setup on thed daily time frame. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 189 with potential psych 200 tgt. These targets are expected before March 10, 2021.
Disney | Fundamental Analysis | Long Setup | Must Read ⚡️Walt Disney Company may have a variety of businesses under its corporate aegis, but almost every one of them has been severely affected by the onset of the pandemic. Disney management quickly rebuilt, accelerating the launch of its streaming strategy (led by Disney+) and strengthening its balance sheet.
Investors kept the faith through 2020, believing that tourism and travel would recover and, as a result, the company would have a tiered growth strategy for the future. But now a slowdown in streaming subscriber growth, as well as recent pandemic-related uncertainty, has caused Disney stock to pull back in 2021.
However, a deeper look at the situation will show that this is a great opportunity for investors to get into a company with unparalleled brands and a truly unique franchise.
The company said it expects Disney+ subscriber growth to slow down from the level it reached during the pandemic. But when the company reported Q4 earnings for fiscal 2021 on Nov. 10, investors were still surprised. In the three months ended Oct. 2, 2021, the company had attracted only 2.1 million additional paid subscribers. This accelerated a downtrend that saw the company's stock fall 17% year over year.
For investors who believe in the company's long-term outlook, this presents an opportunity that doesn't often fall to blue-chip stocks.
In addition, let's turn to the subscriber growth situation.
The news that investors paid the most attention to in Disney's recent quarterly report was the slowdown in Disney+ subscriber growth. But that single data point aside, we can see that the streaming service and other direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming options offered by Disney are performing well. Until November 2019, Disney only offered ESPN+ and Hulu services. Last year, the rollout of Disney+ was accelerated, and it grew quickly along with the entire DTC segment.
While the flattening of the growth trend may have spooked investors, Disney itself wasn't embarrassed. In a fourth-quarter earnings call, company executives assured investors that the company was still on track for its overall goal. Disney CEO Bob Chapek said: "We are confident that we are on the right trajectory to achieve the forecast we presented at last year's Investor Day - reaching 230 million to 260 million paid Disney+ subscribers worldwide by the end of the fiscal year 2024 and achieving Disney+ profitability in the same year."
With all the attention on Disney+ and the growing cable TV market, some investors seem to have completely forgotten about Disney's traditional businesses. The company relies heavily on travel, tourism, and consumers' desire for entertainment. Although recovery from the pandemic has been intermittent, there should eventually be a complete resurgence of a desire to visit theme parks, go on cruises, play sports and have fun. U.S. travel data show that air travel is now returning to near pre-pandemic levels, which is nothing short of encouraging.
Disney relies on cross-selling in various areas of its business. Sales of toys and character puppets keep kids interested in movies and television. Kids and parents want to visit theme parks, where the company continues to add new rides and attractions, such as Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge.
The Disney brand is unmatched, and its franchisees are also impossible to replicate. The recent stock decline should be seen as a buying opportunity for investors looking to hold onto the stock through 2022 and beyond.
NFLX: Inflection zone incomingReally perfect trade missed on NFLX today. These I find are fairly easy when the market environment is right. Bounced off of the 100sma on friday and traded RIGHT back up to the beginning of its latest runup on 10/20 today- to the penny. Would have taken that all day had I seen it. Fibs previously drawn. When I see setups like this on names I watch regularly, I will put alerts in so that I remember and do not have to watch closely.
If we can get a market bounce here moving forward in the week, I would def watch for daytrade/swingtrade probably really both or a daytrade-turned-swing-trade (meaning leaving on a smaller size to swing which I do often when the right momentum is with the names). I stuck an alert near the top of Thur-Fri candles of last week so that if/when it hits, I can reassess it to take back up 644 or at least the 10sma- a 10/100 sma sandwich/fib play. From there, maybe a short again, but being careful to look out for Santas sleigh coming into Christmas. All Aunt Edna wants for Christmas is another year of NFLX??
IF the market continues the selling and this does not work and we lose the bottom of today/100sma, we will head back down at least to the top of the channel between 479-573 where we spent the greater part of the 2nd half of 2021~ 200sma sitting around 562.
The reason I put my alert BEFORE the top of the thur/fri candles is because IF we cannot break above those, that is an excellent place to short and the momentum would probably break the 100sma taking us back down to the 200sma and if that breaks, to the purple channel.
The cliffnotes are: there is no trade. BUT, I am prepping for a trade ;)
DIS bottom into Seasonal Strength December and JanuaryThere is a daily wolfe wave setup in DIS. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 186 which is expected to reach this price target before March 24 (apex).
Disney is ready for the reversal, buy the dip $DISIt hit the floor along with SPY last week and with the rising 5 day and 20 trend about to reverse. This will pop back up really soon. RSI 39 with 50 resistance that it needs to break, momentum is currently on its side. Current support at $148. Buy and keep adding on any dips you see. This is a big swing position. $DIS
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DIS stopped selling annual passes101 bad news101 lose customers Walt Disney World has temporarily stopped selling most annual passes less than two months after reviving the program following a pandemic-related pause.
Of the four types of annual passes that theme-park visitors can purchase at Walt Disney World, the three most expensive options are now listed as currently unavailable but are expected to return at some point next year.
The one annual pass that is still being sold, the Pixie Dust Pass, is only available for Florida residents and comes with blackout dates during the holidays when it cannot be used to enter the parks.
When Disney DIS, -2.13% announced that it was overhauling the annual-pass program at Walt Disney World in September, it warned that it could pause sales periodically. Travel experts are now calling this the new normal, thanks to a new system put in place amid the pandemic that requires visitors to Disney theme parks to make reservations in advance of their visit — even if they have purchased tickets or annual passes already.
“Unfortunately, the end result is less people will be able to visit Walt Disney World during the holiday season, and many that were planning to give annual passes as Christmas gifts will have to come up with something else,” said Alicia Stella, owner of travel website Theme Park Stop. “Next time, a little warning from the company would be nice.”
Disney’s theme parks are still operating at a limited capacity, though the number of people admitted into the parks each day is much higher now than it was earlier in the pandemic. Earlier this year, Disney CEO Bob Chapek signaled that the company expected the Florida parks to be back to full capacity by the end of 2021, but that was before the Delta variant caused a surge in cases nationwide.
According to Walt Disney World’s website, the company has also suspended ticket sales for select dates throughout the holiday season.