Technical Patterns of Reinvention: GENYSE:GE reported earnings yesterday and had a minor gap up to the high of the sideways range with some selling for profit toward the end of the day. This company is reinventing. Momentum Runs have developed out of Dark Pool Buy zones for swing trading since the last time it was mentioned.
Darkpools
Dark Pools Accumulating Biotech: STOKDark Pools are accumulating some biotechnology stocks for mutual funds and ETFs based on this new technology. HFTs are chasing this accumulation.
NASDAQ:STOK is now near the price when more professional traders are likely to swing trade. It has a very high Percentage of Shares Held by Institutions and the bottom is completed. It may be a potential candidate for a watchlist for this industry, IF the industry fits your needs for short-term trading or long-term investing. It may also turn into a position trade if platforms develop.
This is a Weekly Chart so all the history of recent price is visible. The peaks of bounces upward within the downtrend are where the stock may stall and go sideways as it moves up.
AMZN Under Pressure to Offer a DividendInventory adjustments are underway for $NASDAQ:AMZN. These adjustments are minor as Dark Pools are holding AMZN long-term, but there are other opportunities to boost ROI in younger companies.
AMZN needs to provide a dividend now that it is a Dow 30 stock. The mild rotation is a gentle reminder to the Board of Directors from their most critical and important investors, the Giant Buy Side Institutions. AMZN is the only fortune 500 company on the S&P500 that doesn't provide a dividend YET. The company's CEO is seasoned and aware that the Board must soon offer dividends, as it is no longer merely a "growth" company.
The pressure is increasing to force a dividend by the Giant investors. This should happen this year. There are no buybacks going on right now either. So the lowering of inventory is a warning to get this done. The Buy Side has the clout to influence the Board's decisions. This would benefit all investors big and small.
The support is at the lows of the red box on the chart, as indicated by the gap down white candle that quickly ended the previous selling by smaller funds.
WHEN, not if, AMZN announces a dividend, there is likely to be some brief momentum activity to the upside.
COST: Technical Strength Ahead of EarningsMuch of the Consumer Defensive industry and most Discount Stores have been in decline due to rising inflation. Many stores are struggling with lower revenues due to higher costs and their customers being more frugal during rising inflation periods.
NASDAQ:COST is an exception with its massive strategy to buy food and common consumer necessities directly from producers and manufacturers and then use the Costco private label, Kirkland. The quality of the packaged food or clothing or other consumer product is the same, but with its ability to buy huge quantities, it has higher revenue growth after the pandemic that other stores would envy.
The stock needs to settle into a sideways or platform trend to pattern out some excessive pricing structure from last quarter. It reports May 30th and the trend implies that the report should meet or exceed estimates.
The previous Fundamental level is a Dark Pool Buy Zone, providing solid support. Pro traders followed that with a new pattern I call "the Nudge" which tends to lead upward momentum.
Study of Dark Pool Buy Zones: CRWDNASDAQ:CRWD reports out of season, June 4th. When outlined to eliminate the extreme price action, there is a clear sideways trend. This is a Dark Pool Buy Zone. When the stock moves outside of that zone, it recovers quickly back into the zone.
The huge Black candle was a gap up by HFTs on the last earnings report, followed by pros taking profits. Along with a lack of accumulation at that level, the stock whipsawed back down. The black candles thereafter were smaller funds selling on each bounce. Notice the tiny white candles that follow the black candles (see the orange arrows), patterns that reveal controlled, incremental buying against the selling.
This is a longer sideways trend with stronger support and more definition of the buy zone despite heavy interference from small funds selling in the past couple of months.
DIS Testing Fundamental SupportWhen Americans feel depressed or unhappy about life, they tend to spend more money on fun things--something to consider during a presidential election year.
For now, NYSE:DIS is looking fine for its earnings report next week. It was over-speculated, so adjusting back down closer to fundamental support is normal. The gap up in February was on way better than expected earnings, so that level should hold up well.
