A Do Or Die Moment For The S&P 500The next 3-4 weeks are going to change the long-term trend direction of the "S&P 500". The equity index is now at the edge of the edge of staying within the uptrend or starting a bear market.
On Monday, April 2, 2018 most of the European stock markets were closed and bears used this situation to drag the "S&P 500" strongly lower that day. On Tuesday, April 3 the German "DAX" index reopened after Easter Holiday and continued the uptrend it started the previous week. This helps US stocks to rebound from Monday''s lows.
The TRIX indicator shows a bullish momentum divergence, which means the bulls have could have a small edge, if this week closes strongly up. Otherwise the "S&P 500" is going to start a downward spiral of new lows in the next months.
Bullish near-term odds allow the following setup:
Long entry: 2575
Target: 2740
Stop loss: 2542
Risk/Reward: 5
Decision
BTC STILL BULL 9.1/10A break up here could reveal a very strong bull fractal repeating - if thats the case buckle up.
A break down from here would place us on the top of the last channel 9400 - a likely spot for a sizable bounce.
WARNING: A break below 9400 and i am no longer bull. I am neutral from 9400-8800. A break below 8800 and im back to the biggest bear in the woods.
Regardless of the outcome, this chart gives you the tools visually to know what to expect.
Ripple (XRP) Long-term Trend Analysis. Which Direction Now?I've been long BINANCE:XRPBTC since November of 2017. It's pretty different than other cryptos, at least in a sense. The long-term goals of bringing efficiencies to the bloated traditional financial industry, in my opinion, means that BINANCE:XRPBTC has nowhere to go but up in the long run. We've seen major movements as BINANCE:XRPBTC rapidly moves on the charts, making it very difficult to predict prices movements. So as someone that looks long-term on this trade, I'm not looking to trade every little movement, but the longer trends that we can see using volume spikes and moving averages. The cross that we saw on the 10th did not have the volume behind it that previous crosses have had and the price is right around the initial cross point.
I'm going to keep an eye on BINANCE:XRPBTC here. I'm not convinced that we'll rally again, only time will tell.
I'd like to hear your thoughts on BINANCE:XRPBTC ! Will we see a rally or are we going to see a dip? Please comment below, as the more input we see, the more informed we are!
*** This is not a recommendation to buy or sell, this is for educational purposes only! ***
BTC prediction As you can see, BTC has just finished a classic ABC correction move following a much larger 12345 Elliot impulse down in a bear trend.
I expect some sideways consolidation and a nice battle between bulls and bears.
It's hard to make a solid prediction up versus down at this time, but what is likely is whichever bias is chosen it's really going to take off quickly.
If BTC moves up, it will reach another critical decision around the 9.5-9.6 k range. Bulish movement up beyond here would tend to confirm an official reversal. It could also be rejected from this level back to its dynamic sloping support.
If BTC moves down, it could restart a new bearish impulse supercycle downward, testing the bottom to form U-shaped double-bottom or perhaps a more violent lower-low with a V-shape.
Time will tell! Either way, should be fun to watch the King as usual :)
This is for education and speculative purposes only and is not meant to serve in any way as investment or trading advice for any financial means.
XRP, Decision time.Another big sell off for CME futures settlement? Or will they come back and buy in prep for the next contract settlement? This could also drag out and consolidate into next week and if that happens you can almost guarantee a huge price surge toward the end :). I'll buy again at the bottom, if we get breakout past 1 Fibbo or if we survive the settlement consolidated. Thoughts?
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Decision time for day tradersBitcoin BTCUSD Decision to make here for day traders and others if running a decent profit today
Trying to hold up off a tiny line of support that
once broken should lead to an acceleration to downside and
help achive the minimum downside target at 6312....so tricky
here with spreads...if short and day trading from th sell point
at 6943 we should be oK, but some might consider a stop not
too far above 6830 to trap in 100 points or so ..it can whip
back higher to the break level at 6943 one last time,
potentially...it's not easy to decide with spreads so wide,
though.
Whilst below 6943 it's still in a bad way but if continues to
hold at the lows it's obviously running out of short term sellers
and can stage a quick counter rally. Alternatively a take
profits now at the lows but be ready to short again hard on a
break below 6700 aiming for 6312 minimum downside target
$BTCUSD - Decision TimeObserving the yuan shorting situation as it affects all markets especially bitcoin. It's possible that the current China Exchange ban FUD is a decoy for an even bigger factor which is at play. Bitcoin will follow the traditional markets which has been acting very weak as of the shorting ban.
Tomorrow is 9/11, lets see.
Good luck :)
Decision Point on GBPUSD (360+ Pips)Hey all! What we can see here is a very clear channel that the pair has been trading in since the Brexit vote almost one year ago. From this, we can use fibonacci retracements to outline very clear and distinct levels that the price is using to bounce off of. As of today, the price seems to be entering a rather important decision point where it may attempt to break through the 0.618 level - indicating a rather significant bullish run for the pair. The alternative is that it may attempt to test the 0.5 level which is the border between the two adjacent channels, and from here it can either bounce upwards to test the 0.618 level again or it can break through it downwards indicating that the pair will likely stay in this lower channel.
The GBP has been rallying as of late but the USD has also been gaining some traction. I would predict that although the USD has shown signs of life, it may be a short lived run compared to the GBP. So with regards to this structure, I would say that the price is headed back down to the 0.5 level to test it before rallying up and over the 0.618 level. The RSI indicates that the pair is very oversold so it seems to support this prediction of a brief bearish trend followed by an OVERALL bullish trend. I stress that word because we can always expect some consolidation and brief reversals off the major S&R levels outlined here. Assuming the price breaks through the 0.618 level, we'll be analyzing the upper channel and using its fibonacci retracements (marked in blue) to determine the possible targets.
