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DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Analysis 5-9 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 2.82%, down from 2.98% last week according to VDAX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1st percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 1th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 1.94% movement Bearish: 2.38% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 17.9% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14920 BOT: 14050 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 75% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14600 25% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14333 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates 66% bullish trend Daily timeframe indicates 80% bullish trend 4H timeframe indicates 66.6% bullish trend
XETR:DAX
by exlux
German DAX index: Pausing for a breatherThe German Dax index rose 25% from its lows in early October, delivering nine weeks of gains and outperforming US stock indices. The bullish price action has been rather sharp for a market that had a 27% decline from its top in the first nine months of the year. In November 2022, the Dax saw overbought RSI for the first time in over a year and the index also managed to surpass quite easily its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, as well as a significant 50% Fibonacci threshold of 2022's low to high. As prices now meet fierce resistance in surpassing the 61.8% Fibonacci level around 14,560 points, a pullback is possible in the following weeks. The first area of support is located at the psychological level of 14,000. This level might serve as a solid test for validating the 50% Fibonacci level breakout occurred in November. If the Dax fails to remain above 14,000, bears may gain impetus and push the price down below 13,500 (38.2% Fibonacci and 200-day moving average). Currently, the strong 61.8% Fibonacci level resistance dominates the upside. If prices broke over this level, the June high of 14,700 would be the next resistance. However, with two important central banks meeting in less than two weeks (Fed on the 14 and ECB on the 15), the upside room for bulls may be limited here. 
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by Capitalcom
DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022 We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 3.05% , down from 3.16% from last week. According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 6th percentile, while with VDAX we are on 1th percentile. Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be : In case of bullish - 1.99% In case of bearish - 2.39% With the current IV calculation, we have currently 17.9% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14900 BOT: 14000 At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week: 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 14300 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 14580 Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 66% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 DAX Volatility Analysis 21-25 Nov 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.08%, raising from 3.07% of last week , according to VDAX data (DAX Volatility Index) With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 1th percentile, while according to VDAX, we are on 4th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 2.05% movement Bearish: 2.38% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 21.1% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 14837 BOT: 13953 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 27% probability we are going to touch previous low of 14150 73% probability we are going to touch previous high of 14450 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently 67% of the weekly moving averages are in a bullish trend, and a combination of moving averages and oscillators are in 37% bullish stance
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 DAX Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022 Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 3.22%, down from 3.33% of last week. From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 0.5th from ATR and 17th from VDAX index. With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be: 1.99% for bullish 2.49% for bearish With the current IV, we can expect with a 81.8% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 14772 BOT: 13820 Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have: 74% to hit the previous weekly high of 14250 27% to hit the previous weekly low of 13380
XETR:DAX
by exlux
German DAX trending higher Daily Insight Commentary: Monday - German Industrial Production m/m beats forecast this follows Friday’s strong September factory orders data German DAX +12% since October 13th Higher tops and higher bottoms on price indicates short term uptrend taking shape (daily chart) , however resistance in front of current price may push price lower before continuing any further advance. Current price 13,441 Key resistance at 13,555 , a break above resistance places 13,750 in sight for longs with a short term view (5 to 25 days), while short sellers may be aiming for a retest of the 12,950 support spotted at the 38.2% retracement from the 4 week high.
SKILLING:DE40Long
by Skilling
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 7-11 November 2022 We can see that this week our volatility is at 3.45% which declined from 3.59% last week. Currently according to ATR we are on 36th percentile, and according to DVOL we are on 15th percentile, indicating in both cases, that we are currently is a quiet market. And as a matter of fact we can that this was case for the last weeks but at the same time , one has to be aware that during this "quiet times", things can change radically. Now, based on the implied volatility data that we have for this week, lets look into further details. We can see that currently there is 18.2% chance, that our candle is going to close at the end of the week either above/below the next channel TOP: 13880 BOT: 12920 This can also be translated as a 81.8% chance that the market is going to move within this established range. At the same, looking at the previous high/low values of the candle, and taking into account the entire history available of data, we can expect that there is going to be a 73% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of 13500 26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of 13000
XETR:DAX
by exlux
Porsche: Ready to Race?Instead of stepping on the gas pedal, the Porsche stock corrected as soon as it touched our tourqoise target zone. We predict that the course continues to drop into the red zone between 56.44€ and 44.06€, until it completes the red wave (2). Following the correction, the trend should head towards the resistance at 69.20€. In an alternative scenario with a 35% chance, the Porsche stock has the opportunity to push for a rapid turnaround now and exceed the 69.20€ resistance mark to gain further pace on the upper side.
XETR:PAH3Short
by MarketIntel
DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 DAX Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 7.3%, increasing from 7.18% of last month. This is currently placing us in the 70th percentile according to ATR and 91th according to VDAX. Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is: BEARISH Candle : 5.3% BULLISH Candle : 5.14% With this in mind we can expect with a close to 16% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel: BOT: 12385 TOP: 14302 Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 13300 (already happened yesterday) 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 11900
XETR:DAX
by exlux
DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 DAX Weekly Volatility Forecast 31/10 - 04/11 2022 Currently the volatility for this week is around 3.82% , up from expected 2.7% last week. According to ATR calculation, currently the volatility is located around 50th percentile. Under this circumstances the expected movement of the candle is : BEAR : 2.49% from the opening point of the weekly candle BULL : 1.84% from the opening point of the weekly candle At the same time, currently there is 20.2% that the movement within this weekly candle is going to break and close either above or below the next channel: TOP: 13617 BOT: 12891 Lastly, taking into account the previous weekly high and low there is a : 75% chance that we are going to touch the previous week high 25% chance that we are going to touch the previous week low
XETR:DAX
by exlux