However, HFTs and MEME groups have been going gaga over earnings and other news. If HFTs or MEMEs drive it down, it will move right back up due to Dark Pool activity first, and then pro trader activity.
Trade like the pros in dark pools█ Trade like the pros in dark pools
If you're accustomed to trading on the stock exchange, you know that an exchange operates like a digitalized marketplace. Buyers and sellers gather around a stock and indicate what they're willing to trade for, hoping that two orders will match. Before you decide at what price you're willing to trade, you likely look at the order book depth. There, we see how many shares are seeking buyers or sellers at a specific price.
For a trade to be completed, the so-called spread needs to be crossed. The spread is the difference between the buying and selling price, in the example above 20 cents (226.40 – 226.20). In stocks that are traded very frequently, the spread is smaller and it's seldom a problem to execute very large volumes on the open market.
█ Dark pools simplify trading in small companies
Many stocks have too small a turnover to place a larger order without significantly affecting the price. Therefore, professionals have used dark pools for many years. Leading brokers are now making this flow available to all their customers. The advantage of a dark pool is that you don't need to show your order to other market participants until a trade has been completed. This facilitates, especially, trading in larger volumes.
Another advantage of dark pools is that trades are made at so-called midprice. Returning to the example above, a trade would occur when someone is willing to pay the full spread of 20 cents. Had the order book been a dark pool, the midprice would have been 226.30 SEK. In this way, it results in a better price for both buyers and sellers. For those trading in larger volumes, this can mean a lot of money.
█ All orders pass through dark pools
The fact that dark pools are now available to everyone does not mean that all orders should be placed there. In fact, there are several barriers to how much trading can be routed this way before the dark pool is temporarily limited.
When you place a regular order, thanks to so-called smart order routing, it will check if a better completion can be achieved via this dark pool than on the open market. So, whether you choose to actively place an order in the dark pool or not, you can benefit from the characteristics of the dark pool.
█ Shouldn't the exchange be completely open?
A criticism of dark pools is that they are exactly as they sound, hidden. But all trades made in Nasdaq Stockholm's dark pool are visible under completions. Stocks with low turnover can be difficult to trade without significantly affecting the price.
⚪ Let's take another example. Here we have a stock where the entire buy side corresponds to just over 130,000 SEK. That's a lot of money, but not an unreasonable holding for a private individual. This is also an order book from a company with a market value of about 1.6 billion. Thus, a small company, but not so small that trading for a couple of hundred thousand SEK should be unreasonable.
Here, the spread is also 30 cents. Which is over one (1) percent on this stock price. Being able to halve this cost can save a lot of money both directly and over time.
It is also possible to hide parts of an order today. In the advanced order placement on the open market, there is actually a tool for that problem as well. There, you can set the visible number of shares to be shown in the order book.
█ When you should use the dark pool
If you have never had problems with your order placement, you probably don't even need to consider placing an order in the dark pool. But if you trade stocks where you need to split your orders to not swallow too large a part of the order book, it might be valuable to try.
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Disclaimer
This is an educational study for entertainment purposes only.
The information in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on evaluating their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
BA Buy Zone Triggers Short-term ProsNYSE:BA is definitely below its current fundamentals for the 1st quarter of 2024. This was the biggest gain of all the Dow 30 components yesterday.
It was an obvious reversal point at a prior Buy Zone at October's lows. Yesterday was driven by pro traders with a run up at open rather than an HFT gap up at open. We can also see the pro trader nudge pattern in the candlesticks before yesterday's move up.
It may consolidate before running up, but this support level is now established for the next move up.
NTCT: Island Gap PotentialThere is an interesting phenomenon that occurs often: when a gap down of this size occurs, followed by a bottoming action and a large white candle forms, this often becomes an island gap. HFTs that gapped the stock down gap it up again.
The fact that the gap down candle is a huge white candle for this chart indicates that the gap down is below fundamental values and Dark Pools were the buyers against the HFT selling. The drop in Accumulation/Distribution at that time was smaller funds dumping which often triggers Dark Pool TWAPs. NASDAQ:NTCT has a high Percentage of Institutional Holdings at this time and it's a lower-priced stock in a pricey market.
