Compression of volatility leads to hypervolatilityOver the next 48 hours, we may see large moves in FX.
At present we have a compression of volatility (see currency strength chart).
This suggests that volatility will increase over the next day or so.
The trade here is:
Trade in the direction of price action and hold the trade.
A trend following strategy will work better than a mean reversion approach.
Currencystrength
NZDCHF: Waiting for the uptrend to resumeIn this pair we see a clear uptrend, and a pullback to support.
The price is over the weekly pivot, I drew two Tom Demark trendlines showing where I expect it to break.
A safer bet long would be on the breach of the daily pivot with a stop below even handle support at 0.7700.
Daily currency relative strength shows USD and NZD on top, with JPY closely following them.
Weakest currencies are from bottom to top: AUD, CHF, EUR and CAD.
Best setups will occur taking entries from 4h in the most imbalanced pairs.
I'll add more info in the comments when I open a position in this pair and every time I scale in.
Hope everyone has a great week, and a great year!