Get started

Demandandsupplyzones

US dollar index holds key support ahead of US inflation reportThe US dollar was falling ahead of the midterm elections in anticipation of a Republican Senate and / or House. As the Dems have performed better than expected, we have seen a reversal of these pre-emptive moves on the eve of the US inflation report. Expectations are for core CPI to soften (slightly) - but what if it doesn't? Inflation elsewhere continues to surprise to the upside, and with the dollar holding above key support then the path of least resistance could be higher, unless Reps take 'da house' and Senate ad inflation comes in softer than expected. DXY held above the 109.60 support zone and produced a 2-bar bullish reversal. A bullish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2). Bulls could seek to enter long on retracements within yesterday's candle and place a stop beneath the cycle lows and target the monthly pivot point. But I'd also be looking for evidence of a swing high up to ~112 - but for now the near-term bias remains bullish.
TVC:DXYLong
by CityIndex
GBPUSD H1 potential long positionGBPUSD has moved bullish for a month and a half (lowest on sep26) if price backtests demand zones (which are given on chart, the green block) and appears apparent signal, consider placing long position TP approximately set RR2 Personally prefer waiting for price backtests lower demand zone Placing order at upper demand zone please confirm "bullish signal appearing" US CPI will be announced on this coming Thursday, to avoid the voliate, can consider manually TP if you place the order. All are personal opinions, not investment advice!
by Aki_0123
3
thought on Gold next week. Head and shoulders are coming?Gold has crazy moved down on Friday and already broke the weak support at the blue order box. Typically, in basic structure we should ignore this zone for valuing a long position as many as possible whatever it forms (demand,supply,support,resistance) since it is the first band after price has move down and there is a stronger demand zone nearby. btw the previous demand zone in the green order box is still valid? If so, we are looking forward to seeing a typical head and shoulders pattern. we depict that price is during the processing of molding right shoulder, possible target at the green horizontal ray. - PS. this setup should be failed if price consolidated and played around at its bottom (wedge, triangle.. in lower timeframe) on Monday bs lack of bullish momentum it's clearly this is not a valid reversal zone.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLong
by vinnie69
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment. First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand. Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun. The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late. Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner. Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered. Be ready my friends! And pray that I am wrong! Stew
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
2
SPY - Short term bullish - Quick TradeHello Friends, AMEX:SPY has shed a lot of value in a week but there seems to be some good news if you're looking for a very short term bullish trade. We will have to understand supply/demand levels on multiple time frames. In a daily TF, Price opened gap down, approached a daily/weekly demand zone and closed within top 33.3% of a candle range(Bullish Pin bar candlestick). Bullish pin bar with a good volume suggests the presence of demand. There's a gap to be filled. So our first target is at the upper bound of a gap around 373.44. I like to use anchored VWAP as a dynamic support/resistance and also as an additional confirmation for the target. In a downtrend, I drop anchored VWAP from a recent swing high to find dynamic resistance level which is currently at 386. There's a visible supply zone between 381 and 390. So if price is able to breach our first target then the next safe target would be at 381. Target levels are marked on the chart below. Zooming into 45 minutes TF, it is visible that before price opened gap down, there was a supply zone forming. Our first target is actually a lower bound of a supply zone. Additionally, a bullish RSI divergence is also visible which is an additional confirmation for price reversal. Similar confirmations are found in 15 minutes TF as well. Remember, Overall market is still bearish so you have to be very nimble while trading against the trend. A good trader always find opportunity in any market conditions! Do you agree with my analysis? Please let me know your thoughts by commenting below and follow me for more such ideas. Happy and safe trading! :)
AMEX:SPYLong
by PriceActionTrader1
4
Brent oil - Price Action Analysis Due to Ukraine-Russian war, CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT price was sharply accelerated But from Jun 2022 , price was making lower lows after unable to close the high and defeated. So how far it can go, for that we need to understand price action in higher time frame. Weekly TF (higher Timeframe) : After Pandemic deep , Price clearly making higher- highs and also bounced from taking support of dynamic trend line. At the end of the week , Price may get support from the same dynamic line but still we didn't get confirmation whether it will continue the trend or it is a reversal? That visibility is available in daily TF. Daily TF : After knowing from the higher TF (Weekly), we get a initial idea how's the price was reacted from dynamic trend line and also it is making falling wedge with structure of LH -LL. There are two possibility we can get over here : 1. Either this bounced from the trend line will sustains and price will break this wedge structure and makes Higher - highs. (P -1) 2. Price will again reject from the mention levels and following the trend. (P -2) In Conclusion , My observation still at the down side because there is no clear direction of structure breakout or change in price-action that supports any bullish price action. Buyers can wait till price comes at demand zone or you can follow the price action. Sellers can get opportunity when price reject from above mention levels and clear confirmation in terms of the volume and momentum. If you have a different opinion, please share your thoughts in the comment section. If you like my ideas, please show some appreciation with a like and follow me for more such trade ideas. Happy and safe trading! :)
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENTShort
by vraj8597
YEN DROPPED but worried about BOJSome news on the wire source :(bloomberg) Yen Falls After Hawkish Fed, Awaits BOJ Decision: Inside Japan By Chikako Mogi (Bloomberg) -- Yen falls after the Federal Reserve raised rates and provided a more hawkish outlook for its future rate path. Government bonds are likely to follow Treasuries higher ahead of the Bank of Japan’s decision.  USD/JPY up 0.2% at 144.31 after rising as much as 0.7% to 144.70 Wednesday Short-term bullish flag forming and sets up for a breach of 145 USD is strengthening after hawkish FOMC and if BOJ stands pat, USD/JPY may rise toward upper 144 levels, says Yuta Suzuki, vice president at MUFG Bank in New York If BOJ’s Kuroda changes his tone over the weak yen or suggests that the weak yen may impact monetary policy, USD/JPY could drop by 1 yen Dot plot suggests Fed is determined to keep policy rate above 4% next year regardless of economic conditions While intervention wariness remains, traders may need to raise their buying levels from around 140 if probability of monetary policy action from Japan is low daily chart 4h overall BULLISH
by Junmadayag
3