FTNT: Dark Pool Buy Zone SupportNASDAQ:FTNT is a good example of a stock that had a big gap down that immediately filled due to falling below its fundamental level and a Dark Pool Buy Zone.
This and the sideways trading range developing on the long-term trend creates strong support for weathering any sympathy moves from other cybersecurity stocks that have been over-speculated.
Sideways action is likely to continue for a time, but AI-driven cybersecurity will only become more important in the years ahead and this stock is still at a decent price.
MSFT: The risks of selling shortNASDAQ:MSFT ran down yesterday but is reaching the low of the support today.
The next tier of support is outlined also from the Dec-Jan Buy Zone ahead of earnings season.
The risk day traders are taking selling short is if it runs below the low of the support and the Dark Pools surface to buy below its fundamental price level. This is why selling short is risky at this time. Support is around $397.
The big question is where are the lows for fundamental levels for the next quarterly report. MSFT had higher revenues with slightly lower earnings. The CFO did not adjust earnings. It could gap or run down on news, but fundamentals are not way below the current price.
AMZN Joins the Dow at an Unusual PhaseThis hugely influential company should have been on the Dow 10 years ago. Listing as a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average usually occurs when a company is about to enter a Market Saturation to Market Decline Phase. However, such is not the case with $NASDAQ:AMZN. It's quite the opposite.
Its fairly new CEO, who was the CEO of AWS, the division of AMZN known for its powerful and totally dominant PaaS cloud technology, has extensive experience in exactly what AMZN needs right now: front running new technologies and driving more new technologies to market introduction faster.
The challenge to be #1 in the use of Integrated Artificial Intelligence and other new technologies in the realm of Cloud Technology is on. Who will win depends on the CEO. Never underestimate the importance of the right CEO for the current market conditions.
The chart of AMZN stock implies a consolidation or platform may develop during the month and a half between earnings seasons. These patterns tend to form due to value-oriented quiet accumulation by the largest institutions while the rest of the market pulls back from buying or sells.
COIN Completes First Post-IPO BottomAs the first of its kind, this young company has a bright future.
Weekly chart: NASDAQ:COIN has completed its first post-IPO bottom formation and is holding above the completion line despite some selling down in recent weeks.
The company reports Feb 15th. The fundamentals are most likely at or near the bottom completion level. The run up became over-speculated so a minor correction is underway that can dip into the completion level, but support from the bottom formation is strong with Dark Pool buy zone patterns.
Fundamental Value Levels via Technical Analysis: GOOG ExampleNASDAQ:GOOG had a mega gap down on earnings news. The stock was simply over-speculated.
The price of this stock was way above the true fundamental values. So the stock gapped down to its current fundamental value level.
See the chart attached. The green rectangle outlines the last range where there were Dark Pool Buy Zones. Indicators like Accumulation/Distribution help to confirm a consistent level of accumulation.
Which Robotics Stocks Are You Watching?This stock's pattern is an intermediate-term trend correction to bottom formation that is near completion. It may head sideways for a bit, but when it does breakout of this consolidation, there is potential for swing style runs to develop.
A Dark Pool buy zone triggered at the bottom's lows. And there are Pro Trader footprints in each run out of a new low.
NYSE:ROK is in industrial automation, aka Robotics. There is a huge demand building for manufacturing via robotics in the US as many manufacturers are no longer reliant upon Chinese manufacturing, which has become more expensive in recent years. Robotics can easily displace human workers globally as it becomes more popular and used extensively. Hence, institutional holdings is quite high in this company. The So this stock may also be suitable for longer-term investment opportunity.
Dark Pool Buy Zones for Trading Momentum or VelocityDark Pool buy zones, identified with Relational Technical Analysis of the candlestick patterns and where they form in the long-term trend, along with indicators that reveal large-lot activity, are the key to preparing early for momentum to velocity runs for swing trading, position trading and even for planning long-term investments.