Upper play
Entry: 1.29656
TP: 1.30953, 1.32023, 1.33320
SL: 1.29042
Lower Play
Entry: 1.28618
TP: 1.27613
SL: 1.28910
USDEUR: Back in neutral awaiting next signalUSDEUR: Dollar is holding up off the lows but still vulnerable whilst trapped within the down-wave. Either it breaks out and should be followed or it breaks down and should be followed. No decision to make. Not overbought now or oversold...so follow the move when it comes...
USDCADNon farm payroll has kept me away from the USD pairs as this pair will be very volatile and unpredictable in the way it moves however I have still analysed it. On the 1 hour window im expecting price to keep moving within the side trend for now and potentially come down to 1.31403 and break below down to1.31073, if not it will come down to around 1.31403 and then bounce back up and continue along the side trend. More fundamental analysis may be required due to this news (Non farm payroll)
Friendly Unique Forex Reminder to NOT Trade TodayHi there fellow traders, I hope you are all having a great day and a profitable week thus far. This week has been a rough week to trade with all the major economic news events. Last nights the BOJ announced their interest rate decision which they left unchanged and now today we have the interest rate decision from the FED. It is expected that they will leave rates unchanged and therefore the statement will be key. Depending on the view of the FED, hawkish or dovish, will ultimately push the markets. That all being said, it is a complete crap shoot. It is likely that the FED will remain hawkish, but we just never know. As traders it is our goal to facilitate an edge in the markets where the odds sway in our favor. By attempting to trade the FED interest rate decision you are attempting to trade during market conditions where the odds are overwhelmingly against you; that is gambling. Don't be a gambler... be a trader..
We suggest you turn off the computer and get outside. Enjoy the day!
Decision point at the top of a 7 month resistanceHi guys, just going to keep calling out trades as I see them. Will try to keep my directional bias as an aside though. We'll just try to find some good spots to trade and leave it at that. If it's screaming we'll scream.
Anyway been looking at this a few days straight now and probably been a little too active on the lower period signals. Was really chasing shorts which in hindsight still seems okay, but don't let that bias sink in. The good news is we're on the right spots. We're seeing price action from these levels, so far.
For this spot, I need to detach my opinion so we can just talk about the spot. I'll post the trade scenarios below, which are fairly set now, and see if we can find an edge on direction as we go.
I love the bullish trend here but call me a pessimist it's too close to call in the short term.
EURUSD - ECB Rate Decision - Long setup Cypher pattern on daily tf.
Filled long in Asian session respectiong the pattern.
Looking to add more around the flat bottom of ichi cloud (traditional one last FU move before the squeeze)
Target: Flat top, ~ 0.382 fib. retrace.
Notice: Flat Top/Bottom Kumos
The flat top or bottom that is often observed in the kumo is key to understanding one piece of the kumo's "equilibrium
equation". Just like the "rubber band effect" that a flat kijun sen can exert on price, a flat Senkou span B can act in the
same way, attracting price that is in close proximity. The reason for this is simple: a flat Senkou span B represents the
midpoint of a trendless price situation over the prior 52 periods - price equilibrium. Since price always seeks to return
to equilibrium, and the flat Senkou span B is such a strong expression of this equilibrium, it becomes an equally strong
attractor of price.
My Idea on FOMC USD rate hike decision for EURUSDSo the time is coming, this is the last chance for the FED to demonstrate that the US economy is strong enough to withhold an interest rate hike and continue to show improvements.
there are many political and idealogical factors behind this decision and this is a worry to investors and speculators that think this rate hike should not go ahead and that is only happening because of NON economical influences.
lets see first, prior to the 16th meeting >>>
the pair could well continue its bullish momentum, revisiting the high of 1090 and even penetrating all the way to the 1200 area where the down trend of this year has been established.
also prior to the result and news release, some big brokers and desks will take positions to ensure they have enough liquidity to provide dollars to those who will buy it, so this will produce a few big EUR orders.
Take a look at the CME options expiring at the NY cut, this will give you a good idea of what level is the market expecting.
WITHIN THE MEETING/DECISION
the key word here is VOLATILITY, while traders and brokers decide whether the statement is hawkish or dovish, you will probably see some spikes up and down as they hedge/cover and close their positions currently open.
no one will open brand new positions during the event unless is to cover their large contracts to prevent losses
here is when you need to be careful with your SL, if this is hit during the event then stay out until you can clearly asses the decision. bear in mind that experts analysts have great tools that electronically analyse the statement and is capable to identify different words and highlight this for the banks so their capacity of response is going to be pretty big nevertheless unlimited.
AFTER THE DECISION
here is when new positions will be opened, as liquidity returns and new players enter the market, big banks will look to find out how the decision affects their long term outcome and new positions could be undertaken over the next few days.
looking at where the initial spike ends up you can get an idea if the outcome was scenario A B or C but still.. this may not probe to be the case and the pair may reverses within a few days of the initial euphoric move.
SO IN SUMMARy
- Prior to the event, keep an eye on positioning
- during the event, volatility could kill your positions, ensure you are covered
- after the event, reach the same conclusion than the big traders is essential, load yourself up with good news provider
- if you are not sure, or you have no capital, or you feel insecure about trading in historic events, please do not trade this event.
HAPPY TRADING
HAPPY XMAS!
any questions, please ask below :)