NYSE:CHWY is working on a bottom, finally basing and now starting to test the bottom completion level. This can be a strong resistance level where Pro Traders who started a swing trade from the lows are likely to take profits.
Often we see a sideways action develop at this level, the lows of which are usually confined by the support level built on the way up.
This would be the level to watch for the next buy entry signal. If it consolidates narrowly or briefly, then there is potential for a momentum swing trade. If it platforms a little wider but within the last support level, then a position trade entry can develop.
Looking Ahead to the 4th Quarter for $DISNYSE:DIS has been working on a bottom for a long time. The stock has moved up recently due to heavy buying of Dow components for the DIA and other ETFs which require Dow components.
Many Families are making Disney Resorts a holiday location this year.
The stock now faces stronger bottom completion resistance from the 2nd quarterly report, which sent the stock moving down further until this October.
The volume is very low recently, which is partly due to the holiday but also warns of weakening buyer activity at this price level.
However, there was Dark Pool accumulation in the base of the bottom, along with some Pro Trader activity evident in the candlestick and technical indicator patterns. This range now provides moderate to strong support.
Understanding the Role of HFTs and Dark Pools for Day TradingNASDAQ:TSLA reports on Wednesday of this week, October 18th. Last quarter, it had a gap down on its earnings news based on Year over Year comparisons which triggered High Frequency Trading (HFTs) to gap the stock down. Quarter over Quarter, however, NASDAQ:TSLA has shown consistent growth this year.
The problem with determining if the HFT gaps are likely to gap down or up on the next earnings report is the very low Percentage of Shares Held by Giant Buy-Side Institutions (PSHI). TSLA’s CEO has lost the necessary confidence of the largest Buy-Side Institutions in the world. So it's institutional interest is extremely low for such an important US company. The Buy-Side Institutions want the Board of Directors to replace Musk with someone who is more focused on TSLA to help it grow. The PSHI is likely to remain low until a new CEO is chosen.
The highest the PSHI has ever been was in July 2020 when it reached a high of 71%. It dropped to a low of 43% in November of 2021 and the stock has been sideways with very low PSHI ever since. It is very rare to see such low PSHI in a young new technology company with such high growth potential.
With less support from largest most influential institutions, the HFTs, which use retail news as one of their 6 primary algorithm triggers for automated orders as Maker/Takers, often gap a stock down on earnings news that was actually not negative.
Smaller Fund Managers, who have a special SEC classification with lower reporting requirements, often have VWAP automated orders trigger on high volume surges. This is often mistaken by smaller funds and retail investors or traders as “Dark Pool high volume activity,” when it is not.
High PSHI creates a natural liquidity draw and thus more momentum and speculative price action. This is missing much of the time for NASDAQ:TSLA stock price movement.
The current sideways trend has existed since 2021, best seen on a Weekly Chart. The dimensions of the sideways trend and the irregularity of the price range determines whether the sideways trend is a Long Term Wide Trading Range, a Short Term Trading Range, a Wide Sideways Trend, or a Platform-Building Sideways Trend. This is a Long Term Trading Range due to the inconsistent highs and lows.
This is common in a stock that has PSHI below 60%.
On a Daily Chart, the fundamentals currently are within the rectangular shape outlined below. This area of price can be problematic for retail day traders as there are always portfolio adjustments going on by the Buy-Side Institutions who have ETFs and Index funds with TSLA as a component.
When the stock drops below that Buy Zone range, it quickly reverses and runs up into the lows of that fundamental range. This becomes a price range where there is conflict between retail day traders trying to trade on news and the Buy-Side Institutions accumulating inventory shares of TSLA for the Indexes or ETF Trust accounts that must maintain a value close to the ETF or index value upon which that ETF is based.
What happens intraday is a very choppy and indecisive price action up and down that causes whipsaw losses for day trading.
In order to successfully day-trade TSLA, these factors must be understood to use to one's advantage. This requires an understanding of how to identify a Dark Pool Sell Zone or a Dark Pool Buy Zone within the daily charts. It also requires an understanding of how HFTs trigger and how VWAP orders often cause whipsaw action as well.
Remember that Dark Pool data is not available during the trading day. That data is on Over-the-Counter Alternative Transaction Systems. Those orders are filled off the exchanges and are not transmitted to the National Clearing Houses until after the market closes.
Hence, ALL retail day traders are trading against an invisible entity whose orders they can’t see even on Level 2 screens. The art of day trading in harmony with Dark Pool activity requires what I call "Relational Technical Analysis."
Dark Pool Buy Zone Signals: AEISNASDAQ:AEIS was one of the darlings of the '90s. So much fun to swing trade this stock. It is now moving up to test the all-time highs of 2021. Electronic Components are cyclical stocks typically with huge revenues ahead of holidays, school openings and summertime. The cycle is starting again.
Notice that Volume Oscillators and Money Flow indicators are rising from the bottom of the chart. This pattern has been very reliable in determining the end of the run down this year. Many stocks have this pattern at the moment. This signals the Buy Zone.
Semiconductors in Focus: Top or Not?NASDAQ:NVDA has shifted sideways since the huge earnings breakaway gap, a pattern that tends to provide strong support for profit-taking. Unlike NASDAQ:AMD , the trend doesn't appear to be at risk of shifting into a downtrend at this time.
While there has been some negative news pertaining to China for NVidia, the chart patterns don't indicate any concern from the largest Buy Side Institutions yet.
NVDA reports again near the end of August. By the end of this month, the big Buy Sides will have made adjustments to their holdings depending on their expectations for earnings, a time to watch for any shift in the technical patterns.
AMD reports early August. This short-term M top is at risk of testing support level highs below.
Battle of the New EV NASDAQ ComponentsLucid and Rivian, both new components of the NASDAQ:NDX , have been showing up on the High-Volume Institutional Activity recently.
NASDAQ:LCID has the beginnings of a bottom attempt developing with a Dark Pool buy zone emerging, but it's been slow-going for this EV company. Professional short-term trading is evident in the current run up, as it is in other EV companies this week, spurred by the bankruptcy of Lordstown Motors, many would say.
NASDAQ:RIVN has a clearer Dark Pool buy zone developing at this bottoming level with the same Pro Trader footprint in the current run up. This type of bottom formation provides a sturdier support level--evidence of more conviction from the institutions?
Both stocks have a lot of work to do to complete their bottoms for more than short-term trading at this time. Resistance AND competition are heavy ahead, as it's still early days in the race to dominance in EV Auto Manufacturing.
BKNG: Hidden Accumulation CuesThe big season for vacations starts this week as schools close, graduations begin, weddings increase, and families plan big vacations this year.
BKNG has had HFTs attempting to sell it down several times but it holds within a sideways trend still. This implies hidden accumulation.
If it breaks to the upside, then this sideways trend becomes support.
BKNG must do as all other high-priced stocks have done: do a big split to lower the share price to $100 - 300. When the Board does so, the stock has more potential for runs up rather than down.
Did you miss NVDA's move? What now?NVDA's gap up on a stellar earnings report should NOT have been a surprise, as the chart has been showing strength since January when I mentioned it in my Morning Reports. It was completing the bottom at that time.
The trend upward was showing pro traders in control of price after Dark Pool quiet accumulation. It has 64% of the shares held by institutions, which is normal for a giant-cap stock. It should actually be a Dow 30 component rather than INTC but, alas, that won't happen for a while.
NVDA stair-stepped upward. This is probably one of the hardest trendline patterns to see without rectangles drawn around the step, but one of the most important to recognize professional buyer dominance.
What now? The gains are now extreme. And the pros are taking profits. That means there is very high risk for buying at this moment.
CAN it move higher? Of course! Euphoric retail buying can easily drive prices upward further for a short period of time. Just remember that without institutional buying at this level, any upside from here may be short-lived.